London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Tuesday, Sep 16, 2025

Fixing NHS waiting times could cost £40bn, leaked No 10 estimates show

Fixing NHS waiting times could cost £40bn, leaked No 10 estimates show

Downing Street thinks spending can wait because public not ‘distressed’ about long delays yet, source says
Boris Johnson may have to spend up to £40bn to try to repair NHS waiting times and end the long delays being faced by patients, according to unpublished Downing Street estimates.

Calculations for No 10 drawn up by the Cabinet Office make clear that the prime minister may have to commit anywhere between £2bn and £10bn a year for up to four years, on top of core NHS funding, to tackle what is fast becoming a major political headache for the government.

The figures, disclosed by Whitehall sources, underline the huge scale of the challenge in getting NHS waiting times back to manageable levels before the next election.

The latest NHS England performance figures, out on Thursday, showed that the total number of people waiting for hospital treatment, especially surgery, had topped 5 million for the first time. It stood at 5,122,017 in April, the highest since records began in 2007.

However, despite negative publicity, Downing Street thinks it does not need to start throwing money at the problem soon because the public are not yet “distressed” about long delays, a source with knowledge of No 10’s thinking said.

The projections were put together by the Cabinet Office as part of its work looking at the scale of post-Covid support needed in health, education and justice. Some Tories are tipping Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, to succeed Matt Hancock as health and social care secretary.

The Treasury is reluctant to hand over large sums to tackle the deepening waiting list problem, sources say. NHS England plans to give Downing Street a detailed analysis soon of how long it will take to start providing care again within its existing set of targets, to help inform No 10’s thinking before the comprehensive spending review in the autumn.

The waiting list has soared by almost 425,000 people in just the past two months as people who either could not access non-Covid NHS care during the pandemic or were reluctant to do so belatedly saw their GP and were referred to hospital.

Hospitals in England managed to get back to providing 90% of pre-pandemic levels of non-urgent care in April. But they are hamstrung by personnel shortages, staff sickness linked to the strain of dealing with Covid and having fewer beds because of social distancing measures.

Of the 5.1 million, almost 400,000 people have had to wait more than a year for treatment for conditions including cancer and heart problems, hip and knee replacements and cataract removals. A small number – 2,722 – have already been waiting longer than two years. The NHS has not met its target of treating 92% of all patients on the waiting list within the supposed maximum 18 weeks since 2016.

Prof Anita Charlesworth, an NHS finances expert at the Health Foundation thinktank, said it had estimated that ministers would need to spend £6bn over three years to tackle the backlog. However, the sums needed will have gone up as a result of the second wave of Covid over the winter, which once again disrupted key services.

“The health service now has a mountain to climb. Reducing the backlog of long waits and getting the NHS into a position where waiting time standards are consistently met will need a major increase in funding,” Charlesworth said. But that would also need 5,000 extra beds, 4,100 more consultants and 17,100 additional nurses, she added, as the NHS was too under-resourced to ramp up the number of patients treated.

Richard Murray, the chief executive of the King’s Fund thinktank, said the NHS’s lack of scanners and operating theatres would severely limit its ability to increase activity.

Downing Street declined to comment on the leaked figures.

The Department of Health and Social Care said: “We’re backing the NHS with £1bn to tackle the waiting lists which have built up, providing up to 1m extra checks, scans and additional operations, and the NHS is providing £160m to trial innovative ways to accelerate elective recovery in key areas and enable more hospitals to go further, faster.

“That’s on top of an extra £7bn funding we’re giving health and care services this year.”

Chris Hopson, the chief executive of the hospitals group NHS Providers, said: “Trust leaders are deeply aware of how frustrating long waits for care are, and are doing all they can to prioritise those who need to be seen urgently.”

Ministers, NHS chiefs, medical groups and health charities are worried that lengthening waits for treatment could lead to patients’ health deteriorating and some even becoming untreatable.

The latest official figures show that there were a further 7,393 lab-confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the UK by 9am on Thursday. Seven more people have died within 28 days of testing positive, bringing the UK total to 127,867.

Public Health England data shows that infections are now rising again in every area of England, especially in the north-west.

Danny Mortimer, the deputy chief executive of the NHS Confederation, warned that hospitals might once again have to shut down normal care if the rising number of Covid infections produced a third wave that put serious pressure on them. He urged Boris Johnson to be ready to delay the lifting of restrictions as planned on 21 June.

In one positive element in the latest figures, the number of people being forced to wait at least a year for planned, non-urgent treatment in hospital has fallen from 436,127 to 385,490.

“Despite the extensive disruption to care caused by the pandemic, it’s encouraging that today’s figures show routine operations, cancer and mental health care have now all rebounded sharply,” said Prof Stephen Powis, NHS England’s national medical director.

