London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Sep 17, 2026

Is China preparing to invade Taiwan? Key questions answered

Is China preparing to invade Taiwan? Key questions answered

Tensions are rising in the Taiwan Strait after China launched its biggest-ever military drills following US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei.

China has launched its biggest-ever military drills around Taiwan, firing ballistic missiles and deploying dozens of fighter jets and warships, in response to a visit to the self-ruled island by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Beijing called Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan, which it views as Chinese territory, a “dangerous, reckless and irresponsible provocation” by the United States against China. It said the ongoing military drills, which began on Thursday and will last until Sunday, are aimed at demonstrating its resolve to uphold its “sovereignty and territorial integrity”.

The exercises have ratcheted up tensions in the region, with Japan saying several missiles fired by Chinese forces landed in its exclusive economic zone (EEZ), while the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) warned the situation risked “miscalculation, serious confrontation, open conflicts and unpredictable consequences among major powers”.

Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen, meanwhile, issued a statement late on Thursday calling on the international community to help end China’s “unilateral and irrational military actions”. She also said Taiwan would not provoke conflicts, but would firmly defend its sovereignty and national security.

China deployed dozens of planes and fired live missiles near Taiwan in a show of force in the Taiwan Strait on Thursday


As frictions escalate, here are answers to three key questions:

How worrying are China’s military drills?


Chinese state media say the live-fire sea and air exercises are taking place in six zones around Taiwan, which lies 180km (112 miles) off China’s coast. They involve more than 100 planes, including fighter jets and bombers and 10 warships, according to CCTV.

Taiwan has condemned the exercises, saying some infringe on Taiwan’s territorial waters and amount to a sea and air blockade of the island.

On the first day of the drills, Chinese rocket forces fired several ballistic missiles into the waters around Taiwan, a first since 1996. Taiwan’s defence ministry said 11 missiles had been fired and identified them as Dongfeng ballistic weapons.

Japan said at least five missiles landed in its EEZ, a zone that stretches 200 nautical miles (370km or 230 miles) from the outer limits of its territorial seas, and has lodged strong diplomatic protests over the move.

Authorities in Taiwan also urged ships and planes travelling in the area to find alternative routes, and on Thursday cancelled dozens of flights at the Taoyuan Airport in the capital, Taipei. South Korea’s Korean Air and Asiana Airlines also suspended services to Taiwan for one or two days because of the exercises, according to local media.

The six areas around Taiwan where China is holding live-fire military exercises until Sunday


Could China invade Taiwan? And how difficult would that be?


China’s unprecedented drills have revived questions about whether Beijing intends to launch an invasion of Taiwan, especially with the state-run tabloid Global Times running commentary from experts describing the exercises as a rehearsal for “reunification”.

“In the event of a future military conflict, it is likely that the operational plans currently being rehearsed will be directly translated into combat operations,” it quoted Chinese mainland military analyst Song Zhongping as saying.

Despite the rhetoric, most experts say neither China nor the US wants a war in Taiwan – at least not in the near term.

“China is seeking to warn the US and Taiwan against taking additional measures that challenge Chinese redlines,” said Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia Program at the German Marshall Fund of the US.

“They are demonstrating their military capabilities to impose a blockade on Taiwan. But [President] Xi Jinping does not want a war with the United States. He has not made a decision to invade Taiwan,” she told Al Jazeera.

But even if China – which has the world’s largest fighting force and has rapidly modernised its military – wanted to take Taiwan by force, such a move carries significant risks.

Its forces would have to cross the Taiwan Strait with more than 100,000 soldiers, according to observers, during which they would face aerial and naval bombardment. If the soldiers did manage to make it to Taiwan’s shores, they would find it difficult to make a landing as its rugged coastline offers few suitable beaches for unloading armoured personnel, carriers, tanks and artillery.




There is also the risk an invasion could provoke a larger conflict between China and the US.

Although the US does not officially recognise Taiwan as a separate state, under the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, it is obliged to help the island defend itself. In May, US President Joe Biden suggested Washington would defend Taiwan with force in the event of a Chinese incursion.

While Biden has couched US support for Taiwan in the language of values – defence of democracy against autocracy – many experts note the island is also strategically important to Washington.

“This is because it is part of the first island chain of defence against aggression by the People’s Liberation Army,” said June Teufel Dreyer, professor of political science at the University of Miami.

“Chinese military strategists have referred to Taiwan as the buckle in the chain that keeps the PLA bottled up behind the first island chain, and taking over Taiwan would mean getting access to a very important port, Kaohsiung, and an entryway to the Blue Pacific and Guam, which is a US territory and is half-way to Hawaii,” she told Al Jazeera.


What is China’s problem with Pelosi’s visit?


Although the People’s Republic of China (PRC), as the government in Beijing is formally known, has never ruled Taiwan, it considers the island of 23 million people part of its own territory.

The Chinese government categorically objects to all official contacts between Taipei and Washington, and has characterised the visit by Pelosi, a longtime China hawk, as a provocation and a violation of its sovereignty.

