London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Saturday, Jan 03, 2026

Pound falls to lowest level against dollar since 1985

Pound falls to lowest level against dollar since 1985

The pound has plummeted to its lowest level against the US dollar since 1985.

Sterling fell 0.64% to $1.145 on Wednesday afternoon - a level not seen in 37 years.

The Bank of England said a weaker outlook for the UK economy as well as a stronger dollar were putting pressure on sterling.

Governor Andrew Bailey also warned that little could be done to stop the UK falling into a recession this year as the war in Ukraine continued.

He added that it would "overwhelmingly be caused by the actions of Russia and the impact on energy prices".

The Bank expects the economy to shrink in the last three months of 2022 and keep shrinking until the end of 2023.

The warning comes ahead of a government plan to limit a sharp rise in energy bills.

It is understood that a typical energy bill could be capped at around £2,500, with new Prime Minister Liz Truss set to announce the details on Thursday.

Currently, a typical household's gas and electricity bill is due to rise from £1,971 to £3,549 in October.

Energy prices climbed sharply when lockdown was lifted and the economy started to return to normal. They have increased further as Russia sharply cut its gas supplies to Europe.

It has pushed up the price of gas across the continent, including in the UK, having a huge knock-on effect on consumers.

Speaking in front of the Treasury Select Committee on Wednesday, Mr Bailey said "sadly" a recession remained the most likely outcome in the UK.

When asked by MPs if there was much that the central bank could do to stop it, he said: "Insofar as the war is having this huge effect, the answer to that would be no."

Governor Andrew Bailey said a recession would "overwhelmingly be caused by the actions of Russia and the impact on energy prices".


The Bank predicted a UK recession last month as it raised interest rates by the highest margin in 27 years in a bid to keep soaring prices under control.

Higher interest rates can make borrowing more expensive, meaning people have less money to spend and prices will stop rising as quickly. But there is a limit as to how effective UK rate rises can be when inflation is caused by global issues.

Defending its recent moves, Mr Bailey added: "The person going to put the UK in recession is Vladimir Putin, not the MPC [Monetary Policy Committee]."

He said the Bank would take the new prime minister's energy plan announcement "into account" when deciding on interest rates next week.

During her campaign, Ms Truss hit out at the Bank of England, accusing it of being slow to react to rising prices and protect vulnerable households.

But on Wednesday, the new Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng reiterated his "full support for the independent Bank of England and their mission to control inflation, which is central to tackling cost of living challenges".

He also said he and Mr Bailey would meet twice a week from now on to discuss the cost-of-living crisis.


Inflation could ease


Other economists also expect the UK to fall into a recession despite Ms Truss's energy support plan - albeit a shorter and less severe one.

But some suggested on Wednesday that plans to cap energy bills could mean that increases in the cost of living will peak earlier and be "significantly lower" than previously forecast.

The cost of living is rising at its fastest rate in 40 years, at 10.1%, with food, fuel and energy prices all up.


Investment bank Goldman Sachs said a cap on bills for households could see inflation, which tracks how the cost of living changes over time, peak at 10.8% in October, rather than the 14.8% it forecast before. It then expects inflation to slow to 2.4% by December 2023.

Deutsche Bank, HSBC and the Bank of England's own chief economist, Huw Pill, also believe the plan could slow price rises.

But there is uncertainty around what exactly the plan will look like and what would happen once any cap is lifted.

Mr Pill also said it was too soon to say how it might affect interest rates, which have gone up for the last six months in a row as the Bank tries to calm prices.

Others say that capping energy prices at their current level would still leave many people struggling.

According to the Office for National Statistics, four in 10 adults who pay energy bills are already finding it "very or somewhat difficult to afford them".

And the End Fuel Poverty Coalition charity estimates that if the energy price cap is frozen at £2,500 this October, 6.9 million UK households will still be in fuel poverty this winter - up from 4.6 million last winter.

There are also concerns about the cost of Ms Truss's plan, with research firm Capital Economics describing the support package as an "effective but expensive sticking plaster".

Many expect the government to borrow at least £100bn, adding to the UK's already-high debt pile. This would come as Ms Truss attempts to push through a promised £30bn of tax cuts.

On Wednesday, the chancellor said higher borrowing will be "necessary" in the short term to help people with bills.

Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, told the BBC's Today programme: "The big question here is: 'Is it going to be £100bn? What is the exit strategy from supporting bills?'

"My guess is it might end up being an awful lot more than that unless we react quite quickly to make it a better [energy] system," he said, adding that the plan would benefit affluent people more than the less well off.


