London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Nov 27, 2025

Patel warned of uncertainty over Rwanda plan's deterrent effect

Patel warned of uncertainty over Rwanda plan's deterrent effect

Priti Patel's top civil servant warned her there was not enough evidence of the "deterrent effect" of the plan to send some asylum seekers to Rwanda.

In a letter, Matthew Rycroft said the policy's value for money relied on it reducing illegal Channel crossings.

He said while there was not "sufficient evidence" of the scheme's benefits, that did not mean it would not work.

The home secretary replied it would be "imprudent" to allow a lack of modelling to delay the scheme.

The exchange between Ms Patel and her permanent secretary was published by the Home Office after it emerged she had issued a rare "ministerial direction" to push through the plans, meaning she takes personal responsibility for it.

Under the £120m scheme - which was announced on Thursday - people deemed to have entered the UK unlawfully will be transported to the east African country, where they will be allowed to apply for the right to settle.

'Risking their lives'


It has faced widespread opposition, with criticism from opposition parties and some Conservatives. More than 160 charities and campaign groups wrote an open letter urging the prime minister and Ms Patel to scrap the "shamefully cruel" policy.

In the letter, the group cited Rwanda's "poor" human rights record, and argued the cost of the scheme would be "astronomical" and result in more, not fewer dangerous journeys.

The Archbishop of Canterbury Justin Welby used his Easter Sunday sermon to raise what he said were "serious ethical questions" about the scheme, before adding it was "the opposite of the nature of God".

He added the scheme could not "carry the weight of our national responsibility as a country formed by Christian values" and accused ministers of "sub-contracting out our responsibilities".

But Jacob Rees-Mogg, minister for Brexit opportunities and government efficiency, disagreed with the archbishop.

He told BBC Radio 4's World At Weekend programme: "He misunderstands what the policy is trying to achieve and that it isn't an abandonment of responsibility, it is in fact a taking on of a very difficult responsibility."

Mr Rees-Mogg insisted it was the "encouragement of people traffickers" that needed to be stopped, adding: "90% of the people coming are young men who by coming via people traffickers are jumping the queue for others. They are in doing so not only risking their lives but supporting organised crime."

In his letter to the home secretary dated 13 April last year, Mr Rycroft said she had made it clear the "rationale" for the policy was to "break the business model of people smugglers, while maintaining a fair and robust immigration and borders system".

He said it was also intended to prevent the "tragic loss of life in the Channel", deter "hazardous and illegal journeys to the UK" and to tackle the £1.5bn per year cost of the asylum system to the British taxpayer.

Home Office Permanent Secretary Matthew Rycroft was previously Britain's permanent representative to the United Nations


The permanent secretary said while it was "regular, proper and feasible for this policy to proceed" there was "uncertainty" over whether the plan would be value for money.

He said there were "potentially significant savings to be realised from deterring people entering the UK illegally" but the scheme's value for money depended on how well it deterred people from making those journeys.

"Evidence of a deterrent effect is highly uncertain and cannot be quantified with sufficient certainty to provide me with the necessary level of assurance over value for money," he said.

"I do not believe sufficient evidence can be obtained to demonstrate that the policy will have a deterrent effect significant enough to make the policy value for money."

Mr Rycroft said this did not mean that the scheme could not provide a deterrent - but there was "not sufficient evidence for me to conclude that it will".

Priti Patel and Rwandan minister for foreign affairs and international co-operation, Vincent Biruta signed the deal in the country's capital, Kigali on Thursday


In her response dated the same day, Ms Patel said she understood it was not possible for the government to accurately model the scheme's deterrent effect "from day one" but said she was "confident this policy is our best chance at producing that effect".

She said: "Without action, costs will continue to rise, lives will continue to be lost."

The home secretary added it would be "imprudent" to "allow the absence of quantifiable and dynamic modelling - which is inevitable when developing a response to global crises influenced by so many geopolitical factors such as climate change, war and conflict - to delay delivery of a policy that we believe will reduce illegal migration, save lives, and ultimately break the business model of the smuggling gangs".

Ms Patel formally directed Mr Rycroft to proceed with the scheme with immediate effect.

How will the Rwanda asylum scheme work?


On Thursday, the UK and Rwanda unveiled a new deal that will see some asylum seekers given a one-way ticket to the east African nation.

