London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Saturday, Feb 22, 2025

Partygate: Will Boris Johnson survive June?

Partygate: Will Boris Johnson survive June?

Boris Johnson's bank holiday weekend hasn't involved much downtime. The prime minister attended a number of events to mark the Queen's Platinum Jubilee - including the service at St Paul's, where he was booed by part of the crowd.

He's also been putting the finishing touches to a major housing policy speech, pencilled in for Thursday, which will see his own answer to help-to-buy as its centrepiece.

Mr Johnson wants us all to know he wants to get on with the job. But in between attending jubilee parties, many Tory MPs have been plotting.

And within days, some believe the PM will be engaged in a fight to stay in office.

All eyes will be on Sir Graham Brady when Parliament returns on Monday. He is the chairman of the 1922 committee - the shop steward for Conservative MPs.

If 15% of the party's MPs - 54 of them - write letters or emails to him calling for a confidence vote in the prime minister, it happens.

Only Sir Graham knows how many have been sent in so far. That caveat cannot be overstated; nobody knows for sure what will happen over the next few days.

But, speaking to Conservative MPs this weekend, many rebels think the threshold will be reached within days.

"The expectation is that it will likely be next week," one critic of the prime minister told the BBC. "Colleagues have to make a decision - finally they will have to make their minds up."

A number of others echoed those sentiments. Within government, some concede a vote could be triggered in the coming days "by accident" - not because of well organised rebellion from a section of the party, but because enough disparate groups of MPs are fed up enough to submit a no confidence letter.

Since Parliament broke up for recess on the same day the full Sue Gray report was published, there has a been a growing number of MPs who have spoken out to say they think the prime minister should go. The BBC has 28 on the record saying so.

Privately there are others who are angry.

One MP said: "I know there are people who have put letters in who haven't said so publicly." Enough to definitely force a vote this week? "I don't know," they replied.

The BBC has spoken to a minister who is among those furious at the situation.

Boris Johnson is said to be "sanguine" about the prospect of a confidence vote in the near term.

And that is because if a vote happens, the bar to remove the prime minister from office is high. It would take a majority of Tory MPs - 180.

One of the rebels admitted to the BBC the most likely outcome of a confidence vote this week was a victory for the prime minister - but that Tory MPs couldn't sit on their hands any longer and wait for the next crisis before making a move.

Others think if a tipping point isn't reached this week, the best opportunity for rebels could come later this month, after the result of two by-elections triggered by Tory MPs standing down from Parliament.

There is a realistic chance the Conservatives will lose both Wakefield (a previous red wall seat that Labour will want to win back) and Tiverton and Honiton (a previous Tory safe seat in Devon, where many believe the Liberal Democrats are on course for another coup).

If the prime minister was seen to be losing in both the north and the south of England, it would likely lead to more of his MPs concluding he is no longer an election winner who can keep them in power.

One senior MP told the BBC: "If I was them, I would wait until the by-elections… I'd be surprised if it's this week."

There are other reasons why some Tory MPs may hold back this week. Firstly, the prime minister is protected from another confidence vote for a year after winning one.

That means Tory MPs wouldn't have another opportunity after the by-elections unless they change the rules.

Secondly, the expectation is that the prime minister would stay on even if he won the vote narrowly.

As one source close to the PM said this weekend: "His opponents should not underestimate this man's determination to do what he promised to do". He is not, they said, going to give up the keys to Downing Street easily.

The PM's allies are scathing of those plotting to bring him down. They argue his critics have no alternative plan, no obvious leader and no discernible strategy.

"It's a random bunch of discontented people who don't have a plan but want to blow up the joint".

The government should be focussing, the source argued, on the cost of living crisis, energy policy and the war in Ukraine. "I can't imagine anything more insane and self-indulgent than deciding a Conservative beauty parade trumps all of that."

But if it happens, we already have a sense of how the prime minister will try to win a confidence vote. Mr Johnson's allies argue he is the only one who can keep together the diverse coalition of voters that won the party a stonking majority at the last election.

"The north of England was voting for Boris… he is conscious of the support he still has and the massive mandate he won."

Another source added: "There is no alternative that doesn't blow apart the red wall. It's a huge decision for the party - if you get rid of him, you chuck the progress of the last few years in the bin".

The Lib Dems are hopeful of success in Tiverton and Honiton


That is clearly not a view shared by many of his MPs. The prime minister's critics have spent the past week looking at polls - and concluding a change is needed.

Among the most despairing are those who have spent time on the doorsteps ahead of the by-election in Tiverton and Honiton.