Worried about energy bills? The BBC's Colletta Smith tells you - in a minute - about four discounts and payments that could help


Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Manufacturing Growth Reaches 15-Month Peak as Output and Orders Improve in December
Beijing Threatened to Scrap UK–China Trade Talks After British Minister’s Taiwan Visit
Newly Released Files Reveal Tony Blair Pressured Officials Over Iraq Death Case Involving UK Soldiers
Top Stocks and Themes to Watch in 2026 as Markets Enter New Year with Fresh Momentum
No UK Curfew Ordered as Deepfake TikTok Falsely Attributes Decree to Prime Minister Starmer
Europe’s Largest Defence Groups Set to Return Nearly Five Billion Dollars to Shareholders in Twenty Twenty-Five
Abu Dhabi ‘Capital of Capital’: How Abu Dhabi Rose as a Sovereign Wealth Power
Diamonds Are Powering a New Quantum Revolution
Trump Threatens Strikes Against Iran if Nuclear Programme Is Restarted
Apple Escalates Legal Fight by Appealing £1.5 Billion UK Ruling Over App Store Fees
UK Debt Levels Sit Mid-Range Among Advanced Economies Despite Rising Pressures
UK Plans Royal Diplomacy with King Charles and Prince William to Reinvigorate Trade Talks with US
King Charles and Prince William Poised for Separate 2026 US Visits to Reinforce UK-US Trade and Diplomatic Ties
Apple Moves to Appeal UK Ruling Ordering £1.5 Billion in Customer Overcharge Damages
King Charles’s 2025 Christmas Message Tops UK Television Ratings on Christmas Day
The Battle Over the Internet Explodes: The United States Bars European Officials and Ignites a Diplomatic Crisis
Princesses Beatrice and Eugenie Join Royal Family at Sandringham Christmas Service
Fine Wine Investors Find Little Cheer in Third Year of Falls
UK Mortgage Rates Edge Lower as Bank of England Base Rate Cut Filters Through Lending Market
U.S. Supermarket Gives Customers Free Groceries for Christmas After Computer Glitch
Air India ‘Finds’ a Plane That Vanished 13 Years Ago
Caviar and Foie Gras? China Is Becoming a Luxury Food Powerhouse
Hong Kong Climbs to Second Globally in 2025 Tourism Rankings Behind Bangkok
From Sunniest Year on Record to Terror Plots and Sports Triumphs: The UK’s Defining Stories of 2025
Greta Thunberg Released on Bail After Arrest at London Pro-Palestinian Demonstration
Banksy Unveils New Winter Mural in London Amid Festive Season Excitement
UK Households Face Rising Financial Strain as Tax Increases Bite and Growth Loses Momentum
UK Government Approves Universal Studios Theme Park in Bedford Poised to Rival Disneyland Paris
UK Gambling Shares Slide as Traders Respond to Steep Tax Rises and Sector Uncertainty
Starmer and Trump Coordinate on Ukraine Peace Efforts in Latest Diplomatic Call
The Pilot Barricaded Himself in the Cockpit and Refused to Take Off: "We Are Not Leaving Until I Receive My Salary"
UK Fashion Label LK Bennett Pursues Accelerated Sale Amid Financial Struggles
U.S. Government Warns UK Over Free Speech in Pro-Life Campaigner Prosecution
Newly Released Files Shed Light on Jeffrey Epstein’s Extensive Links to the United Kingdom
Prince William and Prince George Volunteer Together at UK Homelessness Charity
UK Police Arrest Protesters Chanting ‘Globalise the Intifada’ as Authorities Recalibrate Free Speech Enforcement
Scambodia: The World Owes Thailand’s Military a Profound Debt of Gratitude
Women in Partial Nudity — and Bill Clinton in a Dress and Heels: The Images Revealed in the “Epstein Files”
US Envoy Witkoff to Convene Security Advisers from Ukraine, UK, France and Germany in Miami as Peace Efforts Intensify
UK Retailers Report Sharp Pre-Christmas Sales Decline and Weak Outlook, CBI Survey Shows
UK Government Rejects Use of Frozen Russian Assets to Fund Aid for Ukraine
UK Financial Conduct Authority Opens Formal Investigation into WH Smith After Accounting Errors
UK Issues Final Ultimatum to Roman Abramovich Over £2.5bn Chelsea Sale Funds for Ukraine
Rare Pink Fog Sweeps Across Parts of the UK as Met Office Warns of Poor Visibility
UK Police Pledge ‘More Assertive’ Enforcement to Tackle Antisemitism at Protests
UK Police Warn They Will Arrest Protesters Chanting ‘Globalise the Intifada’
Trump Files $10 Billion Defamation Lawsuit Against BBC as Broadcaster Pledges Legal Defence
UK Says U.S. Tech Deal Talks Still Active Despite Washington’s Suspension of Prosperity Pact
UK Mortgage Rules to Give Greater Flexibility to Borrowers With Irregular Incomes
UK Treasury Moves to Position Britain as Leading Global Hub for Crypto Firms
×