London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Tuesday, Sep 16, 2025

Patel warned of uncertainty over Rwanda plan's deterrent effect

Patel warned of uncertainty over Rwanda plan's deterrent effect

Priti Patel's top civil servant warned her there was not enough evidence of the "deterrent effect" of the plan to send some asylum seekers to Rwanda.

In a letter, Matthew Rycroft said the policy's value for money relied on it reducing illegal Channel crossings.

He said while there was not "sufficient evidence" of the scheme's benefits, that did not mean it would not work.

The home secretary replied it would be "imprudent" to allow a lack of modelling to delay the scheme.

The exchange between Ms Patel and her permanent secretary was published by the Home Office after it emerged she had issued a rare "ministerial direction" to push through the plans, meaning she takes personal responsibility for it.

Under the £120m scheme - which was announced on Thursday - people deemed to have entered the UK unlawfully will be transported to the east African country, where they will be allowed to apply for the right to settle.

'Risking their lives'


It has faced widespread opposition, with criticism from opposition parties and some Conservatives. More than 160 charities and campaign groups wrote an open letter urging the prime minister and Ms Patel to scrap the "shamefully cruel" policy.

In the letter, the group cited Rwanda's "poor" human rights record, and argued the cost of the scheme would be "astronomical" and result in more, not fewer dangerous journeys.

The Archbishop of Canterbury Justin Welby used his Easter Sunday sermon to raise what he said were "serious ethical questions" about the scheme, before adding it was "the opposite of the nature of God".

He added the scheme could not "carry the weight of our national responsibility as a country formed by Christian values" and accused ministers of "sub-contracting out our responsibilities".

But Jacob Rees-Mogg, minister for Brexit opportunities and government efficiency, disagreed with the archbishop.

He told BBC Radio 4's World At Weekend programme: "He misunderstands what the policy is trying to achieve and that it isn't an abandonment of responsibility, it is in fact a taking on of a very difficult responsibility."

Mr Rees-Mogg insisted it was the "encouragement of people traffickers" that needed to be stopped, adding: "90% of the people coming are young men who by coming via people traffickers are jumping the queue for others. They are in doing so not only risking their lives but supporting organised crime."

In his letter to the home secretary dated 13 April last year, Mr Rycroft said she had made it clear the "rationale" for the policy was to "break the business model of people smugglers, while maintaining a fair and robust immigration and borders system".

He said it was also intended to prevent the "tragic loss of life in the Channel", deter "hazardous and illegal journeys to the UK" and to tackle the £1.5bn per year cost of the asylum system to the British taxpayer.

Home Office Permanent Secretary Matthew Rycroft was previously Britain's permanent representative to the United Nations


The permanent secretary said while it was "regular, proper and feasible for this policy to proceed" there was "uncertainty" over whether the plan would be value for money.

He said there were "potentially significant savings to be realised from deterring people entering the UK illegally" but the scheme's value for money depended on how well it deterred people from making those journeys.

"Evidence of a deterrent effect is highly uncertain and cannot be quantified with sufficient certainty to provide me with the necessary level of assurance over value for money," he said.

"I do not believe sufficient evidence can be obtained to demonstrate that the policy will have a deterrent effect significant enough to make the policy value for money."

Mr Rycroft said this did not mean that the scheme could not provide a deterrent - but there was "not sufficient evidence for me to conclude that it will".

Priti Patel and Rwandan minister for foreign affairs and international co-operation, Vincent Biruta signed the deal in the country's capital, Kigali on Thursday


In her response dated the same day, Ms Patel said she understood it was not possible for the government to accurately model the scheme's deterrent effect "from day one" but said she was "confident this policy is our best chance at producing that effect".

She said: "Without action, costs will continue to rise, lives will continue to be lost."

The home secretary added it would be "imprudent" to "allow the absence of quantifiable and dynamic modelling - which is inevitable when developing a response to global crises influenced by so many geopolitical factors such as climate change, war and conflict - to delay delivery of a policy that we believe will reduce illegal migration, save lives, and ultimately break the business model of the smuggling gangs".

Ms Patel formally directed Mr Rycroft to proceed with the scheme with immediate effect.

How will the Rwanda asylum scheme work?


On Thursday, the UK and Rwanda unveiled a new deal that will see some asylum seekers given a one-way ticket to the east African nation.

