London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Apr 01, 2026

Partygate: Will Boris Johnson survive June?

Partygate: Will Boris Johnson survive June?

Boris Johnson's bank holiday weekend hasn't involved much downtime. The prime minister attended a number of events to mark the Queen's Platinum Jubilee - including the service at St Paul's, where he was booed by part of the crowd.

He's also been putting the finishing touches to a major housing policy speech, pencilled in for Thursday, which will see his own answer to help-to-buy as its centrepiece.

Mr Johnson wants us all to know he wants to get on with the job. But in between attending jubilee parties, many Tory MPs have been plotting.

And within days, some believe the PM will be engaged in a fight to stay in office.

All eyes will be on Sir Graham Brady when Parliament returns on Monday. He is the chairman of the 1922 committee - the shop steward for Conservative MPs.

If 15% of the party's MPs - 54 of them - write letters or emails to him calling for a confidence vote in the prime minister, it happens.

Only Sir Graham knows how many have been sent in so far. That caveat cannot be overstated; nobody knows for sure what will happen over the next few days.

But, speaking to Conservative MPs this weekend, many rebels think the threshold will be reached within days.

"The expectation is that it will likely be next week," one critic of the prime minister told the BBC. "Colleagues have to make a decision - finally they will have to make their minds up."

A number of others echoed those sentiments. Within government, some concede a vote could be triggered in the coming days "by accident" - not because of well organised rebellion from a section of the party, but because enough disparate groups of MPs are fed up enough to submit a no confidence letter.

Since Parliament broke up for recess on the same day the full Sue Gray report was published, there has a been a growing number of MPs who have spoken out to say they think the prime minister should go. The BBC has 28 on the record saying so.

Privately there are others who are angry.

One MP said: "I know there are people who have put letters in who haven't said so publicly." Enough to definitely force a vote this week? "I don't know," they replied.

The BBC has spoken to a minister who is among those furious at the situation.

Boris Johnson is said to be "sanguine" about the prospect of a confidence vote in the near term.

And that is because if a vote happens, the bar to remove the prime minister from office is high. It would take a majority of Tory MPs - 180.

One of the rebels admitted to the BBC the most likely outcome of a confidence vote this week was a victory for the prime minister - but that Tory MPs couldn't sit on their hands any longer and wait for the next crisis before making a move.

Others think if a tipping point isn't reached this week, the best opportunity for rebels could come later this month, after the result of two by-elections triggered by Tory MPs standing down from Parliament.

There is a realistic chance the Conservatives will lose both Wakefield (a previous red wall seat that Labour will want to win back) and Tiverton and Honiton (a previous Tory safe seat in Devon, where many believe the Liberal Democrats are on course for another coup).

If the prime minister was seen to be losing in both the north and the south of England, it would likely lead to more of his MPs concluding he is no longer an election winner who can keep them in power.

One senior MP told the BBC: "If I was them, I would wait until the by-elections… I'd be surprised if it's this week."

There are other reasons why some Tory MPs may hold back this week. Firstly, the prime minister is protected from another confidence vote for a year after winning one.

That means Tory MPs wouldn't have another opportunity after the by-elections unless they change the rules.

Secondly, the expectation is that the prime minister would stay on even if he won the vote narrowly.

As one source close to the PM said this weekend: "His opponents should not underestimate this man's determination to do what he promised to do". He is not, they said, going to give up the keys to Downing Street easily.

The PM's allies are scathing of those plotting to bring him down. They argue his critics have no alternative plan, no obvious leader and no discernible strategy.

"It's a random bunch of discontented people who don't have a plan but want to blow up the joint".

The government should be focussing, the source argued, on the cost of living crisis, energy policy and the war in Ukraine. "I can't imagine anything more insane and self-indulgent than deciding a Conservative beauty parade trumps all of that."

But if it happens, we already have a sense of how the prime minister will try to win a confidence vote. Mr Johnson's allies argue he is the only one who can keep together the diverse coalition of voters that won the party a stonking majority at the last election.

"The north of England was voting for Boris… he is conscious of the support he still has and the massive mandate he won."

Another source added: "There is no alternative that doesn't blow apart the red wall. It's a huge decision for the party - if you get rid of him, you chuck the progress of the last few years in the bin".

The Lib Dems are hopeful of success in Tiverton and Honiton


That is clearly not a view shared by many of his MPs. The prime minister's critics have spent the past week looking at polls - and concluding a change is needed.

Among the most despairing are those who have spent time on the doorsteps ahead of the by-election in Tiverton and Honiton.

One told the BBC the picture in the constituency was "appalling" with some voters saying they wouldn't back the Conservatives again without a change of leader.

There is no shortage of nerves among Tory MPs who could face a similar challenge at the next election - there are even some who have concluded they have no chance of winning their seat next time.

In the coming days or weeks, they will have a decision to make. Whether to act - or to keep the prime minister in office.

