London Daily

Focus on the big picture.

Retail sales plunge as consumer confidence 'nears financial crisis all-time low'

Retail sales plunge as consumer confidence 'nears financial crisis all-time low'

The data, coupled with a closely-watched reading of consumer confidence, prompts a dive in the value of the pound and places the Bank of England in a tricky position as it decides whether to hike interest rates for a fourth consecutive time.

The pound has fallen sharply after several pieces of data raised fears of a slump ahead for UK economic growth, driven by surging inflation.

The market mood turned ugly when the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a 1.4% monthly decline in retail sales in March, led by a big drop in demand for online purchases.

There was little sign for optimism among retailers, except for the owners of garden centres and DIY shops, though the data did suggest that COVID-weary consumers shifted discretionary spending towards hospitality and attractions instead as the weather improved.

Economists had expected a 0.3% decline in sales month-on-month - and sterling dived by more than 1.5 cents against the dollar, to an 18-month low of $1.28, as investors fretted over the prospects for economic growth ahead.


The UK currency was also more than one cent off against the euro.

Adding to the gloom was data from a survey of purchasing managers showing the slowest rise in private sector output for three months in April - with record inflationary pressures and war in Ukraine hitting demand.

A closely-watched measure of consumer confidence, also covering April, delivered its second-lowest reading since records began nearly 50 years ago.

It suggests that consumer spending, the biggest contributor to the UK's GDP, is at risk of being choked off as families fret over rising bills for everyday goods and services.

ONS Director of Economic Statistics Darren Morgan said of the retails sales data: "Retail sales fell back notably in March with rises in the cost of living hitting consumers' spending.

"Online sales were hit particularly hard due to lower levels of discretionary spending.

"Fuel sales also fell substantially, with evidence suggesting some people reduced non-essential journeys, following record high petrol prices, while food sales continued to fall, dropping for the fifth consecutive month."

It all makes for worrying reading at the Bank of England.

The GfK consumer confidence index, derived from a survey, came in at -38 - worse than economists had expected and just shy of the all-time low seen in 2008 as the global financial crisis was gathering pace.

The responses were registered at a time when we learned that inflation had hit a 30-year high of 7%.

It is forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility to climb above 9% after the unprecedented surge in the energy price cap in April - and rises in other household bills such as mobile, water and broadband are reflected in the calculations.

The price cap is currently expected to rise further - by up to £500 - in October when the additional effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine are included, while the retail sector expects price rises to intensify throughout 2022.

GfK reported a sharp decrease in consumers' intentions to make major purchases.

All the data will be taken into account by rate-setters at the Bank, who have signalled more caution on rising rates ahead after lifting Bank rate to 0.75% at their last meeting.

They will be anxious not to choke off economic growth through rising interest rates, which are intended to stop rising inflation expectations, such as wage hikes, rather than rising prices as the inflation has been caused by factors outside their control including energy and food costs.

Inflation, while not demand-led, is nevertheless proving more sticky and persistent than policymakers had expected and financial markets still forecast a 0.25% rate hike at the next meeting of the monetary policy committee in two weeks' time.

That is because the inflationary fires have been stoked by Russia's war against Ukraine.

However, Bank governor Andrew Bailey admitted on Thursday that policymakers were walking a tight line between tackling inflation and avoiding recession.

That is because raising borrowing costs to help ease inflationary pressures could prove counterproductive with millions of mortgage holders - those on tracker or standard variable deals - already paying more.

Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said of the situation: "The ONS' retail sales data is a wake-up call that life is going to be tough for shops - virtual or physical - in the coming months.

"Once those vastly increased energy bills hit the doormat and households take time to reassess their financial situation, there is every chance that retail sales could get even worse," he wrote.

