London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Jul 08, 2026

Sir John Curtice: The man who gets elections right

Sir John Curtice: The man who gets elections right

Voters across the UK go to the polls in local and Northern Ireland Assembly elections this Thursday. The man who calls the results, and informs the country about the state of politics based on voting, reveals how he does it.

When Professor Sir John Curtice pronounces on elections, politicians and pundits listen.

Knighted in 2017, he is perhaps the only psephologist in the UK who is routinely, albeit reluctantly, recognised in the street.

"I live with it," he says. "I don't live for it."

As 10pm chimes on the final Thursday of a general election, the last voters finish casting their ballots.

It's then that Sir John, who's been working on general elections since the 1970s, interprets the exit poll - in which voters at about 140 selected polling stations fill in second ballots, indicating which candidate they've chosen.

And that's what he uses to tell the world who is likely to become the next prime minister.

"I don't worry about what happens at the close of voting," he says. "The more nervous period is later on in the night, when we actually see how accurate we've been."

For local elections like this week's in England, Scotland and Wales there are no exit polls - the same applies for the Northern Ireland Assembly elections on the same day.

But Sir John still has to make a call on what the vote means for the next general election.

"Someone wants you to give a reasonably realistic estimate of how the parties would do if voting shares were applied across the country as a whole, and across the four nations," he says.

"We're still trying to get the people an idea of where the story's going. It's quite hard."

The work of Sir John, professor of political science at the University of Strathclyde, and his colleagues starts months before the glamour of election night.

By the time polls open on the day of a general election, hundreds of hours of work finessing methods have gone in, ready for Sir John and his team of five or six experts to analyse exit poll results as they are phoned in.

"We tend to start in the middle of the morning, 11am or 12ish," he says. "No earlier, really, because we have to work until sometimes well into the following day."

The team hand in their mobile phones and sit together in a guarded room in a secret location.

By early afternoon - several hours before the rest of the country - Sir John has a good idea of who is likely to be the next prime minister.

After the usual early-evening surge in voting and exit polls, he and his experts sketch out their broader thoughts on a whiteboard.

"We're beginning to brief the people who really need to know, such as main representatives from TV companies," says Sir John.

"Then we get to the tough end of the business, saying this is what [result] we're going to go for now."

After the exit poll-based prediction is revealed at 10pm there is the wait to see if it is right - or as right as it can be.

Sir John's team leave the sealed room, spending the rest of the night in the TV studio.

This week's elections, lacking exit polls, will not have the amount of prior data that a general election provides.

Brain food? Sir John's team like to eat healthily but a slice of pizza now and then goes down well


"The story is emerging throughout the night," 68-year-old Sir John says. "For last year's local elections I got four hours' sleep [when there was a lull in results] and I got up at 5am to start again, but that doesn't happen for general elections."

For these, he is awake for at least 36 hours straight as he goes through the results, while writing online stories and appearing on radio and TV.

His team choose food from takeaway menus. "We try to have something healthy," says Sir John, "but we had pizzas last year, I think."

David Butler, the UK pioneering on-screen pollster, was a mentor to Sir John


"It gets more difficult to do the job the longer you're awake," says Sir John. "Lack of sleep destroys your short-term memory, so you have to get as well prepared as you can.

"Most people are not sitting up all night watching this stuff. But we still have to be ready to explain to people in the morning what's happened."

But Sir John resists the temptation to grab 40 winks.

"The way I see it is that, if you've missed a night of sleep, you've missed a night. You don't want to go back to sleep early and ruin sleep patterns. You have to keep going until nine or 10 the next evening."

By mid-morning on Friday, general election results show whether Sir John was right or wrong.

Broadcasters continue for several more hours to ask him for in-depth analysis on why people voted as they did.

And for local elections, he's called on throughout the day to give his developing state of-the-political-nation thoughts.

