London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Monday, Jul 13, 2026

Hong Kong Assets Turn Toxic as Trade War and Protests Cloud Outlook

Hong Kong Assets Turn Toxic as Trade War and Protests Cloud Outlook

Investor anxiety is visible just about everywhere in Hong Kong’s markets as recession warnings and escalating protests strain sentiment to breaking point.

While most of the world recovered Tuesday from a yuan-induced meltdown, Hong Kong saw the biggest spike in interbank rates in more than a decade, the longest stretch of equity declines since 1984 and the wildest stock swings in four years. Bears reloaded on the local dollar in a way not seen since 2017, betting it will soon break through the weak end of its trading band.

The threat from the trade war and weeks of local unrest is already showing in the property market, as well as tourist numbers, hotel occupancy and retail sales. A weak yuan is another cause for concern, as it will damp spending from mainland visitors and pressure earnings for firms that rely on China. Profits for members of the Hang Seng Index are forecast to drop the most since the global financial crisis this year, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

The gauge fell as much as 0.4% Wednesday, despite an overnight rally in the U.S. The MSCI Hong Kong Index lost 0.2%, on track for an 11th day of declines.

“There is risk-off sentiment in general,” said Michael Liang, chief investment officer at Foundation Asset Management (HK) Ltd. “Hong Kong’s political risk is definitely a part of it. Fewer people are willing to invest in the city’s assets.”

In some of the Chinese government’s strongest comments yet on the unrest that’s gripped the Asian financial hub since June, officials on Tuesday urged Hong Kong citizens to stand up to protesters. That followed Monday’s general strike that led to traffic chaos, violence, tear gas and flight cancellations in the most disruptive day since the protests started.

A QuickTake on why Hong Kong is protesting

The MSCI Hong Kong Index -- which unlike the more widely-used Hang Seng gauge doesn’t include Chinese heavyweights -- is suffering its worst stretch of losses since 1984. That was the year U.K. Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher and Chinese Premier Zhao Ziyang signed the Sino-British Joint Declaration in Beijing, committing to some of the terms for the handover of Hong Kong in 1997.

Hong Kong’s currency, while pegged to the greenback, is also influenced by the yuan due to the city’s close economic ties with China. It fell the most in more than three-and-a-half years Monday, tracking losses across Asia. The Hong Kong dollar’s 12-month forward points briefly spiked to 163 Tuesday, in a sign that some global hedge funds may betting against the currency. That was the highest level since early 2017.

The moves are affecting local borrowing costs, which underpin mortgages in one of the world’s least affordable housing markets. The rates are already facing pressure from tightening liquidity, which sent some tenors to decade-highs last month. One-month Hong Kong dollar interbank rates, known as Hibor, jumped the most since 2008 Tuesday.

Rates have remained ultra-low in Hong Kong since the financial crisis, while a huge amount of cash sloshing around in the financial system has helped fuel rallies in the stock and property markets. Now, stocks are falling and data last week showed July home sales fell 32% in value from a year earlier, while volume was down 21%.

And it could get worse: market watchers have warned home prices and retail rents may fall in the short term because of recent political unrest. A residential site was sold last month in a government tender for HK$11,842 ($1,511) per square foot -- the lowest price in more than two years. A purchasing-managers index fell to the lowest since March 2009 in July, signaling a contraction for a 16th month.

Hong Kong has a track record of resilience in the face of crises. From Asia’s financial implosion during the late 1990s to the SARS outbreak in 2003 and the global credit crunch of 2008, the city has always found a way to come out stronger.

