London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Monday, Jan 26, 2026

The PM is safe for now – but the vote is hardly a ringing endorsement

The PM is safe for now – but the vote is hardly a ringing endorsement

Analysis: With 148 votes against him, the task of governing is likely to become more, not less difficult in the months ahead

Boris Johnson’s allies had always said about the vote of no confidence that victory by just one vote was still a win, and he would remain in Downing Street and get on with delivering “the people’s priorities”.

They will no doubt be cracking opening the bubbly on Monday evening. But the truth is that with 148 votes against him, the task of governing is likely to become more, not less difficult in the weeks and months ahead.

As rebel MPs determined to oust him are likely to point out at the earliest opportunity, those 148 rebels dramatically outnumber Johnson’s working majority of 75.


While they are not a coherent group of zealots, of the kind that ultimately saw off Theresa May over Brexit policy, his detractors do share a set of concerns they may now feel emboldened to pursue more vocally – including by withholding their support in the voting lobbies.

Some are irked by the fact the government is on a trajectory towards the highest tax burden since Clement Attlee was in power.

Others have spoken out in recent months about the illiberal nature of Johnson’s government, which has become more marked in recent months as he tried to appease the right wing of his party after his position appeared under threat in January.

The former minister Jesse Norman – biographer of the Conservative intellectual hero Edmund Burke – pointed in his blistering letter on Monday to the plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda, and the ban on noisy protests.

Yet more MPs are frustrated at the sense of drift and indecision in the face of a mounting economic crisis – or simply fear for their seats, with a party leader the public appear to be firmly convinced is a proven liar.

Johnson did little to win over the latter group at Monday’s 1922 Committee meeting, where he appeared unrepentant about Partygate, even telling MPs he would attend boozy lockdown leaving bashes again.

Afterwards, one ally delivered an extraordinarily tone deaf briefing to waiting journalists, asking them: “Is there anyone here who hasn’t got pissed in their lives? Is there anyone here who doesn’t like a glass of wine to decompress?”

It is just possible that the bullish Johnson is not feeling as bloody-minded as the briefing suggests, and after the humiliation of being booed outside St Paul’s on Friday, his fragile ego could finally get the better of him and prompt him to resign.

But most colleagues believe he is likely to remain in Downing Street, hoping to bulldoze his way through to the next general election.

Just as Theresa May survived a no-confidence vote in December 2018 but found herself driven out of office a few months later, however, Johnson’s win is unlikely to quell the ferment in his deeply unhappy party.

Indeed, his margin of victory was narrower than May’s: the 211 votes he won represent 59% of the parliamentary party – a smaller proportion than the 63% she secured. Take out the payroll vote of about 130 MPs, and he won the support of just 80-odd backbenchers, against 148 who rejected his leadership. To put it more simply: 41% of Johnson’s MPs no longer have confidence in him.

And there are significant hurdles ahead, not least a pair of challenging byelections on 23 June, in Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton, both of which the Conservatives fear they could lose, the former to Labour and the latter, to the Lib Dems.

Given the narrowness of his victory, Johnson’s cabinet colleagues could yet decide in the coming days that it would be for the good of the party if he resigned – though it would be a moot point whether he would do so, even then.

Or if the party’s standing in the polls continues to worsen in the coming months, backbench MPs could also urge the 1922 Committee to change the leadership contest rules, to make it possible to attempt to topple him again within a year – particularly if one of more of the putative challengers are ready to go.

Meanwhile, though, Johnson is likely to continue to face low-level guerrilla warfare from disgruntled backbenchers, of the kind that ultimately made May’s life in Downing Street all but impossible.

