London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Tuesday, Jul 21, 2026

Rishi Sunak gains on Keir Starmer but Tories still far behind, new poll shows

Rishi Sunak gains on Keir Starmer but Tories still far behind, new poll shows

Exclusive: Two thirds of adults now believe it is ‘time for a change’ at the next election

Rishi Sunak has recovered ground on Sir Keir Starmer but the Tories are still trailing far behind Labour, a new poll revealed on Monday.

The Ipsos survey for The Standard showed Mr Sunak back neck-and-neck with the Labour leader as the “most capable Prime Minister”.

He has also seen a jump in backing among Tory supporters.

However, the Conservatives are still 23 points behind Labour, with two thirds of adults now believing it is “time for a change” at the next election.

Despite showing some signs of improvement, the Tories are still lagging behind Labour on being seen as fit to govern, having a good team of leaders, keeping promises and understanding problems facing Britain, while also being seen as more extreme and divided.

The findings suggest some voters are warming to Mr Sunak after the Brexit deal on Northern Ireland trade, moves to restore damaged ties with France, the Budget, his plans to deal with the “small boats” Channel crisis, childcare reforms and other steps.

But despite the decline in political turbulence, especially compared to the brief Liz Truss premiership, any revival in the Tory party’s overall electoral prospects appears to be in the early stages at best.

Economic optimism, which could be a key factor at the next election expected in 2024, is also flatlining, with 22 per cent expecting the general economic conditions in Britain to improve over the next 12 months, with 58 per cent saying get worse.

Key results include:

*  Labour is on 49 per cent (down two points on February), Conservative 26 per cent (up one point), Liberal Democrats 11 per cent (up two points) and Greens six per cent (up one point).

*  37 per cent say Mr Sunak would make the most capable PM, compared to 36 per cent for Sir Keir who was ahead by 39/33 in January.

*  Seven in ten of the public believe the Conservatives have done a poor job, just 21 per cent say they are a competent Government and 65 per cent think it is time for change at the next election, all figures little changed on January.

*  More people may be making up their mind about Sir Keir, with 39 per cent saying he is ready to be Prime Minister, up three points on January, but those who disagree has risen by the same amount to 40 per cent.

*  Thirty-two per cent are satisfied with the job Mr Sunak is doing as PM (up five points on February) and 54 per cent dissatisfied (down five point), with Sir Keir slipping back to a similar position, 31 per cent/51 per cent.

*  Three quarters of Conservative backers are satisfied with Mr Sunak, up ten points, and 15 per cent dissatisfied, down 11 points.

*  Labour supporters are less convinced by Sir Keir, with 48 per cent satisfied (down eight points) and 45 per cent dissatisfied ( up 16 points).
Seventy-seven per cent are dissatisfied with how the Government is running the country, unchanged from last month.

The detailed party image figures show Mr Sunak’s party making progress on a number of findings but still are grim reading for the Tories.

On being fit to govern, they are up eight points from a dismal 16 per cent in October, the month Ms Truss quit as PM, to 24 per cent but still significantly behind Labour on 38 per cent.

Similar improvements for the Conservatives from last autumn puts them trailing Labour on having a good team of leaders by 17 points to 26 points, on understanding problems facing Britain (27/45), looking after the interests of people like me (19/37), and on being concerned about people in real need in the country (16/53).

Six in ten adults believe the Tories are divided, compared to 42 per cent for Labour, and the respective split for being seen as extreme is 30/14.

Just over a third say Labour is out of date, with 54 per cent having this view for the Conservatives.

People have little faith either party will keep their promises, with just 21 per cent believing Labour will and 11 per cent the Tories.

Seven in ten believe Mr Sunak’s party will promise anything to win votes, and 58 per cent say the same for Sir Keir’s.

Forty-four per cent believe Labour is ready to form the next government, down three points on December, with those who disagree up six points to 37 per cent.

Twenty-eight per cent believe they would be better off under a Labour government, 16 per cent say a Conservative one, and 51 per cent do not believe it would make any difference, similar figures to the start of the year.

Ipsos Director of Politics Keiran Pedley said: “There are positives and negatives to take from these findings for Rishi Sunak but the overall political headwinds he faces are very challenging.

“On the one hand, he will be encouraged to see his personal poll ratings improve, both individually and compared to Keir Starmer.

“On the other hand, we see no meaningful movement in headline voting intention figures, with Labour still more than 20 points ahead.

“The public remain pessimistic about the economy, overwhelmingly think the Government is doing a bad job running the country and crucially two in three think it is time for change at the next General Election.

“All of which makes a Conservative victory at that election look improbable – for now.”

Any Tory attempt to seek to portray that Britain would be plunged into chaos if Labour wins power also looks unlikely to gain traction, as just 25 per cent believe this will happen, with 52 per cent disagreeing, according to the poll.