“Average waits for non-urgent care have fallen to 11 weeks, and the number of people waiting over 52 weeks fell by more than 50,000 in April. Mental health services are back at pre-pandemic levels, and treatment rates for cancer are also now back to usual levels.”
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
U.S. and Britain Poised to Finalize Over $10 Billion in High-Tech, Nuclear and Defense Deals During Trump State Visit
China Finds Nvidia Violated Antitrust Laws in Mellanox Deal, Deepens Trade Tensions with US
US Air Force Begins Modifications on Qatar-Donated Jet Amid Plans to Use It as Air Force One
Pope Leo Warns of Societal Crisis Over Mega-CEO Pay, Citing Tesla’s Proposed Trillion-Dollar Package
Poland Green-Lights NATO Deployment in Response to Major Russian Drone Incursion
Elon Musk Retakes Lead as World’s Richest After Brief Ellison Surge
U.S. and China Agree on Framework to Shift TikTok to American Ownership
London Daily Podcast: London Massive Pro Democracy Rally, Musk Support, UK Economic Data and Premier League Results Mark Eventful Weekend
This Week in AI: Meta’s Superintelligence Push, xAI’s Ten Billion-Dollar Raise, Genesis AI’s Robotics Ambitions, Microsoft Restructuring, Amazon’s Million-Robot Milestone, and Google’s AlphaGenome Update
Le Pen Tightens the Pressure on Macron as France Edges Toward Political Breakdown
Musk calls for new UK government at huge pro-democracy rally in London, but Britons have been brainwashed to obey instead of fighting for their human rights
Elon Musk responds to post calling for the murder of Erika Kirk, widow of Charlie Kirk: 'Either we fight back or they will kill us'
Czech Republic signs €1.34 billion contract for Leopard 2A8 main battle tanks with delivery from 2028
USA: Office Depot Employees Refused to Print Poster in Memory of Charlie Kirk – and Were Fired
Proposed U.S. Bill Would Allow Civil Suits Against Judges Who Release Repeat Violent Offenders
Penske Media Sues Google Over “AI Overviews,” Claiming It Uses Journalism Without Consent and Destroys Traffic
Indian Student Engineers Propose “Project REBIRTH” to Protect Aircraft from Crashes Using AI, Airbags and Smart Materials
French Debt Downgrade Piles Pressure on Macron’s New Prime Minister
US and UK Near Tech, Nuclear and Whisky Deals Ahead of Trump Trip
One in Three Europeans Now Uses TikTok, According to the Chinese Tech Giant
Could AI Nursing Robots Help Healthcare Staffing Shortages?
NATO Deploys ‘Eastern Sentry’ After Russian Drones Violate Polish Airspace
Anesthesiologist Left Operation Mid-Surgery to Have Sex with Nurse
Tens of Thousands of Young Chinese Get Up Every Morning and Go to Work Where They Do Nothing
The New Life of Novak Djokovic
The German Owner of Politico Mathias Döpfner Eyes Further U.S. Media Expansion After Axel Springer Restructuring
Suspect Arrested: Utah Man in Custody for Charlie Kirk’s Fatal Shooting
In a politically motivated trial: Bolsonaro Sentenced to 27 Years for Plotting Coup After 2022 Defeat
German police raid AfD lawmaker’s offices in inquiry over Chinese payments
Turkish authorities seize leading broadcaster amid fraud and tax investigation
Volkswagen launches aggressive strategy to fend off Chinese challenge in Europe’s EV market
ChatGPT CEO signals policy to alert authorities over suicidal youth after teen’s death
The British legal mafia hit back: Banksy mural of judge beating protester is scrubbed from London court
Surpassing Musk: Larry Ellison becomes the richest man in the world
Embarrassment for Starmer: He fired the ambassador photographed on Epstein’s 'pedophile island'
Manhunt after 'skilled sniper' shot Charlie Kirk. Footage: Suspect running on rooftop during panic
Effective Protest Results: Nepal’s Prime Minister Resigns as Youth-Led Unrest Shakes the Nation
Qatari prime minister says Netanyahu ‘killed any hope’ for Israeli hostages
King Charles and Prince Harry Share First In-Person Moment in 19 Months
Starmer Establishes Economic ‘Budget Board’ to Centralise Policy and Rebuild Business Trust
France Erupts in Mass ‘Block Everything’ Protests on New PM’s First Day
Poland Shoots Down Russian Drones in Airspace Violation During Ukraine Attack
Brazilian police say ex-President Bolsonaro had planned to flee to Argentina seeking asylum
Trinidad Leader Applauds U.S. Naval Strike and Advocates Forceful Action Against Traffickers
Kim Jong Un Oversees Final Test of New High-Thrust Solid-Fuel Rocket Engine
Apple Introduces Ultra-Thin iPhone Air, Enhanced 17 Series and New Health-Focused Wearables
Macron Appoints Sébastien Lecornu as Prime Minister Amid Budget Crisis and Political Turmoil
Supreme Court temporarily allows Trump to pause billions in foreign aid
Charlie Sheen says his father, Martin Sheen, turned him in to the police: 'The greatest betrayal possible'
Vatican hosts first Catholic LGBTQ pilgrimage
×