London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Sunday, Nov 01, 2026

Northern Ireland Protocol: Can PM sell a revised deal back home?

Northern Ireland Protocol: Can PM sell a revised deal back home?

"The jigsaw pieces are well known. They've been on the table for a while," a key EU figure recently told me. "It's a case now of both of us being brave enough to hold hands and jump."

Rishi Sunak and the European Commission President are both described by their teams as preferring not to sign a deal, rather than go for (another) one they believe is doomed to fail.

So will this work?

Brussels describes Rishi Sunak as a pragmatist. Yes, a Brexiteer but also a practical politician, solutions-focussed, rather than an ideologue.

EU diplomats compare him favourably to his predecessors Liz Truss, who they say "didn't dare touch the post-Brexit agreement on Northern Ireland" (you might question if she had the time in her short premiership?), and Boris Johnson, who EU leaders widely believe signed the agreement "in bad faith".

They insist he knew the protocol deal involved checks on goods travelling between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, although he denied that fact in public.

But why would Mr Sunak attempt to solve this thorny and contentious post-Brexit issue with so much at stake - not least the politics and stability of Northern Ireland as well as of his own Conservative Party.

He already has plenty of other problems on his plate: strikes, a difficult upcoming budget, local elections in May with the Conservatives trailing in national polls.

But the EU understood the prime minister had a number of clear reasons to go for a revised Northern Ireland deal: both economic and political.

First and foremost, Mr Sunak hopes for improved relations with the US and the EU.

The Biden administration made it clear that previous UK government talk of unilaterally overriding the current Northern Ireland Agreement would not be "conducive" to a trade deal between the UK and US.

Additionally, this April sees the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday/Belfast Peace Agreement.

The prime minister is keen for President Biden to come. But first he needs to revise the protocol sufficiently to persuade the Democratic Unionist Party to join and therefore restore the power-sharing government in Northern Ireland.

Sunnier relations with the UK's biggest trade partner, the EU, is also advantageous for Mr Sunak.

Importantly, if this revised deal falls through, he would be forced to continue with a Bill to unilaterally override key parts of the protocol which could lead to a costly trade war with Brussels - something the prime minister very much hopes to avoid.

A revised agreement and improved bilateral trust could ease future deals with the EU - on the UK joining the attractive Horizon research programme for example, as well as on forging a post-Brexit deal on financial services and making it easier for UK musicians to travel throughout the EU.

It would also improve relations with France, just ahead of a big Franco-UK summit where combatting people-smuggler boats across the Channel will be a big topic of conversation.


EU-UK relations are already much improved since the fractious days of initial Brexit negotiations.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine reminded both sides of the values and priorities they share. They've worked closely on sanctions against Russia as well as on a country-by-country basis inside Nato.

There's much hope in the EU that rows over the Northern Ireland Protocol can now become a thing of the past.

The EU says it accepts the risk to its single market of reduced customs checks as a price worth paying.

So the ball has been in the UK's court for a while.

The challenge: how to package and present a deal in order to make it workable and acceptable to the key "stakeholders" - public and political in the UK.

Ursula von der Leyen travelling to the UK on Monday is seen as the last piece in the presentation puzzle, but back in Brussels EU diplomats mutter that they're not counting their chickens.

As one EU figure put it to me: "We know negotiations with us [the EU] are only part of a UK prime minister's journey. Brexit caused deep internal divisions in the UK. We have tried to negotiate a revised Northern Ireland deal. Now we watch and wait."

