London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Jun 20, 2025

Has court ruling boosted support for independence?

Has court ruling boosted support for independence?

A shift of opinion registered in one poll should always be regarded with caution.

But when a number of polls all record much the same shift, it is highly likely that something has changed.

Before the Supreme Court pronounced on 23 November that the Scottish Parliament could not legislate for a referendum on independence without the agreement of the UK parliament, most polls of how people would vote in another independence referendum put No narrowly ahead.

Five polls conducted in September and October on average put No on 51% (once those saying Don't Know were excluded) while Yes were credited with 49%.

However, four polls conducted since the Supreme Court judgement have all put Yes ahead - on average by 54% to 46%.

Support for independence has not been consistently that high in the polls since the beginning of 2021, when Scotland was still in the midst of the Covid-19 lockdown.

The decision of the Supreme Court was widely welcomed by those who would like Scotland to remain part of the UK.

However, in the short run at least, it appears to have undermined popular support for the Union somewhat.

Underneath the overall figures there is a big age difference.

On average, in the latest polls nearly three-quarters (72%) of those aged 16 to 24 say they would vote Yes, whereas only two in five (40%) of those who are 65 or older want Scotland to leave the UK.

In contrast, there is majority support for independence among both men (53%) and women (54%) - a big difference from the position in 2014 when men were markedly more likely than women to vote Yes.



The question of whether there should be another referendum is, of course, highly controversial.

However, for the most part those who want Scotland to become independent support the idea, while those who wish to remain in the UK are opposed.

For example, when Redfield & Wilton asked whether there should a referendum in the next year, 90% of supporters said there should, while 91% of No supporters felt there should not.

However, most polling suggests that some Yes supporters would prefer to delay any referendum to beyond next year.

For example, Ipsos found that while two-thirds of Yes supporters would prefer a referendum next year, a quarter would want to leave it until some point between 2024 and 2026.

Even so, their views are still very different from those of No supporters, just 6% of whom want a referendum at some point between now and the next Holyrood election in 2026.
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon wants to use the next general election as a "de facto referendum" on independence


YouGov also find that Yes supporters are keener on a referendum being held at some point in the next five years than they are on having one next year - but that most Unionist supporters are not keen on either prospect.

But why might the Supreme Court decision have persuaded some voters to switch to Yes?

One possible clue comes from YouGov's poll, which found that 51% of all voters believe that the Scottish Parliament should have the power to call a referendum without the agreement of the UK government, while only 39% took the opposite view.

Perhaps crucially, nearly a quarter (23%) of those who voted No in 2014 believe that the Scottish Parliament should be able to hold a referendum.

This suggests the Supreme Court's decision may have jarred with some voters.

However, the same YouGov poll also suggests voters have their doubts about Nicola Sturgeon's proposal in the wake of the Supreme Court decision that a majority vote for pro-independence parties at the next UK election should be regarded as a mandate for independence.

Only 39% support this idea, while 52% are opposed - including nearly one in four (23%) of those who voted for the SNP at the last UK election in 2019.

In truth, the latest polls provide plenty of food for thought for both sides in Scotland's continuing constitutional debate.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
16 Billion Login Credentials Leaked in Unprecedented Cybersecurity Breach
Senate hearing on who was 'really running' Biden White House kicks off
Iranian Military Officers Reportedly Seek Contact with Reza Pahlavi, Signal Intent to Defect
FBI and Senate Investigate Allegations of Chinese Plot to Influence the 2020 Election in Biden’s Favor Using Fake U.S. Driver’s Licenses
Vietnam Emerges as Luxury Yacht Destination for Ultra‑Rich
Plans to Sell Dutch Embassy in Bangkok Face Local Opposition
China's Iranian Oil Imports Face Disruption Amid Escalating Middle East Tensions
Trump's $5 Million 'Trump Card' Visa Program Draws Nearly 70,000 Applicants
DGCA Finds No Major Safety Concerns in Air India's Boeing 787 Fleet
Airlines Reroute Flights Amid Expanding Middle East Conflict Zones
Elon Musk's xAI Seeks $9.3 Billion in Funding Amid AI Expansion
Trump Demands Iran's Unconditional Surrender Amid Escalating Conflict
Israeli Airstrike Targets Iranian State TV in Central Tehran
President Trump is leaving the G7 summit early and has ordered the National Security Council to the Situation Room
Taiwan Imposes Export Ban on Chips to Huawei and SMIC
Israel has just announced plans to strike Tehran again, and in response, Trump has urged people to evacuate
Netanyahu Signals Potential Regime Change in Iran
Juncker Criticizes EU Inaction on Trump Tariffs
EU Proposes Ban on New Russian Gas Contracts
Analysts Warn Iran May Resort to Unconventional Warfare
Iranian Regime Faces Existential Threat Amid Conflict
Energy Infrastructure Becomes War Zone in Middle East
UK Home Secretary Apologizes Over Child Grooming Failures
Trump Organization Launches 5G Mobile Network and Golden Handset
Towcester Hosts 2025 English Greyhound Derby Amid Industry Scrutiny
Gary Oldman and David Beckham Knighted in King's Birthday Honours
Over 30,000 Lightning Strikes Recorded Across UK During Overnight Storms
Princess of Wales Returns to Public Duties at Trooping the Colour
Red Arrows Use Sustainable Fuel in Historic Trooping the Colour Flypast
Former Welsh First Minister Addresses Unionist Concerns Over Irish Language
Iran Signals Openness to Nuclear Negotiations Amid Ongoing Regional Tensions
France Bars Israeli Arms Companies from Paris Defense Expo
King Charles Leads Tribute to Air India Crash Victims at Trooping the Colour
Jack Pitchford Embarks on 200-Mile Walk to Support Stem Cell Charity
Surrey Hikers Take on Challenge of Climbing 11 Peaks in a Single Day
UK Deploys RAF Jets to Middle East Amid Israel-Iran Tensions
Two Skydivers Die in 'Tragic Accident' at Devon Airfield
Sainsbury's and Morrisons Accused of Displaying Prohibited Tobacco Ads
UK Launches National Inquiry into Grooming Gangs
Families Seek Closure After Air India Crash
Gold Emerges as Global Safe Haven Amid Uncertainty
Trump Reports $57 Million Earnings from Crypto Venture
Trump's Military Parade Sparks Concerns Over Authoritarianism
Nationwide 'No Kings' Protests Challenge Trump's Leadership
UK Deploys Jets to Middle East Amid Rising Tensions
Trump's Anti-War Stance Tested Amid Israel-Iran Conflict
Germany Holds First Veterans Celebration Since WWII
U.S. Health Secretary Dismisses CDC Vaccine Advisory Committee
Minnesota Lawmaker Melissa Hortman and Husband Killed in Targeted Attack; Senator John Hoffman and Wife Injured
Exiled Iranian Prince Reza Pahlavi Urges Overthrow of Khamenei Regime
×