London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Sep 04, 2026

Northern Ireland Protocol: Can PM sell a revised deal back home?

Northern Ireland Protocol: Can PM sell a revised deal back home?

"The jigsaw pieces are well known. They've been on the table for a while," a key EU figure recently told me. "It's a case now of both of us being brave enough to hold hands and jump."

Rishi Sunak and the European Commission President are both described by their teams as preferring not to sign a deal, rather than go for (another) one they believe is doomed to fail.

So will this work?

Brussels describes Rishi Sunak as a pragmatist. Yes, a Brexiteer but also a practical politician, solutions-focussed, rather than an ideologue.

EU diplomats compare him favourably to his predecessors Liz Truss, who they say "didn't dare touch the post-Brexit agreement on Northern Ireland" (you might question if she had the time in her short premiership?), and Boris Johnson, who EU leaders widely believe signed the agreement "in bad faith".

They insist he knew the protocol deal involved checks on goods travelling between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, although he denied that fact in public.

But why would Mr Sunak attempt to solve this thorny and contentious post-Brexit issue with so much at stake - not least the politics and stability of Northern Ireland as well as of his own Conservative Party.

He already has plenty of other problems on his plate: strikes, a difficult upcoming budget, local elections in May with the Conservatives trailing in national polls.

But the EU understood the prime minister had a number of clear reasons to go for a revised Northern Ireland deal: both economic and political.

First and foremost, Mr Sunak hopes for improved relations with the US and the EU.

The Biden administration made it clear that previous UK government talk of unilaterally overriding the current Northern Ireland Agreement would not be "conducive" to a trade deal between the UK and US.

Additionally, this April sees the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday/Belfast Peace Agreement.

The prime minister is keen for President Biden to come. But first he needs to revise the protocol sufficiently to persuade the Democratic Unionist Party to join and therefore restore the power-sharing government in Northern Ireland.

Sunnier relations with the UK's biggest trade partner, the EU, is also advantageous for Mr Sunak.

Importantly, if this revised deal falls through, he would be forced to continue with a Bill to unilaterally override key parts of the protocol which could lead to a costly trade war with Brussels - something the prime minister very much hopes to avoid.

A revised agreement and improved bilateral trust could ease future deals with the EU - on the UK joining the attractive Horizon research programme for example, as well as on forging a post-Brexit deal on financial services and making it easier for UK musicians to travel throughout the EU.

It would also improve relations with France, just ahead of a big Franco-UK summit where combatting people-smuggler boats across the Channel will be a big topic of conversation.


EU-UK relations are already much improved since the fractious days of initial Brexit negotiations.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine reminded both sides of the values and priorities they share. They've worked closely on sanctions against Russia as well as on a country-by-country basis inside Nato.

There's much hope in the EU that rows over the Northern Ireland Protocol can now become a thing of the past.

The EU says it accepts the risk to its single market of reduced customs checks as a price worth paying.

So the ball has been in the UK's court for a while.

The challenge: how to package and present a deal in order to make it workable and acceptable to the key "stakeholders" - public and political in the UK.

Ursula von der Leyen travelling to the UK on Monday is seen as the last piece in the presentation puzzle, but back in Brussels EU diplomats mutter that they're not counting their chickens.

As one EU figure put it to me: "We know negotiations with us [the EU] are only part of a UK prime minister's journey. Brexit caused deep internal divisions in the UK. We have tried to negotiate a revised Northern Ireland deal. Now we watch and wait."

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Scottish Tech Company PureLifi Enters Administration With More Than 40 Job Losses
Scottish Government Names Alyn Smith Innovation and Education Minister
Green Party Co-Leader Zack Polanski to Contest By-Election for Keir Starmer’s Former Seat
Palestine Action Activists Appeal Terrorism-Related Prison Sentences
PwC Report Highlights Persistent Regional Spending-Power Divide Across Britain
UK Names Hundreds of Employers for Minimum Wage Violations
UK Commits £400 Million to International Tropical Forest Fund
UK Extends £2 Bus Fare Cap Across England Through 2027
UK Warns Travellers as US-Iran Tensions Disrupt Middle East Security and Shipping
Andy Burnham Faces Kemi Badenoch in First Prime Minister’s Questions
Kemi Badenoch Names Andrew Griffith Shadow Chancellor in Conservative Reshuffle
UK Treasury and Markets Focus on Fiscal Headroom Ahead of Autumn Budget
UK Government Reverses Early Release Plans for Serious Violent and Sexual Offences
UK and France Review Border Cooperation After 48,000 Small-Boat Crossings Prevented
UK Growth Outlook Weakens as Inflation and Energy Costs Rise
Breeding Tropical Mosquitoes Discovered in East London
Sadiq Khan Agrees to Search of Digital Communications in Palantir Lawsuit
Scottish Protesters Call for Moratorium on AI Data Centre Expansion
Uber Drivers Bring London Class Action Over Algorithmic Management
Reform UK Accepts £4 Million Donation From Cryptocurrency Billionaire Pardoned by Trump
Justice Secretary Tightens Early Release Scheme to Exclude Manslaughter Offenders
Kemi Badenoch Reshuffles Conservative Team as Reform UK Pressure Grows
British Mortgage Rates Rise as Global Bond Sell-Off Pushes Up Borrowing Costs
UK Records Hottest Summer on Record in 2026
UK Government Urges Households to Stock Essential Supplies Ahead of Severe El Niño Risk
UK Prepares Targeted Sanctions Over Israeli Settlements in West Bank
Reform UK Faces Electoral and Police Scrutiny Over Foreign Donation Allegations
UK and France Expand Channel Migration Cooperation as Trade Tensions Surface
UK Marks Merchant Navy Day With Tribute to Civilian Seafarers
Burnham Pays Tribute to Two Police Officers Killed on Duty in Northern England
Booking.com Left Fake Downing Street Listing Online for Two Months, Which Says
Burnham and Macron to Review UK-France Cooperation on Channel Crossings
UK Business Confidence Improves Slightly but Investment Concerns Persist
Burnham Faces Pressure Over Future North Sea Oil and Gas Licences
Burnham Pushes Wider English Devolution Through ‘Number Ten North’
British Chambers of Commerce Raises 2026 UK Growth Forecast to 1%
Keir Starmer Resigns as Holborn and St Pancras MP, Triggering By-Election
UK Chancellor Faces Tighter Budget Headroom as Long-Term Borrowing Costs Rise
UK Government Weighs Thames Water Nationalisation as Financial Crisis Deepens
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Faces First Commons Questions Over Tax and Spending Plans
Eleven British Seafarers Receive Merchant Navy Medal
Which? Creates Fake 10 Downing Street Rental Listing to Expose Booking.com Vetting Weaknesses
BP Appoints New Chairman in Effort to Stabilise Leadership
Aberdeen Sells Hydrogen Bus Fleet at Heavy Loss After Green Transport Experiment
UK Records Hottest Summer on Record as Climate Change Intensifies Extreme Heat
Scotland Pledges to End Temporary Accommodation for Children and Build 111,000 Affordable Homes
DNO Agrees $396 Million Deal to Acquire Capricorn Energy
Uber and Wayve Launch UK’s First Supervised Autonomous Ride-Hailing Service in London
Britain Expected to Avoid New US Tariffs Targeting European Union
Middle East Conflict Pushes UK Energy Costs Higher and Revives Inflation Concerns
×