London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Tuesday, Nov 04, 2025

Has court ruling boosted support for independence?

Has court ruling boosted support for independence?

A shift of opinion registered in one poll should always be regarded with caution.

But when a number of polls all record much the same shift, it is highly likely that something has changed.

Before the Supreme Court pronounced on 23 November that the Scottish Parliament could not legislate for a referendum on independence without the agreement of the UK parliament, most polls of how people would vote in another independence referendum put No narrowly ahead.

Five polls conducted in September and October on average put No on 51% (once those saying Don't Know were excluded) while Yes were credited with 49%.

However, four polls conducted since the Supreme Court judgement have all put Yes ahead - on average by 54% to 46%.

Support for independence has not been consistently that high in the polls since the beginning of 2021, when Scotland was still in the midst of the Covid-19 lockdown.

The decision of the Supreme Court was widely welcomed by those who would like Scotland to remain part of the UK.

However, in the short run at least, it appears to have undermined popular support for the Union somewhat.

Underneath the overall figures there is a big age difference.

On average, in the latest polls nearly three-quarters (72%) of those aged 16 to 24 say they would vote Yes, whereas only two in five (40%) of those who are 65 or older want Scotland to leave the UK.

In contrast, there is majority support for independence among both men (53%) and women (54%) - a big difference from the position in 2014 when men were markedly more likely than women to vote Yes.



The question of whether there should be another referendum is, of course, highly controversial.

However, for the most part those who want Scotland to become independent support the idea, while those who wish to remain in the UK are opposed.

For example, when Redfield & Wilton asked whether there should a referendum in the next year, 90% of supporters said there should, while 91% of No supporters felt there should not.

However, most polling suggests that some Yes supporters would prefer to delay any referendum to beyond next year.

For example, Ipsos found that while two-thirds of Yes supporters would prefer a referendum next year, a quarter would want to leave it until some point between 2024 and 2026.

Even so, their views are still very different from those of No supporters, just 6% of whom want a referendum at some point between now and the next Holyrood election in 2026.
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon wants to use the next general election as a "de facto referendum" on independence


YouGov also find that Yes supporters are keener on a referendum being held at some point in the next five years than they are on having one next year - but that most Unionist supporters are not keen on either prospect.

But why might the Supreme Court decision have persuaded some voters to switch to Yes?

One possible clue comes from YouGov's poll, which found that 51% of all voters believe that the Scottish Parliament should have the power to call a referendum without the agreement of the UK government, while only 39% took the opposite view.

Perhaps crucially, nearly a quarter (23%) of those who voted No in 2014 believe that the Scottish Parliament should be able to hold a referendum.

This suggests the Supreme Court's decision may have jarred with some voters.

However, the same YouGov poll also suggests voters have their doubts about Nicola Sturgeon's proposal in the wake of the Supreme Court decision that a majority vote for pro-independence parties at the next UK election should be regarded as a mandate for independence.

Only 39% support this idea, while 52% are opposed - including nearly one in four (23%) of those who voted for the SNP at the last UK election in 2019.