So for the time being, Johnson is safe – but the outcome is anything but a ringing endorsement of the man who led his party to a crushing electoral victory, little more than two years ago.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Greenland’s NATO Stress Test: Coercion, Credibility, and the New Arctic Bargaining Game
Diego Garcia and the Chagos Dispute: When Decolonization Collides With Alliance Power
Trump Claims “Total” U.S. Access to Greenland as NATO Weighs Arctic Basing Rights and Deterrence
Air France and KLM Suspend Multiple Middle East Routes as Regional Tensions Disrupt Aviation
U.S. winter storm triggers 13,000-plus flight cancellations and 160,000 power outages
Poland delays euro adoption as Domański cites $1tn economy and zloty advantage
White House: Trump warns Canada of 100% tariff if Carney finalizes China trade deal
PLA opens CMC probe of Zhang Youxia, Liu Zhenli over Xi authority and discipline violations
ICE and DHS immigration raids in Minneapolis: the use-of-force accountability crisis in mass deportation enforcement
UK’s Starmer and Trump Agree on Urgent Need to Bolster Arctic Security
Starmer Breaks Diplomatic Restraint With Firm Rebuke of Trump, Seizing Chance to Advocate for Europe
UK Finance Minister Reeves to Join Starmer on China Visit to Bolster Trade and Economic Ties
Prince Harry Says Sacrifices of NATO Forces in Afghanistan Deserve ‘Respect’ After Trump Remarks
Barron Trump Emerges as Key Remote Witness in UK Assault and Rape Trial
Nigel Farage Attended Davos 2026 Using HP Trust Delegate Pass Linked to Sasan Ghandehari
Gold Jumps More Than 8% in a Week as the Dollar Slides Amid Greenland Tariff Dispute
BlackRock Executive Rick Rieder Emerges as Leading Contender to Succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair
Boston Dynamics Atlas humanoid robot and LG CLOiD home robot: the platform lock-in fight to control Physical AI
United States under President Donald Trump completes withdrawal from the World Health Organization: health sovereignty versus global outbreak early-warning access
FBI and U.S. prosecutors vs Ryan Wedding’s transnational cocaine-smuggling network: the fight over witness-killing and cross-border enforcement
Trump Administration’s Iran Military Buildup and Sanctions Campaign Puts Deterrence Credibility on the Line
Apple and OpenAI Chase Screenless AI Wearables as the Post-iPhone Interface Battle Heats Up
Tech Brief: AI Compute, Chips, and Platform Power Moves Driving Today’s Market Narrative
NATO’s Stress Test Under Trump: Alliance Credibility, Burden-Sharing, and the Fight Over Strategic Territory
OpenAI’s Money Problem: Explosive Growth, Even Faster Costs, and a Race to Stay Ahead
Trump Reverses Course and Criticises UK-Mauritius Chagos Islands Agreement
Elizabeth Hurley Tells UK Court of ‘Brutal’ Invasion of Privacy in Phone Hacking Case
UK Bond Yields Climb as Report Fuels Speculation Over Andy Burnham’s Return to Parliament
America’s Venezuela Oil Grip Meets China’s Demand: Market Power, Legal Shockwaves, and the New Rules of Energy Leverage
TikTok’s U.S. Escape Plan: National Security Firewall or Political Theater With a Price Tag?
Trump’s Board of Peace: Breakthrough Diplomacy or a Hostile Takeover of Global Order?
Trump’s Board of Peace: Breakthrough Diplomacy or a Hostile Takeover of Global Order?
The Greenland Gambit: Economic Genius or Political Farce?
The Greenland Gambit: Economic Genius or Political Farce?
The Greenland Gambit: Economic Genius or Political Farce?
Will AI Finally Make Blue-Collar Workers Rich—or Is This Just Elite Tech Spin?
Prince William to Make Official Visit to Saudi Arabia in February
Prince Harry Breaks Down in London Court, Says UK Tabloids Have Made Meghan Markle’s Life ‘Absolute Misery’
Malin + Goetz UK Business Enters Administration, All Stores Close
EU and UK Reject Trump’s Greenland-Linked Tariff Threats and Pledge Unified Response
UK Deepfake Crackdown Puts Intense Pressure on Musk’s Grok AI After Surge in Non-Consensual Explicit Images
Prince Harry Becomes Emotional in London Court, Invokes Memory of Princess Diana in Testimony Against UK Tabloids
UK Inflation Rises Unexpectedly but Interest Rate Cuts Still Seen as Likely
AI vs Work: The Battle Over Who Controls the Future of Labor
Buying an Ally’s Territory: Strategic Genius or Geopolitical Breakdown?
AI Everywhere: Power, Money, War, and the Race to Control the Future
Trump vs the World Order: Disruption Genius or Global Arsonist?
Trump vs the World Order: Disruption Genius or Global Arsonist?
Trump vs the World Order: Disruption Genius or Global Arsonist?
Trump vs the World Order: Disruption Genius or Global Arsonist?
×