Newsletter

Related Articles

London Daily
0:00
0:00
Close
Unelected PM of the UK holds an emergency meeting because a candidate got voted in… which he says is a threat to democracy…
You Are So Beautiful
Rob Schneider explains California reparations legislation.
Postmodern Jukebox European Tour Version
Who knew badminton could get so intense?
An old French tune (by Georges Brassens) Pomplamoose ft. John Schroeder
Farmers break through police barriers in Brussels.
Sattahip Motor Show 20
London's Iconic British Telecom Tower Sold To Become Hotel
SONATE AU CLAIR DE LUNE - Moonlight sonata
Ukraine Arrests Father-Son Duo In Lockbit Cybercrime Bust
A kiss to build a dream on
US Offers $15 Million For Info On Leaders Of Cybercrime Group Lockbit
Wonderful Tonight - Eric Clapton (Boyce Avenue acoustic cover)
Russia Claims UK Cultural Agency Spied for Ukraine
Mean Blues
Apple warns against drying iPhones with rice
La Chansonnette
Alexei Navalny: UK sanctions Russian prison chiefs after activist's death
Pattaya Addicts
German economy is in 'troubled waters' - ministry
Franz Liszt - Liebestraum - Love Dream
In a recent High Court hearing, the U.S. argued that Julian Assange endangered lives by releasing classified information.
Dream a little dream of me
New video
Unchained Melody sung like you've NEVER heard!
Tucker Carlson says Boris Johnson wants "a million dollars, in Bitcoin or cash, from Tucker Carlson to talk about Ukraine.
Dave Brubeck - Take Five
Russia is rebuilding capacity to destabilize European countries, new UK report warns
Édith Piaf - Non, Je Ne Regrette Rien (Sofie)
EU Commission wants anti-drone defenses at Brussels HQ
Rondo Alla Turca
Von der Leyen’s 2nd-term pitch: More military might, less climate talk
Kiss of fire
Global Law Enforcement Dismantles Lockbit Ransomware Operation
Tom Jones - I´ll Never Fall In Love Again 1967, 1989, 2001
Prince William Urges End to Gaza Conflict
Israel Cachao López - Guajira Clásica
UK court to hear Assange's final appeal against extradition to the US, where he faces charges related to his journalistic work—the publication of a classified video in 2010 that exposed US war crimes against humanity.
Edward Maya - Stereo Love (feat. Vika Jigulina) (Extended Mix)
About 50-60% kids either chose to be YouTuber or influencer
Strauss - Radetzky March - Karajan
A viral video of Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce lying on a Canberra footpath is celebrated by his media mates.
La vie en rose
European Countries React to Navalny's Death by Summoning Russian Diplomats
The Temptations - My Girl (Smokey Robinson Tribute) 2006 Kennedy Cent
Israel has gone ‘beyond self-defence’ in Gaza, says Labour’s Streeting
Orlando Cachaito Lopez Redencion
English farmers to be offered ‘largest ever’ grant scheme amid food security concerns
Edith Piaf - NON, JE NE REGRETTE RIEN
Cameron government knew Post Office ditched Horizon IT investigation
RADETZKY MARCH-2008-Wien, New Year Concert
EU Calls for Immediate Ceasefire in Gaza Conflict
Only you (And you alone)
EU Vows To Hold Putin "Accountable" After Meeting Alexei Navalny's Wife
Strangers In The Night
EU Launches Probe Into TikTok Over Child Protection Under Digital Content Law
Charles Aznavour - La Boheme
The EU Initiates Naval Mission to Defend Red Sea Trade Routes
Summer time
EU and UK Announce Joint Effort on Migration
Sting and Stevie Wonder - Fragile (from Sting's 60th birthday concert)
Brazil's Lula Likens Gaza Operation to Holocaust, Israel Says "Red Line" Crossed
Aux Champs Elysees
Ministers Confirm Proposal to Prohibit Mobile Phone Usage in English Schools
Stand By Me - Ben E. King (Boyce Avenue acoustic cover)