Here's what we know about the scheme so far:

*  The scheme will focus mainly on single men arriving in the UK illegally in small boats or lorries

*  People who have arrived in the UK by such means since 1 January may be sent to Rwanda, where their asylum claims will be processed

*  While their claims are being considered, they will be given accommodation and support and would be free to come and go from their lodgings at all times

*  Those whose asylum claims are accepted would be helped to build a "new life" in Rwanda, with up to five years' access to education and support there, the UK government says

*  Those whose claims are rejected will be given the chance to apply to remain in Rwanda or be removed to their country of origin or another country where they have the right to reside

*  The UK government has said the first asylum seekers could be flown to Rwanda within weeks

Journalists were given a tour of the typical accommodation for asylum seekers in Rwanda


Justin Welby addresses the "serious ethical questions" of sending asylum seekers to Rwanda


Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK to Slash Key Pension Tax Perk, Targeting High Earners Under New Budget
UK Government Announces £150 Annual Cut to Household Energy Bills Through Levy Reforms
UK Court Hears Challenge to Ban on Palestine Action as Critics Decry Heavy-Handed Measures
Investors Rush Into UK Gilts and Sterling After Budget Eases Fiscal Concerns
UK to Raise Online Betting Taxes by £1.1 Billion Under New Budget — Firms Warn of Fallout
Lamine Yamal? The ‘Heir to Messi’ Lost to Barcelona — and the Kingdom Is in a Frenzy
Warner Music Group Drops Suit Against Suno, Launches Licensed AI-Music Deal
HP to Cut up to 6,000 Jobs Globally as It Ramps Up AI Integration
MediaWorld Sold iPad Air for €15 — Then Asked Customers to Return Them or Pay More
UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer Promises ‘Full-Time’ Education for All Children as School Attendance Slips
UK Extends Sugar Tax to Sweetened Milkshakes and Lattes in 2028 Health Push
UK Government Backs £49 Billion Plan for Heathrow Third Runway and Expansion
UK Gambling Firms Report £1bn Surge in Annual Profits as Pressure Mounts for Higher Betting Taxes
UK Shares Advance Ahead of Budget as Financials and Consumer Staples Lead Gains
Domino’s UK CEO Andrew Rennie Steps Down Amid Strategic Reset
UK Economy Stalls as Reeves Faces First Budget Test
UK Economy’s Weak Start Adds Pressure on Prime Minister Starmer
UK Government Acknowledges Billionaire Exodus Amid Tax Rise Concerns
UK Budget 2025: Markets Brace as Chancellor Faces Fiscal Tightrope
UK Unveils Strategic Plan to Secure Critical Mineral Supply Chains
UK Taskforce Calls for Radical Reset of Nuclear Regulation to Cut Costs and Accelerate Build
UK Government Launches Consultation on Major Overhaul of Settlement Rules
Google Struggles to Meet AI Demand as Infrastructure, Energy and Supply-Chain Gaps Deepen
Car Parts Leader Warns Europe Faces Heavy Job Losses in ‘Darwinian’ Auto Shake-Out
Arsenal Move Six Points Clear After Eze’s Historic Hat-Trick in Derby Rout
Wealthy New Yorkers Weigh Second Homes as the ‘Mamdani Effect’ Ripples Through Luxury Markets
Families Accuse OpenAI of Enabling ‘AI-Driven Delusions’ After Multiple Suicides
UK Unveils Critical-Minerals Strategy to Break China Supply-Chain Grip
Taylor Swift’s “The Fate of Ophelia” Extends U.K. No. 1 Run to Five Weeks
UK VPN Sign-Ups Surge by Over 1,400 % as Age-Verification Law Takes Effect
Former MEP Nathan Gill Jailed for Over Ten Years After Taking Pro-Russia Bribes
Majority of UK Entrepreneurs Regard Government as ‘Anti-Business’, Survey Shows
UK’s Starmer and US President Trump Align as Geneva Talks Probe Ukraine Peace Plan
UK Prime Minister Signals Former Prince Andrew Should Testify to US Epstein Inquiry
Royal Navy Deploys HMS Severn to Shadow Russian Corvette and Tanker Off UK Coast
China’s Wedding Boom: Nightclubs, Mountains and a Demographic Reset
Fugees Founding Member Pras Michel Sentenced to 14 Years in High-Profile US Foreign Influence Case
WhatsApp’s Unexpected Rise Reshapes American Messaging Habits
United States: Judge Dressed Up as Elvis During Hearings – and Was Forced to Resign
Johnson Blasts ‘Incoherent’ Covid Inquiry Findings Amid Report’s Harsh Critique of His Government
Lord Rothermere Secures £500 Million Deal to Acquire Telegraph Titles
Maduro Tightens Security Measures as U.S. Strike Threat Intensifies
U.S. Envoys Deliver Ultimatum to Ukraine: Sign Peace Deal by Thursday or Risk Losing American Support
Zelenskyy Signals Progress Toward Ending the War: ‘One of the Hardest Moments in History’ (end of his business model?)
U.S. Issues Alert Declaring Venezuelan Airspace a Hazard Due to Escalating Security Conditions
The U.S. State Department Announces That Mass Migration Constitutes an Existential Threat to Western Civilization and Undermines the Stability of Key American Allies
Students Challenge AI-Driven Teaching at University of Staffordshire
Pikeville Medical Center Partners with UK’s Golisano Children’s Network to Expand Pediatric Care
Germany, France and UK Confirm Full Support for Ukraine in US-Backed Security Plan
UK Low-Traffic Neighbourhoods Face Rising Backlash as Pandemic Schemes Unravel
×