London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Monday, Aug 25, 2025

Has court ruling boosted support for independence?

Has court ruling boosted support for independence?

A shift of opinion registered in one poll should always be regarded with caution.

But when a number of polls all record much the same shift, it is highly likely that something has changed.

Before the Supreme Court pronounced on 23 November that the Scottish Parliament could not legislate for a referendum on independence without the agreement of the UK parliament, most polls of how people would vote in another independence referendum put No narrowly ahead.

Five polls conducted in September and October on average put No on 51% (once those saying Don't Know were excluded) while Yes were credited with 49%.

However, four polls conducted since the Supreme Court judgement have all put Yes ahead - on average by 54% to 46%.

Support for independence has not been consistently that high in the polls since the beginning of 2021, when Scotland was still in the midst of the Covid-19 lockdown.

The decision of the Supreme Court was widely welcomed by those who would like Scotland to remain part of the UK.

However, in the short run at least, it appears to have undermined popular support for the Union somewhat.

Underneath the overall figures there is a big age difference.

On average, in the latest polls nearly three-quarters (72%) of those aged 16 to 24 say they would vote Yes, whereas only two in five (40%) of those who are 65 or older want Scotland to leave the UK.

In contrast, there is majority support for independence among both men (53%) and women (54%) - a big difference from the position in 2014 when men were markedly more likely than women to vote Yes.



The question of whether there should be another referendum is, of course, highly controversial.

However, for the most part those who want Scotland to become independent support the idea, while those who wish to remain in the UK are opposed.

For example, when Redfield & Wilton asked whether there should a referendum in the next year, 90% of supporters said there should, while 91% of No supporters felt there should not.

However, most polling suggests that some Yes supporters would prefer to delay any referendum to beyond next year.

For example, Ipsos found that while two-thirds of Yes supporters would prefer a referendum next year, a quarter would want to leave it until some point between 2024 and 2026.

Even so, their views are still very different from those of No supporters, just 6% of whom want a referendum at some point between now and the next Holyrood election in 2026.
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon wants to use the next general election as a "de facto referendum" on independence


YouGov also find that Yes supporters are keener on a referendum being held at some point in the next five years than they are on having one next year - but that most Unionist supporters are not keen on either prospect.

But why might the Supreme Court decision have persuaded some voters to switch to Yes?

One possible clue comes from YouGov's poll, which found that 51% of all voters believe that the Scottish Parliament should have the power to call a referendum without the agreement of the UK government, while only 39% took the opposite view.

Perhaps crucially, nearly a quarter (23%) of those who voted No in 2014 believe that the Scottish Parliament should be able to hold a referendum.

This suggests the Supreme Court's decision may have jarred with some voters.

However, the same YouGov poll also suggests voters have their doubts about Nicola Sturgeon's proposal in the wake of the Supreme Court decision that a majority vote for pro-independence parties at the next UK election should be regarded as a mandate for independence.

Only 39% support this idea, while 52% are opposed - including nearly one in four (23%) of those who voted for the SNP at the last UK election in 2019.

In truth, the latest polls provide plenty of food for thought for both sides in Scotland's continuing constitutional debate.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Vietnam Evacuates Hundreds of Thousands as Typhoon Kajiki Strikes; China’s Sanya Shuts Down
UK Government Delays Decision on China’s Proposed London Embassy Amid Concerns Over Redacted Plans
A 150-Year Tradition to Be Abolished? Uproar Over the Popular Central Park Attraction
A new faith called Robotheism claims artificial intelligence isn’t just smart but actually God itself
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner Purchases Third Property Amid Housing Tax Reforms Debate
HSBC Switzerland Ends Relationships with Over 1,000 Clients from Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Qatar, and Egypt
Sharia Law Made Legally Binding in Austria Despite Warnings Over 'Incompatible' Values
Italian Facebook Group Sharing Intimate Images Without Consent Shut Down Amid Police Investigation
Dutch Foreign Minister Resigns Amid Deadlock Over Israel Sanctions
Trump and Allies Send Messages of Support to Ukraine on Independence Day Amid Ongoing Conflict
China Reels as Telegram Chat Group Shares Hidden-Camera Footage of Women and Children
Sam Nicoresti becomes first transgender comedian to win Edinburgh Comedy Award
Builders uncover historic human remains in Lancashire house renovation
Australia Wants to Tax Your Empty Bedrooms
MotoGP Cameraman Narrowly Avoids Pedro Acosta Crash at Hungarian Grand Prix
FBI Investigates John Bolton Over Classified Documents in High-Profile Raids
Report reveals OpenAI pitched national ChatGPT Plus subscription to UK ministers
Labour set to freeze income tax thresholds in long-term 'stealth' tax raid
Coca‑Cola explores sale of Costa coffee chain
Trial hears dog walker was chased and fatally stabbed by trio
Restaurateur resigns from government hospitality council over tax criticism
Spanish City funfair shut after serious ride injury
Suspected arson at Ilford restaurant leaves three in critical condition
Tottenham beat Manchester City to go top of Premier League
Bank holiday heatwave to hit 30°C before remnants of Hurricane Erin arrive
UK to deploy immigration advisers to West Africa to block fake visas
Nurse who raped woman continued working for a year despite police alert
Drought forces closures of England’s canal routes, canceling boat holidays
Sweet tooth scents: food-inspired perfumes surge as weight-loss drugs suppress appetites
Experts warn Britain dangerously reliant on imported food
Family of Notting Hill Carnival murder victim call event unmanageable
Bunkers, Billions and Apocalypse: The Secret Compounds of Zuckerberg and the Tech Giants
Ukraine Declares De Facto War on Hungary and Slovakia with Terror Drone Strikes on Their Gas Lifeline
Animated K-pop Musical ‘KPop Demon Hunters’ Becomes Netflix’s Most-Watched Original Animated Film
New York Appeals Court Voids Nearly $500 Million Civil Fraud Penalty Against Trump While Upholding Fraud Liability
Elon Musk tweeted, “Europe is dying”
Far-Right Activist Convicted of Incitement Changes Gender and Demands: "Send Me to a Women’s Prison" | The Storm in Germany
Hungary Criticizes Ukraine: "Violating Our Sovereignty"
Will this be the first country to return to negative interest rates?
Child-free hotels spark controversy
North Korea is where this 95-year-old wants to die. South Korea won’t let him go. Is this our ally or a human rights enemy?
Hong Kong Launches Regulatory Regime and Trials for HKD-Backed Stablecoins
China rehearses September 3 Victory Day parade as imagery points to ‘loyal wingman’ FH-97 family presence
Trump Called Viktor Orbán: "Why Are You Using the Veto"
Horror in the Skies: Plane Engine Exploded, Passengers Sent Farewell Messages
MSNBC Rebrands as MS NOW Amid Comcast’s Cable Spin-Off
AI in Policing: Draft One Helps Speed Up Reports but Raises Legal and Ethical Concerns
Shame in Norway: Crown Princess’s Son Accused of Four Rapes
Apple Begins Simultaneous iPhone 17 Production in India and China
A Robot to Give Birth: The Chinese Announcement That Shakes the World
×