London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Saturday, Aug 02, 2025

Good, bad and the ugly: how Boris Johnson’s future may play out

Good, bad and the ugly: how Boris Johnson’s future may play out

The prime minister’s Lazarus-like ability to survive scandals faces its sternest test yet

Boris Johnson is reputedly a politician with a Lazarus-like ability to overcome perpetual scandal, charm his critics and survive bruising stories that would sink his rivals. But how may this most serious misdeed of his political career ultimately play out?

1. Johnson’s escape route


The most perfect scenario for Johnson is that the only fixed-penalty notice he receives for Partygate is the one for a short birthday gathering – one that Tory whips and spinners have tried to portray as an overly punitive approach by the Met police.

Even for a politician with as much luck as Johnson, that would seem far-fetched, given at least three of the most overt apparent breaches are yet to be investigated. But once MPs have accepted a law-breaking PM once, it is easier to do it again, a fact the Welsh secretary, Simon Hart, made explicit on Thursday morning.

If Johnson can get through a week of parliamentary outrage and convince MPs he was unclear about the nature of the gatherings because they took place in the workplace that is also his home, he may wriggle out of claims he misled parliament. He could also dodge damage from Sue Gray’s final report if it does not reveal substantially more than the media coverage – MPs will see it as old news.

Tory MPs are already uneasy about deposing a prime minister in the midst of the barbaric scenes in Ukraine and a further escalatory attack by Russia would also make them more nervous about moving against Johnson.

“If Russia uses chemical weapons when we are in the midst of a contest, who will provide the leadership to make some incredibly important choices?” one MP said. “That’s what keeps me awake at night over this.”

The Conservatives may also do better in the local elections than expected because the bar is low. Labour already holds a great deal of the seats up for grabs this time and may not be able to hail masses of gains. There are some councils too where the Tories say they are optimistic they can make gains – notably Sunderland, which would have symbolic “red wall” significance. A huge boost would be a win for the Tories in the Wakefield byelection, which Labour are widely expected to win.

Should Johnson survive beyond those polls, it is easy to see him cruising to Tory conference and on to the next election.

2. A painful impasse


It is widely expected in Downing Street that the prime minister will receive at least three more fines – perhaps as many as six in total. With each disclosure, increasing numbers of Conservative MPs could reach their limit and call for the prime minister to go.

But even the most hardened rebel MPs admit there is some way to go before 54 letters are reached – the threshold for Sir Graham Brady to call a vote of no confidence in the PM in his capacity as chair of the backbench 1922 Committee.

With a slow pace of disclosures from the Met police, those letters could remain a trickle rather than a flood. Just two MPs – Nigel Mills and Craig Whittaker – added their names to those calling for Johnson’s resignation after he was fined and only Mills said he would submit a letter. And at least two have been withdrawn, from Andrew Bridgen and Douglas Ross.

At the local elections, with still no sign of the Gray report, the Tories may still suffer losses but do just enough to be able to spin the story of the night as Labour’s failure to make enough gains. Equally, Labour could win Wakefield but only with a small swing on a low turnout.

Though that might be frustrating for Labour in the short term, this kind of scenario – described by one Tory official as a “long slow death march” – may arguably most benefit Labour in the longer term – a prime minister dogged by scandal but with internal opponents too weak to replace him.

3. The PM runs out of luck


One of the people who held Johnson’s fate in his hands this week was Rishi Sunak – who could have resigned after receiving his own fixed-penalty notice and denounced the chaos of Johnson’s administration.

After his own month of difficult headlines, the chancellor opted to stay put. But any further pressure on Sunak could push him to his limit – especially amid rumours Johnson intends to demote him on the advice of the strategist Lynton Crosby. His departure could trigger further resignations from other uneasy junior ministers.

No 10 sources believe Johnson could be hit with fines for six separate events, with an embarrassing racking up of costs.

The final release of the Gray report may also mean egregious personal lockdown breaches by the PM come to light for the first time – or evidence that he agreed to events being held in advance, which would suggest he lied about perceiving them as work events. It could also potentially force the resignation of senior officials – perhaps his cabinet secretary, Simon Case.

Johnson may also face a bruising time in parliament in the coming weeks. The Speaker, Sir Lindsay Hoyle, is expected to allow a vote of MPs on an investigation into whether Johnson misled the House of Commons – and they could vote to hand an investigation to the privileges committee. Any significant rebellion by Tories could be hugely damaging – and prompt more letters of no confidence.

The Conservatives could then suffer a set of shock local election results, perhaps losing totemic London councils such as Wandsworth or Westminster. Coupled with a sharp drop in the national polls, that could be enough to force a larger contingent of MPs from the party’s One Nation group to move against Johnson, enough to trigger a vote of no confidence. Labour could win Wakefield with a big swing, enough to unnerve “red wall” backbenchers to help depose him.

