London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Saturday, Nov 29, 2025

Sir John Curtice: The man who gets elections right

Sir John Curtice: The man who gets elections right

Voters across the UK go to the polls in local and Northern Ireland Assembly elections this Thursday. The man who calls the results, and informs the country about the state of politics based on voting, reveals how he does it.

When Professor Sir John Curtice pronounces on elections, politicians and pundits listen.

Knighted in 2017, he is perhaps the only psephologist in the UK who is routinely, albeit reluctantly, recognised in the street.

"I live with it," he says. "I don't live for it."

As 10pm chimes on the final Thursday of a general election, the last voters finish casting their ballots.

It's then that Sir John, who's been working on general elections since the 1970s, interprets the exit poll - in which voters at about 140 selected polling stations fill in second ballots, indicating which candidate they've chosen.

And that's what he uses to tell the world who is likely to become the next prime minister.

"I don't worry about what happens at the close of voting," he says. "The more nervous period is later on in the night, when we actually see how accurate we've been."

For local elections like this week's in England, Scotland and Wales there are no exit polls - the same applies for the Northern Ireland Assembly elections on the same day.

But Sir John still has to make a call on what the vote means for the next general election.

"Someone wants you to give a reasonably realistic estimate of how the parties would do if voting shares were applied across the country as a whole, and across the four nations," he says.

"We're still trying to get the people an idea of where the story's going. It's quite hard."

The work of Sir John, professor of political science at the University of Strathclyde, and his colleagues starts months before the glamour of election night.

By the time polls open on the day of a general election, hundreds of hours of work finessing methods have gone in, ready for Sir John and his team of five or six experts to analyse exit poll results as they are phoned in.

"We tend to start in the middle of the morning, 11am or 12ish," he says. "No earlier, really, because we have to work until sometimes well into the following day."

The team hand in their mobile phones and sit together in a guarded room in a secret location.

By early afternoon - several hours before the rest of the country - Sir John has a good idea of who is likely to be the next prime minister.

After the usual early-evening surge in voting and exit polls, he and his experts sketch out their broader thoughts on a whiteboard.

"We're beginning to brief the people who really need to know, such as main representatives from TV companies," says Sir John.

"Then we get to the tough end of the business, saying this is what [result] we're going to go for now."

After the exit poll-based prediction is revealed at 10pm there is the wait to see if it is right - or as right as it can be.

Sir John's team leave the sealed room, spending the rest of the night in the TV studio.

This week's elections, lacking exit polls, will not have the amount of prior data that a general election provides.

Brain food? Sir John's team like to eat healthily but a slice of pizza now and then goes down well


"The story is emerging throughout the night," 68-year-old Sir John says. "For last year's local elections I got four hours' sleep [when there was a lull in results] and I got up at 5am to start again, but that doesn't happen for general elections."

For these, he is awake for at least 36 hours straight as he goes through the results, while writing online stories and appearing on radio and TV.

His team choose food from takeaway menus. "We try to have something healthy," says Sir John, "but we had pizzas last year, I think."

David Butler, the UK pioneering on-screen pollster, was a mentor to Sir John


"It gets more difficult to do the job the longer you're awake," says Sir John. "Lack of sleep destroys your short-term memory, so you have to get as well prepared as you can.

"Most people are not sitting up all night watching this stuff. But we still have to be ready to explain to people in the morning what's happened."

But Sir John resists the temptation to grab 40 winks.

"The way I see it is that, if you've missed a night of sleep, you've missed a night. You don't want to go back to sleep early and ruin sleep patterns. You have to keep going until nine or 10 the next evening."

By mid-morning on Friday, general election results show whether Sir John was right or wrong.

Broadcasters continue for several more hours to ask him for in-depth analysis on why people voted as they did.

And for local elections, he's called on throughout the day to give his developing state of-the-political-nation thoughts.

