London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Aug 20, 2026

Scotland's next leader faces battle to unite country and party

Scotland's next leader faces battle to unite country and party

Three candidates will fight it out to succeed Nicola Sturgeon as Scotland's next leader, with the winner facing the daunting task of uniting a country divided over its future and a party fracturing over how to pursue another independence vote.

Sturgeon, in office since 2014, unexpectedly announced last week she was resigning as first minister of Scotland’s semi-autonomous government, saying she had become too divisive.

The bookmakers' frontrunner to succeed her and become the next leader of her Scottish National Party (SNP) is Humza Yousaf, a Sturgeon loyalist who faces criticism for his record in government.

Up against him are Kate Forbes, a rising star whose views opposing same-sex marriage have already lost her supporters, and Ash Regan, who quit the government in opposition to proposed changes to gender recognition, as the deadline for nominations closed on Friday.

The campaign so far has been dominated by a debate about views on social issues such as gay marriage, transgender rights and abortion. Sturgeon had faced criticism over her government's plan, which makes it easier for people to change their legal gender.

However, whoever wins will need to restore the Scottish government's reputation for day-to-day competence amid constrained budgets, while members of the SNP want them to chart a route forward towards the ultimate goal of independence.

"What the SNP need is somebody, a rare individual, who combines both of those talents," John Curtice, Britain's best known pollster, told Reuters, adding that the debate over social issues had meant none of the candidates had yet set out their vision for Scotland.

"The big fundamental question of facing the party... is how it's going to acquire majority support in Scotland for independence: That question has not been addressed."


INDEPENDENCE


Under Sturgeon, who became leader after an independence bid was defeated in a 2014 referendum, the SNP positioned itself as a progressive, pro-European voice for a Scotland that needed to break away so it could end years of Conservative government from Westminster.

But her attempt to call a new independence referendum without the consent of the UK government was stopped by the UK Supreme Court, while another row when London blocked the gender recognition reform law after its passage through the Scottish parliament revealed as many divisions over the policy within the SNP as it did with Westminster.

When she announced she was leaving, Sturgeon said she could not ask her party to follow her controversial plan to declare the next UK-wide election as a de facto referendum on independence if she was unsure of her own future as leader.

James Mitchell, a professor of public policy at the University of Edinburgh, said Health Secretary Yousaf was "the continuity candidate" who had not been associated with any particular vision of Scotland beyond independence.

He has however been criticised for his handling of a health service still struggling to recover the COVID-19 pandemic.

Yousaf has distanced himself from Sturgeon's independence plan, and has said the party needs to get back to making the case for independence, rather than endlessly debating process.

But his momentum mainly stems from pitfalls suffered by his main rival.


AN IMPORTANT VISION


Forbes, the nation's finance minister and a member of the socially conservative Free Church of Scotland, had been the frontrunner until she said she wouldn't have voted for single-sex marriage, which was legalised in Scotland in 2014. Some SNP politicians withdrew their support.

She has caused further controversy with her views on abortion, and by saying having children outside of marriage is wrong and that a trans woman is a biological man, though she has emphasised she will protect the rights of everyone.

One SNP lawmaker said that Forbes' campaign would likely continue to be dominated by her views and distract from other issues, which would be bad for her, the party, and other politicians who are religious but hold progressive social views.

"I can’t see how she can continue. So much damage has been done," the lawmaker said.

However, a poll published on Friday showed Forbes was the most popular candidate in the first survey of the party's supporters since the start of the contest.

Forbes had 28% support, putting her 8% ahead of Yousaf and comfortably ahead of Regan on 7%, while the remainder did not know who to back or preferred another candidate, according to the poll published by Opinion Matters, which surveyed SNP voters rather than party members who will decide the next leader.

Regan has said she would push for independence as soon as possible while looking to use North Sea oil reserves and rejecting the gender recognition law, policies that would strain a governing agreement with the Green Party.

As other policies are debated, Curtice said Sturgeon's pro-European stance was set to endure. Unlike the English and Welsh, most Scots opposed Brexit in the 2016 referendum.

