London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Oct 30, 2026

Scotland's next leader faces battle to unite country and party

Scotland's next leader faces battle to unite country and party

Three candidates will fight it out to succeed Nicola Sturgeon as Scotland's next leader, with the winner facing the daunting task of uniting a country divided over its future and a party fracturing over how to pursue another independence vote.

Sturgeon, in office since 2014, unexpectedly announced last week she was resigning as first minister of Scotland’s semi-autonomous government, saying she had become too divisive.

The bookmakers' frontrunner to succeed her and become the next leader of her Scottish National Party (SNP) is Humza Yousaf, a Sturgeon loyalist who faces criticism for his record in government.

Up against him are Kate Forbes, a rising star whose views opposing same-sex marriage have already lost her supporters, and Ash Regan, who quit the government in opposition to proposed changes to gender recognition, as the deadline for nominations closed on Friday.

The campaign so far has been dominated by a debate about views on social issues such as gay marriage, transgender rights and abortion. Sturgeon had faced criticism over her government's plan, which makes it easier for people to change their legal gender.

However, whoever wins will need to restore the Scottish government's reputation for day-to-day competence amid constrained budgets, while members of the SNP want them to chart a route forward towards the ultimate goal of independence.

"What the SNP need is somebody, a rare individual, who combines both of those talents," John Curtice, Britain's best known pollster, told Reuters, adding that the debate over social issues had meant none of the candidates had yet set out their vision for Scotland.

"The big fundamental question of facing the party... is how it's going to acquire majority support in Scotland for independence: That question has not been addressed."


INDEPENDENCE


Under Sturgeon, who became leader after an independence bid was defeated in a 2014 referendum, the SNP positioned itself as a progressive, pro-European voice for a Scotland that needed to break away so it could end years of Conservative government from Westminster.

But her attempt to call a new independence referendum without the consent of the UK government was stopped by the UK Supreme Court, while another row when London blocked the gender recognition reform law after its passage through the Scottish parliament revealed as many divisions over the policy within the SNP as it did with Westminster.

When she announced she was leaving, Sturgeon said she could not ask her party to follow her controversial plan to declare the next UK-wide election as a de facto referendum on independence if she was unsure of her own future as leader.

James Mitchell, a professor of public policy at the University of Edinburgh, said Health Secretary Yousaf was "the continuity candidate" who had not been associated with any particular vision of Scotland beyond independence.

He has however been criticised for his handling of a health service still struggling to recover the COVID-19 pandemic.

Yousaf has distanced himself from Sturgeon's independence plan, and has said the party needs to get back to making the case for independence, rather than endlessly debating process.

But his momentum mainly stems from pitfalls suffered by his main rival.


AN IMPORTANT VISION


Forbes, the nation's finance minister and a member of the socially conservative Free Church of Scotland, had been the frontrunner until she said she wouldn't have voted for single-sex marriage, which was legalised in Scotland in 2014. Some SNP politicians withdrew their support.

She has caused further controversy with her views on abortion, and by saying having children outside of marriage is wrong and that a trans woman is a biological man, though she has emphasised she will protect the rights of everyone.

One SNP lawmaker said that Forbes' campaign would likely continue to be dominated by her views and distract from other issues, which would be bad for her, the party, and other politicians who are religious but hold progressive social views.

"I can’t see how she can continue. So much damage has been done," the lawmaker said.

However, a poll published on Friday showed Forbes was the most popular candidate in the first survey of the party's supporters since the start of the contest.

Forbes had 28% support, putting her 8% ahead of Yousaf and comfortably ahead of Regan on 7%, while the remainder did not know who to back or preferred another candidate, according to the poll published by Opinion Matters, which surveyed SNP voters rather than party members who will decide the next leader.

Regan has said she would push for independence as soon as possible while looking to use North Sea oil reserves and rejecting the gender recognition law, policies that would strain a governing agreement with the Green Party.

As other policies are debated, Curtice said Sturgeon's pro-European stance was set to endure. Unlike the English and Welsh, most Scots opposed Brexit in the 2016 referendum.

