London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Dec 04, 2025

Inflation is soaring. Should the Fed unleash 'shock and awe'?

Inflation is soaring. Should the Fed unleash 'shock and awe'?

The Bank of England has already started to raise interest rates to fight inflation. The Federal Reserve is likely to follow soon. But how aggressive will America's central bank be?

Investors will be looking for clues when chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference after the Fed's meeting on Wednesday. Investors are not expecting the Fed to make a move this week. That's more likely to happen in March.

It would be the first time the Fed has changed interest rates since slashing them to near zero at the beginning of the 1Covid1-19 pandemic in March 2020. The central bank hasn't hiked rates since December 2018.

Higher interest rates make it more expensive for most people and companies to borrow money. That, in turn, leads to a slowdown in consumer and business spending, which usually puts a lid on rising prices.

Most on Wall Street think the Fed will want to take a slow and steady approach to combating higher consumer prices. Raising rates too sharply could hurt the economy and lead to further turmoil in a suddenly skittish stock market.

Chicago Mercantile Exchange data shows that the market is pricing in an 88% chance of a quarter-point interest rate increase at the Fed's March 16 meeting.

But a small faction of traders believe the Fed will raise rates more aggressively. Investors are pricing in a 5% probability that the Fed will boost rates by a half-point. (The remaining 7% believe the Fed will sit tight.)

Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman tweeted earlier this month that a half-point hike by the Fed could help "restore its credibility" as an inflation fighter since it would be a "surprise move to shock and awe the market, which would demonstrate its resolve on inflation."

"The Fed is losing the inflation battle and is behind where it needs to be, with painful economic consequences for the most vulnerable," Ackman added.

Even some bankers are starting to think that the Fed could start with a big rate hike.

Bruce Van Saun, CEO of New England-based regional bank Citizens Financial Group (CFG), told CNN Business that he's hearing more chatter about a half-point hike.

Van Saun noted that even though that's not really priced into the market just yet, the Fed may want to act more quickly to tamp down further inflation pressures.

Still, most market participants think that the Fed can show that it is serious about fighting inflation with smaller rate hikes.

"We think it is unlikely the central bank will open the possibility of a [half-point] hike in March. We would regard more frequent hikes as the most likely risk," said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist with BNP Paribas, in a report.

That's exactly what JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon expects to happen. Dimon told analysts on the bank's earnings conference call earlier this month that there is "a pretty good chance there will be more than four" rate hikes this year — and potentially as many as six or seven.

"This whole notion that somehow it's going to be sweet and gentle and no one is ever going to be surprised ... I think it's a mistake," Dimon said about the current expectations of slow, gradual and telegraphed rate hikes.

Get ready for tech earnings


Stocks have been volatile during the first part of earnings season. JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs (GS) and other big banks haven't lived up to the considerable expectations that investors had for their results.

But now it's time for the tech sector, which has been leading the market for the past few years, to take center stage.

Investors will get a read on demand for cloud computing from the likes of IBM (IBM) and Microsoft (MSFT).

Chip leader Intel (INTC), which has rallied this year despite lingering concerns about semiconductor supply chain issues, is also on tap to report earnings. So are Elon Musk's Tesla (TSLA) and the world's most value company, iPhone maker Apple (AAPL).

Expectations are high. Wall Street still adores tech stocks, even though the sector and the overall Nasdaq recently fell into correction mode, down more than 10% from record highs.

According to data from FactSet Research, 62% of the ratings by Wall Street analysts of tech and communications firms in the S&P 500 are buy ratings.

Up next


Monday: Earnings from Philips (PHG), Halliburton (HAL) and IBM

Tuesday: US consumer confidence; Earnings from Ericsson (ERIC), Verizon (VZ), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), GE (GE), Microsoft, Capital One (COF) and Texas Instruments (TXN)

Wednesday: US new home sales: Fed decision; Earnings from CNN parent company AT&T (T), Anthem (ANTM), Boeing (BA), Intel and Tesla

Thursday: US GDP for Q4; Earnings from Comcast (CMCSA), McDonald's (MCD), Mastercard (MA), Apple, Mondelez (MDLZ) and Visa (V)

Friday: US personal income and spending; Earnings from Chevron (CVX), Charter Communications (CHTR), Caterpillar (CAT) and Colgate-Palmolive (CL)

Comments

Oh ya 4 year ago
In short the Fed can not raise interest rates as the US is so far in debt that they could not afford a rate hike plus it would crash the phony stock market. Yet if the Fed does not raise the interest rate inflation will kill the population and economy. Rock and a hard place is what they have got themselves into by low interest rates and Venezuela style money printing. So folks need to get ready for hyper inflation or a recession