Her visit also comes at a sensitive time, just weeks before Communist Party leaders are set to meet for the 20th Congress, with President Xi Jinping believed to be setting the groundwork to secure a norm-busting third term. Xi, in a recent phone call with Biden, warned the US leader against “playing with fire over Taiwan” and stressed he firmly opposed Taiwanese independence and interference by external forces.

Analysts say the trip is likely to further damage already strained relations between Beijing and Washington and increase cross-Strait tensions.

“This was a really bad move on the part of Pelosi, because she came at a time when bilateral relations between US and China are at the lowest point. And [at a time when] the world is facing a pandemic, the Ukraine crisis and an energy crisis, among many others,” said Henry Huiyao Wang, president of the Center for China and Globalization in Beijing.

“This damages not only the US-China relations, but brings a serious crisis to cross-strait relations,” he told Al Jazeera. “I think there is going to be a lot of consequences in the future.”



Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Asthma Charity Warns of Major Gaps in Childhood Diagnostic Testing Across England
TUC Chief Paul Nowak Appointed to Bank of England Court
Bristol Opens £35 Million Deep-Tech Innovation Hub at Temple Quarter
Oxfordshire Village Votes Symbolically to Leave UK Over Asylum Housing Plan
Andy Burnham Deepens UK Defense and AI Cooperation With NATO and Canada
UK Government Announces Neonatal Safety Reforms After Thirlwall Inquiry
Bank of England Weighs Rate Decision as UK Inflation Rises to 3.1%
UK Health Unions Warn of Staffing Pressures as Public and Private Pay Growth Diverges
Rockstar Games Faces Tribunal Claims From 23 Former Grand Theft Auto VI Developers
UK Treasury Faces Tighter Budget Constraints as Borrowing Costs and Pension Spending Rise
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Sets Out Ten-Year Plan for Greater Public Oversight of Utilities
UK Economy Grows 0.4% in July as Services and Technology Activity Strengthen
Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland Leaders Coordinate Push for UK Constitutional Change
Police Tighten Public-Order Measures After Anti-Immigration Protests in Dover and Portsmouth
UK Ministers Pressed for Answers After US Diplomat Accused of Child Abuse Images Leaves Britain
Jaguar Land Rover Pursues NATO Defense Contracts for Defender Vehicles
British Service Member Dies in Road Accident While Deployed in Ukraine
George Osborne Calls for Britain to Rejoin EU Customs Union
Anthropic Chief Dario Amodei Urges Faster UK Action on Advanced AI Risks
UK State Pension Set for 3.9% Rise Under Triple Lock
UK Labour Market Cools as Payrolled Employment Continues to Decline
Reform UK’s £72 Million in Donations Faces Scrutiny Under Proposed Retrospective Funding Rules
UK Doctors Warn Expanded Pharmacy First Scheme Could Put Patients at Risk
British Airlines Cut Short-Haul Capacity as Jet Fuel Costs Rise
UK News Publishers Forecast 40% Search Traffic Drop as AI Overviews Expand
Axel Springer Wins Approval for £575 Million Daily Telegraph Acquisition
London Mayor Sadiq Khan Opposes Heathrow Third Runway Over Climate Targets
Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland Leaders Hold Summit Seeking Greater Autonomy
UK Energy Price Cap Set to Rise to £1,723 in October
UK Treasury Warns Middle East Conflict Is Threatening Economic Growth
Labour Moves to Retrospectively Cap Overseas Political Donations After Reform UK Funding Surge
HMRC Warns Nearly Seven Million Adults Are Unclear About State Pension Entitlements
UK Parliament Passes Sovereign Grant Reform Before Conference Recess
British Rail Passengers Gain Automatic Right to Switch Operators During Disruptions
Burnham Hosts Downing Street Business Summit as UK Fiscal Pressure Builds
Labour Government Moves to Challenge £72 Million in Reform UK Crypto Donations
UK Advertising Industry Warns Wider Junk Food Rules Could Put £1 Billion in Media Spending at Risk
Cornwall Opens Devolution Talks With UK Government Over Transport and Local Services
UK Parliament Considers Sovereign Grant Reform Setting Royal Funding at £99.9 Million
Trades Union Congress Calls for Income-Based Energy Tariff Funded by Higher Bank Levy
UK Prime Minister Rejects Second Scottish Independence Referendum
House of Lords Begins Scrutiny of Bill to Lower UK Voting Age to 16
Anthropic Says Claude Was Exploited in Weapons-Related and State-Linked Cyber Activity
Institute of Directors Urges UK Government to Avoid Business Tax Increases in Autumn Budget
Rising Gilt Yields Cut UK Fiscal Headroom to About £13 Billion Ahead of Budget
UK Economy Grows 0.4% in July as Services and Technology Activity Strengthen
UK Government Promises Clearer Student Loan Guidance After Repayment Backlash
Charities Warn Unpaid Carers May Die Before Receiving Government Compensation
Dover Unrest Prompts Review of UK Counter-Extremism Strategy
Celtic Summit Leaders Reassert Right to Pursue Independence From UK
×