London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Aug 22, 2025

Rishi Sunak walks Brexit tightrope as protocol deal nears

Rishi Sunak walks Brexit tightrope as protocol deal nears

The UK prime minister’s controversial drive to scrap hundreds of EU laws may not be enough to keep Tory Brexiteers onside.

Boris Johnson was supposed to have killed off the Tories' 30-year EU curse. But just three months into his own tenure as U.K. prime minister, Rishi Sunak fears yet another Tory schism on Europe is about to emerge.

Johnson romped to a landslide election victory in 2019 on a decisive vow to “get Brexit done" — seemingly putting to bed decades of civil war within his party over Britain's membership of the European Union, which had felled successive leaders.

Yet with Johnson (mostly) now out of the picture and Sunak's party still struggling badly in the polls, the new PM's tenuous grip over his unruly colleagues means the Tories' Euroskeptic wing is growing in confidence, in what will be a year of crucial post-Brexit decisions.

Sunak knows he will need to maintain the support of those same Euroskeptic Tory MPs — as well as other unruly backbench tribes — as he tries to resolve the long-running Northern Ireland protocol dispute with Brussels. It will not be an easy task.

“The protocol is the biggest single, visible object that could threaten the PM’s position,” said Paul Goodman, a former Tory MP and now editor of the influential Conservative Home website.

The U.K. and EU both agree the protocol is not working in its current form, and after a lengthy dispute appear to be closing in on a deal to address many of the outstanding issues.

Despite having left the EU along with the rest of the U.K, Northern Ireland still follows Brussels' customs union and single market rules in order to avoid a politically-sensitive hard border with the Republic of Ireland. Northern Ireland's unionist politicians loathe the setup, arguing it drives a wedge between the region and the rest of the U.K. Conservative critics in Westminster, meanwhile, believe the current agreement hands too much oversight power to the European Union's top court.

As a Leave supporter, Sunak has some credibility among Euroskeptic colleagues to find a solution — but a compromise too far could turn key Brexiteers in his party mutinous.


Currying favor


In theory, Sunak should face an easier ride than his predecessors. The European Research Group (ERG) of backbench Conservative Brexiteers is no longer the same group of highly organized and disciplined MPs it was back when it caused daily headaches for Theresa May during the last parliament.

But there are rumblings across Westminster that the protocol issue could give the group a new raison d’etre. Pressure from rebellious Tory MPs has already forced Sunak into a series of embarrassing U-turns in other policy areas, and Downing Street is well aware Tory Brexiteers could cause significant headaches should aspects of any new agreement with the EU require a House of Commons vote.

Sunak is already making conspicuous overtures to the ERG with other policy decisions. He’s talking tough on illegal migrant crossings of the English Channel, and is pressing ahead with a controversial Johnson-era plan to reform or axe an array of EU-derived laws still in force in the U.K.

The Retained EU Law Bill's "sunset clause" will automatically scrub laws from the U.K. statute book that have not been changed or repealed by the end of the year. The policy has been criticized by business groups for creating regulatory uncertainty for the private sector.

One government official told POLITICO the Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy now believes there are some 3,200 retained EU laws still on the U.K. statute books. This is around 600 fewer than previously reported, yet still remains a mammoth exercise for the overstretched civil service.

“The protocol is the biggest single, visible object that could threaten the PM’s position,” says one former Tory MP


Senior Tory MP David Davis, a staunch Brexiteer and former Brexit secretary, said “it certainly looks like” Sunak is trying to curry favor with the right of the party by lighting this enormous Brexit bonfire of EU law.

“It is a policy in pursuit of a headline, instead of a policy improvement,” Davis said. “There's probably about 5-10 per cent of EU law that needs to be repealed and changed as a material difference."

But he added: "Industries have got used to it over the years. When I was a businessman, I didn't care about old regulations — it was new regulations that created burdens."

Yet the exercise serves a clear political purpose — reassuring Brexiteers that Sunak, who backed Britain's departure from the EU as a junior MP in 2016, is still one of them.

One senior Tory in the ERG group confirmed there is “considerable goodwill for the prime minister within the ERG because of the bill."

The MP added: “A lot of EU law just needs to be got rid of. It’s a strange and intolerable situation where we have regulations written by a foreign administration."

Sunak hopes shredding EU regulations at a frenetic pace will therefore give him the breathing room among his own MPs to find a compromise with Brussels over Northern Ireland. This may be wishful thinking.

“We hope the prime minister will retain the goodwill he now has during the Northern Ireland protocol negotiations," the ERG MP said. "However, our support is not unconditional."


Protocol red lines


Foreign Secretary James Cleverly, lead U.K. negotiator for the Northern Ireland protocol talks, is racing to find a compromise with Brussels over the border dispute, with April 10 seen as an unofficial deadline for a deal.

That date will mark the 25th anniversary of the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement and comes just before potential elections for the currently-frozen Northern Ireland regional assembly. A spring visit by U.S. President Joe Biden around the same time is said to hang on a resolution to the row.

James Cleverly, the UK’s lead negotiator for the Northern Ireland protocol talks


The U.K. wants to significantly change the way the protocol works to end the vast majority of checks on goods moving to Northern Ireland from Great Britain. And it's long pushed for the removal of the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) from its role as arbiter of disputes under the deal.

The EU is in turn proposing to work within the protocol to slash red tape and border checks on food and medicines coming from Great Britain to Northern Ireland — but it has made clear it will not countenance stripping European judges of their role in enforcing the arrangement.

That reality has led many in Westminster to conclude that Sunak will inevitably be forced into a deal that reduces border checks, but maintains some role for the ECJ.

Unfortunately for the U.K. prime minister, Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has also made its own position clear — it will not rejoin the region's power-sharing assembly if European judges have any jurisdiction whatsoever over Northern Ireland.

