London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Tuesday, Jun 02, 2026

Inflation is setting the Government against the workers with toxic results

Inflation is setting the Government against the workers with toxic results

In October, 417,000 working days were “lost” in the UK thanks to strike action, the highest such loss for around 11 years. Dramatic? Not really. It’s a mere blip relative to periods of industrial unrest in the 20th century. In September 1978, the worst point in the original “winter of discontent”, almost 12 million working days were lost. During the 1926 General Strike, 162 million working days were lost.
Admittedly, things have got progressively worse through November and December. We’ll have to wait until the statisticians collect the relevant data for a clearer picture to emerge (assuming, that is, that they haven’t gone on strike too). Through December, however, we know that rail workers, nurses, ambulance workers, bus drivers, baggage handlers, the border force, driving examiners, traffic officers, teachers and Royal Mail workers have all, on occasion, withdrawn their labour. We’re on the brink of facing the worst collective industrial action since at least the late-Eighties.

How have we got to this point? Let me take you back to earlier in the year, when Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, suggested that wage moderation was desirable. In his words, “we do need to see a moderation of wage rises, now that’s painful. But we do need to see that in order to get through this problem more quickly”. In response, Sharon Graham, the General Secretary of Unite, said “workers didn’t cause inflation or the energy crisis so why should they pay for it?”

This little spat captures beautifully the fundamental problem with inflation-inspired industrial disputes. The language used tends to focus on ‘fairness’. But knowing what’s fair and what isn’t is not straightforward when inflation is both high and volatile. That’s why central banks are tasked with keeping inflation low and stable. Doing so allows all of us to use a reliable monetary yardstick. Today, however, that yardstick has gone. Inflation was rising swiftly even before Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine. Since the invasion, inflation has reached levels not seen in many a decade.

Ms Graham was, of course, absolutely right to say that “workers didn’t cause…the energy crisis”. Yet that doesn’t alter the fact that the nation as a whole is worse off thanks to higher energy prices. We have suffered a negative terms of trade shock: we are paying more for our imports of gas than we were previously and, as such, we are worse off than we once were. Someone will have to take the hit.

To date, workers in the private sector have fared better than their public sector counterparts: their wages are currently rising around three times faster. That’s partly because unemployment is low and vacancies are high. Companies hoping to stay in business have no choice other than to pay more to attract workers. The Government doesn’t have to worry quite so much in the near term about such calculations. Yet the more the gap between private sector and public sector pay widens, the greater is the risk that some of our essential public services begin to implode.

No government can accept such an outcome, one reason why striking public sector workers hope to secure better deals than they have, so far, been offered. Yet should public wages rise faster than the Government has pencilled in, Bailey could be forced to admit that the UK’s inflationary problem is likely to persist for longer than the Bank is currently projecting. That, in turn, is likely to mean higher interest rates for longer. The Government knows this, of course, one reason why it is keen to avoid a series of what it regards as “excessive” increases in public sector pay.