After that, it's time - finally - for bed.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
250 Still Missing in the Massive Fire, 94 Killed. One Day After the Disaster: Survivor Rescued on the 16th Floor
Trump: National Guard Soldier Who Was Shot in Washington Has Died; Second Soldier Fighting for His Life
UK Chancellor Reeves Defends Tax Rises as Essential to Reduce Child Poverty and Stabilise Public Finances
No Evidence Found for Claim That UK Schools Are Shifting to Teaching American English
European Powers Urge Israel to Halt West Bank Settler Violence Amid Surge in Attacks
"I Would Have Given Her a Kidney": She Lent Bezos’s Ex-Wife $1,000 — and Received Millions in Return
European States Approve First-ever Military-Grade Surveillance Network via ESA
UK to Slash Key Pension Tax Perk, Targeting High Earners Under New Budget
UK Government Announces £150 Annual Cut to Household Energy Bills Through Levy Reforms
UK Court Hears Challenge to Ban on Palestine Action as Critics Decry Heavy-Handed Measures
Investors Rush Into UK Gilts and Sterling After Budget Eases Fiscal Concerns
UK to Raise Online Betting Taxes by £1.1 Billion Under New Budget — Firms Warn of Fallout
Lamine Yamal? The ‘Heir to Messi’ Lost to Barcelona — and the Kingdom Is in a Frenzy
Warner Music Group Drops Suit Against Suno, Launches Licensed AI-Music Deal
HP to Cut up to 6,000 Jobs Globally as It Ramps Up AI Integration
MediaWorld Sold iPad Air for €15 — Then Asked Customers to Return Them or Pay More
UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer Promises ‘Full-Time’ Education for All Children as School Attendance Slips
UK Extends Sugar Tax to Sweetened Milkshakes and Lattes in 2028 Health Push
UK Government Backs £49 Billion Plan for Heathrow Third Runway and Expansion
UK Gambling Firms Report £1bn Surge in Annual Profits as Pressure Mounts for Higher Betting Taxes
UK Shares Advance Ahead of Budget as Financials and Consumer Staples Lead Gains
Domino’s UK CEO Andrew Rennie Steps Down Amid Strategic Reset
UK Economy Stalls as Reeves Faces First Budget Test
UK Economy’s Weak Start Adds Pressure on Prime Minister Starmer
UK Government Acknowledges Billionaire Exodus Amid Tax Rise Concerns
UK Budget 2025: Markets Brace as Chancellor Faces Fiscal Tightrope
UK Unveils Strategic Plan to Secure Critical Mineral Supply Chains
UK Taskforce Calls for Radical Reset of Nuclear Regulation to Cut Costs and Accelerate Build
UK Government Launches Consultation on Major Overhaul of Settlement Rules
Google Struggles to Meet AI Demand as Infrastructure, Energy and Supply-Chain Gaps Deepen
Car Parts Leader Warns Europe Faces Heavy Job Losses in ‘Darwinian’ Auto Shake-Out
Arsenal Move Six Points Clear After Eze’s Historic Hat-Trick in Derby Rout
Wealthy New Yorkers Weigh Second Homes as the ‘Mamdani Effect’ Ripples Through Luxury Markets
Families Accuse OpenAI of Enabling ‘AI-Driven Delusions’ After Multiple Suicides
UK Unveils Critical-Minerals Strategy to Break China Supply-Chain Grip
Taylor Swift’s “The Fate of Ophelia” Extends U.K. No. 1 Run to Five Weeks
UK VPN Sign-Ups Surge by Over 1,400 % as Age-Verification Law Takes Effect
Former MEP Nathan Gill Jailed for Over Ten Years After Taking Pro-Russia Bribes
Majority of UK Entrepreneurs Regard Government as ‘Anti-Business’, Survey Shows
UK’s Starmer and US President Trump Align as Geneva Talks Probe Ukraine Peace Plan
UK Prime Minister Signals Former Prince Andrew Should Testify to US Epstein Inquiry
Royal Navy Deploys HMS Severn to Shadow Russian Corvette and Tanker Off UK Coast
China’s Wedding Boom: Nightclubs, Mountains and a Demographic Reset
Fugees Founding Member Pras Michel Sentenced to 14 Years in High-Profile US Foreign Influence Case
WhatsApp’s Unexpected Rise Reshapes American Messaging Habits
United States: Judge Dressed Up as Elvis During Hearings – and Was Forced to Resign
Johnson Blasts ‘Incoherent’ Covid Inquiry Findings Amid Report’s Harsh Critique of His Government
Lord Rothermere Secures £500 Million Deal to Acquire Telegraph Titles
Maduro Tightens Security Measures as U.S. Strike Threat Intensifies
U.S. Envoys Deliver Ultimatum to Ukraine: Sign Peace Deal by Thursday or Risk Losing American Support
×