One told the BBC the picture in the constituency was "appalling" with some voters saying they wouldn't back the Conservatives again without a change of leader.

There is no shortage of nerves among Tory MPs who could face a similar challenge at the next election - there are even some who have concluded they have no chance of winning their seat next time.

In the coming days or weeks, they will have a decision to make. Whether to act - or to keep the prime minister in office.

Will June be a moment of truth for the Conservative Party - or another damp squib in the long running leadership psychodrama? Many Tory MPs are weighing that up as the bank holiday draws to a close.


Watch: Boos and cheers for the PM as he arrives with wife Carrie


Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Prison Officer Sentenced for Inappropriate Conduct with Inmate
Good News: Senate Confirms Kash Patel as FBI Director
Officials from the U.S. and Hungary Engage in Talks on Economic Collaboration and Sanctions Strategy
James Bond Franchise Transitions to Amazon MGM Studios
Technology Giants Ramp Up Lobbying Initiatives Against Strict EU Regulations
Alibaba Exceeds Quarterly Projections Fueled by Growth in Cloud and AI
Tequila Sector Faces Surplus Crisis as Agave Prices Dive Sharply
Residents of Flintshire Mobile Home Park Grapple with Maintenance Issues and Uncertain Future
Ronan Keating Criticizes Irish Justice System Following Fatal Crash Involving His Brother
Gordon Ramsay's Lucky Cat Restaurant Faces Unprecedented Theft
Israeli Family Mourns Loss of Peace Advocate Oded Lifschitz as Body Returned from Gaza
Former UK Defense Chief Calls for Enhanced European Support for Ukraine
Pope Francis Admitted to Hospital in Rome Amid Rising Succession Speculation
Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, at the age of 83, Declares His Retirement.
Whistleblower Reveals Whitehall’s Focus on Kabul Animal Airlift Amid Crisis
Politicians Who Deliberately Lie Could Face Removal from Office in Wales
Scottish Labour Faces Challenges Ahead of 2026 Holyrood Elections
Leftwing Activists Less Likely to Work with Political Rivals, Study Finds
Boris Johnson to Host 'An Evening with Boris Johnson' at Edinburgh's Usher Hall
Planned Change in British Citizenship Rules Faces First Legal Challenge
Northumberland Postal Worker Sentenced for Sexual Assaults During Deliveries
British Journalist Missing in Brazil for 11 Days
Tesco Fixes Website Glitch That Disrupted Online Grocery Orders
Amnesty International Critiques UK's Predictive Policing Practices
Burglar Jailed After Falling into Home-Made Trap in Blyth
Sellafield Nuclear Site Exits Special Measures for Physical Security Amid Ongoing Cybersecurity Concerns
Avian Influenza Impact on Seals in Norfolk: Four Deaths Confirmed
First Arrest Under Scotland's Abortion Clinic Buffer Zone Law Amidst International Controversy
Meghan Markle Rebrands Lifestyle Venture as 'As Ever' Ahead of Netflix Series Launch
Inter-Island Ferry Services Between Guernsey and Jersey Set to Expand
Significant Proportion of Cancer Patients in England and Wales Not Receiving Recommended Treatments
Final Consultation Launched for Vyrnwy Frankton Power Line Project
Drug Misuse Deaths in Scotland Rise by 12% in 2023
Failed £100 Million Cocaine Smuggling Operation in the Scottish Highlands
Central Cee Equals MOBO Awards Record; Bashy and Ayra Starr Among Top Honorees
EastEnders: Four Decades of Challenging Social Norms
Jonathan Bailey Channels 'Succession' in Bold Richard II Performance
Northern Ireland's First Astronaut Engages in Rigorous Spacewalk Training
Former Postman Sentenced for Series of Sexual Offences in Northumberland
Record Surge in Anti-Muslim Hate Crimes Across the UK in 2024
Omagh Bombing Inquiry Concludes Commemorative Hearings with Survivor Testimonies
UK Government Introduces 'Ronan's Law' to Combat Online Knife Sales to Minors
Metal Detectorists Unearth 15th-Century Coin Hoard in Scottish Borders
Woman Charged in 1978 Death of Five-Year-Old Girl in South London
Expanding Sinkhole in Godstone, Surrey, Forces Evacuations and Road Closures
Bangor University Announces Plans to Cut 200 Jobs Amid £15 Million Savings Target
British Journalist Charlotte Peet Reported Missing in Brazil
UK Inflation Rises to 3% in January Amid Higher Food Prices and School Fees
Starmer Defends Zelensky Amidst Trump's 'Dictator' Allegation
Zelensky Calls on World Leaders to Back Peace Efforts in Light of Strains with Trump
×