London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Sep 25, 2026

Scottish independence: Will there be a second referendum?

Scottish independence: Will there be a second referendum?

Nicola Sturgeon has launched a fresh campaign for Scottish independence.

Scotland's first minister says she "stands ready" to negotiate with PM Boris Johnson over the issue.

So is another referendum now inevitable?


Hasn't Scotland already had an independence referendum?


Yes, in September 2014, when Scottish voters were given the choice of staying in the UK or becoming an independent country.

They backed staying the UK by 55% to 45%.


Why is independence back in the spotlight now?


In truth, it has never really gone away.

Ms Sturgeon called for another referendum - "indyref2" - immediately after the UK as a whole voted to leave the EU in the 2016 Brexit referendum. Scottish voters backed remain by 62% by 38%.

Independence supporters argued that Scotland should take its future into its own hands, and no longer be tied to the UK and its Conservative government.

Ms Sturgeon put her initial post-Brexit demand for a referendum on hold after the SNP lost 21 seats in the 2017 general election. But she repeated the call in 2019, saying she wanted a vote within two years.

The Covid pandemic delayed this timetable again.

Ms Sturgeon says she will set out the steps she will take to secure a legal referendum even if the UK government does not give formal consent


The campaign was reignited again last year, when the Scottish government published a draft bill on independence shortly before the Scottish Parliament election.

This was almost five years after it published a similar draft bill in October 2016 - with Ms Sturgeon this time saying she intended to hold indyref2 before the end of 2023.

The SNP currently has a pro-independence majority in the devolved parliament alongside the Scottish Greens. It argues that its electoral success - coupled with the Brexit vote - mean it has a "cast-iron mandate" to hold another referendum.

But the UK government has made clear it has no intention of granting formal consent for a referendum through what is known as a Section 30 order.

This was put in place ahead of the 2014 referendum. Many - but not all - experts believe such a mechanism would be needed again to ensure any vote is legal, although Ms Sturgeon has so far still not formally asked for one.


Will indyref2 happen?


The UK government argues that the 2014 referendum was, in Ms Sturgeon's own words at the time, a once-in-a-generation opportunity.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson previously suggested that means another one shouldn't be held for about 40 years.

Boris Johnson has made clear he has no intention of agreeing to a second referendum


The UK government has accused the SNP of failing to give clear answers to key questions on issues like currency and pensions in an independent Scotland. It warns any attempt by Scotland to rejoin the EU would lead to a hard border between the two countries.

Ministers also say Ms Sturgeon and her government should be focusing on recovery from the Covid pandemic and improving public services like health and education.


So what is Ms Sturgeon's plan?


Ms Sturgeon had predicted that the UK government's hard-line opposition to indyref2 would have to soften if last year's elections produced another pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament.

However the Westminster government has not moved on the issue.

The first minister has now promised to set out the steps she will take to "forge a way forward, if necessary without a section 30 order", if its stance doesn't change.

Launching the first of a series of papers setting out the case to break away from the UK, she stressed that this must be done "in a lawful manner". This would appear to rule out Scotland following the example of Catalonia, which held a disputed referendum in 2017.

Many commentators believe Ms Sturgeon could introduce legislation to hold a referendum without the UK government's consent, with the courts ruling if she has the power to do so.

But even if judges were to find in the Scottish government's favour, opponents of independence could potentially boycott such a referendum.

BBC Scotland political editor Glenn Campbell says the basis for Ms Sturgeon's apparent confidence that indyref2 will happen next year is still not clear.


Would Scots vote for independence?


According to polling expert Prof Sir John Curtice, the last half dozen polls have - on average - put support for independence at 48%, with 52% against, once "don't know" votes are excluded.

This suggests that the country hasn't seen the big surge in support for independence that Ms Sturgeon hoped for in the wake of Brexit, the Covid pandemic and Boris Johnson becoming prime minister.

But with such a slender lead in the polls, the pro-UK side cannot be confident of victory, and will be mindful of how support for independence increased before the last referendum.