Underneath all this is a problem that really hasn’t seen the light of day since the Seventies. We have tended to regard inflation in recent years as merely a technical challenge, one that can easily be solved through the occasional tweak in interest rates. That, however, is incorrect. Inflation can quickly become a political problem because it either creates new, or amplifies existing, injustices. Once those injustices become a part of the political narrative, inflation is in danger of becoming a lot more persistent: at any one point, some groups in society will feel they have been “left behind” and will push for “catch-up” compensation. Put another way, rather than causing inflation, rolling industrial disputes are a consequence of inflation’s own inherent unfairness.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Japanese Technology Firm Fujitsu Launches Advanced Artificial Intelligence Tool for Corporate Disclosures
South Africa Officially Launches Nationwide Campaign for Highly Contested Local Government Elections
United Kingdom Commits Additional Funding for Unexploded Ordnance Clearance in Laos
Singapore Announces Stringent New Greenhouse Gas Regulations for Commercial Cooling Systems
Cambodia and Thailand Hold High-Level Border Security Talks at United Nations Headquarters
Myanmar Military Government and China Sign Major Agreement to Upgrade Media and Cultural Cooperation
Knife Attack at Swiss Train Station Leaves Three Injured in Suspected Act of Domestic Terrorism
Transnational Extortion Gang Threatens Canadian Police With Army of One Thousand Armed Operatives
Australia Imposes Forty-Two-Day Quarantine on Cruise Ship Passengers Following Deadly Hantavirus Outbreak
International Monetary Fund Unlocks Seven Hundred Million United States Dollars for Sri Lanka Following Economic Reforms
Australia Launches Record One Point Four Billion Dollar Lawsuit Against Chemical Giant 3M Over Contamination
China and Canada Foreign Ministers Meet in Ottawa in Effort to Stabilize Strained Diplomatic Ties
Indonesia Demands Urgent United Nations Security Council Reform Amid Escalating Global Conflicts
Extreme Weather Patterns Trigger Severe Drought in Madagascar and Destructive Flooding in East Africa
Indian State of Karnataka Faces Political Upheaval as Chief Minister Siddaramaiah Abruptly Resigns
Philippines and Japan Reaffirm Defense Ties as Crucial for Indo-Pacific Regional Stability
Norway Joins French Nuclear Deterrence Initiative in Major Shift for European Security Architecture
Global Critical Mineral Alliances Expand as Western Nations Move to Counter Chinese Supply Dominance
United States Imposes Fifty Percent Tariffs on Mexican Steel and Aluminum Ahead of Trade Pact Review
European Union and China Head Toward Major Trade Conflict Over Clean Technology Exports
United States Economic Growth Severely Downgraded to One Point Six Percent as Stagflation Fears Mount
World Health Organization Warns Central African Ebola Epidemic is Outpacing Containment Efforts
United States Treasury Department Conditions Sanctions Relief on Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
Iranian Air Defenses Intercept and Destroy United States Military Drone Over Bushehr Province
Iranian Armed Forces Launch Ballistic Missiles Toward Unspecified Targets Prompting Regional Condemnation
United Nations Secretary-General Warns Global Order Facing Highest Level of Conflict Since 1945
Israel Issues Sweeping Evacuation Orders in Southern Lebanon Amid Intensified Hezbollah Conflict
Russia Announces Systemic Military Strikes Targeting Ukrainian Defense and Energy Infrastructure
United States and Iranian Negotiators Reach Draft Agreement to Extend Ceasefire and Resume Nuclear Talks
United Nations Security Council Deeply Divided Over United States Capture of Venezuelan President
US and Iran Exchange Direct Military Strikes Amid Fragile Gulf Ceasefire
World Health Organization Warns of Catastrophic Ebola Outbreak in DR Congo
Russia Threatens New Wave of Strikes on Ukrainian Infrastructure and Embassies
Scientists Warn Atlantic Ocean Currents Could Collapse Faster Than Projected
Anthropic Reaches $900 Billion Valuation in Historic AI Funding Round
Washington Imposes Crippling Sanctions on Iranian Maritime Authority
Japan and the Philippines Initiate Strategic Intelligence-Sharing Pact
Microsoft Deploys Autonomous Computer-Using AI Agents to Global Markets
Anthropic Secures $45 Billion Compute Infrastructure Agreement With SpaceX
U.S. Director of National Intelligence Resigns Amid Administration Shakeup
Micron Technology Crosses Trillion-Dollar Valuation Amid Unprecedented Hardware Demand
Canada and Germany Finalize Historic Long-Term LNG Export Agreement
China Expands International Travel Restrictions on Domestic AI Researchers
Japan Approves Sweeping Overhaul of National Intelligence Apparatus
Global Airlines Scramble Logistics as Middle East Airspace Remains Fractured
Japan's Naphtha Imports Plunge 47 Percent Amid Strait of Hormuz Closure
Global Crude Prices Retreat Below $96 as Gulf Tensions Momentarily Ease
Generative AI Outperforms Human Baselines in Landmark Global Creativity Study
NASA Partners With Private Aerospace to Unveil Permanent Lunar Base Architecture
South Korean Equity Markets Surge on Next-Generation Memory Chip Frenzy
×