London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Dec 18, 2025

Has court ruling boosted support for independence?

Has court ruling boosted support for independence?

A shift of opinion registered in one poll should always be regarded with caution.

But when a number of polls all record much the same shift, it is highly likely that something has changed.

Before the Supreme Court pronounced on 23 November that the Scottish Parliament could not legislate for a referendum on independence without the agreement of the UK parliament, most polls of how people would vote in another independence referendum put No narrowly ahead.

Five polls conducted in September and October on average put No on 51% (once those saying Don't Know were excluded) while Yes were credited with 49%.

However, four polls conducted since the Supreme Court judgement have all put Yes ahead - on average by 54% to 46%.

Support for independence has not been consistently that high in the polls since the beginning of 2021, when Scotland was still in the midst of the Covid-19 lockdown.

The decision of the Supreme Court was widely welcomed by those who would like Scotland to remain part of the UK.

However, in the short run at least, it appears to have undermined popular support for the Union somewhat.

Underneath the overall figures there is a big age difference.

On average, in the latest polls nearly three-quarters (72%) of those aged 16 to 24 say they would vote Yes, whereas only two in five (40%) of those who are 65 or older want Scotland to leave the UK.

In contrast, there is majority support for independence among both men (53%) and women (54%) - a big difference from the position in 2014 when men were markedly more likely than women to vote Yes.



The question of whether there should be another referendum is, of course, highly controversial.

However, for the most part those who want Scotland to become independent support the idea, while those who wish to remain in the UK are opposed.

For example, when Redfield & Wilton asked whether there should a referendum in the next year, 90% of supporters said there should, while 91% of No supporters felt there should not.

However, most polling suggests that some Yes supporters would prefer to delay any referendum to beyond next year.

For example, Ipsos found that while two-thirds of Yes supporters would prefer a referendum next year, a quarter would want to leave it until some point between 2024 and 2026.

Even so, their views are still very different from those of No supporters, just 6% of whom want a referendum at some point between now and the next Holyrood election in 2026.
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon wants to use the next general election as a "de facto referendum" on independence


YouGov also find that Yes supporters are keener on a referendum being held at some point in the next five years than they are on having one next year - but that most Unionist supporters are not keen on either prospect.

But why might the Supreme Court decision have persuaded some voters to switch to Yes?

One possible clue comes from YouGov's poll, which found that 51% of all voters believe that the Scottish Parliament should have the power to call a referendum without the agreement of the UK government, while only 39% took the opposite view.

Perhaps crucially, nearly a quarter (23%) of those who voted No in 2014 believe that the Scottish Parliament should be able to hold a referendum.

This suggests the Supreme Court's decision may have jarred with some voters.

However, the same YouGov poll also suggests voters have their doubts about Nicola Sturgeon's proposal in the wake of the Supreme Court decision that a majority vote for pro-independence parties at the next UK election should be regarded as a mandate for independence.

Only 39% support this idea, while 52% are opposed - including nearly one in four (23%) of those who voted for the SNP at the last UK election in 2019.

