London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Sep 24, 2026

Sunak deal with EU is all about leadership now - Kuenssberg

Sunak deal with EU is all about leadership now - Kuenssberg

A deal between London and Brussels is close - but can Rishi Sunak push it through?

"It's all about leadership now" - it is not, any longer, according to that particular diplomatic source, about the finer details of customs posts; the never-ending tangle of whether it's UK or EU law that's supreme; or whether a sausage that's been made in Bolton needs to be inspected if it is going to be sold in Belfast.

A deal on the Northern Ireland Protocol is so close that the negotiating teams have been consulting the thesaurus to help pick a name, in scenes reminiscent of the '80s political comedy, "Yes Minister".

Sorting out the protocol - those post-Brexit trading arrangements - matters practically if you live in or do business with Northern Ireland.

And it matters symbolically a great deal for Rishi Sunak and the government, eager for this bitter hangover from the Brexit negotiations to fade.

The agreement, whatever it ends up being named, is broadly done, and likely to be unveiled on Monday.

One Whitehall source says there's been a "very disciplined approach to solving the problems"; now an arrangement has been struck that "unambiguously works" after weeks of working through the issues.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak


But that painstaking practical negotiation could come to naught if it's not matched with political force.

It's in the constitution of some ranks of the Conservative backbenches and some parts of the Northern Irish Unionist DUP to be suspicious of what emanates from any group in charge in Number 10.

Add in the fact that many on the Eurosceptic wing of the Tory party are, politely put, not natural supporters of Mr Sunak.

Some, like the former leader Iain Duncan Smith and the DUP's Sammy Wilson, have been setting tests for the deal before they know for sure what's in the final version - easier perhaps then to cry foul later on.

It is rarely possible to please all of the people all of the time. But on the issue of Brexit and Northern Ireland, it is near impossible.

A diplomat says, "the government simply needs to push it forward, knowing that part of the DUP will not be pleased" - so the question is whether Mr Sunak's push to get a deal through is stronger than the resistance it will inevitably find along the way.

Number 10's handling of the matter so far could make that harder. Mr Sunak is not the first prime minister to preside over a "will they, won't they?" phase during talks with the EU.

But while a deal's been in the offing, there's been something of a vacuum, giving space for critics to opine.

Notably it's given time for Boris Johnson to pile in too, making clear in the last few days that his support won't come easy. He's still a totem for Brexit, and is becoming a rallying point for Mr Sunak's critics.

As the Whitehall source says, "the key dynamic which is emerging is that Boris is throwing himself to the forefront of the opposition" - that won't make the prime minister's life any easier.

Irony alert - remember that Boris Johnson was the prime minister who signed up to the Northern Ireland Protocol in the first place.

Former PM Boris Johnson has been weighing in on the NI Protocol


And it's worth noting that the deal thought to be on offer concedes far more ground to the UK than was thought possible then.

In fact, one member of Theresa May's team told me they would have "bitten your arm off" for the kind of arrangements that are now in play.

There is a likely acceptance of different customs routes, "green lanes" and "red lanes" for goods heading from Great Britain to Northern Ireland; it's likely too the EU has given ground on state aid.

But like it or not, for Rishi Sunak's Number 10, when his old boss speaks, many Conservatives and Brexiteers listen.

Don't be surprised to see, in the coming days, heated political arguments contrasting the agreements that Mr Sunak has reached, and the Northern Ireland Protocol bill that Boris Johnson's government introduced.

That bill is making its way through Parliament now and would, controversially, give the UK government the power to ignore the treaty that's already signed into law.

And don't underestimate the strength of feeling.

One former cabinet minister told me the expected deal would "let down the die-hard leavers", leaving the party vulnerable to attacks from the right, and would "split the Conservatives".

Unless there is a "miracle surprise", the same source cautioned that they and many of their colleagues won't back the deal.

The options for Mr Sunak then are that the deal passes (if there is a vote) "grudgingly", or if it falls, "it leaves his authority in tatters".

It is even, they suggest, a "conceivable option" that the government ends up falling apart if the prime minister tries to ram it through. All this, of course, is happening in the context of a PM stuck way behind in the polls.

There was also disbelief in some quarters at the suggestion that the EU president would appear alongside the King to help boost the chances of a deal.

Buckingham Palace, as a rule, tries to appear beyond politics, well above the fray.

Yet there was the suggestion that Ursula von der Leyen would meet publicly with the King this weekend at Windsor Castle, and even that the deal itself might be given the title the Windsor Agreement - to "throw a bit of glamour" around the closing stages, a source suggested.

But I'm told the European Commission disapproved. Downing Street says officially that the reason the visit was called off was "operational".

Whatever the whole truth, it's made for a messy 24 hours since our colleagues at Sky News broke the story. And it met with disapproval in the very DUP circles that the prime minister needs to get on board.

The Unionists are deeply committed to, and proud of, the monarchy. Arlene Foster, the former DUP leader, was rarely seen without her glittering brooch in the shape of the crown. But the impression that Downing Street was trying to play the Palace into the process has rankled.

