London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Dec 25, 2025

Inflation: Price rises see record jump as food costs soar in August

Inflation: Price rises see record jump as food costs soar in August

Price rises have seen the biggest jump since records began in 1997 as the economy continued to reopen.

Official figures show that the increase in the cost of living, as measured by the Consumer Prices Index, hit 3.2% in the year to August.

Higher prices in restaurants and for recreation and food were behind the spike, up from 2% the previous month.

The cost of living rose less rapidly in July because of lower clothing and footwear prices.

However, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) urged caution in reading too much into August's price increases, which it described as "temporary".

Eating and drinking out cost more last month in comparison with August last year, when the Eat Out to Help Out Scheme was running and diners got a state-backed 50% discount on meals up to £10 each on Mondays, Tuesdays and Wednesdays.

At the same time, business owners in the hospitality and tourism sectors received a VAT discount, designed to help some of the industries worst hit by the pandemic.


Jonathan Athow, deputy national statistician at the ONS, said: "August saw the largest rise in annual inflation month-on-month since the series was introduced almost a quarter of a century ago.

"However, much of this is likely to be temporary, as last year, restaurant and cafe prices fell substantially due to the Eat Out to Help Out scheme, while this year, prices rose."

In August this year, transport costs also increased.

Average petrol prices stood at 134.6 pence a litre, compared with 113.1 pence a litre a year earlier, when travel was reduced under lockdown restrictions.

Used car prices were also partly to blame for price rises - they increased by 4.9% in just one month. Since April, they have gone up by more than 18% amid a shortage of new models.

What is inflation?


Simply put, inflation is the rate at which prices are rising - if the cost of a £1 jar of jam rises by 5p, then jam inflation is 5%.

It applies to services too, like having your nails done or getting your car valeted.

You may not notice low levels of inflation from month to month, but in the long term, these price rises can have a big impact on how much you can buy with your money.

Ruth Gregory, senior UK economist at Capital Economics, told BBC Radio 4's Today Programme that price rises seen in August were "almost unavoidable" because of the discounts available in 2020.

"Inflation, which is a year-on-year comparison, was always going to look strong compared to last year," she said.

"Some of that rise reflected genuine factors too. In particular, we are now seeing the effects of higher global shipping costs and shortages of staff driving up food price inflation."

She also expects, however, that the cost of living could continue to increase rapidly, with inflation exceeding 4% by November.

Diners bought more than 160 million meals under the Eat Out to Help Out scheme last August

The latest official figures will add to the debate about whether interest rates need to go up to curb consumer spending and moderate prices.

Inflation now exceeds the Bank of England's 2% target, aimed at keeping cost increases steady.

But Capital Economics points out that inflation is likely to fall back almost as sharply next year and that the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee is not expected to raise interest rates until 2023.

The central bank's deputy governor, Ben Broadbent, insisted in July that it would not stop its efforts to boost the economy, despite the forecast of higher costs.

"While we know [inflation] is going to go further over the next few months, I'm not convinced that the current inflation in retail goods prices should in and of itself mean higher inflation 18 to 24 months ahead, the horizon more relevant for monetary policy," he said.

Most of the inflation in goods prices was down to oil price rises and supply chain issues, he said, which was likely to "fall away" in the early part of 2022.

But given that Wednesday's latest figures breach the Bank's target, it must now write to Chancellor Rishi Sunak to explain what it will do to ensure that price prices are steady in future.

'Businesses need to ride the storm'

James Lyon Shaw, who owns the Greene Oak Pub in Windsor, Berkshire, told the BBC the rise in inflation had to be taken in context and that businesses, including his own, needed to "ride the storm".

He is paying his employees 10 to 20% more an hour compared to last year due to the wider workforce shortages.

He said increases in food prices depended on where restaurants and pubs source their food, with rises in haulage and logistics costs hitting profit margins.

"We just have got to get through, you've got to be pragmatic, get on and adapt your business."

He questioned if people had enjoyed access to "cheap food" for too long and whether there needed to be a shift in attitudes to pay for more sustainably produced products.

Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, added: "Higher inflation will inevitably raise questions for the Bank of England on the timing of tightening monetary policy and interest rate hikes to contain inflationary risks further down the line."

She added: "However, any tightening now risks scuppering the recovery before it has a chance to take hold, so a delay until the middle of next year is likely."

UK businesses are reporting difficulties in sourcing goods and recruiting staff because of disruption caused by the pandemic and problems such as HGV driver shortages, exacerbated by Brexit.

According to a survey of 2,000 people by Retail Economics, more than half of consumers are concerned about rising costs as a result.

The market research firm said on Wednesday that worries about the cost of living had reached their highest point in more than five years.

'Sputtering restart to the economy'

A record monthly spike in inflation, up to levels not seen for more than eight years, reflects a spluttering restart to the economy. Demand has rebounded, but the supply of goods and labour has not.

In August, there were one-off factors from the discounts and support measures last year.

As inflation is above 3%, the Bank of England governor has to write a letter to the chancellor explaining why. Stripping out the impact of Eat Out to Help Out last year would have meant this was not necessary.

This inflation number will go higher still in the coming months because of rising home energy bills. Alongside the rise in petrol prices and frankly incredible increase in used car prices, these inflationary pressures are becoming very visible.

