London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Tuesday, Jul 21, 2026

Scotland's next leader faces battle to unite country and party

Scotland's next leader faces battle to unite country and party

Three candidates will fight it out to succeed Nicola Sturgeon as Scotland's next leader, with the winner facing the daunting task of uniting a country divided over its future and a party fracturing over how to pursue another independence vote.

Sturgeon, in office since 2014, unexpectedly announced last week she was resigning as first minister of Scotland’s semi-autonomous government, saying she had become too divisive.

The bookmakers' frontrunner to succeed her and become the next leader of her Scottish National Party (SNP) is Humza Yousaf, a Sturgeon loyalist who faces criticism for his record in government.

Up against him are Kate Forbes, a rising star whose views opposing same-sex marriage have already lost her supporters, and Ash Regan, who quit the government in opposition to proposed changes to gender recognition, as the deadline for nominations closed on Friday.

The campaign so far has been dominated by a debate about views on social issues such as gay marriage, transgender rights and abortion. Sturgeon had faced criticism over her government's plan, which makes it easier for people to change their legal gender.

However, whoever wins will need to restore the Scottish government's reputation for day-to-day competence amid constrained budgets, while members of the SNP want them to chart a route forward towards the ultimate goal of independence.

"What the SNP need is somebody, a rare individual, who combines both of those talents," John Curtice, Britain's best known pollster, told Reuters, adding that the debate over social issues had meant none of the candidates had yet set out their vision for Scotland.

"The big fundamental question of facing the party... is how it's going to acquire majority support in Scotland for independence: That question has not been addressed."


INDEPENDENCE


Under Sturgeon, who became leader after an independence bid was defeated in a 2014 referendum, the SNP positioned itself as a progressive, pro-European voice for a Scotland that needed to break away so it could end years of Conservative government from Westminster.

But her attempt to call a new independence referendum without the consent of the UK government was stopped by the UK Supreme Court, while another row when London blocked the gender recognition reform law after its passage through the Scottish parliament revealed as many divisions over the policy within the SNP as it did with Westminster.

When she announced she was leaving, Sturgeon said she could not ask her party to follow her controversial plan to declare the next UK-wide election as a de facto referendum on independence if she was unsure of her own future as leader.

James Mitchell, a professor of public policy at the University of Edinburgh, said Health Secretary Yousaf was "the continuity candidate" who had not been associated with any particular vision of Scotland beyond independence.

He has however been criticised for his handling of a health service still struggling to recover the COVID-19 pandemic.

Yousaf has distanced himself from Sturgeon's independence plan, and has said the party needs to get back to making the case for independence, rather than endlessly debating process.

But his momentum mainly stems from pitfalls suffered by his main rival.


AN IMPORTANT VISION


Forbes, the nation's finance minister and a member of the socially conservative Free Church of Scotland, had been the frontrunner until she said she wouldn't have voted for single-sex marriage, which was legalised in Scotland in 2014. Some SNP politicians withdrew their support.

She has caused further controversy with her views on abortion, and by saying having children outside of marriage is wrong and that a trans woman is a biological man, though she has emphasised she will protect the rights of everyone.

One SNP lawmaker said that Forbes' campaign would likely continue to be dominated by her views and distract from other issues, which would be bad for her, the party, and other politicians who are religious but hold progressive social views.

"I can’t see how she can continue. So much damage has been done," the lawmaker said.

However, a poll published on Friday showed Forbes was the most popular candidate in the first survey of the party's supporters since the start of the contest.

Forbes had 28% support, putting her 8% ahead of Yousaf and comfortably ahead of Regan on 7%, while the remainder did not know who to back or preferred another candidate, according to the poll published by Opinion Matters, which surveyed SNP voters rather than party members who will decide the next leader.

Regan has said she would push for independence as soon as possible while looking to use North Sea oil reserves and rejecting the gender recognition law, policies that would strain a governing agreement with the Green Party.

As other policies are debated, Curtice said Sturgeon's pro-European stance was set to endure. Unlike the English and Welsh, most Scots opposed Brexit in the 2016 referendum.

