London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Saturday, Jan 24, 2026

Is China preparing to invade Taiwan? Key questions answered

Is China preparing to invade Taiwan? Key questions answered

Tensions are rising in the Taiwan Strait after China launched its biggest-ever military drills following US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei.

China has launched its biggest-ever military drills around Taiwan, firing ballistic missiles and deploying dozens of fighter jets and warships, in response to a visit to the self-ruled island by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Beijing called Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan, which it views as Chinese territory, a “dangerous, reckless and irresponsible provocation” by the United States against China. It said the ongoing military drills, which began on Thursday and will last until Sunday, are aimed at demonstrating its resolve to uphold its “sovereignty and territorial integrity”.

The exercises have ratcheted up tensions in the region, with Japan saying several missiles fired by Chinese forces landed in its exclusive economic zone (EEZ), while the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) warned the situation risked “miscalculation, serious confrontation, open conflicts and unpredictable consequences among major powers”.

Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen, meanwhile, issued a statement late on Thursday calling on the international community to help end China’s “unilateral and irrational military actions”. She also said Taiwan would not provoke conflicts, but would firmly defend its sovereignty and national security.

China deployed dozens of planes and fired live missiles near Taiwan in a show of force in the Taiwan Strait on Thursday


As frictions escalate, here are answers to three key questions:

How worrying are China’s military drills?


Chinese state media say the live-fire sea and air exercises are taking place in six zones around Taiwan, which lies 180km (112 miles) off China’s coast. They involve more than 100 planes, including fighter jets and bombers and 10 warships, according to CCTV.

Taiwan has condemned the exercises, saying some infringe on Taiwan’s territorial waters and amount to a sea and air blockade of the island.

On the first day of the drills, Chinese rocket forces fired several ballistic missiles into the waters around Taiwan, a first since 1996. Taiwan’s defence ministry said 11 missiles had been fired and identified them as Dongfeng ballistic weapons.

Japan said at least five missiles landed in its EEZ, a zone that stretches 200 nautical miles (370km or 230 miles) from the outer limits of its territorial seas, and has lodged strong diplomatic protests over the move.

Authorities in Taiwan also urged ships and planes travelling in the area to find alternative routes, and on Thursday cancelled dozens of flights at the Taoyuan Airport in the capital, Taipei. South Korea’s Korean Air and Asiana Airlines also suspended services to Taiwan for one or two days because of the exercises, according to local media.

The six areas around Taiwan where China is holding live-fire military exercises until Sunday


Could China invade Taiwan? And how difficult would that be?


China’s unprecedented drills have revived questions about whether Beijing intends to launch an invasion of Taiwan, especially with the state-run tabloid Global Times running commentary from experts describing the exercises as a rehearsal for “reunification”.

“In the event of a future military conflict, it is likely that the operational plans currently being rehearsed will be directly translated into combat operations,” it quoted Chinese mainland military analyst Song Zhongping as saying.

Despite the rhetoric, most experts say neither China nor the US wants a war in Taiwan – at least not in the near term.

“China is seeking to warn the US and Taiwan against taking additional measures that challenge Chinese redlines,” said Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia Program at the German Marshall Fund of the US.

“They are demonstrating their military capabilities to impose a blockade on Taiwan. But [President] Xi Jinping does not want a war with the United States. He has not made a decision to invade Taiwan,” she told Al Jazeera.

But even if China – which has the world’s largest fighting force and has rapidly modernised its military – wanted to take Taiwan by force, such a move carries significant risks.

Its forces would have to cross the Taiwan Strait with more than 100,000 soldiers, according to observers, during which they would face aerial and naval bombardment. If the soldiers did manage to make it to Taiwan’s shores, they would find it difficult to make a landing as its rugged coastline offers few suitable beaches for unloading armoured personnel, carriers, tanks and artillery.




There is also the risk an invasion could provoke a larger conflict between China and the US.

Although the US does not officially recognise Taiwan as a separate state, under the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, it is obliged to help the island defend itself. In May, US President Joe Biden suggested Washington would defend Taiwan with force in the event of a Chinese incursion.

While Biden has couched US support for Taiwan in the language of values – defence of democracy against autocracy – many experts note the island is also strategically important to Washington.

“This is because it is part of the first island chain of defence against aggression by the People’s Liberation Army,” said June Teufel Dreyer, professor of political science at the University of Miami.

“Chinese military strategists have referred to Taiwan as the buckle in the chain that keeps the PLA bottled up behind the first island chain, and taking over Taiwan would mean getting access to a very important port, Kaohsiung, and an entryway to the Blue Pacific and Guam, which is a US territory and is half-way to Hawaii,” she told Al Jazeera.


What is China’s problem with Pelosi’s visit?


Although the People’s Republic of China (PRC), as the government in Beijing is formally known, has never ruled Taiwan, it considers the island of 23 million people part of its own territory.

The Chinese government categorically objects to all official contacts between Taipei and Washington, and has characterised the visit by Pelosi, a longtime China hawk, as a provocation and a violation of its sovereignty.

Her visit also comes at a sensitive time, just weeks before Communist Party leaders are set to meet for the 20th Congress, with President Xi Jinping believed to be setting the groundwork to secure a norm-busting third term. Xi, in a recent phone call with Biden, warned the US leader against “playing with fire over Taiwan” and stressed he firmly opposed Taiwanese independence and interference by external forces.

