London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Saturday, Aug 02, 2025

‘It’s his turf’: why London’s mayoral race is personal for Boris Johnson

‘It’s his turf’: why London’s mayoral race is personal for Boris Johnson

Analysis: at the root of the PM’s outburst against Sadiq Khan is his anger at the Tories’ expected humbling in May

Boris Johnson had almost finished his most recent Downing Street press conference, when his tone suddenly changed. Sadiq Khan had left a “black hole” in Transport for London’s finances, said the energised prime minister, and the capital’s mayor should be held to account for his profligacy.

Beyond the ensuing controversy about Johnson using a Covid-focused event to launch a partisan attack, his words demonstrated something else: the prime minister was still deeply invested in a city he ran for eight years, and painfully aware that a successor as Conservative mayor looks increasingly unlikely.

A series of polls, including one on Tuesday, put Khan, the Labour mayor who took over from Johnson in 2016, on 50% or more of first-choice votes on 6 May, more than 20 points ahead of his Tory rival, Shaun Bailey.

While many Conservatives privately blame Bailey’s often hapless campaign and candidacy for the gap, it also illustrates one of the starkest changes to affect British politics in recent years – a more general Conservative collapse in London.

Tony Travers, visiting professor at the London School of Economics’ department of government, has produced a chart showing how the general election vote share in London, which broadly tracked the wider totals in Britain for decades, started to diverge widely in the late 90s, and in particular since 2010.


At the 2019 election, Labour’s London vote share was 15 percentage points higher than its national total; the Conservatives’ was 13% points lower. Since 1992, the number of London seats held by Tory MPs has nearly halved.

It is, Travers says, in part down to national factors, such as changes in party allegiance that mean younger, urban voters increasingly support Labour. Additionally, London’s demographics have changed.

Johnson’s mayoral election wins in 2008 and 2012 were largely based on a “doughnut” strategy – harvesting votes from more suburban, and often more predominantly white, outer suburbs. However, Travers says, outer London is increasingly diverse – “more like inner London used to be”. A YouGov poll last week found Khan winning easily in outer London, with a 45% to 28% lead over Bailey on first preference votes.

The Conservatives could very easily drop below their current low of eight of the 25 London assembly seats, Travers predicted, while in the next round of London council elections, in 2022, more boroughs could become, in effect, one-party Labour states.

To an extent, history is repeating itself. The Conservative-led push to create the Greater London Council in the early 60s was in part to expand the capital’s local government into the suburbs, after 31 years of continuous Labour rule on its inner-city predecessor, London county council.

However, there is a notably personal element. Johnson’s eight years running London are central to his personal mythology as a politician, and were arguably key to his appeal to Conservatives to replace Theresa May, as someone who had proved he could win in Labour strongholds. He delivered on this, winning an 80-seat Commons majority by re-colouring much of Labour’s “red wall” seats in blue.

This time, Johnson’s appeal across the party divides was very different. In city hall, Johnson combined very recognisably Conservative attitudes to issues such as policing with an at times liberal image – an Islington-dwelling, cycling mayor who backed an amnesty for undocumented migrants. In contrast, as prime minister he was the designer of an ultra-tough Brexit, presiding over a No 10 fizzing with forays into culture wars on race, statues and the BBC.

Shaun Bailey earlier this month. Many Tories privately blame his hapless campaign.

As a politician, Johnson is famously adaptable, but some close observers wonder whether, at heart, he was more comfortable with the mayoral incarnation. One thing is certain: he seems to take the expected Conservative electoral humbling in London very personally.

“I think he feels it’s his turf, as it were, and it’s quite possible he resents the Tories losing there,” says Jenny Jones, a Green peer who, as a London assembly member, had many clashes with the then-mayor.

Jones wonders whether the government’s recent announcement that the London election system will be moved to first past the post, penalising smaller parties such as hers, could in part be a belated revenge: “I think he did find it very uncomfortable to be so challenged. It must have annoyed him that we were there, constantly drawing attention to his flaws.”

While Johnson remains publicly loyal to Bailey, there is an inescapable sense that he feels that if he were unleashed into the mayoral fray again, he would have a chance of defeating Khan.

But those on the other side of London’s political divide view this as fantasy. “Johnson has constantly underestimated Sadiq,” says one ally of the Labour mayor. “And he does seem to take Sadiq’s success very personally.” Khan, they argue, is as adept as Johnson in waging war in the “new age of social value politics”, for example his public disputes with Donald Trump.

