London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Tuesday, Jul 14, 2026

Rishi Sunak gains on Keir Starmer but Tories still far behind, new poll shows

Rishi Sunak gains on Keir Starmer but Tories still far behind, new poll shows

Exclusive: Two thirds of adults now believe it is ‘time for a change’ at the next election

Rishi Sunak has recovered ground on Sir Keir Starmer but the Tories are still trailing far behind Labour, a new poll revealed on Monday.

The Ipsos survey for The Standard showed Mr Sunak back neck-and-neck with the Labour leader as the “most capable Prime Minister”.

He has also seen a jump in backing among Tory supporters.

However, the Conservatives are still 23 points behind Labour, with two thirds of adults now believing it is “time for a change” at the next election.

Despite showing some signs of improvement, the Tories are still lagging behind Labour on being seen as fit to govern, having a good team of leaders, keeping promises and understanding problems facing Britain, while also being seen as more extreme and divided.

The findings suggest some voters are warming to Mr Sunak after the Brexit deal on Northern Ireland trade, moves to restore damaged ties with France, the Budget, his plans to deal with the “small boats” Channel crisis, childcare reforms and other steps.

But despite the decline in political turbulence, especially compared to the brief Liz Truss premiership, any revival in the Tory party’s overall electoral prospects appears to be in the early stages at best.

Economic optimism, which could be a key factor at the next election expected in 2024, is also flatlining, with 22 per cent expecting the general economic conditions in Britain to improve over the next 12 months, with 58 per cent saying get worse.

Key results include:

*  Labour is on 49 per cent (down two points on February), Conservative 26 per cent (up one point), Liberal Democrats 11 per cent (up two points) and Greens six per cent (up one point).

*  37 per cent say Mr Sunak would make the most capable PM, compared to 36 per cent for Sir Keir who was ahead by 39/33 in January.

*  Seven in ten of the public believe the Conservatives have done a poor job, just 21 per cent say they are a competent Government and 65 per cent think it is time for change at the next election, all figures little changed on January.

*  More people may be making up their mind about Sir Keir, with 39 per cent saying he is ready to be Prime Minister, up three points on January, but those who disagree has risen by the same amount to 40 per cent.

*  Thirty-two per cent are satisfied with the job Mr Sunak is doing as PM (up five points on February) and 54 per cent dissatisfied (down five point), with Sir Keir slipping back to a similar position, 31 per cent/51 per cent.

*  Three quarters of Conservative backers are satisfied with Mr Sunak, up ten points, and 15 per cent dissatisfied, down 11 points.

*  Labour supporters are less convinced by Sir Keir, with 48 per cent satisfied (down eight points) and 45 per cent dissatisfied ( up 16 points).
Seventy-seven per cent are dissatisfied with how the Government is running the country, unchanged from last month.

The detailed party image figures show Mr Sunak’s party making progress on a number of findings but still are grim reading for the Tories.

On being fit to govern, they are up eight points from a dismal 16 per cent in October, the month Ms Truss quit as PM, to 24 per cent but still significantly behind Labour on 38 per cent.

Similar improvements for the Conservatives from last autumn puts them trailing Labour on having a good team of leaders by 17 points to 26 points, on understanding problems facing Britain (27/45), looking after the interests of people like me (19/37), and on being concerned about people in real need in the country (16/53).

Six in ten adults believe the Tories are divided, compared to 42 per cent for Labour, and the respective split for being seen as extreme is 30/14.

Just over a third say Labour is out of date, with 54 per cent having this view for the Conservatives.

People have little faith either party will keep their promises, with just 21 per cent believing Labour will and 11 per cent the Tories.

Seven in ten believe Mr Sunak’s party will promise anything to win votes, and 58 per cent say the same for Sir Keir’s.

Forty-four per cent believe Labour is ready to form the next government, down three points on December, with those who disagree up six points to 37 per cent.

Twenty-eight per cent believe they would be better off under a Labour government, 16 per cent say a Conservative one, and 51 per cent do not believe it would make any difference, similar figures to the start of the year.

Ipsos Director of Politics Keiran Pedley said: “There are positives and negatives to take from these findings for Rishi Sunak but the overall political headwinds he faces are very challenging.

“On the one hand, he will be encouraged to see his personal poll ratings improve, both individually and compared to Keir Starmer.

“On the other hand, we see no meaningful movement in headline voting intention figures, with Labour still more than 20 points ahead.

“The public remain pessimistic about the economy, overwhelmingly think the Government is doing a bad job running the country and crucially two in three think it is time for change at the next General Election.

