Labour Leads in UK General Election Poll Tracker

Labour, led by Keir Starmer, is leading in polls for the upcoming UK general election, potentially challenging 13 years of Conservative rule. The final election date is January 2025, but Prime Minister Rishi Sunak could call it earlier. The Guardian tracks polling averages and Electoral Calculus predicts parliamentary seats using a specialized model.

As the next UK general election approaches, Labour, led by Keir Starmer, has maintained a consistent lead in the polls since early 2022.

The final date for the election is January 2025, but Prime Minister Rishi Sunak could call it earlier.

The Guardian tracks polling averages from major British polling companies and displays voting intentions over a moving 10-day period.

The Scottish National Party (SNP) is excluded from this data since its concentrated support in Scotland signifies it will win more seats despite lower national vote shares.

Electoral Calculus uses demographic and polling data to predict parliamentary seat outcomes through a multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model.

However, seat projections can vary due to the UK's first-past-the-post system and localized voting patterns.

Poll averages exclude Northern Ireland, focusing instead on Great Britain-wide support, updated daily and sourced from British Polling Council members.

The seat projections are updated monthly.

This data and analysis significantly illuminate potential election outcomes.