Ultimately the decider in a vote will be how safe Tories believe their seats will be under Johnson. If they conclude a successor would have a better chance of retaining them, some MPs have suggested more than half of backbenchers and even a third of the ministerial payroll could vote against Johnson.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Decline in Tourism in Majorca Amidst Ongoing Anti-Tourism Protests
British Tourist Dies Following Hair Transplant in Turkey, Police Investigate
Poland Begins Excavation at Dziemiany After New Clue to World War II‑Era Nazi Treasure
WhatsApp Users Targeted in New Scam Involving Account Takeovers
Trump Threatens Canada with Tariffs Over Palestinian State Recognition
Trump Deploys Nuclear Submarines After Threats from Former Russian President Medvedev
Trump Sues Murdoch in “Heavyweight Bout”: Lawsuit Over Alleged Epstein Letter Sets Stage for Courtroom Showdown
Germany Enters Fiscal Crisis as Cabinet Approves €174 Billion in New Debt
Trump Administration Finalizes Broad Tariff Increases on Global Trade Partners
J.K. Rowling Limits Public Engagements Citing Safety Fears
JD.com Launches €2.2 Billion Bid for German Electronics Retailer Ceconomy
Azerbaijan Proceeds with Plan to Legalise Casinos on Artificial Islands
Former Judge Charged After Drunk Driving Crash Kills Comedian in Brazil
Jeff Bezos hasn’t paid a dollar in taxes for decades. He makes billions and pays $0 in taxes, LEGALLY
China Increases Use of Exit Bans Amid Rising U.S. Tensions
IMF Upgrades Global Growth Forecast as Weaker Dollar Supports Outlook
Procter & Gamble to Raise U.S. Prices to Offset One‑Billion‑Dollar Tariff Cost
House Republicans Move to Defund OECD Over Global Tax Dispute
Botswana Seeks Controlling Stake in De Beers as Anglo American Prepares Exit
Trump Administration Proposes Repeal of Obama‑Era Endangerment Finding, Dismantling Regulatory Basis for CO₂ Emissions Limits
France Opens Criminal Investigation into X Over Algorithm Manipulation Allegations
A family has been arrested in the UK for displaying the British flag
Mel Gibson refuses to work with Robert De Niro, saying, "Keep that woke clown away from me."
Trump Steamrolls EU in Landmark Trade Win: US–EU Trade Deal Imposes 15% Tariff on European Imports
ChatGPT CEO Sam Altman says people share personal info with ChatGPT but don’t know chats can be used as court evidence in legal cases.
The British propaganda channel BBC News lies again.
Deputy attorney general's second day of meeting with Ghislaine Maxwell has concluded
Controversial March in Switzerland Features Men Dressed in Nazi Uniforms
Politics is a good business: Barack Obama’s Reported Net Worth Growth, 1990–2025
Thai Civilian Death Toll Rises to 12 in Cambodian Cross-Border Attacks
TSUNAMI: Trump Just Crossed the Rubicon—And There’s No Turning Back
Over 120 Criminal Cases Dismissed in Boston Amid Public Defender Shortage
UN's Top Court Declares Environmental Protection a Legal Obligation Under International Law
"Crazy Thing": OpenAI's Sam Altman Warns Of AI Voice Fraud Crisis In Banking
The Podcaster Who Accidentally Revealed He Earns Over $10 Million a Year
Trump Announces $550 Billion Japanese Investment and New Trade Agreements with Indonesia and the Philippines
US Treasury Secretary Calls for Institutional Review of Federal Reserve Amid AI‑Driven Growth Expectations
UK Government Considers Dropping Demand for Apple Encryption Backdoor
Severe Flooding in South Korea Claims Lives Amid Ongoing Rescue Operations
Japanese Man Discovers Family Connection Through DNA Testing After Decades of Separation
Russia Signals Openness to Ukraine Peace Talks Amid Escalating Drone Warfare
Switzerland Implements Ban on Mammography Screening
Japanese Prime Minister Vows to Stay After Coalition Loses Upper House Majority
Pogacar Extends Dominance with Stage Fifteen Triumph at Tour de France
CEO Resigns Amid Controversy Over Relationship with HR Executive
Man Dies After Being Pulled Into MRI Machine Due to Metal Chain in New York Clinic
NVIDIA Achieves $4 Trillion Valuation Amid AI Demand
US Revokes Visas of Brazilian Corrupted Judges Amid Fake Bolsonaro Investigation
U.S. Congress Approves Rescissions Act Cutting Federal Funding for NPR and PBS
North Korea Restricts Foreign Tourist Access to New Seaside Resort
×