London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Jul 23, 2026

Rishi Sunak gains on Keir Starmer but Tories still far behind, new poll shows

Rishi Sunak gains on Keir Starmer but Tories still far behind, new poll shows

Exclusive: Two thirds of adults now believe it is ‘time for a change’ at the next election

Rishi Sunak has recovered ground on Sir Keir Starmer but the Tories are still trailing far behind Labour, a new poll revealed on Monday.

The Ipsos survey for The Standard showed Mr Sunak back neck-and-neck with the Labour leader as the “most capable Prime Minister”.

He has also seen a jump in backing among Tory supporters.

However, the Conservatives are still 23 points behind Labour, with two thirds of adults now believing it is “time for a change” at the next election.

Despite showing some signs of improvement, the Tories are still lagging behind Labour on being seen as fit to govern, having a good team of leaders, keeping promises and understanding problems facing Britain, while also being seen as more extreme and divided.

The findings suggest some voters are warming to Mr Sunak after the Brexit deal on Northern Ireland trade, moves to restore damaged ties with France, the Budget, his plans to deal with the “small boats” Channel crisis, childcare reforms and other steps.

But despite the decline in political turbulence, especially compared to the brief Liz Truss premiership, any revival in the Tory party’s overall electoral prospects appears to be in the early stages at best.

Economic optimism, which could be a key factor at the next election expected in 2024, is also flatlining, with 22 per cent expecting the general economic conditions in Britain to improve over the next 12 months, with 58 per cent saying get worse.

Key results include:

*  Labour is on 49 per cent (down two points on February), Conservative 26 per cent (up one point), Liberal Democrats 11 per cent (up two points) and Greens six per cent (up one point).

*  37 per cent say Mr Sunak would make the most capable PM, compared to 36 per cent for Sir Keir who was ahead by 39/33 in January.

*  Seven in ten of the public believe the Conservatives have done a poor job, just 21 per cent say they are a competent Government and 65 per cent think it is time for change at the next election, all figures little changed on January.

*  More people may be making up their mind about Sir Keir, with 39 per cent saying he is ready to be Prime Minister, up three points on January, but those who disagree has risen by the same amount to 40 per cent.

*  Thirty-two per cent are satisfied with the job Mr Sunak is doing as PM (up five points on February) and 54 per cent dissatisfied (down five point), with Sir Keir slipping back to a similar position, 31 per cent/51 per cent.

*  Three quarters of Conservative backers are satisfied with Mr Sunak, up ten points, and 15 per cent dissatisfied, down 11 points.

*  Labour supporters are less convinced by Sir Keir, with 48 per cent satisfied (down eight points) and 45 per cent dissatisfied ( up 16 points).
Seventy-seven per cent are dissatisfied with how the Government is running the country, unchanged from last month.

The detailed party image figures show Mr Sunak’s party making progress on a number of findings but still are grim reading for the Tories.

On being fit to govern, they are up eight points from a dismal 16 per cent in October, the month Ms Truss quit as PM, to 24 per cent but still significantly behind Labour on 38 per cent.

Similar improvements for the Conservatives from last autumn puts them trailing Labour on having a good team of leaders by 17 points to 26 points, on understanding problems facing Britain (27/45), looking after the interests of people like me (19/37), and on being concerned about people in real need in the country (16/53).

Six in ten adults believe the Tories are divided, compared to 42 per cent for Labour, and the respective split for being seen as extreme is 30/14.

Just over a third say Labour is out of date, with 54 per cent having this view for the Conservatives.

People have little faith either party will keep their promises, with just 21 per cent believing Labour will and 11 per cent the Tories.

Seven in ten believe Mr Sunak’s party will promise anything to win votes, and 58 per cent say the same for Sir Keir’s.

Forty-four per cent believe Labour is ready to form the next government, down three points on December, with those who disagree up six points to 37 per cent.

Twenty-eight per cent believe they would be better off under a Labour government, 16 per cent say a Conservative one, and 51 per cent do not believe it would make any difference, similar figures to the start of the year.

Ipsos Director of Politics Keiran Pedley said: “There are positives and negatives to take from these findings for Rishi Sunak but the overall political headwinds he faces are very challenging.

“On the one hand, he will be encouraged to see his personal poll ratings improve, both individually and compared to Keir Starmer.

“On the other hand, we see no meaningful movement in headline voting intention figures, with Labour still more than 20 points ahead.

“The public remain pessimistic about the economy, overwhelmingly think the Government is doing a bad job running the country and crucially two in three think it is time for change at the next General Election.

“All of which makes a Conservative victory at that election look improbable – for now.”

Any Tory attempt to seek to portray that Britain would be plunged into chaos if Labour wins power also looks unlikely to gain traction, as just 25 per cent believe this will happen, with 52 per cent disagreeing, according to the poll.

