London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Jul 23, 2025

Fall in England’s GCSE grades signals a return to pre-pandemic normality

Fall in England’s GCSE grades signals a return to pre-pandemic normality

The hard work and resilience of teachers and pupils to reach this point is the most impressive result of all

This summer’s GCSE results are the first from examinations in three years. Results are significantly lower than last year but we should not read anything into that. After two years of grades increasing with the use of teacher-assessed grades, the government signalled its intentions early that we should begin the process of returning to pre-pandemic grade distributions. In September, the qualifications regulator, Ofqual, announced results would be around the midpoint of those in 2019 and 2021.

This is exactly what we have seen in today’s data. The proportion of entries from 16-year-olds awarded a grade 4 or above is down from 79% last year to 75% today, and the proportion getting the higher grades (grade 7 and above), which peaked at 30% in 2021, has fallen to 27% this year.


But on average, that means results are still about a fifth of a grade above where they were in 2019. This, along with a number of mitigations ahead of exams such as optional topics in some subjects, struck a balance between fairness across different cohorts, whilst recognising the level of disruption experienced by those students getting their results today. Remember, this is a group of young people who have not had a year at school that was not affected by the pandemic in some way since they were in year 8. The hard work and resilience of this cohort and their teachers to get through to today is surely the most impressive result of all.

Away from the headline figures, there has been data published today that gives us a better understanding of what has happened in schools over the course of the pandemic. Results from the national reference tests in English and mathematics, which are sat by a representative sample of year 11 students, provide a good way of tracking standards over time. In English, results have held up, despite the effect of the pandemic, with no statistically significant change in outcomes. The same cannot be said for mathematics, where there have been falls across the attainment distribution.

The breakdown of results by region continues to reflect the geographic disparities in pupil outcomes, with those in London outperforming those elsewhere. A third of grades awarded to pupils in London on Thursday were at grade 7 or above, whereas in the north-west and Yorkshire and the Humber it was under a quarter. These differences have grown slightly since 2019. We cannot yet say whether this is as a direct result of the pandemic, but our own analysis of learning loss for younger pupils did highlight that the pandemic’s effects on education were felt more acutely in parts of the north and the Midlands than in London.


But whether it is the pandemic or longstanding differences in outcomes, it means a pupil opening their GCSE results in London was considerably more likely to receive grade 7s than a pupil in the north. Boris Johnson’s rhetoric about levelling up opportunity at the start of his time in office has, for now at least, not translated into a more equitable education system.

The way the school system has dealt with the challenges thrown its way over the last two years is extraordinary. But the challenges continue, and as we move into the new school year, among everything else, school leaders are scratching their heads about how they are going to meet increased energy and staff costs within already stretched budgets. The arrival of a new prime minister in the coming weeks could also mean the appointment of a new secretary of state for education, the fifth in the last year. What are the chances they will still be in post to comment on GCSE results next summer? And crucially, if they are, what will they have done to help schools through another difficult year?

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
The Podcaster Who Accidentally Revealed He Earns Over $10 Million a Year
Trump Announces $550 Billion Japanese Investment and New Trade Agreements with Indonesia and the Philippines
US Treasury Secretary Calls for Institutional Review of Federal Reserve Amid AI‑Driven Growth Expectations
UK Government Considers Dropping Demand for Apple Encryption Backdoor
Severe Flooding in South Korea Claims Lives Amid Ongoing Rescue Operations
Japanese Man Discovers Family Connection Through DNA Testing After Decades of Separation
Russia Signals Openness to Ukraine Peace Talks Amid Escalating Drone Warfare
Switzerland Implements Ban on Mammography Screening
Japanese Prime Minister Vows to Stay After Coalition Loses Upper House Majority
Pogacar Extends Dominance with Stage Fifteen Triumph at Tour de France
CEO Resigns Amid Controversy Over Relationship with HR Executive
Man Dies After Being Pulled Into MRI Machine Due to Metal Chain in New York Clinic
NVIDIA Achieves $4 Trillion Valuation Amid AI Demand
US Revokes Visas of Brazilian Corrupted Judges Amid Fake Bolsonaro Investigation
U.S. Congress Approves Rescissions Act Cutting Federal Funding for NPR and PBS
North Korea Restricts Foreign Tourist Access to New Seaside Resort
Brazil's Supreme Court Imposes Radical Restrictions on Former President Bolsonaro
Centrist Criticism of von der Leyen Resurfaces as she Survives EU Confidence Vote
Judge Criticizes DOJ Over Secrecy in Dropping Charges Against Gang Leader
Apple Closes $16.5 Billion Tax Dispute With Ireland
Von der Leyen Faces Setback Over €2 Trillion EU Budget Proposal
UK and Germany Collaborate on Global Military Equipment Sales
Trump Plans Over 10% Tariffs on African and Caribbean Nations
Flying Taxi CEO Reclaims Billionaire Status After Stock Surge
Epstein Files Deepen Republican Party Divide
Zuckerberg Faces $8 Billion Privacy Lawsuit From Meta Shareholders
FIFA Pressured to Rethink World Cup Calendar Due to Climate Change
SpaceX Nears $400 Billion Valuation With New Share Sale
Microsoft, US Lab to Use AI for Faster Nuclear Plant Licensing
Trump Walks Back Talk of Firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell
Zelensky Reshuffles Cabinet to Win Support at Home and in Washington
"Can You Hit Moscow?" Trump Asked Zelensky To Make Putin "Feel The Pain"
Irish Tech Worker Detained 100 days by US Authorities for Overstaying Visa
Dimon Warns on Fed Independence as Trump Administration Eyes Powell’s Succession
Church of England Removes 1991 Sexuality Guidelines from Clergy Selection
Superman Franchise Achieves Success with Latest Release
Hungary's Viktor Orban Rejects Agreements on Illegal Migration
Jeff Bezos Considers Purchasing Condé Nast as a Wedding Gift
Ghislaine Maxwell Says She’s Ready to Testify Before Congress on Epstein’s Criminal Empire
Bal des Pompiers: A Celebration of Community and Firefighter Culture in France
FBI Chief Kash Patel Denies Resignation Speculations Amid Epstein List Controversy
Air India Pilot’s Mental Health Records Under Scrutiny
Google Secures Windsurf AI Coding Team in $2.4 Billion Licence Deal
Jamie Dimon Warns Europe Is Losing Global Competitiveness and Flags Market Complacency
South African Police Minister Suspended Amid Organised Crime Allegations
Nvidia CEO Claims Chinese Military Reluctance to Use US AI Technology
Hong Kong Advances Digital Asset Strategy to Address Economic Challenges
Australia Rules Out Pre‑commitment of Troops, Reinforces Defence Posture Amid US‑China Tensions
Martha Wells Says Humanity Still Far from True Artificial Intelligence
Nvidia Becomes World’s First Four‑Trillion‑Dollar Company Amid AI Boom
×