Former DUP leader Arlene Foster wearing her favoured crown brooch


The DUP former deputy leader, Lord Dodds, said, "to plan for politicising the monarchy in this way is very serious and reinforces the questions about No 10's political judgement over the protocol".

That doesn't sound like a political leader in the mood to play nice.

We know that Rishi Sunak has been able to find a way to strike an agreement with the EU to help ease the problems that stemmed from the special arrangements for Northern Ireland.

We know Number 10 has been willing to spend political energy and effort getting this far.

But once the black and white of the deal emerges into the light of day, political guile, presentation and force may be required to drive it through.

So far in Downing Street, Rishi Sunak has tried to avoid fights with his party. This time, on this most fraught of issues, an almighty argument awaits.


Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Royal Navy Commandos Complete Maritime Operations Training With US Navy SEALs
Vistry Profit Warning Adds to Concerns Over UK Housebuilding Conditions
UK Commits £343 Million to Major Expansion of Community Mental Health Services
Five Eyes Partners Back UK-Led Campaign Against Global Fraud Networks
UK Businesses Gain Full Access to £13 Trillion CPTPP Trading Bloc
UK Allocates Nearly £10 Billion for Council, Social and Affordable Housing
Chancellor John Healey Unveils Deregulation Drive to Accelerate UK Investment and Growth
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Sets Out Post-Brexit Foreign Policy Vision at United Nations
UK Reassesses Chagos Arrangements as Burnham Seeks New Path on Diego Garcia
Key Trends to Watch
Government’s “Buy British” Procurement Push Targets More Domestic Jobs and Industrial Capacity
Scotland Launches Four-Year Flood Resilience Programme With New Community Funding
Low-Income Renters Face Record Gap Between Housing Support and Private Rents
UK and US Test Torpedo Launch From British Undersea Drone in Defence Technology Milestone
Britain Pushes Artificial Intelligence Security Onto United Nations Security Council Agenda
Treasury Committee Defends Office for Budget Responsibility Independence Amid Fiscal Pressure
Scotland Records Eleven Per Cent Rise in Drug-Use Deaths as Cocaine and Nitazenes Drive Concern
Welsh Government Sets Four-Year Programme Around Health, Living Costs, Jobs and Housing
Study Finds Most People With High Blood Pressure in England Remain Undiagnosed
Britain Plans First National Workplace Health System to Tackle Economic Inactivity
England to Introduce Vocational GCSEs in Major Secondary Education Reform
UK Elevates Climate and Nature Risks to National Security Priority
Andy Burnham and Donald Trump Put Trade at Centre of First Major Bilateral Meeting
Andy Burnham and Ursula von der Leyen Push Ahead With Closer UK-European Union Economic Ties
UK Government Borrowing Jumps to Eighteen Point Three Billion Pounds Ahead of October Budget
Piddington Residents Back Symbolic Independence Vote Over Asylum Accommodation Plan
Reform UK Names Helen Jenner as New Leader in Wales
England Expands Devolution of Transport, Skills and Economic Development Powers
Liberal Democrats Call for Temporary Fuel Duty Cut to Ease Cost-of-Living Pressure
UK Farmers Warn Drought Has Caused Crop Failures and Reduced Harvests
UK Fixed Mortgage Rates Approach 6% as Lenders Raise Borrowing Costs
YouGov Poll Puts Labour at 23% With Conservatives and Reform UK on 21%
Badenoch Presses Burnham to Increase Defence Spending and Cut Welfare Costs
UK Military Figures Warn of Growing Threats to Undersea Infrastructure and National Readiness
BP Moves Ahead With Sale of UK North Sea Oil and Gas Business
UK and ASEAN Endorse New Framework for Trade and Economic Cooperation
UK Consumer Confidence Falls to Three-Year Low as Borrowing Costs and Job Concerns Rise
UK Inflation Rises to 3.1% as Motor Fuel Costs Push Prices Higher
Bank of England Sets Multi-Year Plan to Wind Down Quantitative Easing Holdings
UK Borrowing Rises to £18.3 Billion in August Ahead of October Budget
Michelin Guide Faces Industry Questions Over Restaurant Inspection Coverage
English Woodlands Face Renewed Weather Stress From Dry Conditions and Strong Winds
Research Finds Extensive Alcohol, Gambling and Unhealthy Food Branding During 2026 World Cup
Five Charged After Newborn Baby Dies From Stab Wounds in Sheffield
BT Could Reap £2 Billion From Recycling Copper as Full-Fibre Network Expands
FCA Urges Young Adults to Trace £1.5 Billion in Unclaimed Child Trust Funds
Reform UK Names Helen Jenner as New Leader in Wales After Dan Thomas Steps Down
Resolution Foundation Calls for Broad-Based Tax Rises to Fund Higher UK Defence Spending
Ed Davey Calls for Global Treaty to Halt Development of Super-Intelligent AI
Scotland Consults on Legal Price Caps for Essential Foods
×