In truth, the latest polls provide plenty of food for thought for both sides in Scotland's continuing constitutional debate.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Issues Final Ultimatum to Roman Abramovich Over £2.5bn Chelsea Sale Funds for Ukraine
Rare Pink Fog Sweeps Across Parts of the UK as Met Office Warns of Poor Visibility
UK Police Pledge ‘More Assertive’ Enforcement to Tackle Antisemitism at Protests
UK Police Warn They Will Arrest Protesters Chanting ‘Globalise the Intifada’
Trump Files $10 Billion Defamation Lawsuit Against BBC as Broadcaster Pledges Legal Defence
UK Says U.S. Tech Deal Talks Still Active Despite Washington’s Suspension of Prosperity Pact
UK Mortgage Rules to Give Greater Flexibility to Borrowers With Irregular Incomes
UK Treasury Moves to Position Britain as Leading Global Hub for Crypto Firms
U.S. Freezes £31 Billion Tech Prosperity Deal With Britain Amid Trade Dispute
Prince Harry and Meghan’s Potential UK Return Gains New Momentum Amid Security Review and Royal Dialogue
Zelensky Opens High-Stakes Peace Talks in Berlin with Trump Envoy and European Leaders
Historical Reflections on Press Freedom Emerge Amid Debate Over Trump’s Media Policies
UK Boosts Protection for Jewish Communities After Sydney Hanukkah Attack
UK Government Declines to Comment After ICC Prosecutor Alleges Britain Threatened to Defund Court Over Israel Arrest Warrant
Apple Shutters All Retail Stores in the United Kingdom Under New National COVID-19 Lockdown
US–UK Technology Partnership Strains as Key Trade Disagreements Emerge
UK Police Confirm No Further Action Over Allegation That Andrew Asked Bodyguard to Investigate Virginia Giuffre
Giuffre Family Expresses Deep Disappointment as UK Police Decline New Inquiry Into Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor Claims
Transatlantic Trade Ambitions Hit a Snag as UK–US Deal Faces Emerging Challenges
Ex-ICC Prosecutor Alleges UK Threatened to Withdraw Funding Over Netanyahu Arrest Warrant Bid
UK Disciplinary Tribunal Clears Carter-Ruck Lawyer of Misconduct in OneCoin Case
‘Pink Ladies’ Emerge as Prominent Face of UK Anti-Immigration Protests
Nigel Farage Says Reform UK Has Become Britain’s Largest Party as Labour Membership Falls Sharply
Google DeepMind and UK Government Launch First Automated AI Lab to Accelerate Scientific Discovery
UK Economy Falters Ahead of Budget as Growth Contracts and Confidence Wanes
Australia Approves Increased Foreign Stake in Strategic Defence Shipbuilder
Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson proclaims, “For Ukraine, surrendering their land would be a nightmare.”
Microsoft Challenges £2.1 Billion UK Cloud Licensing Lawsuit at Competition Tribunal
Fake Doctor in Uttar Pradesh Accused of Killing Woman After Performing YouTube-Based Surgery
Hackers Are Hiding Malware in Open-Source Tools and IDE Extensions
Traveling to USA? Homeland Security moving toward requiring foreign travelers to share social media history
UK Officials Push Back at Trump Saying European Leaders ‘Talk Too Much’ About Ukraine
UK Warns of Escalating Cyber Assault Linked to Putin’s State-Backed Operations
UK Consumer Spending Falters in November as Households Hold Back Ahead of Budget
UK Orders Fresh Review of Prince Harry’s Security Status After Formal Request
U.S. Authorises Nvidia to Sell H200 AI Chips to China Under Security Controls
Trump in Direct Assault: European Leaders Are Weak, Immigration a Disaster. Russia Is Strong and Big — and Will Win
"App recommendation" or disguised advertisement? ChatGPT Premium users are furious
"The Great Filtering": Australia Blocks Hundreds of Thousands of Minors From Social Networks
Mark Zuckerberg Pulls Back From Metaverse After $70 Billion Loss as Meta Shifts Priorities to AI
Nvidia CEO Says U.S. Data-Center Builds Take Years while China ‘Builds a Hospital in a Weekend’
Indian Airports in Turmoil as IndiGo Cancels Over a Thousand Flights, Stranding Thousands
Hollywood Industry on Edge as Netflix Secures Near-$60 Bln Loan for Warner Bros Takeover
Drugs and Assassinations: The Connection Between the Italian Mafia and Football Ultras
Hollywood megadeal: Netflix acquires Warner Bros. Discovery for 83 billion dollars
The Disregard for a Europe ‘in Danger of Erasure,’ the Shift Toward Russia: Trump’s Strategic Policy Document
Two and a Half Weeks After the Major Outage: A Cloudflare Malfunction Brings Down Multiple Sites
UK data-regulator demands urgent clarity on racial bias in police facial-recognition systems
Labour Uses Biscuits to Explain UK Debt — MPs Lean Into Social Media to Reach New Audiences
German President Lays Wreath at Coventry as UK-Germany Reaffirm Unity Against Russia’s Threat
×