Here's what we know about the scheme so far:

*  The scheme will focus mainly on single men arriving in the UK illegally in small boats or lorries

*  People who have arrived in the UK by such means since 1 January may be sent to Rwanda, where their asylum claims will be processed

*  While their claims are being considered, they will be given accommodation and support and would be free to come and go from their lodgings at all times

*  Those whose asylum claims are accepted would be helped to build a "new life" in Rwanda, with up to five years' access to education and support there, the UK government says

*  Those whose claims are rejected will be given the chance to apply to remain in Rwanda or be removed to their country of origin or another country where they have the right to reside

*  The UK government has said the first asylum seekers could be flown to Rwanda within weeks

Journalists were given a tour of the typical accommodation for asylum seekers in Rwanda


Justin Welby addresses the "serious ethical questions" of sending asylum seekers to Rwanda


Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
U.S. and Britain Poised to Finalize Over $10 Billion in High-Tech, Nuclear and Defense Deals During Trump State Visit
China Finds Nvidia Violated Antitrust Laws in Mellanox Deal, Deepens Trade Tensions with US
US Air Force Begins Modifications on Qatar-Donated Jet Amid Plans to Use It as Air Force One
Pope Leo Warns of Societal Crisis Over Mega-CEO Pay, Citing Tesla’s Proposed Trillion-Dollar Package
Poland Green-Lights NATO Deployment in Response to Major Russian Drone Incursion
Elon Musk Retakes Lead as World’s Richest After Brief Ellison Surge
U.S. and China Agree on Framework to Shift TikTok to American Ownership
London Daily Podcast: London Massive Pro Democracy Rally, Musk Support, UK Economic Data and Premier League Results Mark Eventful Weekend
This Week in AI: Meta’s Superintelligence Push, xAI’s Ten Billion-Dollar Raise, Genesis AI’s Robotics Ambitions, Microsoft Restructuring, Amazon’s Million-Robot Milestone, and Google’s AlphaGenome Update
Le Pen Tightens the Pressure on Macron as France Edges Toward Political Breakdown
Musk calls for new UK government at huge pro-democracy rally in London, but Britons have been brainwashed to obey instead of fighting for their human rights
Elon Musk responds to post calling for the murder of Erika Kirk, widow of Charlie Kirk: 'Either we fight back or they will kill us'
Czech Republic signs €1.34 billion contract for Leopard 2A8 main battle tanks with delivery from 2028
USA: Office Depot Employees Refused to Print Poster in Memory of Charlie Kirk – and Were Fired
Proposed U.S. Bill Would Allow Civil Suits Against Judges Who Release Repeat Violent Offenders
Penske Media Sues Google Over “AI Overviews,” Claiming It Uses Journalism Without Consent and Destroys Traffic
Indian Student Engineers Propose “Project REBIRTH” to Protect Aircraft from Crashes Using AI, Airbags and Smart Materials
French Debt Downgrade Piles Pressure on Macron’s New Prime Minister
US and UK Near Tech, Nuclear and Whisky Deals Ahead of Trump Trip
One in Three Europeans Now Uses TikTok, According to the Chinese Tech Giant
Could AI Nursing Robots Help Healthcare Staffing Shortages?
NATO Deploys ‘Eastern Sentry’ After Russian Drones Violate Polish Airspace
Anesthesiologist Left Operation Mid-Surgery to Have Sex with Nurse
Tens of Thousands of Young Chinese Get Up Every Morning and Go to Work Where They Do Nothing
The New Life of Novak Djokovic
The German Owner of Politico Mathias Döpfner Eyes Further U.S. Media Expansion After Axel Springer Restructuring
Suspect Arrested: Utah Man in Custody for Charlie Kirk’s Fatal Shooting
In a politically motivated trial: Bolsonaro Sentenced to 27 Years for Plotting Coup After 2022 Defeat
German police raid AfD lawmaker’s offices in inquiry over Chinese payments
Turkish authorities seize leading broadcaster amid fraud and tax investigation
Volkswagen launches aggressive strategy to fend off Chinese challenge in Europe’s EV market
ChatGPT CEO signals policy to alert authorities over suicidal youth after teen’s death
The British legal mafia hit back: Banksy mural of judge beating protester is scrubbed from London court
Surpassing Musk: Larry Ellison becomes the richest man in the world
Embarrassment for Starmer: He fired the ambassador photographed on Epstein’s 'pedophile island'
Manhunt after 'skilled sniper' shot Charlie Kirk. Footage: Suspect running on rooftop during panic
Effective Protest Results: Nepal’s Prime Minister Resigns as Youth-Led Unrest Shakes the Nation
Qatari prime minister says Netanyahu ‘killed any hope’ for Israeli hostages
King Charles and Prince Harry Share First In-Person Moment in 19 Months
Starmer Establishes Economic ‘Budget Board’ to Centralise Policy and Rebuild Business Trust
France Erupts in Mass ‘Block Everything’ Protests on New PM’s First Day
Poland Shoots Down Russian Drones in Airspace Violation During Ukraine Attack
Brazilian police say ex-President Bolsonaro had planned to flee to Argentina seeking asylum
Trinidad Leader Applauds U.S. Naval Strike and Advocates Forceful Action Against Traffickers
Kim Jong Un Oversees Final Test of New High-Thrust Solid-Fuel Rocket Engine
Apple Introduces Ultra-Thin iPhone Air, Enhanced 17 Series and New Health-Focused Wearables
Macron Appoints Sébastien Lecornu as Prime Minister Amid Budget Crisis and Political Turmoil
Supreme Court temporarily allows Trump to pause billions in foreign aid
Charlie Sheen says his father, Martin Sheen, turned him in to the police: 'The greatest betrayal possible'
Vatican hosts first Catholic LGBTQ pilgrimage
×