Analysts say the trip is likely to further damage already strained relations between Beijing and Washington and increase cross-Strait tensions.

“This was a really bad move on the part of Pelosi, because she came at a time when bilateral relations between US and China are at the lowest point. And [at a time when] the world is facing a pandemic, the Ukraine crisis and an energy crisis, among many others,” said Henry Huiyao Wang, president of the Center for China and Globalization in Beijing.

“This damages not only the US-China relations, but brings a serious crisis to cross-strait relations,” he told Al Jazeera. “I think there is going to be a lot of consequences in the future.”



Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Starmer Breaks Diplomatic Restraint With Firm Rebuke of Trump, Seizing Chance to Advocate for Europe
UK Finance Minister Reeves to Join Starmer on China Visit to Bolster Trade and Economic Ties
Prince Harry Says Sacrifices of NATO Forces in Afghanistan Deserve ‘Respect’ After Trump Remarks
Barron Trump Emerges as Key Remote Witness in UK Assault and Rape Trial
Nigel Farage Attended Davos 2026 Using HP Trust Delegate Pass Linked to Sasan Ghandehari
Gold Jumps More Than 8% in a Week as the Dollar Slides Amid Greenland Tariff Dispute
BlackRock Executive Rick Rieder Emerges as Leading Contender to Succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair
Boston Dynamics Atlas humanoid robot and LG CLOiD home robot: the platform lock-in fight to control Physical AI
United States under President Donald Trump completes withdrawal from the World Health Organization: health sovereignty versus global outbreak early-warning access
FBI and U.S. prosecutors vs Ryan Wedding’s transnational cocaine-smuggling network: the fight over witness-killing and cross-border enforcement
Trump Administration’s Iran Military Buildup and Sanctions Campaign Puts Deterrence Credibility on the Line
Apple and OpenAI Chase Screenless AI Wearables as the Post-iPhone Interface Battle Heats Up
Tech Brief: AI Compute, Chips, and Platform Power Moves Driving Today’s Market Narrative
NATO’s Stress Test Under Trump: Alliance Credibility, Burden-Sharing, and the Fight Over Strategic Territory
OpenAI’s Money Problem: Explosive Growth, Even Faster Costs, and a Race to Stay Ahead
Trump Reverses Course and Criticises UK-Mauritius Chagos Islands Agreement
Elizabeth Hurley Tells UK Court of ‘Brutal’ Invasion of Privacy in Phone Hacking Case
UK Bond Yields Climb as Report Fuels Speculation Over Andy Burnham’s Return to Parliament
America’s Venezuela Oil Grip Meets China’s Demand: Market Power, Legal Shockwaves, and the New Rules of Energy Leverage
TikTok’s U.S. Escape Plan: National Security Firewall or Political Theater With a Price Tag?
Trump’s Board of Peace: Breakthrough Diplomacy or a Hostile Takeover of Global Order?
Trump’s Board of Peace: Breakthrough Diplomacy or a Hostile Takeover of Global Order?
The Greenland Gambit: Economic Genius or Political Farce?
The Greenland Gambit: Economic Genius or Political Farce?
The Greenland Gambit: Economic Genius or Political Farce?
Will AI Finally Make Blue-Collar Workers Rich—or Is This Just Elite Tech Spin?
Prince William to Make Official Visit to Saudi Arabia in February
Prince Harry Breaks Down in London Court, Says UK Tabloids Have Made Meghan Markle’s Life ‘Absolute Misery’
Malin + Goetz UK Business Enters Administration, All Stores Close
EU and UK Reject Trump’s Greenland-Linked Tariff Threats and Pledge Unified Response
UK Deepfake Crackdown Puts Intense Pressure on Musk’s Grok AI After Surge in Non-Consensual Explicit Images
Prince Harry Becomes Emotional in London Court, Invokes Memory of Princess Diana in Testimony Against UK Tabloids
UK Inflation Rises Unexpectedly but Interest Rate Cuts Still Seen as Likely
AI vs Work: The Battle Over Who Controls the Future of Labor
Buying an Ally’s Territory: Strategic Genius or Geopolitical Breakdown?
AI Everywhere: Power, Money, War, and the Race to Control the Future
Trump vs the World Order: Disruption Genius or Global Arsonist?
Trump vs the World Order: Disruption Genius or Global Arsonist?
Trump vs the World Order: Disruption Genius or Global Arsonist?
Trump vs the World Order: Disruption Genius or Global Arsonist?
Arctic Power Grab: Security Chessboard or Climate Crime Scene?
Starmer Steps Back from Trump’s ‘Board of Peace’ Amid Strained US–UK Relations
Prince Harry’s Lawyer Tells UK Court Daily Mail Was Complicit in Unlawful Privacy Invasions
UK Government Approves China’s ‘Mega Embassy’ in London Amid Debate Over Security and Diplomacy
Trump Cites UK’s Chagos Islands Sovereignty Shift as Justification for Pursuing Greenland Acquisition
UK Government Weighs Australia-Style Social Media Ban for Under-Sixteens Amid Rising Concern Over Online Harm
Trump Aides Say U.S. Has Discussed Offering Asylum to British Jews Amid Growing Antisemitism Concerns
UK Seeks Diplomatic De-escalation with Trump Over Greenland Tariff Threat
Prince Harry Returns to London as High Court Trial Begins Over Alleged Illegal Tabloid Snooping
High-Speed Train Collision in Southern Spain Kills at Least Twenty-One and Injures Scores
×