French parliamentary politics this week turned into a game of liar’s poker in which winners are losers and losers are winners.

Two votes of confidence in the National Assembly on Monday night, when the far right and far left voted against the government, failed to bring down the centrist Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne. The unexpected joint vote could, all the same, signal trouble ahead.

Borne was a “winner,” but she came within 50 votes of being forced out of office — a much narrower margin than expected.

Borne and President Emmanuel Macron proved that they can muddle on, despite losing their parliamentary majority in June. They have successfully used emergency provisions in the constitution to impose a first reading of the government’s 2023 budget.

They will use the same provisions over and over — as the constitution permits — to push through spending plans in the coming weeks. Enacting a budget is, however, the minimum required of a government.

The narrowness of Monday’s vote suggests that Macron and Borne will find it harder to push through other more radical legislation, such as their planned reform of the French pension system — a centerpiece of Macron’s reelection agenda. They can use their emergency powers under article 49.3 of the Constitution only once a year for non-financial legislation.

The clear tactical “winner” of the night was the far-right leader Marine Le Pen. After bluffing the Assembly and the media, she switched her party’s 89 votes at the last minute to support a censure motion tabled by the left.

Le Pen is now able to claim that she is a sincere, non-partisan and pragmatic opponent of Macronism, willing to vote with her enemies on the left to bring down the government and risk an early election.

In fact, she knew perfectly well that she risked no such thing.

Most of the bloc of 62 center-right deputies belonging or allied to Les Républicains had announced that they would not support a no-confidence motion. It was their votes, or non-votes, which saved the government — as Le Pen knew they would.

An absolute majority — 289 votes — of the 577 deputies was needed. The alliance of the left and far right assembled 239 votes — 50 short.

The center-right bloc were also “winners” of a kind — but uncomfortable in victory. They hold the balance of power in the splintered Assembly but they are themselves splintered.

France’s PM Elisabeth Borne and President Emmanuel Macron proved that they can muddle on, despite losing their parliamentary majority in June

Some are inclined to support the government. Others detest Macron and all his works, blaming him for the implosion of their once-dominant party.

Le Pen’s decision to switch her vote and support the left wing no-confidence motion — as well as her own — was intended largely to embarrass the center-right Les Républicains. After the vote, she described them as an “oyster bed” — that is, unable to walk away and ripe for harvesting. “There is no longer any doubt that the Républicains are allies of Emmanuel Macron,” she said.

Some in the left-wing alliance also claimed victory. It was, after all, their no-confidence motion, not Le Pen’s, which came closest to unseating the government.

In truth, Le Pen’s sleight of hand was a moral victory over the left. A few weeks ago, left-wing deputies refused to turn out for a parliamentary football team because it had Lepennist players. On Monday night, they abruptly found themselves lining up on the same half of the political pitch as Le Pen.

In June’s parliamentary election, and the April presidential election, some anti-Macron voters on the left switched in round two of the vote to support the far right. Le Pen will hope that this week’s de facto unholy alliance with the left will persuade more leftists to join her if she reaches the presidential runoff against a centrist in 2027.

In the short term, last night’s vote is reassuring to Macron and Borne — but it is also a warning.

As Borne pointed out, there is “no alternative majority” capable of governing the country; there is only a negative alliance of extremes “with no common values, shared convictions and coherent ambitions.”

On the other hand, an endless series of narrow government victories by emergency procedures and confidence motions is a hazardous way to govern a country in which politics goes so readily to the street.

The Macron-Borne government can survive. Can it truly govern?

Macron appears determined to prove that it can. He says he will push through the pension reform by March, using once again the emergency guillotine provisions of Article 49.3 if necessary. He has said that he will not hesitate to call an early election if the government loses a confidence vote.

The left and far right will presumably combine again to try to defeat him. All will therefore depend on Les Républicains. Their response will depend partly on the outcome of an uncertain party leadership election in December.

Logically, all 62 center-right deputies should vote for Macron’s plan to push back the minimum retirement to 64 by 2027 (and 65 eventually). The LR party has long campaigned for a similar reform. The squeezed center-right has every reason to fear an early election if it voted to bring down the Borne government.

Macron and Borne could therefore force pension reform through the Assembly with de facto center-right support in the New Year. The question raised by Monday’s vote is finally one of political courage or obstinacy rather than parliamentary arithmetic.

Should a government with such a fragile mandate, in such difficult times, impose a controversial reform which is opposed by two thirds of French people?

The answer, in the end, may come not in the National Assembly but on the street.