In truth, the latest polls provide plenty of food for thought for both sides in Scotland's continuing constitutional debate.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Trump Calls Title Removal of Andrew ‘Tragic Situation’ Amid Royal Fallout
UK Bonds Rally as Chancellor Reeves Briefs Markets Ahead of November Budget
UK Report Backs Generational Smoking Ban Ahead of Tobacco & Vapes Bill Review
UK’s Domino’s Pizza Group Reports Modest Like-for-Like Sales Growth in Q3
UK Supplies Additional Storm Shadow Missiles to Ukraine as Trump Alleges Russian Underground Nuclear Tests
High-Profile Broodmare Puca Sells for Five Million Dollars at Fasig-Tipton ‘Night of the Stars’
Wilt Chamberlain’s One-of-a-Kind ‘Searcher 1’ Supercar Heads to Auction
Erling Haaland’s Remarkable Run: 13 Premier League Goals in 10 Matches and Eyes on History
UK Labour Peer Warns of Emerging ‘Constituency for Hating Jews’ in Britain
UK Home Secretary Admits Loss of Border Control, Warns Public Trust at Risk
President Trump Expresses Sympathy for UK Royal Family After Title Stripping of Prince Andrew
Former Prince Andrew to Lose His Last Military Title as King Charles Moves to End His Public Role
King Charles Relocates Andrew to Sandringham Estate and Strips Titles Amid Epstein Fallout
Two Arrested After Mass Stabbing on UK Train Leaves Ten Hospitalised
Glamour UK Says ‘Stay Mad Jo x’ After Really Big Rowling Backlash
Former Prince Prince Andrew Faces Possible U.S. Congressional Appearance Over Jeffrey Epstein Inquiry
UK Faces £20 Billion Productivity Shortfall as Brexit’s Impact Deepens
UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves Eyes New Council-Tax Bands for High-Value Homes
UK Braces for Major Storm with Snow, Heavy Rain and Winds as High as 769 Miles Wide
U.S. Secures Key Southeast Asia Agreements to Reshape Rare Earth Supply Chains
US and China Agree One-Year Trade Truce After Trump-Xi Talks
BYD Profit Falls 33 % as Chinese EV Maker Doubles Down on Overseas Markets
US Philanthropists Shift Hundreds of Millions to UK to Evade Regulatory Uncertainty in Trump Era
Israeli Energy Minister Delays $35 Billion Gas Export Agreement with Egypt
King Charles Strips Prince Andrew of Titles and Royal Residence
Trump–Putin Budapest Summit Cancelled After Moscow Memo Raises Conditions for Ukraine Talks
Amazon Shares Soar 11% as Cloud Business Hits Fastest Growth Since 2022
Credit Markets Flooded with More Than $200 Billion of AI-Linked Debt Issuance
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Says China Made 'a Real Mistake' by Threatening Rare-Earth Exports
Report Claims Nearly Two Billion Dollars in Foreign Charity Funds Flowed into U.S. Advocacy Groups
White House Refutes Reports That US Targeting Military Sites in Venezuela
Meta Seeks Dismissal of Strike 3’s $350 Million Copyright Lawsuit
Apple Exceeds Forecasts With $102.5 Billion Q3 Revenue Despite iPhone Miss
Israel's IDF Major General Yifat Tomer-Yerushalmi Admits to Act Amounting to Aiding Hamas During Wartime (Treason)
Shawbrook IPO Marks London’s Biggest UK Listing in Two Years
UK Government Split Over Backing Brazil’s $125 Billion Tropical Forest Fund Ahead of COP30
J.K. Rowling Condemns Glamour UK Feature of Nine Trans Women as 'Men Better at Being Women'
King Charles III Removes Prince Andrew’s Titles and Orders His Departure from Royal Lodge
UK Finance Minister Reeves Releases Email Correspondence to Clarify Rental-Licence Breach
UK and Vietnam Sign Landmark Migration Deal to Fast-Track Returns of Irregular Arrivals
UK Drug-Pricing Overhaul Essential for Life-Sciences Ambition, Says GSK Chief
Princesses Beatrice and Eugenie Temporarily Leave the UK Amid Their Parents’ Royal Fallout
UK Weighs Early End to Oil and Gas Windfall Tax as Reeves Seeks Investment Commitments
UK Retail Inflation Slows as Shop Prices Fall for First Time Since Spring
Next Raises Full-Year Profit Guidance After Strong Third-Quarter Performance
Reform UK’s Lee Anderson Admits to 'Gaming' Benefits System While Advocating Crackdown
United States and South Korea Conclude Major Trade Accord Worth $350 Billion
Hurricane Melissa Strikes Cuba After Devastating Jamaica With Record Winds
Vice President Vance to Headline Turning Point USA Campus Event at Ole Miss
U.S. Targets Maritime Narco-Routes While Border Pressure to Mexico Remains Limited
×