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
India backs down on plan to mandate government “Sanchar Saathi” app on all smartphones
King Charles Welcomes German President Steinmeier to UK in First State Visit by Berlin in 27 Years
UK Plans Major Cutback to Jury Trials as Crown Court Backlog Nears 80,000
UK Government to Significantly Limit Jury Trials in England and Wales
U.S. and U.K. Seal Drug-Pricing Deal: Britain Agrees to Pay More, U.S. Lifts Tariffs
UK Postpones Decision Yet Again on China’s Proposed Mega-Embassy in London
Head of UK Budget Watchdog Resigns After Premature Leak of Reeves’ Budget Report
Car-sharing giant Zipcar to exit UK market by end of 2025
Reports of Widespread Drone Deployment Raise Privacy and Security Questions in the UK
UK Signals Security Concerns Over China While Pursuing Stronger Trade Links
Google warns of AI “irrationality” just as Gemini 3 launch rattles markets
Top Consultancies Freeze Starting Salaries as AI Threatens ‘Pyramid’ Model
Macron Says Washington Pressuring EU to Delay Enforcement of Digital-Regulation Probes Against Meta, TikTok and X
UK’s DragonFire Laser Downs High-Speed Drones as £316m Deal Speeds Naval Deployment
UK Chancellor Rejects Claims She Misled Public on Fiscal Outlook Ahead of Budget
Starmer Defends Autumn Budget as Finance Chief Faces Accusations of Misleading Public Finances
EU Firms Struggle with 3,000-Hour Paperwork Load — While Automakers Fear De Facto 2030 Petrol Car Ban
White House launches ‘Hall of Shame’ site to publicly condemn media outlets for alleged bias
UK Budget’s New EV Mileage Tax Undercuts Case for Plug-In Hybrids
UK Government Launches National Inquiry into ‘Grooming Gangs’ After US Warning and Rising Public Outcry
Taylor Swift Extends U.K. Chart Reign as ‘The Fate of Ophelia’ Hits Six Weeks at No. 1
250 Still Missing in the Massive Fire, 94 Killed. One Day After the Disaster: Survivor Rescued on the 16th Floor
Trump: National Guard Soldier Who Was Shot in Washington Has Died; Second Soldier Fighting for His Life
UK Chancellor Reeves Defends Tax Rises as Essential to Reduce Child Poverty and Stabilise Public Finances
No Evidence Found for Claim That UK Schools Are Shifting to Teaching American English
European Powers Urge Israel to Halt West Bank Settler Violence Amid Surge in Attacks
"I Would Have Given Her a Kidney": She Lent Bezos’s Ex-Wife $1,000 — and Received Millions in Return
European States Approve First-ever Military-Grade Surveillance Network via ESA
UK to Slash Key Pension Tax Perk, Targeting High Earners Under New Budget
UK Government Announces £150 Annual Cut to Household Energy Bills Through Levy Reforms
UK Court Hears Challenge to Ban on Palestine Action as Critics Decry Heavy-Handed Measures
Investors Rush Into UK Gilts and Sterling After Budget Eases Fiscal Concerns
UK to Raise Online Betting Taxes by £1.1 Billion Under New Budget — Firms Warn of Fallout
Lamine Yamal? The ‘Heir to Messi’ Lost to Barcelona — and the Kingdom Is in a Frenzy
Warner Music Group Drops Suit Against Suno, Launches Licensed AI-Music Deal
HP to Cut up to 6,000 Jobs Globally as It Ramps Up AI Integration
MediaWorld Sold iPad Air for €15 — Then Asked Customers to Return Them or Pay More
UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer Promises ‘Full-Time’ Education for All Children as School Attendance Slips
UK Extends Sugar Tax to Sweetened Milkshakes and Lattes in 2028 Health Push
UK Government Backs £49 Billion Plan for Heathrow Third Runway and Expansion
UK Gambling Firms Report £1bn Surge in Annual Profits as Pressure Mounts for Higher Betting Taxes
UK Shares Advance Ahead of Budget as Financials and Consumer Staples Lead Gains
Domino’s UK CEO Andrew Rennie Steps Down Amid Strategic Reset
UK Economy Stalls as Reeves Faces First Budget Test
UK Economy’s Weak Start Adds Pressure on Prime Minister Starmer
UK Government Acknowledges Billionaire Exodus Amid Tax Rise Concerns
UK Budget 2025: Markets Brace as Chancellor Faces Fiscal Tightrope
UK Unveils Strategic Plan to Secure Critical Mineral Supply Chains
UK Taskforce Calls for Radical Reset of Nuclear Regulation to Cut Costs and Accelerate Build
UK Government Launches Consultation on Major Overhaul of Settlement Rules
×