London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Saturday, Aug 08, 2026

Scotland's next leader faces battle to unite country and party

Scotland's next leader faces battle to unite country and party

Three candidates will fight it out to succeed Nicola Sturgeon as Scotland's next leader, with the winner facing the daunting task of uniting a country divided over its future and a party fracturing over how to pursue another independence vote.

Sturgeon, in office since 2014, unexpectedly announced last week she was resigning as first minister of Scotland’s semi-autonomous government, saying she had become too divisive.

The bookmakers' frontrunner to succeed her and become the next leader of her Scottish National Party (SNP) is Humza Yousaf, a Sturgeon loyalist who faces criticism for his record in government.

Up against him are Kate Forbes, a rising star whose views opposing same-sex marriage have already lost her supporters, and Ash Regan, who quit the government in opposition to proposed changes to gender recognition, as the deadline for nominations closed on Friday.

The campaign so far has been dominated by a debate about views on social issues such as gay marriage, transgender rights and abortion. Sturgeon had faced criticism over her government's plan, which makes it easier for people to change their legal gender.

However, whoever wins will need to restore the Scottish government's reputation for day-to-day competence amid constrained budgets, while members of the SNP want them to chart a route forward towards the ultimate goal of independence.

"What the SNP need is somebody, a rare individual, who combines both of those talents," John Curtice, Britain's best known pollster, told Reuters, adding that the debate over social issues had meant none of the candidates had yet set out their vision for Scotland.

"The big fundamental question of facing the party... is how it's going to acquire majority support in Scotland for independence: That question has not been addressed."


INDEPENDENCE


Under Sturgeon, who became leader after an independence bid was defeated in a 2014 referendum, the SNP positioned itself as a progressive, pro-European voice for a Scotland that needed to break away so it could end years of Conservative government from Westminster.

But her attempt to call a new independence referendum without the consent of the UK government was stopped by the UK Supreme Court, while another row when London blocked the gender recognition reform law after its passage through the Scottish parliament revealed as many divisions over the policy within the SNP as it did with Westminster.

When she announced she was leaving, Sturgeon said she could not ask her party to follow her controversial plan to declare the next UK-wide election as a de facto referendum on independence if she was unsure of her own future as leader.

James Mitchell, a professor of public policy at the University of Edinburgh, said Health Secretary Yousaf was "the continuity candidate" who had not been associated with any particular vision of Scotland beyond independence.

He has however been criticised for his handling of a health service still struggling to recover the COVID-19 pandemic.

Yousaf has distanced himself from Sturgeon's independence plan, and has said the party needs to get back to making the case for independence, rather than endlessly debating process.

But his momentum mainly stems from pitfalls suffered by his main rival.


AN IMPORTANT VISION


Forbes, the nation's finance minister and a member of the socially conservative Free Church of Scotland, had been the frontrunner until she said she wouldn't have voted for single-sex marriage, which was legalised in Scotland in 2014. Some SNP politicians withdrew their support.

She has caused further controversy with her views on abortion, and by saying having children outside of marriage is wrong and that a trans woman is a biological man, though she has emphasised she will protect the rights of everyone.

One SNP lawmaker said that Forbes' campaign would likely continue to be dominated by her views and distract from other issues, which would be bad for her, the party, and other politicians who are religious but hold progressive social views.

"I can’t see how she can continue. So much damage has been done," the lawmaker said.

However, a poll published on Friday showed Forbes was the most popular candidate in the first survey of the party's supporters since the start of the contest.

Forbes had 28% support, putting her 8% ahead of Yousaf and comfortably ahead of Regan on 7%, while the remainder did not know who to back or preferred another candidate, according to the poll published by Opinion Matters, which surveyed SNP voters rather than party members who will decide the next leader.

Regan has said she would push for independence as soon as possible while looking to use North Sea oil reserves and rejecting the gender recognition law, policies that would strain a governing agreement with the Green Party.

As other policies are debated, Curtice said Sturgeon's pro-European stance was set to endure. Unlike the English and Welsh, most Scots opposed Brexit in the 2016 referendum.

