London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Feb 27, 2026

'The worst is yet to come': IMF says 2023 will 'feel like a recession'

'The worst is yet to come': IMF says 2023 will 'feel like a recession'

More than a third of the global economy will contract in 2023, as the three largest economies - the US, the EU, and China—will continue to stall, the International Monetary Fund's analyses of global economic developments says.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted a tough 2023 as it cut growth predictions and forecast economic contraction in a third of the world.

"The worst is yet to come," the global financial institution's World Economic Outlook report said.

"For many people 2023 will feel like a recession," it added.

A downward revision of the global growth rate for 2023, from the amount the IMF said it expected in July, has been made in the report.

Now, 2.7% growth is expected next year. It's down from the 6% growth experienced last year and the 3.2% growth forecast for this year.

This is the "weakest growth profile" since 2001, excluding the acute phase of COVID-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis, the IMF said.

It reflects "significant slowdowns" for the largest economies as America's gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in the first half of 2022, followed by the Euro area's contraction in the second half of 2022, and prolonged COVID-19 outbreaks and lockdowns in China with a growing property sector crisis.


"The world is in a volatile period: economic, geopolitical, and ecological changes all impact the global outlook," the report says.

While the IMF issued a warning to the UK, following the mini-budget market turmoil, this World Economic Outlook report was completed prior to the chancellor's mini-budget announcement, so does not reflect the ensuing market activity.

Nevertheless, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told reporters that the government should ensure its tax and spending plans are in line with the Bank of England's inflation-fighting remit.

"Fiscal policy should be aligned with monetary policy," he said when asked about Britain's economic situation and the turmoil in its government bond market.

"Central banks are trying to tighten monetary policy, and if you have at the same time fiscal authorities that try to stimulate aggregate demand, it's like having a car with two people in the front... each trying to steer the car in a different direction. That's not going to work very well."

The future health of the global economy relies on the "successful calibration" of monetary policy, the course of the war in Ukraine, and the possibility of further pandemic-related supply-side disruptions, for example, in China.

Inflation could also continue to worsen as more energy and food price shocks cause it to persist for longer.

About a third of the world economy faces two consecutive quarters of negative growth, the IMF also forecast.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Government Reaches Framework Agreement on Release of Mandelson Vetting Files
UK Police Contracts With Israeli Surveillance Firms Spark Debate Over Ethics and Oversight
United Airlines Passenger Hears Cockpit Conversations After Accessing In-Flight Audio Channel
Spain to Conduct Border Checks on Gibraltar Arrivals Under New Post-Brexit Framework
Engie Shares Jump After $14 Billion Agreement to Acquire UK Power Grid Assets
BNP Paribas Overtakes Goldman Sachs in UK Investment Banking League Tables
Geothermal Project to Power Ten Thousand Homes Marks UK Renewable Energy Milestone
UK Visa Grants Drop Nineteen Percent in 2025 as Migration Controls Tighten
Barclays and Jefferies Among Banks Exposed to Collapse of UK Mortgage Lender MFS
UK Asylum Applications Edge Down in 2025 Despite Rise in Small Boat Crossings
Jefferies Reports Significant Exposure After Collapse of UK Lender MFS
FTSE 100 Reaches Fresh Record Highs as Major Share Buybacks and Earnings Lift London Stocks
So, what's happened is, I think, government policy, not just under Labour, but under the Conservatives as well, has driven a lot of small landlords out of business.
Larry Summers, the former U.S. Treasury Secretary, is resigning from Harvard University as fallout continues over his ties to Jeffrey Epstein.
U.S. stocks ended higher on Wednesday, with the Dow gaining about six-tenths of a percent, the S&P 500 adding eight-tenths of a percent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq climbing roughly one-and-a-quarter percent.
From fears of AI-fuelled unemployment to Big Tech's record investment, this is AI Weekly.
Apple just dropped iOS 26.4.
US Lawmakers Seek Briefing from UK Over Reported Encryption Order Directed at Apple
UK Business Secretary Calls on EU to Remove Trade Barriers Hindering Growth
Legal Pathways for Removing Prince Andrew from Britain’s Line of Succession Examined
PM Netanyahu welcome India PM Narendra Modi to Israel
Shadow Diplomacy: How Harry and Meghan’s Jordan Trip Undermines the Monarchy
Sir Jim Ratcliffe, co-owner of Manchester United, comments on immigration in the UK.
Bill Gates, the UN and the WEF are attempting to construct "a giant digital gulag for all of humanity" via digital ID, CBDCs and vaccine passport infrastructure.
Britain’s Channel Crisis: Paying Billions While the Boats Keep Coming
Downing Street’s Veteran Deception Scandal
UK HealthCare Expands ‘Food as Health’ Initiative Statewide to Tackle Chronic Illness in Kentucky
Leonardo Chief Says UK Set to Decide on New Medium Helicopter Programme
UK Slows Chagos Islands Agreement After Concerns Raised in Washington
European and UK Stock Markets Reach Fresh Highs as Banks and Miners Lead Rally
UK Government Insists Chagos Islands Negotiations Continue After Minister’s ‘Pause’ Remark
No Confirmed Deal for Engie to Acquire UK Power Networks Amid Market Speculation
UK Reaffirms Updated Entry Requirements for Travellers as of February 25, 2026
General Atlantic to sell equity stake in ByteDance, valuing the company at $550 billion
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz Secures Pledge from China for Greater Imports of Quality Goods
Lord Mandelson Condemns Arrest as Driven by ‘Baseless Suggestion’ He Would Flee Abroad
Former UK Ambassador Released on Bail Following Arrest in Epstein-Linked Investigation
UK Parliament Orders Release of Former Prince Andrew’s Government Vetting Files
Reddit Fined £14 Million by UK Regulator Over Failures in Age Verification Controls
UK Moves to Tighten Regulation of Netflix, Disney+ and Prime Video Under New Media Rules
British Woman Who Reported Rape in Hong Kong Faces Possible Prosecution
'Christianity is the religion that has made this country great.'
Man Receives Parking Ticket 38 Years After Offense: ‘City Officials Said It’s Legitimate’
Woman Receives Gift Card for Christmas – Discovers It Is ‘Worth’ 63,000,000,000,000,000 Pounds
UK Sanctions New Zealand Insurer Maritime Mutual Following Allegations Over Russian Oil Cover
Reform MP Danny Kruger Condemns UK’s ‘Unregulated Sexual Economy’ in Call for Tougher Controls
The Show Must Go On: Prince William and Kate Middleton Shine at the BAFTAs Amid Andrew’s Arrest
UK Sanctions Russian ‘Illicit Oil Traders’ After Email Blunder Exposes Sanctions Evasion Network
Russia Amplifies Baseless Claims That UK and France Plan to Arm Ukraine with Nuclear Weapons
UK Imposes Sanctions on Two Georgian Television Channels Over Alleged Russian Disinformation
×