Two thirds of adults say they do not like the Conservative Party, up five points on November, with a quarter stating they do, down one point, with Labour more liked than disliked by 47 per cent to 42 per cent.

The two leaders are broadly equally liked, with 43 per cent positive towards Mr Sunak (down four points from November), and 49 per cent negative (up eight points), with those liking Sir Keir down two points to 37 per cent, and disliking up three points to 52 per cent.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
US Judge Pauses Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros Discovery Merger Over Antitrust Concerns
NHS England Faces Growing Retention Pressure Among Younger Midwives
UK Data Centre Expansion Faces Water and Grid Capacity Challenges
UK Defence Shares Rise After John Healey Appointment and Continued Spending Commitments
OECD Urges UK Government to Review Pension Triple Lock to Protect Public Finances
Bank of England Keeps Cautious Approach as Energy Costs Threaten Inflation Progress
County Councils Call for Wider Devolution and Long-Term Social Care Funding Reform
IMF Urges UK Government to Maintain Fiscal Discipline as Growth Forecast Slows
Russian Warship Holds Live-Fire Exercises Near UK Coast as Royal Navy Monitors Activity
Mitie Agrees Three Point One Billion Pound Takeover by OCS in Another Blow to London Listings
JPMorgan Chase Warns Bank Levies Could Hit UK Growth and Drive Capital Away
UK Unemployment Holds at Four Point Nine Percent as Labour Market Shows Resilience
UK Government Borrowing Falls Below Forecasts as Treasury Receives Early Fiscal Boost
John Healey Cuts VAT on Household Electricity Bills After Cancelling National Digital ID Scheme
Andy Burnham Forms New Labour Government With Ten-Year National Renewal Plan
EU Imposes Record €550 Million Digital Services Fine on AliExpress
UK Publishes Updated Consumption-Based Carbon Emissions Data
English Regions Prepare for Expanded Devolution and Infrastructure Powers
Russell Group Backs New Government and Calls for Stronger University-Industry Links
Bank of England Maintains Restrictive Monetary Policy Amid Persistent Inflation
Climate Progress Report Renews Debate Over the UK's Net Zero Strategy
New UK Government Launches Drive to End Rough Sleeping and Expand Social Housing
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Appoints John Healey as Chancellor in Cabinet Reshuffle
OECD Calls for Structural Reforms as UK Economy Faces Slower Growth
International Monetary Fund Expects UK Economic Growth to Slow to One Percent in 2026
Andy Burnham Takes Office as UK Prime Minister and Unveils Decade-Long Reform Agenda
London’s Housing Starts Collapse as Planning and Building Costs Stall Development
Charlie Sheen’s Daughter: "My Dad Didn’t Buy Me a House, My Breasts Bought It"
Vivienne Westwood Casts Cicciolina, 74, in Its New Autumn Campaign
Dejavu: Germany’s Military Expansion Reshapes Europe’s Strategic Balance With France
Naturally Conceived Identical Quadruplets Born in Rare Brisbane Delivery
Tate Brothers Fight British Extradition Bid After Miami Arrests
Burnham Reshapes Britain’s Government Around Living Costs, Devolution and Security
Jingye Demands Full Compensation After Britain illegally Nationalized British Steel
Just Another Liar or a Robin Hood? Andy Burnham Pledges Cost-of-Living Help in First Speech as UK Prime Minister
Morgan Stanley Builds a Wall Street Lead in AI Infrastructure Finance
High Prices Push Coffee Drinkers Toward Whole Beans and Home Brewing
Trump Draws Boos and Podium Scrutiny at Spain’s World Cup Triumph
Brilliant move: Péter Magyar Moves to Nominate Chess Grandmaster Judit Polgár as Hungary’s President
Spain Defeats Argentina in Extra Time to Win Second World Cup
Police Block Cockroach Janta Party’s March to Parliament as Education Protests Intensify
Current AI Seeks to Build an Open Global AI Infrastructure Outside Big Tech Control
Turkey Explores S-400 Transfer to UAE in Bid to Rejoin F-35 Program
Josh Kerr Breaks Twenty-Seven-Year World Mile Record at London Diamond League
Thames Water Crisis Deepens as South East Water Outages Hit Thousands in Kent
EU Ban on Destroying Unsold Clothing Forces British Fashion Brands to Change Operations
UK Government Confirms Existing North Sea Oil and Gas Licences Will Be Honoured
UK Covid Inquiry Finds Nearly Ten Billion Pounds Lost in Pandemic Protective Equipment Procurement
Thames Water Moves Toward Possible Temporary Nationalisation Amid Rescue Plan Dispute
Andy Burnham Cancels One Point Eight Billion Pound Digital ID Programme After Taking Office
×