London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Aug 05, 2026

Liz Truss’s tax and spending plans sow consternation among economists

Liz Truss’s tax and spending plans sow consternation among economists

Analysis: experts are lining up to warn that her policies will increase inflation and leave the UK with higher debt

Liz Truss claims her economic agenda of tax cuts and public spending will revitalise the UK economy, but it is not just her rival prime ministerial candidate Rishi Sunak arguing that the measures will be self-defeating.

Economists have lined up to warn that her £30bn package – including the reversal of this year’s national insurance rise, the suspension of green levies on power bills, and the cancellation of a sharp rise in corporation tax in 2023 – will increase inflation and leave the government with higher debt bills.

The foreign secretary and frontrunner in the race for the Tory leadership has criticised the Treasury’s economic record during her opponent’s time as chancellor, saying it has been timid and “contractionary” when it should have been promoting growth.




Citing other European countries that have spent more money supporting households hit by the cost of living crisis, Truss has said she would allow people to keep more of their own money by taxing less. She has also touted a carer’s allowance and pushing defence spending up to 3% of GDP – amounting to an extra £86bn over the next five years – as ways to help the UK avoid a recession.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England has come under attack from Truss and her allies because she claims looser government spending should have a counterweight in tighter policy on controlling the money supply.

Harking back to Margaret Thatcher’s stance in 1979, Truss believes inflation is partly the result of cheap borrowing fostered by the central bank, so tighter monetary policy would limit rising prices. Last weekend she said the government should “look again” at the Bank’s mandate “to make sure it is tough enough on inflation”.

At the moment the BoE is independent and arrives at its own policies to bring down inflation to a 2% target. Truss is likely to cause consternation in financial markets if she seeks to meddle in the central bank’s decision-making.

Nick Macpherson, the former Treasury permanent secretary, described the tax-cutting proposals of Sunak’s rival Tory candidates, including Truss, as “less the heirs to Margaret Thatcher; more the disciples of Recep [Tayyip] Erdoğan”.

Turkey’s president has sacked more than five central bank bosses because they failed to pursue his chosen interest rate policy. It has left the country with a near-80% inflation rate and a currency worth 90% less than when Erdoğan began running the country almost 20 years ago.

Ben Nabarro, UK economist at Citi, said: “Liz Truss’ policy platform poses the greatest risk from an economic perspective with an unseemly combination of pro-cyclical tax cuts and institutional disruption.”

Robert Joyce of the Institute for Fiscal Studies thinktank warned that her £30bn worth of pledges would have implications beyond the tax system that remain unclear.

But one thing is for sure: “they will mean higher borrowing or less public spending, or some combination”, so vast swathes of Whitehall and welfare spending will need to come under the hammer. “In the end, lower taxes do mean lower spending.”

Truss’s strategy does have some backing, however. The economist Gerard Lyons emerged as a potential supporter after he told the BBC Radio 4’s World at One: “We need tighter monetary policy to tackle inflation and looser fiscal policy to promote growth.”

He dismissed claims that targeted tax cuts would be inflationary and self-defeating, saying a sharp reduction in fuel duty by cutting the green levy would push down transport costs.

Truss also cited Patrick Minford as an economist who approved her approach. The Cardiff University academic came to prominence ahead of the Brexit referendum, which he claimed could generate £135bn in extra income for the UK. Last year the government’s independent forecasters at the Office for Budget Responsibility assessed it would cost around £80bn in lost income.

