London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Saturday, Feb 22, 2025

Northern Ireland Protocol: Can PM sell a revised deal back home?

Northern Ireland Protocol: Can PM sell a revised deal back home?

"The jigsaw pieces are well known. They've been on the table for a while," a key EU figure recently told me. "It's a case now of both of us being brave enough to hold hands and jump."

Rishi Sunak and the European Commission President are both described by their teams as preferring not to sign a deal, rather than go for (another) one they believe is doomed to fail.

So will this work?

Brussels describes Rishi Sunak as a pragmatist. Yes, a Brexiteer but also a practical politician, solutions-focussed, rather than an ideologue.

EU diplomats compare him favourably to his predecessors Liz Truss, who they say "didn't dare touch the post-Brexit agreement on Northern Ireland" (you might question if she had the time in her short premiership?), and Boris Johnson, who EU leaders widely believe signed the agreement "in bad faith".

They insist he knew the protocol deal involved checks on goods travelling between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, although he denied that fact in public.

But why would Mr Sunak attempt to solve this thorny and contentious post-Brexit issue with so much at stake - not least the politics and stability of Northern Ireland as well as of his own Conservative Party.

He already has plenty of other problems on his plate: strikes, a difficult upcoming budget, local elections in May with the Conservatives trailing in national polls.

But the EU understood the prime minister had a number of clear reasons to go for a revised Northern Ireland deal: both economic and political.

First and foremost, Mr Sunak hopes for improved relations with the US and the EU.

The Biden administration made it clear that previous UK government talk of unilaterally overriding the current Northern Ireland Agreement would not be "conducive" to a trade deal between the UK and US.

Additionally, this April sees the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday/Belfast Peace Agreement.

The prime minister is keen for President Biden to come. But first he needs to revise the protocol sufficiently to persuade the Democratic Unionist Party to join and therefore restore the power-sharing government in Northern Ireland.

Sunnier relations with the UK's biggest trade partner, the EU, is also advantageous for Mr Sunak.

Importantly, if this revised deal falls through, he would be forced to continue with a Bill to unilaterally override key parts of the protocol which could lead to a costly trade war with Brussels - something the prime minister very much hopes to avoid.

A revised agreement and improved bilateral trust could ease future deals with the EU - on the UK joining the attractive Horizon research programme for example, as well as on forging a post-Brexit deal on financial services and making it easier for UK musicians to travel throughout the EU.

It would also improve relations with France, just ahead of a big Franco-UK summit where combatting people-smuggler boats across the Channel will be a big topic of conversation.


EU-UK relations are already much improved since the fractious days of initial Brexit negotiations.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine reminded both sides of the values and priorities they share. They've worked closely on sanctions against Russia as well as on a country-by-country basis inside Nato.

There's much hope in the EU that rows over the Northern Ireland Protocol can now become a thing of the past.

The EU says it accepts the risk to its single market of reduced customs checks as a price worth paying.

So the ball has been in the UK's court for a while.

The challenge: how to package and present a deal in order to make it workable and acceptable to the key "stakeholders" - public and political in the UK.

Ursula von der Leyen travelling to the UK on Monday is seen as the last piece in the presentation puzzle, but back in Brussels EU diplomats mutter that they're not counting their chickens.

As one EU figure put it to me: "We know negotiations with us [the EU] are only part of a UK prime minister's journey. Brexit caused deep internal divisions in the UK. We have tried to negotiate a revised Northern Ireland deal. Now we watch and wait."

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Prison Officer Sentenced for Inappropriate Conduct with Inmate
Good News: Senate Confirms Kash Patel as FBI Director
Officials from the U.S. and Hungary Engage in Talks on Economic Collaboration and Sanctions Strategy
James Bond Franchise Transitions to Amazon MGM Studios
Technology Giants Ramp Up Lobbying Initiatives Against Strict EU Regulations
Alibaba Exceeds Quarterly Projections Fueled by Growth in Cloud and AI
Tequila Sector Faces Surplus Crisis as Agave Prices Dive Sharply
Residents of Flintshire Mobile Home Park Grapple with Maintenance Issues and Uncertain Future
Ronan Keating Criticizes Irish Justice System Following Fatal Crash Involving His Brother
Gordon Ramsay's Lucky Cat Restaurant Faces Unprecedented Theft
Israeli Family Mourns Loss of Peace Advocate Oded Lifschitz as Body Returned from Gaza
Former UK Defense Chief Calls for Enhanced European Support for Ukraine
Pope Francis Admitted to Hospital in Rome Amid Rising Succession Speculation
Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, at the age of 83, Declares His Retirement.
Whistleblower Reveals Whitehall’s Focus on Kabul Animal Airlift Amid Crisis
Politicians Who Deliberately Lie Could Face Removal from Office in Wales
Scottish Labour Faces Challenges Ahead of 2026 Holyrood Elections
Leftwing Activists Less Likely to Work with Political Rivals, Study Finds
Boris Johnson to Host 'An Evening with Boris Johnson' at Edinburgh's Usher Hall
Planned Change in British Citizenship Rules Faces First Legal Challenge
Northumberland Postal Worker Sentenced for Sexual Assaults During Deliveries
British Journalist Missing in Brazil for 11 Days
Tesco Fixes Website Glitch That Disrupted Online Grocery Orders
Amnesty International Critiques UK's Predictive Policing Practices
Burglar Jailed After Falling into Home-Made Trap in Blyth
Sellafield Nuclear Site Exits Special Measures for Physical Security Amid Ongoing Cybersecurity Concerns
Avian Influenza Impact on Seals in Norfolk: Four Deaths Confirmed
First Arrest Under Scotland's Abortion Clinic Buffer Zone Law Amidst International Controversy
Meghan Markle Rebrands Lifestyle Venture as 'As Ever' Ahead of Netflix Series Launch
Inter-Island Ferry Services Between Guernsey and Jersey Set to Expand
Significant Proportion of Cancer Patients in England and Wales Not Receiving Recommended Treatments
Final Consultation Launched for Vyrnwy Frankton Power Line Project
Drug Misuse Deaths in Scotland Rise by 12% in 2023
Failed £100 Million Cocaine Smuggling Operation in the Scottish Highlands
Central Cee Equals MOBO Awards Record; Bashy and Ayra Starr Among Top Honorees
EastEnders: Four Decades of Challenging Social Norms
Jonathan Bailey Channels 'Succession' in Bold Richard II Performance
Northern Ireland's First Astronaut Engages in Rigorous Spacewalk Training
Former Postman Sentenced for Series of Sexual Offences in Northumberland
Record Surge in Anti-Muslim Hate Crimes Across the UK in 2024
Omagh Bombing Inquiry Concludes Commemorative Hearings with Survivor Testimonies
UK Government Introduces 'Ronan's Law' to Combat Online Knife Sales to Minors
Metal Detectorists Unearth 15th-Century Coin Hoard in Scottish Borders
Woman Charged in 1978 Death of Five-Year-Old Girl in South London
Expanding Sinkhole in Godstone, Surrey, Forces Evacuations and Road Closures
Bangor University Announces Plans to Cut 200 Jobs Amid £15 Million Savings Target
British Journalist Charlotte Peet Reported Missing in Brazil
UK Inflation Rises to 3% in January Amid Higher Food Prices and School Fees
Starmer Defends Zelensky Amidst Trump's 'Dictator' Allegation
Zelensky Calls on World Leaders to Back Peace Efforts in Light of Strains with Trump
×