London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Feb 25, 2026

Sir John Curtice: The man who gets elections right

Sir John Curtice: The man who gets elections right

Voters across the UK go to the polls in local and Northern Ireland Assembly elections this Thursday. The man who calls the results, and informs the country about the state of politics based on voting, reveals how he does it.

When Professor Sir John Curtice pronounces on elections, politicians and pundits listen.

Knighted in 2017, he is perhaps the only psephologist in the UK who is routinely, albeit reluctantly, recognised in the street.

"I live with it," he says. "I don't live for it."

As 10pm chimes on the final Thursday of a general election, the last voters finish casting their ballots.

It's then that Sir John, who's been working on general elections since the 1970s, interprets the exit poll - in which voters at about 140 selected polling stations fill in second ballots, indicating which candidate they've chosen.

And that's what he uses to tell the world who is likely to become the next prime minister.

"I don't worry about what happens at the close of voting," he says. "The more nervous period is later on in the night, when we actually see how accurate we've been."

For local elections like this week's in England, Scotland and Wales there are no exit polls - the same applies for the Northern Ireland Assembly elections on the same day.

But Sir John still has to make a call on what the vote means for the next general election.

"Someone wants you to give a reasonably realistic estimate of how the parties would do if voting shares were applied across the country as a whole, and across the four nations," he says.

"We're still trying to get the people an idea of where the story's going. It's quite hard."

The work of Sir John, professor of political science at the University of Strathclyde, and his colleagues starts months before the glamour of election night.

By the time polls open on the day of a general election, hundreds of hours of work finessing methods have gone in, ready for Sir John and his team of five or six experts to analyse exit poll results as they are phoned in.

"We tend to start in the middle of the morning, 11am or 12ish," he says. "No earlier, really, because we have to work until sometimes well into the following day."

The team hand in their mobile phones and sit together in a guarded room in a secret location.

By early afternoon - several hours before the rest of the country - Sir John has a good idea of who is likely to be the next prime minister.

After the usual early-evening surge in voting and exit polls, he and his experts sketch out their broader thoughts on a whiteboard.

"We're beginning to brief the people who really need to know, such as main representatives from TV companies," says Sir John.

"Then we get to the tough end of the business, saying this is what [result] we're going to go for now."

After the exit poll-based prediction is revealed at 10pm there is the wait to see if it is right - or as right as it can be.

Sir John's team leave the sealed room, spending the rest of the night in the TV studio.

This week's elections, lacking exit polls, will not have the amount of prior data that a general election provides.

Brain food? Sir John's team like to eat healthily but a slice of pizza now and then goes down well


"The story is emerging throughout the night," 68-year-old Sir John says. "For last year's local elections I got four hours' sleep [when there was a lull in results] and I got up at 5am to start again, but that doesn't happen for general elections."

For these, he is awake for at least 36 hours straight as he goes through the results, while writing online stories and appearing on radio and TV.

His team choose food from takeaway menus. "We try to have something healthy," says Sir John, "but we had pizzas last year, I think."

David Butler, the UK pioneering on-screen pollster, was a mentor to Sir John


"It gets more difficult to do the job the longer you're awake," says Sir John. "Lack of sleep destroys your short-term memory, so you have to get as well prepared as you can.

"Most people are not sitting up all night watching this stuff. But we still have to be ready to explain to people in the morning what's happened."

But Sir John resists the temptation to grab 40 winks.

"The way I see it is that, if you've missed a night of sleep, you've missed a night. You don't want to go back to sleep early and ruin sleep patterns. You have to keep going until nine or 10 the next evening."

By mid-morning on Friday, general election results show whether Sir John was right or wrong.

Broadcasters continue for several more hours to ask him for in-depth analysis on why people voted as they did.

And for local elections, he's called on throughout the day to give his developing state of-the-political-nation thoughts.