The OBR also warned this month that tax cuts rarely pay for themselves. Worse for Truss and her proposals, it said, Britain’s public finances were on an “unsustainable” long-term path, with a debt burden that could more than treble without further tax rises to cover the mounting cost of an ageing population and falling fuel duties.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Spain and Morocco Trade Blame After 72,000 Migrants Enter Ceuta
Met Police Investigated Journalist Who Questioned Cambridge Professor
Badenoch Defends Tory Candidate Jailed for Antisemitic Abuse of Luciana Berger
NHS Spends £240m a Year Storing Paper Records Despite Digital Push
Apple Seeks Court Order to Stop OpenAI Using Alleged Trade Secrets
Breaking With the Past: One of the World’s Smallest Countries Changes Its Name
AI Is Remaking the US Economy, From GDP Growth to iPhone Prices
Comcast: Tied to a Chair and Hit in the Face With Cake: The Regular Humiliation Ritual at the US Corporate Giant
Aston Martin Faces Legal Threat Over £550m Rescue Deal
Conservative Party and Reform UK Face Growing Scrutiny Over Political Transparency
GMB and Public Sector Unions Prepare for Wider Debate Over Government Priorities
UK Government Faces Pressure to Address National Water Infrastructure Failures
NHS Radiographers Report Rising Racist Abuse From Patients
Breast Cancer Experts Call for Overhaul of NHS Diagnostic Approach
UK Government Reviews Prison Policy After Debate Over Capacity and Public Safety
Nigel Farage Faces Questions Over Leadership Discussions and Five Million Pound Donation
Conservative Party Faces Candidate Controversy Over Former Antisemitic Activist
UK Energy Industry Pushes for Greater Role for Domestic Oil and Gas Production
Gatwick Expansion Debate Continues as Airport Prepares for Second Runway Construction
Reform UK Wants the Royal Navy to Return Channel Boats to France
Government Faces Pressure Over Charity Funding Linked to Illegal Israeli Settlements
UK Fire Chiefs Demand Ban on Disposable Barbecues During Severe Drought
Medical Review Warns Current Breast Cancer Guidelines Miss Many Young Women
NHS Mental Health Trust Announces Twenty-Five Million Pound Service Cuts
MI6 Rated Europe’s Most Capable Foreign Intelligence Service in International Review
UK Watchdog Finds Serious Failures in Electronic Offender Monitoring System
BP Chief Warns UK Must Protect Domestic Oil and Gas Capacity
Water Supply Crisis Threatens England’s Housing Expansion Plans
UK Government Rewrites Procurement Rules to Prioritise Jobs Over Environmental Targets
English Channel Rescue Operation Saves One Hundred Seventy-Three Migrants After Boat Capsizes
Gatwick Airport Wins Legal Approval for Second Runway Expansion
UK Government Tightens Early Prison Release Scheme After Public Backlash Over Offender Freedoms
US and Japan Step In to Support the Yen in Rare Joint Intervention
The AI Pricing Problem: Companies Cannot Predict Their Own Bills
Europe’s Heat and Drought Are Now Disrupting Power, Shipping and Tourism
Apple’s OpenAI Lawsuit Becomes a Public Fight Over AI Hardware
UK Man Jailed After Keeping His Mother’s Body in a Freezer and Claiming £78,000
A SpaceX Rocket Is About to Crash Into the Moon — and Scientists Hope to Watch
World War II munitions discovered after wildfires in southern France
BP profits reach four-year high amid Middle East conflict
Europe’s Drying Rivers Trigger Power Cuts, Factory Shutdowns and Wildfire Emergencies
UK Driver Sentenced to Four Years for Staged Electric Vehicle Brake Failure Fraud
Conservative Party and Reform UK Face Scrutiny During Clacton By-Election Campaign
Ministry of Justice Reviews Early Release Rules After Public Anger Over Police Killer Cases
NHS Radiographers Report Rising Racist Abuse From Patients Across UK Hospitals
UK Banking Regulators Face Pressure After Customer Loses Fourteen Thousand Pounds in AI Voice Scam
Research Challenges Treasury Control Over UK Public Spending and Calls for Greater Local Decision-Making
Home Office Begins Four-Week Weapons Surrender Campaign Across Major English Cities
Southern England Records Driest July in Nearly Two Centuries as Drought Concerns Grow
Apple Challenges UK Government Request for Access to Encrypted User Data in Legal Fight
×