However polling has also suggested that there are fewer undecided voters now than there were at the start of the last referendum campaign, so it may be harder for either side to win people over.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Police Arrest Far-Right Activist After Migrant Dinghy Slashed in English Channel
Synthetic Opioids Drive Renewed Rise in Scotland’s Drug Deaths
Reported Assaults on Britain’s Railways Rise 20% in a Year
Vistry Cuts Profit Forecast as Losses Weigh on UK Housebuilder
TikTok Drops Appeal and Accepts £12.7 Million UK Data Protection Fine
Russell Group Urges UK Government to Drop Proposed International Student Levy
Legal & General Plans to Cut 1,000 Jobs by Mid-2027
UK Health Bill Would Remove Independent Governors From NHS Foundation Trusts
BMA Raises Patient Safety Concerns Over Advanced Practitioners Filling Doctor Rotas
UK’s Largest AI Supercomputer Delayed by Power Supply Constraints
NHS Orders Security Cameras in Neonatal Units Following Thirlwall Inquiry
Post-Brexit Trade Barriers Cost UK Economy Up to £6.5 Billion a Year, Analysis Says
UK Parliament Launches Inquiry Into Bank of England Monetary Policy Independence
Global Bond Selloff and Higher Oil Prices Narrow UK Budget Options
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham Addresses UN and Holds First Meeting With Donald Trump
Royal Navy Commandos Complete Maritime Operations Training With US Navy SEALs
Vistry Profit Warning Adds to Concerns Over UK Housebuilding Conditions
UK Commits £343 Million to Major Expansion of Community Mental Health Services
Five Eyes Partners Back UK-Led Campaign Against Global Fraud Networks
UK Businesses Gain Full Access to £13 Trillion CPTPP Trading Bloc
UK Allocates Nearly £10 Billion for Council, Social and Affordable Housing
Chancellor John Healey Unveils Deregulation Drive to Accelerate UK Investment and Growth
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Sets Out Post-Brexit Foreign Policy Vision at United Nations
UK Reassesses Chagos Arrangements as Burnham Seeks New Path on Diego Garcia
Key Trends to Watch
Government’s “Buy British” Procurement Push Targets More Domestic Jobs and Industrial Capacity
Scotland Launches Four-Year Flood Resilience Programme With New Community Funding
Low-Income Renters Face Record Gap Between Housing Support and Private Rents
UK and US Test Torpedo Launch From British Undersea Drone in Defence Technology Milestone
Britain Pushes Artificial Intelligence Security Onto United Nations Security Council Agenda
Treasury Committee Defends Office for Budget Responsibility Independence Amid Fiscal Pressure
Scotland Records Eleven Per Cent Rise in Drug-Use Deaths as Cocaine and Nitazenes Drive Concern
Welsh Government Sets Four-Year Programme Around Health, Living Costs, Jobs and Housing
Study Finds Most People With High Blood Pressure in England Remain Undiagnosed
Britain Plans First National Workplace Health System to Tackle Economic Inactivity
England to Introduce Vocational GCSEs in Major Secondary Education Reform
UK Elevates Climate and Nature Risks to National Security Priority
Andy Burnham and Donald Trump Put Trade at Centre of First Major Bilateral Meeting
Andy Burnham and Ursula von der Leyen Push Ahead With Closer UK-European Union Economic Ties
UK Government Borrowing Jumps to Eighteen Point Three Billion Pounds Ahead of October Budget
Piddington Residents Back Symbolic Independence Vote Over Asylum Accommodation Plan
Reform UK Names Helen Jenner as New Leader in Wales
England Expands Devolution of Transport, Skills and Economic Development Powers
Liberal Democrats Call for Temporary Fuel Duty Cut to Ease Cost-of-Living Pressure
UK Farmers Warn Drought Has Caused Crop Failures and Reduced Harvests
UK Fixed Mortgage Rates Approach 6% as Lenders Raise Borrowing Costs
YouGov Poll Puts Labour at 23% With Conservatives and Reform UK on 21%
Badenoch Presses Burnham to Increase Defence Spending and Cut Welfare Costs
UK Military Figures Warn of Growing Threats to Undersea Infrastructure and National Readiness
BP Moves Ahead With Sale of UK North Sea Oil and Gas Business
×