After that, it's time - finally - for bed.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Lord Mandelson Condemns Arrest as Driven by ‘Baseless Suggestion’ He Would Flee Abroad
Former UK Ambassador Released on Bail Following Arrest in Epstein-Linked Investigation
UK Parliament Orders Release of Former Prince Andrew’s Government Vetting Files
Reddit Fined £14 Million by UK Regulator Over Failures in Age Verification Controls
UK Moves to Tighten Regulation of Netflix, Disney+ and Prime Video Under New Media Rules
British Woman Who Reported Rape in Hong Kong Faces Possible Prosecution
'Christianity is the religion that has made this country great.'
Man Receives Parking Ticket 38 Years After Offense: ‘City Officials Said It’s Legitimate’
Woman Receives Gift Card for Christmas – Discovers It Is ‘Worth’ 63,000,000,000,000,000 Pounds
UK Sanctions New Zealand Insurer Maritime Mutual Following Allegations Over Russian Oil Cover
Reform MP Danny Kruger Condemns UK’s ‘Unregulated Sexual Economy’ in Call for Tougher Controls
The Show Must Go On: Prince William and Kate Middleton Shine at the BAFTAs Amid Andrew’s Arrest
UK Sanctions Russian ‘Illicit Oil Traders’ After Email Blunder Exposes Sanctions Evasion Network
Russia Amplifies Baseless Claims That UK and France Plan to Arm Ukraine with Nuclear Weapons
UK Imposes Sanctions on Two Georgian Television Channels Over Alleged Russian Disinformation
United States National Parks See Noticeable Drop in Visitors from Canada, U.K. and Australia
UK, Australia, Canada and New Zealand Escalate Sanctions on Russia as Ukraine War Marks Four Years
I Gave Andrew a Nude Massage Inside Buckingham Palace
UK Economy Faces Acute Strain as Trump’s Global Tariff Reshapes Trade Landscape
UK Signals Retaliation Is Possible as New US Tariff Policy Threatens Trade Stability
British Police Arrest Former Ambassador Peter Mandelson in Epstein-Related Misconduct Probe
Australia Officially Supports Proposal to Remove Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor from Royal Succession
Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan remains silent on ISIS brides' resettlement plans in Melbourne
Former UK Ambassador Peter Mandelson Arrested in Connection with Jeffrey Epstein
Jacob Rees Mogg afraid to talk about Peter Mandelson arrest on “suspicion of misconduct in a public office” (Pedophilia, corruption, etc.)
United Nations Calls for Global Action Against Disinformation and Hate Speech Online
Tucker Carlson warns of an inevitable clash in Western societies over mass migration
President Trump warns countries against abandoning recent trade deals with the US
Diverging Polls Show Mixed Signals on UK Economic Revival as Confidence Remains Fragile
Spotify Expands AI-Driven ‘Prompted Playlists’ Feature to the United Kingdom and Other Markets
Greens and Reform UK Surge in Manchester By-Election, Threatening Labour’s Historic Stronghold
UK Businesses Push for Closer European Trade Links Amid Renewed US Tariff Uncertainty
Deloitte Global Overhaul Sparks Leadership Contest in the United Kingdom
University of Kentucky and Microsoft to Showcase Campus-Wide AI Innovation
UK Food System Faces Acute Vulnerability to Shocks, Experts Warn
Reform UK’s Proposed ICE-Style Deportation Scheme Triggers Sharp Backlash
U.S. Global Tariff Push Leaves Britain, Australia and Others Facing Higher Costs and Trade Strain
UK Police Officers Guarded 2010 Epstein Dinner Attended by Prince Andrew, Reports Say
US Trade Representative Affirms Commitment to Existing Tariff Agreements with UK and Other Partners
Activists at the Louvre hung a framed Reuters photograph of Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor slumped in the back of a car leaving a police station on the day of his arrest
The royal biographer said that he expected the police to 'look at the money trail' - including Sarah Ferguson borrowing money from Epstein
A Protestor screams in NYC: “Bill Gates is on the Epstein’s List…”
FBI and Secret Service Hold Press Conference After Shooting Incident at Mar-a-Lago
Mark Zuckerberg Testifies in Trial Over Social Media's Impact on Children's Mental Health
Maggie Oliver exposes Keir Starmer using letters to close child rapists investigations
Kouri Richie's wrote a children’s book to help her sons grieve the death of their father. Now she’ll stand trial for his murder
New York Braces for Major Snowstorm With Up to 18 Inches Forecast and Blizzard Warnings Issued
Mexican Military Kills CJNG Leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes as Violence Erupts Across Jalisco
Metropolitan Police Deploys Palantir-Powered AI to Flag Potential Officer Misconduct
UK Parliament Rebukes Police Over Ban on Israeli Football Fans
×