That doesn’t mean a turnaround is near, however. The recent turmoil is making it almost impossible for investors to discern the outlook for Hong Kong assets.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
World Cup Visitors Turn American Big-Box Stores Into Souvenir Stops
Netflix Weighs Always-On Channels, Bundles and Short-Form Video
Passenger Is Pulled Partly Outside Ryanair Jet After Window Fails Mid-Flight
Innovation-led growth strategy
Public service reform pressure
Defence and industrial security
Labour leadership transition and economic reset
Northern England Pushes for Greater Influence in Britain’s Future Economic Model
UK Technology Strategy Focuses on Life Sciences, Digital Innovation and Research Investment
Britain and United States Maintain Focus on Pharmaceuticals Cooperation and Industrial Growth
UK Public Services Face Continued Pressure as Government Promises Visible Improvements
Regional Economic Power Becomes Key Theme in Britain’s Next Political Phase
Britain Expands Support for Small Businesses as Firms Seek Better Access to Finance
UK Economy Remains Central Political Challenge as Cost of Living and Growth Concerns Persist
National Health Service Introduces New Workplace Reviews to Improve Conditions for Healthcare Staff
UK Life Sciences Sector Secures More Than Three Billion Pounds in Investment to Support Innovation
Britain Strengthens Defence Strategy as Security Concerns Reshape Military and Industrial Policy
Andy Burnham Promises Stronger UK Defence Industry and Expanded Domestic Production
UK Government Faces Difficult Spending Choices as Labour Leadership Transition Approaches
Rachel Reeves Warns Andy Burnham of Immediate Economic Challenges After Expected Leadership Change
Andy Burnham Prepares to Lead UK Government With Plans for Regional Power Shift and Economic Reset
Government Creates Emergency Support Scheme for Financially Struggling Universities
United Kingdom Replaces Traditional Farm Subsidies With Payments Linked to Environmental Performance
National Grid Reports First Week of Electricity Generation Without Fossil Fuels
United Kingdom Financial Regulator Introduces Tougher Capital Rules for Cryptocurrency Exchanges
Belfast Harbour Expands Operations to Attract Investment Through United Kingdom and European Union Market Access
Scottish Government Threatens Legal Challenge Over Westminster Cuts to North Sea Transition Funding
United Kingdom Accelerates Trans-Pennine High-Speed Rail Project Linking Northern Cities
United Kingdom Secures Ten Billion Pound Investment for Cambridge Quantum Computing Campus
Port Talbot Steelworks Wins Support for Green Hydrogen Transition and Protection of Industrial Jobs
United Kingdom Sends Royal Navy Carrier Strike Group to Indo-Pacific as Regional Security Focus Expands
National Health Service Expands Artificial Intelligence Diagnostics Across England to Reduce Screening Backlogs
United Kingdom Launches Fifty Billion Pound Infrastructure Fund to Accelerate Housing and Construction
UK Medical Chiefs Update Health Guidance to Promote Everyday Physical Activity
Office of Communications Keeps Wikipedia Under Review Under UK Online Safety Rules
UK Defence Ministry Expands Deep-Strike Capability Through Precision Missile Programme
Russell Group Universities Warn Funding Cuts Could Damage NHS Workforce Training
UK Parliament Calls for National Emergency Broadcast as Heatwave Conditions Intensify
UK and Netherlands Strengthen Naval Cooperation With New Amphibious Defence Partnership
UK Defence Ministry Joins International Missile Programme With One Hundred and Ninety Million Pound Investment
Bank of England Warns Middle East Conflict and AI Risks Could Pressure UK Economy
UK Government Introduces New Rules to Limit Foreign Influence in Political Donations
UK and France Prepare Naval Mission to Protect Shipping Through Strait of Hormuz
United States Pressures UK to Increase Defence Spending at NATO Summit
Bank of England Warns Artificial Intelligence Investment Boom Could Create Financial Stability Risks
Bank of England Begins Direct Oversight of Critical Technology Providers Supporting UK Finance
Andy Burnham Set to Become UK Prime Minister After Labour Leadership Race Clears Path to Downing Street
Scottish Fishing Industry Calls for Emergency Support Amid Rising Costs
UK Supports Stronger European Response to Russian Actions in Ukraine
Devon and Cornwall Police Release Suspect in Ann Widdecombe Murder Investigation
×