London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Saturday, Feb 22, 2025

Shocked Investors Scour Xi’s Old Speeches to Find Next Target

As $1 trillion evaporated from Chinese stocks last week, some investors realized they hadn’t paid enough attention to the country’s most important man: President Xi Jinping.
Traders began scouring Xi’s speeches to find clues about which industries might be next after his administration abruptly smashed the country’s $100 billion for-profit education sector, according to several employees at Chinese financial firms who asked not to be identified. Screenshots of key passages made the rounds: Xi denouncing “obscene” online content, education inequality and housing-price speculation in school districts.

A government database of more than 11,000 speeches since Xi took power in 2012 became a key resource.

The jitters continued this week, with Tencent Holdings Ltd. shares plunging after the Economic Information Daily - an offshoot of the official Xinhua News Agency - decried the “spiritual opium” of online gaming, sparking worries that the sector might be next on the chopping block.

The selloff extended to Japanese gaming developers that have licensing deals with Tencent, China’s most valuable corporation.

“Investors and analysts have tended to dismiss party-speak, usually because it’s so impenetrable,” said Dan Wang, a technology analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics in Shanghai, who regularly reads the Qiushi Journal, a bi-monthly Communist Party publication.

“But much of it is perfectly readable, and we should know at this point that Xi usually follows through on what he says.”

Reading the signals from Beijing has always been a crucial component of doing business in China.

But the abrupt education overhaul has prompted even seasoned investors to reassess how they interpret statements from Xi and top officials in his government - a task made more difficult by the fact that many of his speeches are classified and only made available to the party elite.

Compounding the problem is Xi’s likely push for a third term ahead of a once-in-five-year meeting of party leaders next year in which key positions are up for grabs.

That has rank-and-file members all eager to please Xi, who has amassed more power in China than any leader since Deng Xiaoping in the 1980s and 1990s.

“With power mostly centralized in his hands, Xi now can change status quo policy quickly and even without much warning,” said Victor Shih, associate professor at UC San Diego and author of “Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation.”

“On top of quick policy changes, officials below him will want to zealously implement any new policy or ‘spirit,’ the party’s term for policy direction,” Shih added.

“This zealous implementation will often take place regardless of the longer-term consequences because officials are afraid of being accused of lackluster implementation.”

The opacity in China’s political system forces investors to gauge the importance of various statements from officials and state-run media.

After many market players shrugged off Xi’s criticism of out-of-school tutors back in June, this week’s Tencent selloff prompted them to dig up a Xi speech from March in which he identified “a lot of obscene and filthy stuff online” as one of a number of social problems that need to be addressed.

One element to watch is which agency makes the announcement, and over the past decade there’s been an increasing amount of joint statements that span different arms of the government and the party.

China’s ban on profits for its tutoring industry was jointly issued by the general offices of top government and party bodies - the State Council and the party’s Central Committee - giving the decision more authority than any single department.

While China’s policy moves can feel ad hoc particularly to foreign investors, the changes are quite targeted on certain sectors, said Jason Hsu, founder and chief investment officer of Rayliant Global Advisors.

“Right now, it feels like throwing the baby out of the bathwater and every industry is at risk,” he said. “If you are more aware of what the Chinese has been communicating all along, you know what they will do.

Real estate, health care, retirement living -- these are identified by policy makers as undermining societal harmony, and the quality of life.”

Still, authorities have sought to address misunderstandings in the market. Following the wild selloff last week, the China Securities Regulatory Commission promised more transparency and policy predictability in a Q&A posted on its website Sunday.

State media have also either tweaked articles or published commentaries to try to calm market jitters.

On Tuesday, the Economic Information Daily removed the link to its piece on online gaming, while the People’s Daily newspaper - the party’s official mouthpiece - published an editorial in its overseas edition stressing the need for government, schools, families and broader society to work together to better protect children from excessive gaming.

Markets were likely to remain volatile as investors adjust.

Even while it’s now “fairly obvious” which sectors Xi wants overhauled, “the timing and sequencing of Beijing’s regulatory actions will remain chaotic,” said Jude Blanchette, Freeman chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“The scope and severity of the current regulatory storm looks obvious only in retrospect,” Blanchette said.