And while Conservatives may hope that a disastrous London election next month will be largely down to Bailey’s failings, this would be a false comfort, the ally said: “That would make sense if more than half of Londoners had even heard of Shaun Bailey. But they haven’t.”

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Germany Enters Fiscal Crisis as Cabinet Approves €174 Billion in New Debt
Trump Administration Finalizes Broad Tariff Increases on Global Trade Partners
J.K. Rowling Limits Public Engagements Citing Safety Fears
JD.com Launches €2.2 Billion Bid for German Electronics Retailer Ceconomy
Azerbaijan Proceeds with Plan to Legalise Casinos on Artificial Islands
Former Judge Charged After Drunk Driving Crash Kills Comedian in Brazil
Jeff Bezos hasn’t paid a dollar in taxes for decades. He makes billions and pays $0 in taxes, LEGALLY
China Increases Use of Exit Bans Amid Rising U.S. Tensions
IMF Upgrades Global Growth Forecast as Weaker Dollar Supports Outlook
Procter & Gamble to Raise U.S. Prices to Offset One‑Billion‑Dollar Tariff Cost
House Republicans Move to Defund OECD Over Global Tax Dispute
Botswana Seeks Controlling Stake in De Beers as Anglo American Prepares Exit
Trump Administration Proposes Repeal of Obama‑Era Endangerment Finding, Dismantling Regulatory Basis for CO₂ Emissions Limits
France Opens Criminal Investigation into X Over Algorithm Manipulation Allegations
A family has been arrested in the UK for displaying the British flag
Mel Gibson refuses to work with Robert De Niro, saying, "Keep that woke clown away from me."
Trump Steamrolls EU in Landmark Trade Win: US–EU Trade Deal Imposes 15% Tariff on European Imports
ChatGPT CEO Sam Altman says people share personal info with ChatGPT but don’t know chats can be used as court evidence in legal cases.
The British propaganda channel BBC News lies again.
Deputy attorney general's second day of meeting with Ghislaine Maxwell has concluded
Controversial March in Switzerland Features Men Dressed in Nazi Uniforms
Politics is a good business: Barack Obama’s Reported Net Worth Growth, 1990–2025
Thai Civilian Death Toll Rises to 12 in Cambodian Cross-Border Attacks
TSUNAMI: Trump Just Crossed the Rubicon—And There’s No Turning Back
Over 120 Criminal Cases Dismissed in Boston Amid Public Defender Shortage
UN's Top Court Declares Environmental Protection a Legal Obligation Under International Law
"Crazy Thing": OpenAI's Sam Altman Warns Of AI Voice Fraud Crisis In Banking
The Podcaster Who Accidentally Revealed He Earns Over $10 Million a Year
Trump Announces $550 Billion Japanese Investment and New Trade Agreements with Indonesia and the Philippines
US Treasury Secretary Calls for Institutional Review of Federal Reserve Amid AI‑Driven Growth Expectations
UK Government Considers Dropping Demand for Apple Encryption Backdoor
Severe Flooding in South Korea Claims Lives Amid Ongoing Rescue Operations
Japanese Man Discovers Family Connection Through DNA Testing After Decades of Separation
Russia Signals Openness to Ukraine Peace Talks Amid Escalating Drone Warfare
Switzerland Implements Ban on Mammography Screening
Japanese Prime Minister Vows to Stay After Coalition Loses Upper House Majority
Pogacar Extends Dominance with Stage Fifteen Triumph at Tour de France
CEO Resigns Amid Controversy Over Relationship with HR Executive
Man Dies After Being Pulled Into MRI Machine Due to Metal Chain in New York Clinic
NVIDIA Achieves $4 Trillion Valuation Amid AI Demand
US Revokes Visas of Brazilian Corrupted Judges Amid Fake Bolsonaro Investigation
U.S. Congress Approves Rescissions Act Cutting Federal Funding for NPR and PBS
North Korea Restricts Foreign Tourist Access to New Seaside Resort
Brazil's Supreme Court Imposes Radical Restrictions on Former President Bolsonaro
Centrist Criticism of von der Leyen Resurfaces as she Survives EU Confidence Vote
Judge Criticizes DOJ Over Secrecy in Dropping Charges Against Gang Leader
Apple Closes $16.5 Billion Tax Dispute With Ireland
Von der Leyen Faces Setback Over €2 Trillion EU Budget Proposal
UK and Germany Collaborate on Global Military Equipment Sales
Trump Plans Over 10% Tariffs on African and Caribbean Nations
×