“The DUP and ERG position on this is indistinguishable,” the same ERG MP quote above said.

Any deal, they added, "must not undermine the Good Friday/Belfast Agreement and it not must not make Northern Ireland a subject to a foreign administration and a foreign court."

Another ERG MP went further, warning "a lot of Tory MPs will not stomach any deal which allows Brussels to continue set the laws and regulations for Northern Ireland."

"No countries in the world would accept this situation that we have," the MP said.

POLITICO's London Playbook revealed this week that informal surveys are now being conducted to ask Tory backbenchers what they would want to see in a Northern Ireland protocol deal with Brussels.

Robin Millar, Tory MP and parliamentary private secretary to the Scottish and Welsh secretaries, issued a multiple choice survey to a group of 64 MPs over WhatsApp — in a sign that No. 10 is acutely aware of the potential for backbench rebellions over the issue.


Back seat drivers?


Sunak must also know that his two immediate predecessors are keeping a close eye on the negotiations. Supporters of Johnson and Liz Truss have split into separate pressure groups on the Tory backbenches, and both are already causing Sunak headaches.

One former member of Truss' short-lived Cabinet said there was a “very significant chance” of widespread backbench Tory rebellions within these two groups on any protocol deal.

“Both former prime ministers made very clear commitments that they will not accept a role for the ECJ in Northern Ireland. Boris and Liz are completely aligned on this point,” the MP warned.

For some, it would be delicious slice of irony if Johnson helped reignite a Tory civil war on Brexit — just three years after supposedly nixing the issue for good.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
After 200,000 Orders in 2 Minutes: Xiaomi Accelerates Marketing in Europe
Ukraine Declares De Facto War on Hungary and Slovakia with Terror Drone Strikes on Their Gas Lifeline
Animated K-pop Musical ‘KPop Demon Hunters’ Becomes Netflix’s Most-Watched Original Animated Film
New York Appeals Court Voids Nearly $500 Million Civil Fraud Penalty Against Trump While Upholding Fraud Liability
Elon Musk tweeted, “Europe is dying”
Far-Right Activist Convicted of Incitement Changes Gender and Demands: "Send Me to a Women’s Prison" | The Storm in Germany
Hungary Criticizes Ukraine: "Violating Our Sovereignty"
Will this be the first country to return to negative interest rates?
Child-free hotels spark controversy
North Korea is where this 95-year-old wants to die. South Korea won’t let him go. Is this our ally or a human rights enemy?
Hong Kong Launches Regulatory Regime and Trials for HKD-Backed Stablecoins
China rehearses September 3 Victory Day parade as imagery points to ‘loyal wingman’ FH-97 family presence
Trump Called Viktor Orbán: "Why Are You Using the Veto"
Horror in the Skies: Plane Engine Exploded, Passengers Sent Farewell Messages
MSNBC Rebrands as MS NOW Amid Comcast’s Cable Spin-Off
AI in Policing: Draft One Helps Speed Up Reports but Raises Legal and Ethical Concerns
Shame in Norway: Crown Princess’s Son Accused of Four Rapes
Apple Begins Simultaneous iPhone 17 Production in India and China
A Robot to Give Birth: The Chinese Announcement That Shakes the World
Finnish MP Dies by Suicide in Parliament Building
Outrage in the Tennis World After Jannik Sinner’s Withdrawal Storm
William and Kate Are Moving House – and the New Neighbors Were Evicted
Class Action Lawsuit Against Volkswagen: Steering Wheel Switches Cause Accidents
Taylor Swift on the Way to the Super Bowl? All the Clues Stirring Up Fans
Dogfights in the Skies: Airbus on Track to Overtake Boeing and Claim Aviation Supremacy
Tim Cook Promises an AI Revolution at Apple: "One of the Most Significant Technologies of Our Generation"
Apple Expands Social Media Presence in China With RedNote Account Ahead of iPhone 17 Launch
Are AI Data Centres the Infrastructure of the Future or the Next Crisis?
Cambridge Dictionary Adds 'Skibidi,' 'Delulu,' and 'Tradwife' Amid Surge of Online Slang
Bill Barr Testifies No Evidence Implicated Trump in Epstein Case; DOJ Set to Release Records
Zelenskyy Returns to White House Flanked by European Allies as Trump Pressures Land-Swap Deal with Putin
The CEO Who Replaced 80% of Employees for the AI Revolution: "I Would Do It Again"
Emails Worth Billions: How Airlines Generate Huge Profits
Character.ai Bets on Future of AI Companionship
China Ramps Up Tax Crackdown on Overseas Investments
Japanese Office Furniture Maker Expands into Bomb Shelter Market
Intel Shares Surge on Possible U.S. Government Investment
Hurricane Erin Threatens U.S. East Coast with Dangerous Surf
EU Blocks Trade Statement Over Digital Rule Dispute
EU Sends Record Aid as Spain Battles Wildfires
JPMorgan Plans New Canary Wharf Tower
Zelenskyy and his allies say they will press Trump on security guarantees
Beijing is moving into gold and other assets, diversifying away from the dollar
Escalating Clashes in Serbia as Anti-Government Protests Spread Nationwide
The Drought in Britain and the Strange Request from the Government to Delete Old Emails
Category 5 Hurricane in the Caribbean: 'Catastrophic Storm' with Winds of 255 km/h
"No, Thanks": The Mathematical Genius Who Turned Down 1.5 Billion Dollars from Zuckerberg
The surprising hero, the ugly incident, and the criticism despite victory: "Liverpool’s defense exposed in full"
Digital Humans Move Beyond Sci-Fi: From Virtual DJs to AI Customer Agents
YouTube will start using AI to guess your age. If it’s wrong, you’ll have to prove it
×