London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Saturday, Jul 26, 2025

Londoners brace for blockbuster economy week with interest rate hike and prices  data

Londoners brace for blockbuster economy week with interest rate hike and prices data

Bank of England tops the bill in a key week that will set the tone for the economy and consumers into 2023
Londoners are facing a blockbuster week for the economy, one which will set the tone for homeowners, consumers and investors alike into 2023.

We will find out if there is hope that inflation may have peaked in the run up to Christmas during a cost-of-living crisis with interest rates poised to go up, and there will also be numbers on joblessness and average earnings.

The Bank of England is top of the bill, with its December announcement on interest rates at high noon on Thursday. A hike is all but certain and will pile pressure on mortgage holders, with policymakers determined to tame double-digit inflation.

City experts agree that the only question is how big the Monetary Policy Committee’s hike will be after it voted for 0.75% last time, which took base rates to 3%. Andrew Goodwin, chief UK economist at Oxford Economics predicts a “pivot back to a 0.50% rise,” adding:

“There’s a good chance a minority of members will support a smaller rise or even keeping rates unchanged, which would support our view that investors remain too bullish on how high rates will peak.” Markets currently expect the BoE’s base rate to top out between 4.5% and 4.75% as the MPC tries to bring inflation down toward its 2% target

Its nine members will have plenty to discuss before their rate vote from a slew of important numbers due out earlier in the week.

First up is the monthly number on the size of the economy. Due on Monday at 7 a.m., the gross domestic product reading tracks the value of all the goods and services produced in the UK and will shed further light on whether it is already in recession.

The widely accepted recession definition kicks in with two consecutive quarters of contraction. After a decline in the third quarter, the data won’t take the UK past that line until the end of December. But the October numbers will offer another signpost on the journey, with many economists already convinced recession has arrived, while the Bank of England itself says it is on the way.

According to forecasts from Deutsche Bank, October GDP will rise by 0.4%, bouncing back from a drop of 0.6% in September, which was largely driven by the public holiday held for the funeral of Queen Elizabeth II.

Sanjay Raja, chief UK economist at Deutsche, predicts that when fourth quarter data arrives, it will indicate recession, which he expects ”to last four quarters, with GDP shrinking by around 1.5% peak-to-trough.” He adds: “The ongoing cost of living crisis, elevated economic uncertainty, and rising cost pressures all point to a deteriorating outlook in the months ahead.”

So far, the jobs market has been resilient during the downturn. Employment data, out on Tuesday at 7 a.m., is expected to show a relatively low jobless rate at 3.6%. Average earnings data will be paid close attention by the BoE as it fights inflation. HSBC estimates that the weekly rise in pay will reach 6.2%

Wednesday will also be a busy day, bringing headline inflation data for November. HSBC expects it ease back slightly to 10.9% from 11.1% in October. But that will leave it significantly above the BoE’s official target of 2%, leaving the way wide open for rate hikes.

But James Hughes, chief analyst at Scope Markets said: “It’s vital to remember that the inflation we saw a year ago has not been sustained. Wheat and crude oil are now back at level seen before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, suggesting that some significant contraction will be seen here in the next few months.”

By the end of a stellar week for economic data, Londoners should have a clearer picture of where they stand in terms of recession, the cost-of-living crisis and the outlook for interest rates and mortgage costs.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Deputy attorney general's second day of meeting with Ghislaine Maxwell has concluded
Controversial March in Switzerland Features Men Dressed in Nazi Uniforms
Politics is a good business: Barack Obama’s Reported Net Worth Growth, 1990–2025
Thai Civilian Death Toll Rises to 12 in Cambodian Cross-Border Attacks
TSUNAMI: Trump Just Crossed the Rubicon—And There’s No Turning Back
Over 120 Criminal Cases Dismissed in Boston Amid Public Defender Shortage
UN's Top Court Declares Environmental Protection a Legal Obligation Under International Law
"Crazy Thing": OpenAI's Sam Altman Warns Of AI Voice Fraud Crisis In Banking
The Podcaster Who Accidentally Revealed He Earns Over $10 Million a Year
Trump Announces $550 Billion Japanese Investment and New Trade Agreements with Indonesia and the Philippines
US Treasury Secretary Calls for Institutional Review of Federal Reserve Amid AI‑Driven Growth Expectations
UK Government Considers Dropping Demand for Apple Encryption Backdoor
Severe Flooding in South Korea Claims Lives Amid Ongoing Rescue Operations
Japanese Man Discovers Family Connection Through DNA Testing After Decades of Separation
Russia Signals Openness to Ukraine Peace Talks Amid Escalating Drone Warfare
Switzerland Implements Ban on Mammography Screening
Japanese Prime Minister Vows to Stay After Coalition Loses Upper House Majority
Pogacar Extends Dominance with Stage Fifteen Triumph at Tour de France
CEO Resigns Amid Controversy Over Relationship with HR Executive
Man Dies After Being Pulled Into MRI Machine Due to Metal Chain in New York Clinic
NVIDIA Achieves $4 Trillion Valuation Amid AI Demand
US Revokes Visas of Brazilian Corrupted Judges Amid Fake Bolsonaro Investigation
U.S. Congress Approves Rescissions Act Cutting Federal Funding for NPR and PBS
North Korea Restricts Foreign Tourist Access to New Seaside Resort
Brazil's Supreme Court Imposes Radical Restrictions on Former President Bolsonaro
Centrist Criticism of von der Leyen Resurfaces as she Survives EU Confidence Vote
Judge Criticizes DOJ Over Secrecy in Dropping Charges Against Gang Leader
Apple Closes $16.5 Billion Tax Dispute With Ireland
Von der Leyen Faces Setback Over €2 Trillion EU Budget Proposal
UK and Germany Collaborate on Global Military Equipment Sales
Trump Plans Over 10% Tariffs on African and Caribbean Nations
Flying Taxi CEO Reclaims Billionaire Status After Stock Surge
Epstein Files Deepen Republican Party Divide
Zuckerberg Faces $8 Billion Privacy Lawsuit From Meta Shareholders
FIFA Pressured to Rethink World Cup Calendar Due to Climate Change
SpaceX Nears $400 Billion Valuation With New Share Sale
Microsoft, US Lab to Use AI for Faster Nuclear Plant Licensing
Trump Walks Back Talk of Firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell
Zelensky Reshuffles Cabinet to Win Support at Home and in Washington
"Can You Hit Moscow?" Trump Asked Zelensky To Make Putin "Feel The Pain"
Irish Tech Worker Detained 100 days by US Authorities for Overstaying Visa
Dimon Warns on Fed Independence as Trump Administration Eyes Powell’s Succession
Church of England Removes 1991 Sexuality Guidelines from Clergy Selection
Superman Franchise Achieves Success with Latest Release
Hungary's Viktor Orban Rejects Agreements on Illegal Migration
Jeff Bezos Considers Purchasing Condé Nast as a Wedding Gift
Ghislaine Maxwell Says She’s Ready to Testify Before Congress on Epstein’s Criminal Empire
Bal des Pompiers: A Celebration of Community and Firefighter Culture in France
FBI Chief Kash Patel Denies Resignation Speculations Amid Epstein List Controversy
Air India Pilot’s Mental Health Records Under Scrutiny
×