The maths suggests that inflation could top 4% and then fall just as sharply, as long as there are no further economic shocks. Public perceptions matter significantly in regard to wage settlements for next year.

While the number is high and rising, this is still consistent with a "transitory" post-lockdown reopening inflation spike, predicted by the central bank.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Mortgage Rates Edge Lower as Bank of England Base Rate Cut Filters Through Lending Market
U.S. Supermarket Gives Customers Free Groceries for Christmas After Computer Glitch
Air India ‘Finds’ a Plane That Vanished 13 Years Ago
Caviar and Foie Gras? China Is Becoming a Luxury Food Powerhouse
Hong Kong Climbs to Second Globally in 2025 Tourism Rankings Behind Bangkok
From Sunniest Year on Record to Terror Plots and Sports Triumphs: The UK’s Defining Stories of 2025
Greta Thunberg Released on Bail After Arrest at London Pro-Palestinian Demonstration
Banksy Unveils New Winter Mural in London Amid Festive Season Excitement
UK Households Face Rising Financial Strain as Tax Increases Bite and Growth Loses Momentum
UK Government Approves Universal Studios Theme Park in Bedford Poised to Rival Disneyland Paris
UK Gambling Shares Slide as Traders Respond to Steep Tax Rises and Sector Uncertainty
Starmer and Trump Coordinate on Ukraine Peace Efforts in Latest Diplomatic Call
The Pilot Barricaded Himself in the Cockpit and Refused to Take Off: "We Are Not Leaving Until I Receive My Salary"
UK Fashion Label LK Bennett Pursues Accelerated Sale Amid Financial Struggles
U.S. Government Warns UK Over Free Speech in Pro-Life Campaigner Prosecution
Newly Released Files Shed Light on Jeffrey Epstein’s Extensive Links to the United Kingdom
Prince William and Prince George Volunteer Together at UK Homelessness Charity
UK Police Arrest Protesters Chanting ‘Globalise the Intifada’ as Authorities Recalibrate Free Speech Enforcement
Scambodia: The World Owes Thailand’s Military a Profound Debt of Gratitude
Women in Partial Nudity — and Bill Clinton in a Dress and Heels: The Images Revealed in the “Epstein Files”
US Envoy Witkoff to Convene Security Advisers from Ukraine, UK, France and Germany in Miami as Peace Efforts Intensify
UK Retailers Report Sharp Pre-Christmas Sales Decline and Weak Outlook, CBI Survey Shows
UK Government Rejects Use of Frozen Russian Assets to Fund Aid for Ukraine
UK Financial Conduct Authority Opens Formal Investigation into WH Smith After Accounting Errors
UK Issues Final Ultimatum to Roman Abramovich Over £2.5bn Chelsea Sale Funds for Ukraine
Rare Pink Fog Sweeps Across Parts of the UK as Met Office Warns of Poor Visibility
UK Police Pledge ‘More Assertive’ Enforcement to Tackle Antisemitism at Protests
UK Police Warn They Will Arrest Protesters Chanting ‘Globalise the Intifada’
Trump Files $10 Billion Defamation Lawsuit Against BBC as Broadcaster Pledges Legal Defence
UK Says U.S. Tech Deal Talks Still Active Despite Washington’s Suspension of Prosperity Pact
UK Mortgage Rules to Give Greater Flexibility to Borrowers With Irregular Incomes
UK Treasury Moves to Position Britain as Leading Global Hub for Crypto Firms
U.S. Freezes £31 Billion Tech Prosperity Deal With Britain Amid Trade Dispute
Prince Harry and Meghan’s Potential UK Return Gains New Momentum Amid Security Review and Royal Dialogue
Zelensky Opens High-Stakes Peace Talks in Berlin with Trump Envoy and European Leaders
Historical Reflections on Press Freedom Emerge Amid Debate Over Trump’s Media Policies
UK Boosts Protection for Jewish Communities After Sydney Hanukkah Attack
UK Government Declines to Comment After ICC Prosecutor Alleges Britain Threatened to Defund Court Over Israel Arrest Warrant
Apple Shutters All Retail Stores in the United Kingdom Under New National COVID-19 Lockdown
US–UK Technology Partnership Strains as Key Trade Disagreements Emerge
UK Police Confirm No Further Action Over Allegation That Andrew Asked Bodyguard to Investigate Virginia Giuffre
Giuffre Family Expresses Deep Disappointment as UK Police Decline New Inquiry Into Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor Claims
Transatlantic Trade Ambitions Hit a Snag as UK–US Deal Faces Emerging Challenges
Ex-ICC Prosecutor Alleges UK Threatened to Withdraw Funding Over Netanyahu Arrest Warrant Bid
UK Disciplinary Tribunal Clears Carter-Ruck Lawyer of Misconduct in OneCoin Case
‘Pink Ladies’ Emerge as Prominent Face of UK Anti-Immigration Protests
Nigel Farage Says Reform UK Has Become Britain’s Largest Party as Labour Membership Falls Sharply
Google DeepMind and UK Government Launch First Automated AI Lab to Accelerate Scientific Discovery
UK Economy Falters Ahead of Budget as Growth Contracts and Confidence Wanes
Australia Approves Increased Foreign Stake in Strategic Defence Shipbuilder
×