London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Saturday, Mar 07, 2026

The PM is safe for now – but the vote is hardly a ringing endorsement

The PM is safe for now – but the vote is hardly a ringing endorsement

Analysis: With 148 votes against him, the task of governing is likely to become more, not less difficult in the months ahead

Boris Johnson’s allies had always said about the vote of no confidence that victory by just one vote was still a win, and he would remain in Downing Street and get on with delivering “the people’s priorities”.

They will no doubt be cracking opening the bubbly on Monday evening. But the truth is that with 148 votes against him, the task of governing is likely to become more, not less difficult in the weeks and months ahead.

As rebel MPs determined to oust him are likely to point out at the earliest opportunity, those 148 rebels dramatically outnumber Johnson’s working majority of 75.


While they are not a coherent group of zealots, of the kind that ultimately saw off Theresa May over Brexit policy, his detractors do share a set of concerns they may now feel emboldened to pursue more vocally – including by withholding their support in the voting lobbies.

Some are irked by the fact the government is on a trajectory towards the highest tax burden since Clement Attlee was in power.

Others have spoken out in recent months about the illiberal nature of Johnson’s government, which has become more marked in recent months as he tried to appease the right wing of his party after his position appeared under threat in January.

The former minister Jesse Norman – biographer of the Conservative intellectual hero Edmund Burke – pointed in his blistering letter on Monday to the plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda, and the ban on noisy protests.

Yet more MPs are frustrated at the sense of drift and indecision in the face of a mounting economic crisis – or simply fear for their seats, with a party leader the public appear to be firmly convinced is a proven liar.

Johnson did little to win over the latter group at Monday’s 1922 Committee meeting, where he appeared unrepentant about Partygate, even telling MPs he would attend boozy lockdown leaving bashes again.

Afterwards, one ally delivered an extraordinarily tone deaf briefing to waiting journalists, asking them: “Is there anyone here who hasn’t got pissed in their lives? Is there anyone here who doesn’t like a glass of wine to decompress?”

It is just possible that the bullish Johnson is not feeling as bloody-minded as the briefing suggests, and after the humiliation of being booed outside St Paul’s on Friday, his fragile ego could finally get the better of him and prompt him to resign.

But most colleagues believe he is likely to remain in Downing Street, hoping to bulldoze his way through to the next general election.

Just as Theresa May survived a no-confidence vote in December 2018 but found herself driven out of office a few months later, however, Johnson’s win is unlikely to quell the ferment in his deeply unhappy party.

Indeed, his margin of victory was narrower than May’s: the 211 votes he won represent 59% of the parliamentary party – a smaller proportion than the 63% she secured. Take out the payroll vote of about 130 MPs, and he won the support of just 80-odd backbenchers, against 148 who rejected his leadership. To put it more simply: 41% of Johnson’s MPs no longer have confidence in him.

And there are significant hurdles ahead, not least a pair of challenging byelections on 23 June, in Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton, both of which the Conservatives fear they could lose, the former to Labour and the latter, to the Lib Dems.

Given the narrowness of his victory, Johnson’s cabinet colleagues could yet decide in the coming days that it would be for the good of the party if he resigned – though it would be a moot point whether he would do so, even then.

Or if the party’s standing in the polls continues to worsen in the coming months, backbench MPs could also urge the 1922 Committee to change the leadership contest rules, to make it possible to attempt to topple him again within a year – particularly if one of more of the putative challengers are ready to go.

Meanwhile, though, Johnson is likely to continue to face low-level guerrilla warfare from disgruntled backbenchers, of the kind that ultimately made May’s life in Downing Street all but impossible.