"Sturgeon's framing of the independence debate in the last few years has been very much one in which really getting back into the European Union... is an important vision," he said.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
EU Imposes Record €550 Million Digital Services Fine on AliExpress
UK Publishes Updated Consumption-Based Carbon Emissions Data
English Regions Prepare for Expanded Devolution and Infrastructure Powers
Russell Group Backs New Government and Calls for Stronger University-Industry Links
Bank of England Maintains Restrictive Monetary Policy Amid Persistent Inflation
Climate Progress Report Renews Debate Over the UK's Net Zero Strategy
New UK Government Launches Drive to End Rough Sleeping and Expand Social Housing
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Appoints John Healey as Chancellor in Cabinet Reshuffle
OECD Calls for Structural Reforms as UK Economy Faces Slower Growth
International Monetary Fund Expects UK Economic Growth to Slow to One Percent in 2026
Andy Burnham Takes Office as UK Prime Minister and Unveils Decade-Long Reform Agenda
London’s Housing Starts Collapse as Planning and Building Costs Stall Development
Charlie Sheen’s Daughter: "My Dad Didn’t Buy Me a House, My Breasts Bought It"
Vivienne Westwood Casts Cicciolina, 74, in Its New Autumn Campaign
Dejavu: Germany’s Military Expansion Reshapes Europe’s Strategic Balance With France
Naturally Conceived Identical Quadruplets Born in Rare Brisbane Delivery
Tate Brothers Fight British Extradition Bid After Miami Arrests
Burnham Reshapes Britain’s Government Around Living Costs, Devolution and Security
Jingye Demands Full Compensation After Britain illegally Nationalized British Steel
Just Another Liar or a Robin Hood? Andy Burnham Pledges Cost-of-Living Help in First Speech as UK Prime Minister
Morgan Stanley Builds a Wall Street Lead in AI Infrastructure Finance
High Prices Push Coffee Drinkers Toward Whole Beans and Home Brewing
Trump Draws Boos and Podium Scrutiny at Spain’s World Cup Triumph
Brilliant move: Péter Magyar Moves to Nominate Chess Grandmaster Judit Polgár as Hungary’s President
Spain Defeats Argentina in Extra Time to Win Second World Cup
Police Block Cockroach Janta Party’s March to Parliament as Education Protests Intensify
Current AI Seeks to Build an Open Global AI Infrastructure Outside Big Tech Control
Turkey Explores S-400 Transfer to UAE in Bid to Rejoin F-35 Program
Josh Kerr Breaks Twenty-Seven-Year World Mile Record at London Diamond League
Thames Water Crisis Deepens as South East Water Outages Hit Thousands in Kent
EU Ban on Destroying Unsold Clothing Forces British Fashion Brands to Change Operations
UK Government Confirms Existing North Sea Oil and Gas Licences Will Be Honoured
UK Covid Inquiry Finds Nearly Ten Billion Pounds Lost in Pandemic Protective Equipment Procurement
Thames Water Moves Toward Possible Temporary Nationalisation Amid Rescue Plan Dispute
Andy Burnham Cancels One Point Eight Billion Pound Digital ID Programme After Taking Office
UK Government Takes British Steel Into Full Public Ownership to Protect Jobs and Supply Chains
Andy Burnham Becomes UK Prime Minister and Pledges Focus on Living Costs and Public Services
Germany’s Economic Malaise Reopens the Sunday Shopping Debate
Singapore Considers Lower Taxes for Fund Managers as Hong Kong Intensifies Talent Contest
US Retaliates Against Iran After Two American Troops Killed in Jordan
Bank of Asia BVI Enters Court-Supervised Liquidation After Regulators Find It Insolvent
Proposed U.S.-Saudi Nuclear Pact Could Permit Limited Uranium Enrichment Under International Safeguards
Netherlands Declares Water Shortage Emergency After Drought Pushes Rivers to Historic Lows
Why Kentucky Fried Chicken Became KFC—and Why the False Explanations Persist
Iran Claims It Destroyed Bahrain’s Main Artificial Intelligence Center in Missile and Drone Strike
Ukrainian Drones Strike Wildberries Warehouses Deep Inside Russia
Brothers Andrew and Tristan Tate Who Turned "Toxic Masculinity" Into a Brand Arrested in Miami as Britain Seeks Their Extradition
Reported CIA Mission Helped Clear the UAE’s Path to Advanced US AI Chips
Artificial Intelligence Capital Fuels Markets While Governments and Regulators Face Mounting Strategic Tests
China’s Moonshot’s Kimi K3 Narrows the Gap With Anthropic Through Scale, Openness and Lower Cost
×