London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Saturday, Jul 18, 2026

Retail sales plunge as consumer confidence 'nears financial crisis all-time low'

Retail sales plunge as consumer confidence 'nears financial crisis all-time low'

The data, coupled with a closely-watched reading of consumer confidence, prompts a dive in the value of the pound and places the Bank of England in a tricky position as it decides whether to hike interest rates for a fourth consecutive time.

The pound has fallen sharply after several pieces of data raised fears of a slump ahead for UK economic growth, driven by surging inflation.

The market mood turned ugly when the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a 1.4% monthly decline in retail sales in March, led by a big drop in demand for online purchases.

There was little sign for optimism among retailers, except for the owners of garden centres and DIY shops, though the data did suggest that COVID-weary consumers shifted discretionary spending towards hospitality and attractions instead as the weather improved.

Economists had expected a 0.3% decline in sales month-on-month - and sterling dived by more than 1.5 cents against the dollar, to an 18-month low of $1.28, as investors fretted over the prospects for economic growth ahead.


The UK currency was also more than one cent off against the euro.

Adding to the gloom was data from a survey of purchasing managers showing the slowest rise in private sector output for three months in April - with record inflationary pressures and war in Ukraine hitting demand.

A closely-watched measure of consumer confidence, also covering April, delivered its second-lowest reading since records began nearly 50 years ago.

It suggests that consumer spending, the biggest contributor to the UK's GDP, is at risk of being choked off as families fret over rising bills for everyday goods and services.

ONS Director of Economic Statistics Darren Morgan said of the retails sales data: "Retail sales fell back notably in March with rises in the cost of living hitting consumers' spending.

"Online sales were hit particularly hard due to lower levels of discretionary spending.

"Fuel sales also fell substantially, with evidence suggesting some people reduced non-essential journeys, following record high petrol prices, while food sales continued to fall, dropping for the fifth consecutive month."

It all makes for worrying reading at the Bank of England.

The GfK consumer confidence index, derived from a survey, came in at -38 - worse than economists had expected and just shy of the all-time low seen in 2008 as the global financial crisis was gathering pace.

The responses were registered at a time when we learned that inflation had hit a 30-year high of 7%.

It is forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility to climb above 9% after the unprecedented surge in the energy price cap in April - and rises in other household bills such as mobile, water and broadband are reflected in the calculations.

The price cap is currently expected to rise further - by up to £500 - in October when the additional effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine are included, while the retail sector expects price rises to intensify throughout 2022.

GfK reported a sharp decrease in consumers' intentions to make major purchases.

All the data will be taken into account by rate-setters at the Bank, who have signalled more caution on rising rates ahead after lifting Bank rate to 0.75% at their last meeting.

They will be anxious not to choke off economic growth through rising interest rates, which are intended to stop rising inflation expectations, such as wage hikes, rather than rising prices as the inflation has been caused by factors outside their control including energy and food costs.

Inflation, while not demand-led, is nevertheless proving more sticky and persistent than policymakers had expected and financial markets still forecast a 0.25% rate hike at the next meeting of the monetary policy committee in two weeks' time.

That is because the inflationary fires have been stoked by Russia's war against Ukraine.

However, Bank governor Andrew Bailey admitted on Thursday that policymakers were walking a tight line between tackling inflation and avoiding recession.

That is because raising borrowing costs to help ease inflationary pressures could prove counterproductive with millions of mortgage holders - those on tracker or standard variable deals - already paying more.

Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said of the situation: "The ONS' retail sales data is a wake-up call that life is going to be tough for shops - virtual or physical - in the coming months.

"Once those vastly increased energy bills hit the doormat and households take time to reassess their financial situation, there is every chance that retail sales could get even worse," he wrote.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Ukrainian Drone Barrage Kills Eight and Strikes Russian Logistics Network
The Ten World Cup Finals That Defined Football History
Smartphones Are Getting More Expensive, Sales Are Collapsing, and Even Apple Admits: "Prices Will Rise"
The Monaco Bombing Has Become a Test of Ukraine’s Intelligence Accountability
Leadership Change and Strategic Rivalry Redraw the Political Map
Energy Risk, Uneven Growth and the New Geography of Global Capital
The AI Race Enters Its Infrastructure Era
Security and resilience remain long-term national priorities
Britain balances growth ambitions with public finance pressures
Regional devolution becomes a defining theme of the next Labour era
Industrial strategy returns to the centre of British economic policy
Political Instability Remains a Challenge for UK Investment Confidence
Brexit Economic Debate Continues as Public Concerns Over Long-Term Impact Remain
UK Climate Risks Rise as Met Office Warns Extreme Weather Is Becoming More Common
Housing Shortages and Regional Inequality Become Key Priorities Under Incoming Labour Leadership
National Health Service Reform Remains One of Britain’s Biggest Political Challenges
Bank of England Remains at Centre of UK Economic Debate Over Inflation and Growth
UK Economy Shows Recovery Signs but Households and Businesses Remain Under Pressure
Britain Deepens European Defence Cooperation as NATO Allies Seek Stronger Security Capabilities
United Kingdom Expands Sanctions Against Russian Cyber Networks Over Security Threats
UK Industrial Strategy Faces Test After Government Takes Control of British Steel
British Businesses Seek Policy Clarity as Andy Burnham Prepares to Lead Labour Government
Andy Burnham’s Labour Leadership Signals Major Shift Toward Regional Power and Devolution
British Steel Nationalisation Creates New UK-China Tensions Over Control of Strategic Industry
For 36 Years, He Scammed About 300 Luxury Hotels — Until He Was Caught
England's World Cup Exit Expected to Cost Hospitality and Retail £334 Million
Former ICC Prosecutor Aide Speaks Publicly About Allegations Against Karim Khan
Opposition Raises Questions Over June Heatwave Power Grid Pressures
Mastercard Explores Sale of Majority Stake in UK Payments Operator Vocalink
Boeing Forecasts Global Commercial Aircraft Fleet Will Double by 2045
London GP Surgeries Receive £18 Million to Expand Primary Care Capacity
Health Advisers Recommend Nationwide Meningitis B Vaccination for Teenagers
OECD Warns UK Economy Faces Slower Growth and Weak Productivity
Treasury Places Major Global Cloud Providers Under Direct Financial Oversight
Financial Markets Rally as Shabana Mahmood Emerges as Leading Treasury Candidate
Incoming Government Prepares Thames Water Nationalisation and New North Sea Drilling Approvals
UK Government Plans Deep Cuts to Bilateral Aid for African Nations
United States and Iran Exchange Direct Strikes for Seventh Consecutive Night
Incoming Prime Minister Andy Burnham Confirmed as Labour Leader Ahead of Downing Street Handover
Britain Nationalises British Steel to Protect Scunthorpe Production and Strategic Supply
Andy Burnham Takes Labour Leadership and Prepares to Become Britain’s Seventh Prime Minister in a Decade
Tech Companies Want to Move Computing Off Your Screen and Onto Your Body
White House Teleprompter Operator Earned More Than $100,000 From Bets Linked to the President's Speeches
French Prime Minister Survives No-Confidence Vote After Controversial Budget Cuts
European Commission Opens Excessive Deficit Procedure Against France
French Senate Blocks Key Immigration Reform Measures
French Government Pushes EU Action Against Ultra-Fast Fashion Imports
French Parliament Debates Expanded Autonomy Powers for Corsica
France Reopens Autonomy Talks With New Caledonia After Months of Unrest
Bordeaux Wine Producers Seek Three Hundred Million Euro Aid Package After Export Collapse
×