Microsoft-backed OpenAI valued at $80bn after company completes deal
La Mer (Beyond the Sea) – Avalon Jazz Band
‘Alexei would want to tell Russia not to give up fighting’
She
Rwandan Footballer's Dismissal Sparks Concerns Over UK Asylum Plan
Nathalie Song by Enzo Petrachi Stjepan Hauser Cello
Whisky Challenges China's Baijiu Market During New Year Celebrations
Shape of My Heart - Sting (Boyce Avenue acoustic cover)
Avdiivka - Symbol Of Ukrainian Resistance Now In Control Of Russian Troops
Radiohead - Creep
Putin Critic Alexei Navalny's "Killers" Refusing To Hand Over Body, Say Allies
Quizás,Quizás,Quizás - Andrea Bocelli - Jennifer Lopez
"Historic Step": Zelensky Signs Security Pact With Germany
Perhaps, Perhaps, Perhaps - Multi-Couples
"Historic Step": Zelensky Signs Security Pact With Germany
Pentatonix Havana
20 Tech Giants Sign Effort To Fight AI Election Interference Across Globe
Paula Cole - Autumn Leaves
Joe Biden Accuses Putin of Causing Navalny's Death
Oscar Benton Bensonhurst Blues
Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny has died at the Arctic prison colony
OH NANANA vs ABUSADAMENTE
Tucker Carlson grocery shopping in Russia. This is so interesting.
Nina Simone - ”I Put A Spell On You”. Vezi aici cum cântă Jeremy Ragsd
Julian Assange's Wife Warns of His Death if Extradited to US
NIGHTWISH - The Phantom Of The Opera
‘A lot higher than we expected’: Russian arms production worries Europe’s war planners
Motorshow 2016 Tanjay Negros Oriental
Greece Legalizes Same-Sex Marriage and Adoption Rights
Monica Bellucci - Ti Amo
Hungarian Foreign Minister: Europeans will lose Europe, the Union's policy must change drastically
Michael Jackson - Billie Jean Milena The Voice France 2018
In Britain Homeowners are receiving CPO’s (Compulsory Purchase Orders) so their homes can be redistributed to migrants
Michael Buble (Help Me Make It Through The Night) feat Loren Allred
Memories Canon In D - Maroon 5 (Boyce Avenue piano acoustic cover)
Matteo Simoni - Marina
Maroon 5 - One More Night
Maroon 5 - Memories
Mark Knopfler - Brothers In Arms (Berlin 2007 Live)
Mark Knopfler & Emmylou Harris - Romeo And Juliet (Real Live Roadrunni
Marina, Marina - The LUCKY DUCKIES intimist live concert at Guimarães
Major Lazer & DJ Snake – Lean On Mauranne The Voice France 2016
Love Theme from Romeo and Juliet - Joslin - Henri Mancini, Nino Rota
LoLa & Hauser - Love Story
Linkin Park Jay-Z - Numb Encore (Live 8 2005)
Hallelujah Mennel Ibtissem, The Voice France Leonard Cohen
Leonard Cohen - Dance Me to the End of Love
Leonard Cohen & Natasha Rostova - Dance me to the end of love
La casa de papel - Bella Ciao
La Camisa Negra
L'italiano (Toto Cutugno) - The Gypsy Queens
Juanes - La Camisa Negra
Jonathan and Charlotte - Britain's Got Talent 2012 Live Semi Final - U
John Powell - Assassin's Tango
Joe Cocker - You Can Leave Your Hat On (LIVE in Dortmund)
Joe Cocker - Unchain My Heart 2002 Live
Joe Cocker - A Whiter Shade Of Pale
Jay Z & Alicia Keys - Empire State of Mind LIVE
Jason Mraz - Im Yours (live)
Jarrod Radnich - Bohemian Rhapsody - Virtuosic Piano Solo
James Blunt - You're Beautiful
James Blunt - You're Beautiful & Bonfire Heart (Live at The Nobel Peac)
If You Go Away - Helen Merrill & Stan Getz (Tribute to Virna Lisi)
I'LL BE MISSING YOU
I Say a Little Prayer
Hotel California ( Eagles ) 1994 Live
Historia de un amor - Luz Casal. Vezi interpretarea Biancăi Sumanariu
Here Comes The Sun - The Beatles (Boyce Avenue acoustic cover) on Spot
Heart - Stairway to Heaven Led Zeppelin - Kennedy Center Honors
HAVANA by Camila Cabello Zumba Pre Cooldown TML Crew Kramer Pastra
HAUSER and Señorita - I Will Always Love You