"Sturgeon's framing of the independence debate in the last few years has been very much one in which really getting back into the European Union... is an important vision," he said.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Australian Crew Evacuates Seriously Ill American From Antarctica in Midwinter Darkness
Trump’s Top General Seeks an Exit Strategy From Iran War, Report Says
Brock Lesnar Retires From Wrestling, Closing a Career of Rare Athletic Range and Lasting Controversy
Trump-Era Policy Shifts Test the Boundaries of U.S. Institutions
UK Drought Cuts Harvests and Raises Food-Security Fears
UFO: Pentagon Releases Video of Unidentified Object Tracked Over Middle East
US Health Secretary: “I’m Not Afraid of Germs — I Used to Snort Cocaine Off Toilet Seats”
Ukraine Tells Senate Republicans Its Drone War Offers a Blueprint for America
Weight-Loss Drug Boom Tests the Limits of Prescription Advertising Rules
Trump Keeps Hegseth at Pentagon While Leaving Door Open for DeSantis
UK Clears Paramount’s Warner Bros. Discovery Deal, but US Trial Looms
UK Prosecutors Add 38 Charges Against Andrew and Tristan Tate
Taiwan’s President Joins Wartime Command Drill as China Pressure Grows
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan Sign Mutual-Defence Pact
Government Orders Review of Prison Release Rules After Concerns Over Grooming Gang Offenders
Rail Disruption Continues Across North-West England Amid Infrastructure Problems and Engineering Closures
UK Tax Authority Proposes Broad Changes to Rules Governing Company Distributions
UK Government Moves to Protect Standing Areas Outside Pubs From Local Restrictions
Extreme Right-Wing Referrals Under UK Prevent Programme Rise 42 Percent
EU Citizens in UK Warned That Some Residency Rights May Have Been Granted in Error
Every Monitored Body of Water in England Fails Chemical Purity Standards, Government Data Shows
UK Scientists Create First Artificial Intelligence-Designed Viruses
England Orders Primary Schools to Identify Children at Risk of Becoming Disengaged From Education or Work
Government Moves to Close Prison Release Loophole Amid Concern Over Grooming Gang Offenders
UK Economy Shows Modest Growth Despite Energy Volatility and Global Supply Pressures
Police and Prosecutors Failed to Stop Sex Offender Who Later Murdered Two Women, Review Finds
Millions in England Face Longer Mental Health Waiting Times as NHS Providers Cut Spending
Met Office Warns of Heatwave as Temperatures Across England and Wales Could Reach 36 Degrees Celsius
HMRC’s 2029 Tax Shift Could Overlap Old and New Self-Assessment Bills
Thetford Disorder Prompts Expanded Police Powers Amid Asylum-Housing Protests
Cambridge Faces Calls for Independent Review of Jason Arday Appointment
Scotland’s ‘Cock of the North’ Woodland Is Being Felled After Wind Damage
Reform UK and Greens Unite Against Vast Solar Plans for Kent Marshland
New Zealand Draws Wealthy Americans With Revamped Investor Visa
Senate Panel Votes to Hold Anthony Fauci in Contempt After Fifth Amendment Testimony
Cambridge Professor Jason Arday Resigns as University Opens Inquiry Into His Credentials
Manchester Power Failure Disrupts Trains Across North West Into Friday
UK Fashion and Tourism Sectors Prepare for Strong Summer and Autumn Activity
London Residents Seek Appeal Against Approval for Chinese Super-Embassy Development
UK Environment Officials Issue Biosecurity Alert Over Rising Bluetongue Cases in Livestock
UK Charity Regulator Opens Investigations Into Donations Linked to Israeli Settlements
Gatwick Expansion and Chinese Embassy Plans Highlight Growing UK Infrastructure Disputes
UK Agriculture Authorities Warn of Rising Bluetongue Virus Cases Among Sheep Farms
UK Watchdog Finds Electronic Monitoring Failures Leaving Some Offenders Without Timely Alerts
Metropolitan Police Investigate Covent Garden Knife Attack That Injured Four Men
UK Government Confirms Severe Terror Threat Level as Prevent Programme Expands
Diageo Plans Guinness Expansion While Cutting Jobs Through Global Restructuring Programme
Bank of England Keeps UK Borrowing Costs Stable While Markets Await Future Rate Cuts
Gatwick Airport Wins Approval for Second Runway Expansion After Legal Challenges Fail
Apple Challenges UK Government Over Demand for Access to Encrypted iCloud Data
×