“I’m not aware of anyone who read Xi’s 2018 speech on education and said, ‘He’s going to crush the for-profit education sector in three years hence.’”
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Good News: Senate Confirms Kash Patel as FBI Director
Officials from the U.S. and Hungary Engage in Talks on Economic Collaboration and Sanctions Strategy
James Bond Franchise Transitions to Amazon MGM Studios
Technology Giants Ramp Up Lobbying Initiatives Against Strict EU Regulations
Alibaba Exceeds Quarterly Projections Fueled by Growth in Cloud and AI
Tequila Sector Faces Surplus Crisis as Agave Prices Dive Sharply
Residents of Flintshire Mobile Home Park Grapple with Maintenance Issues and Uncertain Future
Ronan Keating Criticizes Irish Justice System Following Fatal Crash Involving His Brother
Gordon Ramsay's Lucky Cat Restaurant Faces Unprecedented Theft
Israeli Family Mourns Loss of Peace Advocate Oded Lifschitz as Body Returned from Gaza
Former UK Defense Chief Calls for Enhanced European Support for Ukraine
Pope Francis Admitted to Hospital in Rome Amid Rising Succession Speculation
Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, at the age of 83, Declares His Retirement.
Whistleblower Reveals Whitehall’s Focus on Kabul Animal Airlift Amid Crisis
Politicians Who Deliberately Lie Could Face Removal from Office in Wales
Scottish Labour Faces Challenges Ahead of 2026 Holyrood Elections
Leftwing Activists Less Likely to Work with Political Rivals, Study Finds
Boris Johnson to Host 'An Evening with Boris Johnson' at Edinburgh's Usher Hall
Planned Change in British Citizenship Rules Faces First Legal Challenge
Northumberland Postal Worker Sentenced for Sexual Assaults During Deliveries
British Journalist Missing in Brazil for 11 Days
Tesco Fixes Website Glitch That Disrupted Online Grocery Orders
Amnesty International Critiques UK's Predictive Policing Practices
Burglar Jailed After Falling into Home-Made Trap in Blyth
Sellafield Nuclear Site Exits Special Measures for Physical Security Amid Ongoing Cybersecurity Concerns
Avian Influenza Impact on Seals in Norfolk: Four Deaths Confirmed
First Arrest Under Scotland's Abortion Clinic Buffer Zone Law Amidst International Controversy
Meghan Markle Rebrands Lifestyle Venture as 'As Ever' Ahead of Netflix Series Launch
Inter-Island Ferry Services Between Guernsey and Jersey Set to Expand
Significant Proportion of Cancer Patients in England and Wales Not Receiving Recommended Treatments
Final Consultation Launched for Vyrnwy Frankton Power Line Project
Drug Misuse Deaths in Scotland Rise by 12% in 2023
Failed £100 Million Cocaine Smuggling Operation in the Scottish Highlands
Central Cee Equals MOBO Awards Record; Bashy and Ayra Starr Among Top Honorees
EastEnders: Four Decades of Challenging Social Norms
Jonathan Bailey Channels 'Succession' in Bold Richard II Performance
Northern Ireland's First Astronaut Engages in Rigorous Spacewalk Training
Former Postman Sentenced for Series of Sexual Offences in Northumberland
Record Surge in Anti-Muslim Hate Crimes Across the UK in 2024
Omagh Bombing Inquiry Concludes Commemorative Hearings with Survivor Testimonies
UK Government Introduces 'Ronan's Law' to Combat Online Knife Sales to Minors
Metal Detectorists Unearth 15th-Century Coin Hoard in Scottish Borders
Woman Charged in 1978 Death of Five-Year-Old Girl in South London
Expanding Sinkhole in Godstone, Surrey, Forces Evacuations and Road Closures
Bangor University Announces Plans to Cut 200 Jobs Amid £15 Million Savings Target
British Journalist Charlotte Peet Reported Missing in Brazil
UK Inflation Rises to 3% in January Amid Higher Food Prices and School Fees
Starmer Defends Zelensky Amidst Trump's 'Dictator' Allegation
Zelensky Calls on World Leaders to Back Peace Efforts in Light of Strains with Trump
UK Prime minister, Mr. Keir Starmer, has stated that any peace agreement aimed at ending the conflict in Ukraine "MUST" include a US security guarantee to deter Russian aggression
×