"Sturgeon's framing of the independence debate in the last few years has been very much one in which really getting back into the European Union... is an important vision," he said.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Water pollution remains high despite £5bn investment
Regional Economic Divergence and Industrial Transformation
Technological Sovereignty and Regulatory Scrutiny
Fiscal Consolidation and Public Service Pressures
Automotive Industry Leadership Warns of Imminent Supply Chain Disruptions Following Recent European Trade Negotiations
High Court Delivers Landmark Ruling Affirming Strict Legal Protections for Corporate Data Privacy Against State Surveillance
Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan Secures Additional Funding for Regional Transport Infrastructure and Rail Modernization
Scottish First Minister John Swinney Announces Major Green Energy Infrastructure Investment Package for Aberdeen
Department for Work and Pensions Proposes Sweeping Welfare Reforms to Incentivize Long-Term Unemployed Back into Work
Competition and Markets Authority Launches Formal Investigation into Artificial Intelligence Partnerships Involving Major Tech Giants
United Kingdom Foreign Secretary David Lammy Concludes High-Level Strategic Talks in Washington on Middle East Security
National Health Service England Unveils Emergency Winter Resilience Plan to Combat Projected Surge in Emergency Admissions
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey Signals Cautious Approach to Interest Rate Cuts Amid Persistent Inflation
British Chancellor Rachel Reeves Finalizes Corporate Tax Overhaul Ahead of Autumn Budget to Fund Public Services
Automotive Manufacturers Urge Government Action as High Energy Costs and Global Supply Chain Disruptions Threaten Production
Metropolitan Police Issue Formal Apology Following Inadvertent Release of Confidential Information During High-Profile Investigation
Scottish Finance Secretary Shona Robison Unveils Devolved Budget Highlighting Housing and Public Service Adjustments
Energy Regulator Office of Gas and Electricity Markets Prepares to Remove Household Gas Standing Charges Following Treasury Mandate
Treasury Confirms Reversal of Planned Cash Individual Savings Account Allowance Reduction Protecting Twenty Thousand Pound Limit
Office for Budget Responsibility Revisions Predict Moderate United Kingdom Economic Growth with Elevated Inflation Pressures
Chancellor John Healey Delivers First Autumn Budget in Parliament Highlighting Temporary Bank Surcharge and Cost-of-Living Support
Met Office Issues Extended Forecast Highlighting Stable High Pressure Weather Patterns Across the United Kingdom
Scottish Finance Secretary Shona Robison Outlines Changes to Tax Thresholds and Residential Property Levies in Edinburgh
Financial Markets and Government Bond Yields Remain Stable Following Muted Reaction to Autumn Budget Measures
Defence Committee Chair Tan Dhesi Criticizes Budget for Delaying Critical Defence Spending Decisions to Next Year
International Monetary Fund Forecasts United Kingdom Economic Growth at One Point Three Percent for Year
Office for Budget Responsibility Assesses Fiscal Headroom Reduced to Fifteen Billion Pounds Following Global Energy Shocks
Chancellor John Healey Delivers First Autumn Budget Introducing Household Energy Support and Bank Tax Hikes
Aberdeen City Council Co-Leader Faces Binding Vote Challenge as Local Councillors Launch High Court Legal Battle
Housebuilding Across Scotland Falls to Eleven-Year Low Despite Government Declarations of a Housing Emergency
Former Prime Minister Gordon Brown Organizes National Innovation Summit in Manchester to Boost Regional Competitiveness
UK Government Faces Mounting Criticism Over Lack of Environmental Consultation During Artificial Intelligence Datacentre Expansion Talks
Greggs Announces Closure of Four Major Manufacturing Facilities Across Britain Resulting in Seven Hundred Forty Job Losses
British Retail Consortium Warns That Cumulative Employment and Regulatory Costs Threaten High Street Price Stability
Lloyds Banking Group Chief Executive Charlie Nunn Warns That Increased Bank Taxes Could Deter Long-Term Economic Investment
Ipsos Polling Reveals Seven in Ten Britons Expect Personal Tax Increases Amid Deep Public Economic Pessimism
Chancellor John Healey Delivers First Autumn Budget in Parliament Amid Tight Fiscal Constraints and Slower Growth Forecasts
United Kingdom Finance Monthly Review Highlights Rising Long-Term Borrowing Costs and Persistent Energy Price Pressures Across British Markets
Royal Marines Pioneer Rapid Autonomous Drone Operations During Major High North Exercise Involving NATO Allies
House of Commons Justice Committee Urges Chancellor to Align Prison and Courts Reform Ambitions With Concrete Budgetary Resources
Government Investigates Rapid Artificial Intelligence Datacentre Expansion Strategy Following Scrutiny Over Power Grid Demands and Planning Backlogs
His Majesty's Inspectorate of Constabulary Warns Third-Party Supplier Breaches Threaten United Kingdom Police and Fire Service Data
Number of British Businesses in Financial Distress Reaches Highest Level in Two Decades Ahead of Fiscal Announcement
Chancellor John Healey Prepares Autumn Budget Amid Intense Market Scrutiny Over Fiscal Headroom and Spending Pressures
Education or Indoctrination? The Growing Debate Over Religious Participation in British Schools
Germany's Vanishing Shopfronts: The Silent Collapse of the Businesses That Built Its Cities
Northern Ireland Executive Reaches Agreement on Public Transport Modernization and Cross-Border Rail Infrastructure Funding
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero Approves New North Sea Carbon Capture and Storage Industrial Clusters
Office for National Statistics Reports Stabilization in Private Rental Growth Across Major English and Welsh Regional Cities
United Kingdom Automotive Manufacturing Output Rises Moderately as Electric Vehicle Assembly Lines Expand in the Midlands
×