“All of which makes a Conservative victory at that election look improbable – for now.”

Any Tory attempt to seek to portray that Britain would be plunged into chaos if Labour wins power also looks unlikely to gain traction, as just 25 per cent believe this will happen, with 52 per cent disagreeing, according to the poll.

Two thirds of adults say they do not like the Conservative Party, up five points on November, with a quarter stating they do, down one point, with Labour more liked than disliked by 47 per cent to 42 per cent.

The two leaders are broadly equally liked, with 43 per cent positive towards Mr Sunak (down four points from November), and 49 per cent negative (up eight points), with those liking Sir Keir down two points to 37 per cent, and disliking up three points to 52 per cent.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer Offers Condolences Following Death of Qatar’s Father Amir
UK Regional Innovation Policy Focuses on Research Clusters Across Scotland, Wales, and Northern England
UK Corporate Transparency Rules Set to Become More Strict Under Modern Slavery Reform Plans
UK Civil Service Estate Strategy Shifts Government Activity Away From London
UK Strengthens National Security Powers Through New Threat Designations
Greater Manchester Police Conduct Drink and Drug Driving Operations After Football Events
UK Government Advances Darlington Economic Campus With Construction Milestone
UK Authorities Increase Football-Related Security Operations After Tournament Fixtures
UK Invests Fifty-One Million Pounds in National Cryogenics Facility and Regional Innovation Hubs
UK Moves Toward Tougher Modern Slavery Reporting Rules With Corporate Penalties
UK Government Reports Forty-Three Million Pounds in Savings From Office Estate Reform
UK Government Expands Civil Service Regional Strategy With Manchester and Darlington Campus Projects
UK Designates Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as National Security Threat
United Kingdom Financial Markets Monitor Business Response to Economic Policy Changes
Scottish Renewable Energy Expansion Highlights Need for Faster Grid Development
Wales and Regions Strengthen Focus on Economic Development Through Tourism and Investment
Retail Industry Warns High Street Businesses Remain Under Pressure
Police Chiefs Highlight Growing Challenges Managing Protests and Public Order
Agriculture Leaders Seek Clarity on Post-Brexit Farming Support and Environmental Rules
Transport Unions Warn of Further Industrial Action Over Pay and Working Conditions
Welsh Tourism Sector Reports Strong Growth Driven by Domestic and International Visitors
National Infrastructure Review Gains Support as Leaders Seek Faster Project Delivery
Financial Markets Assess Impact of United Kingdom Corporate Tax Policy Changes
Northern Ireland Assembly Debates Cross-Border Trade and Infrastructure Cooperation Plans
Government Opens Consultations on Housing Reform and Planning System Changes
Scottish Government Faces Pressure to Accelerate Offshore Wind and Grid Expansion
National Energy System Operator Warns Grid Investment Is Needed for Future Electricity Demand Growth
United Kingdom Research Council Invests in Artificial Intelligence and Biotechnology Innovation Hubs
United Kingdom Expands Oversight of Skilled Worker Visa Sponsors Amid Migration Debate
Cross-Party MPs Call for National Infrastructure Strategy Review to Accelerate Economic Growth
Prime Minister Announces One Billion Pound NHS Funding Package Ahead of Winter Pressures
Bank of England Signals Cautious Approach to Interest Rates as Inflation Remains Above Forecasts
World Cup Visitors Turn American Big-Box Stores Into Souvenir Stops
Netflix Weighs Always-On Channels, Bundles and Short-Form Video
Passenger Is Pulled Partly Outside Ryanair Jet After Window Fails Mid-Flight
Innovation-led growth strategy
Public service reform pressure
Defence and industrial security
Labour leadership transition and economic reset
Northern England Pushes for Greater Influence in Britain’s Future Economic Model
UK Technology Strategy Focuses on Life Sciences, Digital Innovation and Research Investment
Britain and United States Maintain Focus on Pharmaceuticals Cooperation and Industrial Growth
UK Public Services Face Continued Pressure as Government Promises Visible Improvements
Regional Economic Power Becomes Key Theme in Britain’s Next Political Phase
Britain Expands Support for Small Businesses as Firms Seek Better Access to Finance
UK Economy Remains Central Political Challenge as Cost of Living and Growth Concerns Persist
National Health Service Introduces New Workplace Reviews to Improve Conditions for Healthcare Staff
UK Life Sciences Sector Secures More Than Three Billion Pounds in Investment to Support Innovation
Britain Strengthens Defence Strategy as Security Concerns Reshape Military and Industrial Policy
Andy Burnham Promises Stronger UK Defence Industry and Expanded Domestic Production
×