After that, it's time - finally - for bed.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Federal Financial Framework Shifts as Treasury Launches Universal Savings Program for Minors
French Court Allows Le Pen to Run for Presidency, but with an Electronic Tag: "I Will Appeal, and I Will Run"
$1.4 Trillion: The Lawsuit That Could Crush Meta
Europe's Growing Struggle with Extreme Heat and Air Conditioning
UK Daily Briefing: Legal Developments and Social Issues
Political Turmoil and Rising Costs
Anthropic Reengineers Agentic Architecture to Shift Autonomous Workplace Automation to the Cloud
Logic Flaw in Windows 11 Permission Architecture Silently Consumes Hundreds of Gigabytes of Local Storage
Apple Advances Late-Stage Operating Systems with Fourth Beta Deployments
Global Crisis Alert: Escalating Middle East Tensions and UK Political Upheaval
UK Parliament Pushes for Greater Domestic Control Over Critical Technologies
UK Parliament Warns Trade Fair and Exhibition Industry Is Losing Global Competitiveness
Police Launch Murder Investigation After Mother and Two Children Found Dead Near Bedford
British Chambers of Commerce Survey Shows Business Confidence Falls to Post-Pandemic Low
UK Parliament Report Warns Britain Risks Falling Behind in Artificial Intelligence Sovereignty
Office for Budget Responsibility Warns United Kingdom Faces Long-Term Fiscal Pressures
Nigel Farage Resigns as Member of Parliament Amid Financial Scrutiny and Triggers By-Election
Deep Purple Has Released Its Best Album in Decades
UK MPs Criticise Student Loan System as Potentially Mis-Sold to Millions of Borrowers
Policy Groups Propose Bank of England-Backed Solar Loan Scheme for Millions of Homes
UK Health Agency Issues Amber Heat Alerts Across Six Regions as Temperatures Rise
Royal Air Force F-35 Jets Conduct First High North Air Policing Missions From Aircraft Carrier
Major UK Companies Join Government Cybersecurity Pledge Amid Rising Digital Threats
UK Sanctions Russian Operatives Linked to Chemical Weapons Programmes and Poisoning Cases
UK Government Expands Free Breakfast Clubs and Limits School Uniform Costs
UK Water Companies Face Tougher Penalties Under New Environmental Enforcement Rules
UK Universities Warn Funding Cuts Could Damage Skills Pipeline and Economic Growth
NHS Expands Artificial Intelligence Tools to Help Reduce Patient Waiting Lists
NHS Ombudsman Criticises Failures in End-of-Life Communication and Patient Care
NHS Launches Nationwide Vaccination Drive After Rise in Measles Cases
UK Government Introduces New Limits on Foreign-Linked Political Donations
Thames Water Creditors Advance £10 Billion Rescue Plan to Prevent Potential Public Ownership
Andy Burnham Prepares Labour Leadership Platform as Party Faces Post-Starmer Transition
UK Met Office Issues Heatwave Alerts for London and Southern England
Keir Starmer Blocks Earlier World Cup Kick-Off Time for England Match Against Mexico
NHS Digital Transformation and Media Consolidation Highlight UK Policy Priorities
UK Government Pushes Digital Trade Rules to Cut Export Costs for Businesses
Bank of England Plans Leverage Rule Changes to Support Government Bond Market
UK Police Operation Targets Organised Immigration Crime Networks With Hundreds of Arrests
Yvette Cooper Calls for Global AI Rules to Prevent Security Risks
NHS Begins Major AI Expansion Through £10 Billion Digital Investment Programme
UK Government Tightens Rules on Political Donations to Limit Foreign Influence
Keir Starmer Defends UK Defence Spending Plan at NATO Summit in Turkey
Comcast’s Sky Agrees £1.6 Billion Deal to Acquire ITV Media and Entertainment Division
Senior NHS Doctors Vote in Favour of Renewed Strike Action Over Pay Dispute
Andy Burnham Set to Succeed Keir Starmer as Labour Leadership Nominations Open
Microsoft Lays Off 4,800 Employees and Xbox Suffers the Hardest Blow
Office for National Statistics Updates Historical Investment Data Review to Improve Accuracy
Department for Science, Innovation and Technology Highlights Economic Gains From Digital Inclusion
Debate Intensifies Over UK Defence Strategy and Domestic Security Priorities
×