Two thirds of adults say they do not like the Conservative Party, up five points on November, with a quarter stating they do, down one point, with Labour more liked than disliked by 47 per cent to 42 per cent.

The two leaders are broadly equally liked, with 43 per cent positive towards Mr Sunak (down four points from November), and 49 per cent negative (up eight points), with those liking Sir Keir down two points to 37 per cent, and disliking up three points to 52 per cent.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Government Reviews Long-Term Balance Between Cost Relief, Industry Support, and Public Investment Priorities
BBC Could Receive Permanent Royal Charter Under Government Proposal
Northern Ireland Proposes End to Severe Weather Exemptions for Electricity Compensation Rules
Andy Burnham Holds Talks With UK Devolved Leaders on Regional Cooperation and Devolution
House of Lords Launches Inquiry Into Risks Facing UK Democratic Institutions
ScottishPower Renewables Plans Major Rebuild of Whitelee Wind Farm With Fewer Larger Turbines
UK and Italy Leaders Discuss Global Combat Air Programme and Future European Cooperation
UK Government Announces Six Hundred Million Pound Aerospace Investment Package at Farnborough Airshow
European Union Approves UK Participation in Ninety Billion Euro Ukraine Support Loan Framework
Rolls-Royce Warns UK Government Over Jet Engine Funding Decision and Future Manufacturing Plans
UK Inflation Falls to Two Point Six Percent in June as Fuel and Food Prices Ease
Andy Burnham Begins Premiership With Two Pound England Bus Fare Cap and Electricity Tax Cut Plan
YouGov Poll Shows Tight Competition Among UK Political Parties
Space Technology Investment Expands Through UK-US Cooperation at Farnborough Airshow
UK Opens Final India Young Professionals Scheme Ballot for Three Thousand Applicants
United Kingdom Approved for Ukraine Financial Support Initiative With EU Partners
UK and Ireland Leaders Discuss Security, Energy and Regional Cooperation
British Heart Foundation Identifies Ten UK Areas With Severe Shortages of Defibrillators
Former Southern Water Executives Charged Over Alleged Water Test Manipulation Scheme
IMF Warns UK Economic Growth Will Slow to One Percent in 2026
UK Inflation Falls to Two Point Six Percent in June as Food and Energy Costs Ease
United Kingdom Joins European Union Loan Mechanism to Support Ukraine’s Defense Needs
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Introduces Two-Pound Bus Fare Cap and Energy Tax Relief Measures Across England
Northern Ireland Secures Additional Infrastructure Funding From UK Treasury
Wales Approves Port Investment Plans to Support Green Energy Supply Chains
UK Financial Regulator Simplifies Stock Market Rules to Attract More Listings
UK Reports Decline in Small Boat Crossings Across the English Channel
UK Government Creates Emergency Support Fund for Financially Pressured Universities
Scottish Government Launches Economic Strategy Focused on Innovation and Renewable Industries
UK Expands Sustainable Farming Incentives to Support Environmental Measures
UK Government Introduces New Neighbourhood Policing Standards Across England and Wales
UK Competition Regulator Opens Review of Artificial Intelligence Foundation Models
UK Deepens Indo-Pacific Security Cooperation After Talks With Singapore and Japan
UK Announces Rail Modernisation Plan for Northern England With New Infrastructure Funding
UK Government Updates Housing Planning Rules to Accelerate Residential Construction
UK Approves Major North Sea Offshore Wind Project to Support Clean Power Goals
UK Health Service Begins Major Digital Upgrade to Cut Hospital Waiting Times
Bank of England Holds Interest Rates Steady as UK Inflation Pressures Remain Persistent
UK Universities and Industry Expand Space and Defense Research Partnerships
House of Lords Approves Social Housing Bill Amendments on Shared Ownership Rights
House of Lords Advances Civil Aviation Bill With New Passenger Protection Measures
UK Government Suspends Tariffs on Fertilizer and Food Imports to Reduce Costs
Russell Group Universities Support New UK Business Department Focused on Innovation
UK Parliament Opens Inquiry Into Transport Barriers Facing Young Jobseekers
Home Builders Federation Calls for Lower Costs as New UK Government Sets Housing Priorities
Andy Burnham Meets UK Devolved Leaders to Strengthen Regional Cooperation
Andy Burnham Holds First International Calls With Trump, Macron, and Zelenskyy
Andy Burnham Reshuffles Cabinet With John Healey Appointed Chancellor of the Exchequer
Andy Burnham Government Removes VAT From Electricity Bills to Cut Household Costs
Andy Burnham Becomes United Kingdom Prime Minister After Sir Keir Starmer Resigns
×