London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Jun 17, 2026

Rishi Sunak's Spending Review: Four things to look out for

Rishi Sunak's Spending Review: Four things to look out for

On Wednesday, Chancellor Rishi Sunak begins setting out plans for what he hopes will be an economy beyond Covid-19.

This Spending Review - detailing the money government departments will get for things like the NHS, education, roads, and police - only covers the financial year 2021-22. It will also set out money for the devolved administrations Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

In normal times, reviews cover three or four years. But such is the economic uncertainty that this look-ahead has been limited to the next 12 months.

Even so, Mr Sunak will point to the direction of travel for spending (and possibly tax rises) for future years. Few reviews can have been so anticipated. Here's what to watch out for.

1. The difficult financial backdrop


The economic shock has left the UK poorer. By the end of this year the economy is expected to be at least 10% smaller than pre-pandemic.

Alongside the Spending Review, Mr Sunak will disclose latest forecasts for the economy and public finances from the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).

Earlier this year, the OBR forecast a 13% contraction. While it is not expected to be that bad, the shrinkage will still likely be in the double-digits, and with public borrowing topping £350bn - something not seen in peacetime.

A difficulty for the chancellor is that big tranches of public service spending have already been made. Despite that, some areas will reportedly get more: NHS England, schools and defence. According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), some two-thirds of public service spending has been pre-determined.

The key question is whether the remaining third is enough to go round. The answer is almost certainly not. The IFS thinks "unprotected" services such as the courts, prisons or local government are vulnerable to cuts. The overseas aid budget is also in the line of fire.


Teachers are among workers who could face a pay freeze


2. Squeezing public sector pay


Saving, not spending, will dominate Wednesday's agenda. And one of the biggest savings could be a public sector pay freeze. It would be hugely controversial. Media leaks last week claimed Mr Sunak wants a freeze for everyone except frontline NHS staff.

That won't go down well with the police, teachers, civil servants or anyone who thinks they've done their bit to ensure the public sector keeps going in tough times. Even a return to a 1% cap is likely to be fiercely resisted.

Some commentators think the media reports were Treasury kite-flying. Even so, in the summer, Mr Sunak suggested that as private sector pay had taken a huge hit, in the "interest of fairness" the public sector's 5.4 million workers should share some pain.

Trouble is, relative to pay in the private sector, public sector pay has fallen to its lowest level in decades, according to the IFS.

Only during the pandemic has public sector pay performed more strongly than in the private sector. Union leaders have already warned of industrial action to ensure members' pay does not fall further behind.


There is speculation some government operations could be relocated from London


3. 'Levelling up'


Many promises have been thrown off-course because of the pandemic, and the government will be keen to get its north-south levelling up agenda back on track as soon as possible. Infrastructure spending is key to this.

The north has long complained that the Treasury methodology used to calculate the cost-benefit of spending money on big projects is inherently biased towards London and the rest of the south east. So, expect some changes to these calculations. And watch out for whether any spending promises are new money, or simply projects brought forward.

To underline his commitment to spend on big long-term projects, there is talk that Mr Sunak could publish details of a National Infrastructure Strategy and a Research and Development Strategy.

And in a symbolic move that levelling up is more than a question of infrastructure, the Financial Times has reported that the chancellor could also announce that parts of government could relocate from the capital - with the Treasury leading the way.


Tax hikes are inevitable, but rises too soon will choke off recovery, economists say


4. What happens next?


While Wednesday will be about spending and borrowing, at some point the chancellor will have to decide how it will be paid for. He will start to address this in next March's Budget, although most economic commentators feel the economy will still be too fragile for major tax rises.

It is possible that, with the success of a Covid vaccine, the economy could bounce back, limiting the need for big rises. However, Paul Johnson, director of the IFS, told the BBC that four or five years down the road he still expects the economy to be about 4%-5% smaller than before the pandemic.

Rein in spending and raise taxes too early, and recovery will be choked off. Leave it too late, and the public finances will spin out of control.

"It's a fine judgement," said Mr Johnson. Both the chancellor and Prime Minister Boris Johnson have, however, said they don't want a return to austerity.

There have been reports the Treasury could raise money from changes to Capital Gains Tax, pensions relief or self-employment taxes. But this is tinkering.