So for the time being, Johnson is safe – but the outcome is anything but a ringing endorsement of the man who led his party to a crushing electoral victory, little more than two years ago.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Starmer Defends UK Role in Iran Conflict After Renewed Criticism from President Trump
Blue Owl Reveals £36 Million Exposure After Collapse of UK Lender Serving Wealthy Clients
UK Asylum Reform Plan Triggers Fierce Debate Over Border Control and Humanitarian Impact
US Stealth Bombers Head to UK Base as Trump Issues Stark Warning to Iran
UK Deputy Prime Minister Says Legal Case Could Exist for British Strikes on Iranian Missile Sites
Investigators Link Mysterious Parcel Fires Across Europe to Russian Intelligence Operation
Debate Intensifies Over Britain’s Legal Justification for US Military Operations Launched From UK Bases
Britain Faces Heightened Energy Price Risks as Iran-Linked Tensions Threaten Global Oil and Gas Supplies
British Counter-Terror Police Arrest Four Suspected of Spying on Jewish Community for Iran
Axel Springer Agrees $770 Million Deal to Acquire Britain’s Daily Telegraph
Iceland Supermarket Drops Trademark Challenge Against Icelandic Government in Long-Running Naming Dispute
UK Defence Secretary Visits Cyprus Following Scrutiny of Britain’s Response to Drone Attacks
Questions Grow Over Britain’s Military Readiness as Response to Iran Conflict Draws Scrutiny
UK Offers Failed Asylum Seeker Families Up to Forty Thousand Pounds to Leave Voluntarily
Saharan Dust Could Bring ‘Blood Rain’ to Parts of the UK as Weather Systems Shift
UK Deploys Additional Typhoon Fighter Jets to Qatar and Helicopters to Cyprus Amid Rising Middle East Tensions
Experts Urge Britain to Accelerate Renewable Energy Push as Global Conflicts Drive Up Costs
British Public Shows Strong Reluctance to Join Wider War in Iran
First UK Evacuation Flight Departs Middle East After Lengthy Delay
United Kingdom Imposes New Visa Requirements on Travelers from St. Lucia and Nicaragua
Iran Conflict Strains U.S.–U.K. Alliance as Trump and Starmer Clash Over Military Strategy
UK Interest Rates Could Rise Above Four Percent Again if Energy Shock Continues, Think Tank Warns
Starmer Defends Britain’s Iran Strategy as Badenoch Urges Stronger Military Support
Labour MP Says She Saw No Sign Husband Broke Law After Arrest in China Espionage Investigation
UK Jobless Rate Overtakes Italy’s for First Time in Years as Labour Market Weakens
United Kingdom Suspends Student Visas for Four Countries in Unprecedented Immigration Move
Campaigners Warn UK Student Visa Ban Could Push Migrants Toward Dangerous Channel Crossings
First U.K. Charter Flight for Stranded Nationals Set to Depart Oman Amid Middle East Crisis
France and United Kingdom Deploy Warships to Eastern Mediterranean as Middle East Conflict Escalates
U.K. Arrests Three Men Including Lawmaker’s Partner in Suspected China Espionage Investigation
Trump Says UK–US ‘Special Relationship’ Is Diminished Amid Middle East Dispute
UK Economic Forecasts Face Fresh Strain from Middle East Conflict and Rising Energy Costs
UK Reaffirms Close US Ties After Trump’s Public Criticism
Reeves Stresses Stability and Fiscal Discipline in UK Budget Update as Growth Outlook Shifts
UK Deploys Royal Navy Destroyer HMS Dragon to Cyprus After Drone Strike on RAF Base
Green Party Surges Past Labour in New UK Poll as Traditional Party Support Crumbles
Majority of Britons Oppose U.S. Use of UK Military Bases in Iran Conflict
UK Intensifies Evacuation Efforts from Oman, Working with Airlines to Boost Flight Capacity
Trump Condemns UK and Spain in Unusually Sharp Rift Over Iran Military Action
Trump Repeats UK Claims That Diverge from Verified Facts Amid Diplomatic Strain
UK Arrests Prominent Figures Linked to Epstein Network as Questions Mount Over US Action
Trump Says UK ‘Took Far Too Long’ to Approve Use of Airbases for Iran Strikes
Scope of Britain’s Role in the Expanding Middle East Conflict Comes Under Scrutiny
Trump Says He Is ‘Very Disappointed’ in Starmer Over Iran Comments
U.S. Embassy in Riyadh Struck by Drones Amid Escalating Iran Conflict
Starmer Confronts Strategic Test After Drone Strike Near British Base in Cyprus
Rolls-Royce Chief Signals Openness to Germany Joining UK-Led Fighter Jet Programme
UK Stocks Slip as Escalating Iran Conflict Triggers Global Market Selloff
UK Overhauls Asylum System to Make Refugee Status Temporary
Starmer Warns of ‘Reckless’ Iranian Strikes Amid Escalating Regional Tensions
×