HAUSER - Waka Waka
HAUSER - Sway
HAUSER - Lambada
HAUSER - Historia de un Amor
HAUSER - Despacito
Great Pretender
Georgia May Foote & Giovanni Pernice Samba to 'Volare' - Strictly Come
Gary Moore - Still Got The Blues
GIPSY KINGS VOLARE Penelope Cruz
Fugees - Killing Me Softly With His Song
French Latino - Historia de un Amor
For A Few Dollars More The Danish National Symphony Orchestra (Live)
Flashdance • What a Feeling • Irene Cara
Filip Rudan - “Someone You Loved” Audicija 4 The Voice Hrvatska Sez
Eric Clapton - Wonderful Tonight
Enya - Only Time
Enrique Iglesias - Bailando (English Version) ft. Sean Paul
Enrique Iglesias - Bailamos
Elena Yerevan Historia de un amor
Ed Sheeran - Shape of You (Official Music Video)
Ed Sheeran - Perfect Symphony [with Andrea Bocelli]
Ed Sheeran - Perfect (Official Music Video)
Easy On Me - Adele (Boyce Avenue 90’s style piano acoustic cover) on S
ERA - Ameno
ELENA YEREVAN- Cancion Del Mariachi-IN STUDIO-2017 DPR
Dust In The Wind - Kansas (Boyce Avenue acoustic cover)
Don't Let Me Be Misunderstood
Despacito x Shape Of You - Pentatonix
Deep Purple - Child In Time - Live (1970)
David Foster When A Man Loves A WomanIt's A Mans World (SealMichael Bo
Dance me to the end of Love ( Pi-Air Design )
Coolio - Gangsta's Paradise (feat. L.V.) [Official Music Video]
Conquest Of Paradise (Vangelis), played on Böhm Emporio organ
Cielito Lindo
Chico & The Gypsies - Bamboleo
Canción Del Mariachi - Antonio Banderas, Los Lobos • Desperado
Camila Cabello - Havana (Audio) ft. Young Thug
Camila Cabello - Havana ( cover by J.Fla )
California Dreamin' - The Mamas & The Papas José Feliciano (Boyce Ave
Buster Benton - Money Is The Name of The Game
Hallelujah Pentatonix
Bobby McFerrin - Don't Worry Be Happy (Official Music Video)
Bob Dylan - Knockin' On Heaven's Door Emilia The Voice Kids France
Besame Mucho - Cesaria Evora
Ben E. King - Stand by Me Sax Cover Alexandra Ilieva Thomann
Bella Ciao
Bella Ciao - INSTRUMENTAL
Beautiful in White x Canon in D (Piano Cover by Riyandi Kusuma)
Bad Romance - Vintage 1920's Gatsby Style Lady Gaga Cover ft. Ariana Savalas & Sarah Reich(1)
BELLA CIAO 2020 - KARAOKE ITALIANO
BAMBOLEO - Gipsy Kings • Antonio Banderas, Katya Virshilas
BAILANDO (original)
Awesome Ukrainian yodeler - SOFIA SHKIDCHENKO (with English subtitles)
Avicii - The Nights
Atom - The Great Gig in the Sky
Aretha Franklin - (You Make Me Feel Like) A Natural Woman (Official Ly
Antonio Banderas - Cancion del Mariachi (Desperado)
André Rieu - Zorba's Dance (Sirtaki)
André Rieu - Can't Help Falling In Love
André Rieu & Mirusia - Ave Maria
Andrew Reyes Elton John - Don't Let The Sun Go Down The Voice 2020 (
Andreas Kümmert Whiter Shade Of Pale The Voice of Germany 2013 Showd
And I Love You So
All About That Bass - Postmodern Jukebox European Tour Version
Alan Walker - Faded (Piano Cover)
Ain't No Sunshine -- Bill Withers (cover by Canen 12 y.o.)
African music
Adriana Vidović - “Creep” Audicija 4 The Voice Hrvatska Sezona 3
Adriana Vidović - “Believer” Nokaut 3 The Voice Hrvatska Sezona 3
A Fistful of Dollars - The Danish National Symphony Orchestra and Tuva
4 Beautiful Soundtracks Relaxing Piano [10min]
2CELLOS - Whole Lotta Love vs. Beethoven 5th Symphony [OFFICIAL VIDEO]
2CELLOS - Smooth Criminal (Live at Suntory Hall, Tokyo)
2CELLOS - Smells Like Teen Spirit [Live at Sydney Opera House]
2CELLOS - Despacito [OFFICIAL VIDEO]
13 Year Old Girl Playing Il Silenzio (The Silence) - André Rieu
094.All About That Bass
00 - SADNESS PART 1
(Ghost) Riders In the Sky (American Outlaws Live at Nassau Coliseum, 1
(Everything I Do) I Do It For You - Bryan Adams (Boyce Avenue ft. Conn
What a wonderful world
Moon river
×