Mr Johnson believes £40bn of tax rises are necessary over the short-term, and that sort of money cannot be raised without touching the Big Three: income tax, VAT or national insurance. These bring in almost two-thirds of government revenue.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Government Advances New Airport Slot Rules to Ease Airline Operating Constraints
BBC Opens Flagship Science-Fiction Franchise to Competitive Production Bids
Chancellor Meets City Leaders Amid Concerns Over Gilt Market Liquidity
Rathbones Shares Fall Seventeen Percent After Regulatory Review Reveals Compliance Failings
United Kingdom Joins Group of Seven Initiative Using Artificial Intelligence and Quantum Computing for Cancer Research
Parliament Debates Doubling Tax Allowance for Pensioners After Major Public Petition
Measles Cases Exceed Seven Hundred in London and the West Midlands
British Military Leadership Faces Parliamentary Scrutiny After Defence Secretary's Sudden Resignation
House of Lords Begins Debate on Steel Industry Nationalisation Legislation
Parliament Advances Bill to Abolish NHS England and Create Single Patient Records
Parliament Fast-Tracks National Security Bill to Expand Powers Against Foreign Threats
United Kingdom and European Union Set July Summit to Deepen Post-Brexit Cooperation
United Kingdom Imposes Seventy New Sanctions on Russia and Expands Support for Ukraine's Nuclear Sector
United Kingdom Announces Social Media Ban for Children Under Sixteen
0British Government Investigates Reports of Russian Warship Firing Warning Shots Near Isle of Wight
UK Supreme Court Revises Legal Definition of Deprivation of Liberty
King’s Birthday Honours Recognise Contributions Across Science, Culture and Public Service
UK Ministry of Defence Reports Interdiction of Russian Shadow Fleet Vessel
UK and US Launch Joint Regulatory Programme for Medicines and Healthcare Products
Solicitor General Refers Murder Sentence to Court of Appeal Under Unduly Lenient Scheme
UK Launches £1.6 Million Mobile Museum Initiative to Expand Cultural Access
Judicial Pay Structure Undergoes Government Review Following Senior Recommendations
Government Confirms Nearly 180 New Youth Hubs Across the United Kingdom
UK Government Expands Careers Support Through Partnership with LinkedIn
Digital News Report Highlights Growing Global Concern Over AI and Information Overload
UK Chancellor Reaffirms Fiscal Discipline and Borrowing Reduction Strategy
UK Government Invests £219 Million in Sustainable Aviation Fuel Development
Rolls-Royce Small Modular Reactors Secures Major Swedish Export Contract
Government Confirms Locations for Nearly 180 Youth Hubs Across Great Britain
UK Government Partners with LinkedIn to Expand Employment Support Services
Reuters Institute Report Flags Rising Public Anxiety Over News and Information Overload
UK Government Commits £219 Million to Expand Sustainable Aviation Fuel Industry
Chancellor Convenes Market Engagement Group to Assess UK Economic Outlook and Productivity Risks
Rolls-Royce Wins Multibillion-Pound Swedish Contract for Small Modular Nuclear Reactors
Government to Ban Social Media Access for Under-Sixteens Across the United Kingdom
Government Approves Fast-Tracked Broadcast Merger Reshaping UK's Media Landscape
Resignation of Defence Secretary John Healey Triggers Debate Over UK Military Strategy
Britain Intensifies Diplomatic Efforts to Support US-Iran Ceasefire
Bank of England Faces Tough Interest Rate Choices After Economic Contraction
Belfast Sees Second Day of Anti-Migrant Riots as Police Deploy Water Cannons
UK Economy Shrinks in April as Energy Price Shocks Weigh on Growth
UK to Ban Social Media Access for Children Under 16 From 2027
UK Parliament Opens Week of Fast-Tracked Security and Infrastructure Legislation
Northern Ireland Projects £21 Million Boost From Major Cultural and Sporting Events
UK and Japan Sign Technology Security Pact to Strengthen AI and Supply Chain Cooperation
UK Welcomes US-Iran Peace Breakthrough Aimed at Restoring Strait of Hormuz Shipping
British Forces Intercept Russian Shadow Fleet Oil Tanker in English Channel Sanctions Operation
UK to Ban Social Media for Under-16s Under Landmark Online Safety Expansion
Anti-Immigrant Riots Spread Across Belfast, Raising Security Concerns
Ministry of Defence Opens Europe's Largest Drone Testing Facility in Swindon
×