Will June be a moment of truth for the Conservative Party - or another damp squib in the long running leadership psychodrama? Many Tory MPs are weighing that up as the bank holiday draws to a close.


Watch: Boos and cheers for the PM as he arrives with wife Carrie


Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
King Charles Plans US State Visit as UK Strengthens Ties with Trump Leadership
UK Regulator Launches Investigation Into Microsoft’s Business Software Practices
Kanye West Set for High-Profile Return to UK Stage at Wireless Festival
Trump Presses Europe to Strengthen Commitment as Iran Conflict Escalates
UK to Deploy Additional Troops to Middle East Amid Rising Regional Tensions
UK Authorities Face Claims of Heavy-Handed Measures in Monitoring Released Pro-Palestine Activists
Trump Calls on UK to Secure Its Own Energy as Iran Conflict Intensifies
Nigel Farage Declines Invitation to UK Conservative Conference Led by Liz Truss
Trump Warns Allies to Take Responsibility as Rift Deepens with UK and France Over Iran Conflict
How Britain’s Prime Minister Controls U.S. Bomber Access in Escalating Iran Conflict
Trump Urges Allies to Secure Their Own Oil Supplies as Hormuz Crisis Disrupts Global Energy
Russia Expels British Diplomat as UK Pushes Back Against Pressure
White House App Faces Scrutiny After Claims of Continuous User Location Tracking
BBC Faces Scrutiny Over Allegations of Paid Content Linked to Saudi Arabia
UK-France Coastal Patrol Agreement Nears Breakdown Amid Migration Pressures
UK Police Detain Pro-Palestine Activist Again Weeks After Bail Release
FTSE 100 Advances as Energy and Mining Shares Gain Amid Middle East Tensions
Eli Lilly Seeks UK Pricing Deal to Unlock Renewed Pharmaceutical Investment
Three Arrested in UK After Massive Cocaine Haul Discovered Hidden in Banana Shipment
UK Fuel Prices Poised for Further Surge Amid Global Energy Pressures
Apple Subsidiary Penalized by UK Authorities for Breach of Moscow Sanctions
Western Allies Intensify Coordinated Sanctions Strategy Against Russia
UK Lawmakers Face Criticism Over Renewed Push for Social Media Restrictions
Starmer Signals UK Crackdown on Addictive Social Media Features
Rising Costs Push One in Five UK Hospitality Businesses to the Brink of Closure
Man Arrested on Suspicion of Attempted Murder After Car Strikes Pedestrians in UK, Injuring Seven
Escalating Conflict Involving Iran Tightens Fiscal Pressures and Highlights UK Economic Vulnerabilities
UK Moves to Confront Russian ‘Shadow Fleet’ Operating in Its Waters
UK Housing Divide Deepens as Older Owners Hold Wealth While Under-30s Face Mounting Barriers
London Demonstration Calls on UK to Recognize Iranian Opposition’s Provisional Government
UK Green Party Vote on ‘Zionism is Racism’ Motion Collapses Amid Internal Disputes and Technical Failures
SNL UK Ignites Debate with Sharp Royal Satire Targeting Prince Andrew and Prince William
EU Proposes ‘Emergency Brake’ to Resolve Deadlock in UK Youth Mobility Talks
Thousands Rally in London to Oppose Rise of Far-Right Movements
Hong Kong Official Rejects Allegations of Surveillance Orders Targeting UK-Based Dissidents
PayPal Expands Cryptocurrency Services to Allow UK Users to Buy and Sell Bitcoin
UK Minister Challenges Reform Party’s ‘Pro-Family’ Agenda as Debate Intensifies
Concerns Grow Over Meningitis Risk Among UK Students Amid Warning Signs of New Outbreaks
Japanese Grand Prix 2026: Schedule, UK Start Times and Full Broadcast Details
Electric Vehicles Seen as Strategic Solution to UK Fuel Reserve Concerns
Rise of Lone-Actor Threats and Online Radicalisation Drives New Wave of Antisemitic Attacks in the UK
Canada Advances Plan to Ban Cryptocurrency Donations in Election Campaigns
UK Faces Looming Medicine Shortages as Iran Conflict Threatens Supply Chains
Deadly Meningitis Outbreak in the U.K. Highlights Urgent Need for Vaccination
Fresh Claims Emerge Over Harry and Meghan’s Australia Visit as Insider Speaks Out
NATO Assessment Indicates UK Defence Spending Has Fallen Below Alliance Average
FTSE 100 Slips as Middle East Tensions Weigh on Investor Sentiment
UK Economy Begins to Feel Early Impact of Iran Conflict as Policy Challenges Intensify
Russian National Jailed in UK After Assault Case Linked to Barron Trump’s Alert
Energy Price Surge Accelerates Shift Away from Fossil Fuels in UK Homes
×