"Sturgeon's framing of the independence debate in the last few years has been very much one in which really getting back into the European Union... is an important vision," he said.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
England and Wales Have Fewer Than 1,800 Prison Places Left for Men
Suspected People Smuggler Arrested After Investigation Identified Him
Children's Doctors Warn That Vaping Can Lead Young People to Smoking
Prince Harry and Meghan to Move Back to Britain With Their Children
Hundreds of Thousands of Students Receive GCSE and Vocational Results Across England, Wales and Northern Ireland
Here Is What Can Never Happen in Your Country: Taiwan Is Giving Money to All Its People Because It Collected Too Much Tax
UK Inflation Rises to 2.9% as Energy Bills Jump
UK Issues New Conduct Guide for Asylum Seekers on Consent and Respect
Moderna Shares Surge After Positive Personalized Skin Cancer Trial Results
UK Markets Watch US National Debt Surpass Forty Trillion Dollars
UK Broadcasters Urge Government to Invest in Digital Participation and Broadband
CVC Capital Partners and Standard Life Launch Two Billion Pound Pension Risk Transfer Venture
UK Private Sector Productivity Growth Accelerates in Second Quarter
UK Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband Condemns Israeli E1 Settlement Tender
UK Watchdog Investigates Trainline, Virgin Atlantic and RED Driving School Over Hidden Fees
Prince Harry and Meghan Markle Plan Move to Private Home Outside London
UK Retail Sentiment Improves as Summer Spending Boosts Consumer Confidence
UK Aid Cuts Draw Warnings From Charities Over Humanitarian Consequences
UK Financial Conduct Authority Issues Guidance for Motor Finance Redress Scheme
UK Met Office Launches Aviation Programme to Reduce Climate Impact of Persistent Contrails
Former UK Civil Service Chief Received Record 500,000 Pound Severance Payment
West Midlands to Bring Bus Network Under Public Franchising Model
UK Government Drops Plan to Relax Affordable Housing Requirements After Backlash
UK Reaffirms Military Support for Ukraine Despite Russian Hybrid Warfare Threats
UK Technology Sector Expands Nearly 8 Percent as Digital Industry Outpaces Wider Economy
UK Drought Threatens Harvests Across England and Wales as Food Inflation Risks Persist
UK Government Pledges 442 Million Pounds to End Rough Sleeping by Christmas
UK Government Signals Willingness to Reconsider Digital Services Tax Amid US Tariff Threats
UK Inflation Rises to 2.9 Percent as Energy Costs Threaten Economic Recovery
NHS Hospitals Cancel Surgeries as Extreme Heat Pushes Ward Temperatures Above 40 Degrees Celsius
UK Heatwave Forces Emergency Measures as Wildfire Risk, Hospital Disruption and Drought Intensify
A Sleepless Night on Wall Street: Nasdaq to Begin Nearly Round-the-Clock Trading
"The First in the World": 69-Year-Old Protested Artificial Intelligence—and Went to Jail
Ukraine's Ousted Defence Minister Calls for Wartime Presidential Election
UK Marks Ten Years of Night Tube as London Weekend Usage Exceeds Eighty-One Thousand Journeys a Night
Met Office Issues Thunderstorm Warnings Across Northern Ireland Over Flash-Flood Risk
Frasers Group Raises Stake in Hugo Boss to Nearly Forty-Eight Percent
Scottish Clyde Marine Pilots Prepare for Strike That Could Disrupt Glasgow and Greenock Shipping
Twenty Passengers Injured After Southern Train Derails Near Lewes in East Sussex
Government Rules Out High-Speed Rail Revival Between West Midlands and Northern England
West Midlands Bus Network Returns to Public Ownership in Twenty-Four Million Pound Deal
UK Competition Watchdog Targets Trainline, Virgin Atlantic and RED Driving School Over Drip Pricing
Northern Ireland Health Minister Mike Nesbitt Resigns After Dispute Over Causeway Hospital Surgery Closure
UK Long-Term Government Bond Yields Rise to Five Point Eight Five Percent as Borrowing Costs Surge
UK Government Overhauls Planning Rules to Push Housing Development Near Major Transport Hubs
UK Health and Economic Pressures Highlight Wider Strain on Households and Public Finances
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham Reaffirms Full Support for Ukraine Amid Russian Warnings
Sainsbury’s Suspends Live Facial Recognition at London Store After Customer Misidentified
Artists Urge UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham to Reject New North Sea Oil and Gas Licensing
UK Government Awards Four Hundred and Fifty-Six Million Pound Civil Service Training Contract to EY and KPMG
×