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Home Office Expands Border Security Operations and Intelligence Sharing With European Partners
Office for National Statistics Reports Modest Retail Sales Growth Ahead of Crucial Christmas Trading Season
Welsh Government Unveils Strategic Plan to Boost Regional Technology Innovation and Digital Skills Training
Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs Implements New Agricultural Subsidies Framework for English Farmers
Scottish First Minister John Swinney Announces Major Regional Infrastructure and Green Energy Investment Strategy
National Health Service Leaders Warn of Severe Winter Pressures and Mounting Accident and Emergency Backlogs
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Signals Cautious Interest Rate Path Amid Persistent Services Inflation
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves Finalizes Autumn Budget Framework Aiming to Close Public Sector Fiscal Gap
Department for Science, Innovation and Technology Prepares Enhanced Artificial Intelligence Safety and Cyber Defense Frameworks
United Kingdom Government Expands International Sanctions Framework Against Russian Shadow Fleet and Financial Enablers
Institute of Directors Reports Sharp Post-Budget Drop in Business Confidence Despite Long-Term Investment Intention Shifts
Chancellor John Healey Defends Sweeping Fiscal Adjustments and Household Support Packages Following Autumn Budget
Parliamentary Petitions Committee Schedules Major Legislative Debates on Special Educational Needs and Non-Stun Meat Labelling
Regional Devolution and Good Growth Fund Frameworks Reshape Local Government Funding Across English Regions
Loughborough University Economic Analysts Highlight Substantial Uncertainty Surrounding Public Sector Efficiency Savings
British Legal Sector Drives Sixty Billion Pounds in Annual Economic Output While Employing Over Half a Million Professionals
Law Society Welcomes New Better Regulation Executive While Pressing for Long-Term Legal Aid Funding Reform
Metropolitan Police and Security Services Heighten Operations Across London Ahead of Large-Scale Public Demonstrations
Bank of England Economists Scrutinize Corporate Tax Adjustments and Public Sector Borrowing Pressures
Chancellor John Healey Defends Autumn Budget Tax and Spending Allocations Following Intense Parliamentary Scrutiny
Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Implements Strict Water Quality Monitoring Rules Following Severe Rainfall and Flooding
Welsh Government Unveils Comprehensive Regional Housing Strategy to Address Rural Affordability and Homelessness Pressures in Cardiff
Office for National Statistics Reports Slowing Consumer Price Inflation and Steady Retail Performance Across United Kingdom Markets
Northern Ireland First Minister Michelle O'Neill and Deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly Advance Cross-Border Infrastructure Agreement in Belfast
Competition and Markets Authority Launches Formal Investigation Into Artificial Intelligence Partnerships Involving Major Technology Corporations
Scottish First Minister John Swinney Secures Cross-Party Support for Devolved Budget Framework and Renewable Energy Expansion
High Court Rules in Favor of Environmental Campaigners Over Department for Energy Security and Net Zero Licensing Procedures
National Health Service England Announces Major Digital Modernization and Artificial Intelligence Diagnostic Rollout Across Regional Trusts
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Signals Cautious Approach to Interest Rate Cuts Amid Persistent Wage Growth and Inflation Pressures
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves Outline Strategic Infrastructure Plans to Boost Regional Growth and Private Investment
Water pollution remains high despite £5bn investment
Regional Economic Divergence and Industrial Transformation
Technological Sovereignty and Regulatory Scrutiny
Fiscal Consolidation and Public Service Pressures
Automotive Industry Leadership Warns of Imminent Supply Chain Disruptions Following Recent European Trade Negotiations
High Court Delivers Landmark Ruling Affirming Strict Legal Protections for Corporate Data Privacy Against State Surveillance
Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan Secures Additional Funding for Regional Transport Infrastructure and Rail Modernization
Scottish First Minister John Swinney Announces Major Green Energy Infrastructure Investment Package for Aberdeen
Department for Work and Pensions Proposes Sweeping Welfare Reforms to Incentivize Long-Term Unemployed Back into Work
Competition and Markets Authority Launches Formal Investigation into Artificial Intelligence Partnerships Involving Major Tech Giants
United Kingdom Foreign Secretary David Lammy Concludes High-Level Strategic Talks in Washington on Middle East Security
National Health Service England Unveils Emergency Winter Resilience Plan to Combat Projected Surge in Emergency Admissions
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey Signals Cautious Approach to Interest Rate Cuts Amid Persistent Inflation
British Chancellor Rachel Reeves Finalizes Corporate Tax Overhaul Ahead of Autumn Budget to Fund Public Services
Automotive Manufacturers Urge Government Action as High Energy Costs and Global Supply Chain Disruptions Threaten Production
Metropolitan Police Issue Formal Apology Following Inadvertent Release of Confidential Information During High-Profile Investigation
Scottish Finance Secretary Shona Robison Unveils Devolved Budget Highlighting Housing and Public Service Adjustments
Energy Regulator Office of Gas and Electricity Markets Prepares to Remove Household Gas Standing Charges Following Treasury Mandate
Treasury Confirms Reversal of Planned Cash Individual Savings Account Allowance Reduction Protecting Twenty Thousand Pound Limit
Office for Budget Responsibility Revisions Predict Moderate United Kingdom Economic Growth with Elevated Inflation Pressures
×