London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Saturday, Sep 12, 2026

ExxonMobil: Oil giant predicted climate change in 1970s - scientists

ExxonMobil: Oil giant predicted climate change in 1970s - scientists

One of the world's largest oil companies accurately forecast how climate change would cause global temperature to rise as long ago as the 1970s, researchers claim.

ExxonMobil's private research predicted how burning fossil fuels would warm the planet but the company publicly denied the link, they suggest.

The academics analysed data in the company's internal documents.

ExxonMobil denied the allegations.

"This issue has come up several times in recent years and, in each case, our answer is the same: those who talk about how "Exxon Knew" are wrong in their conclusions," the company told BBC News.

Corporations including ExxonMobil have made billions from selling fossil fuels that release emissions that scientists, governments and the UN say cause global warming.

The findings suggest that ExxonMobil's predictions were often more accurate than even world-leading Nasa scientists.

"It really underscores the stark hypocrisy of ExxonMobil leadership, who knew that their own scientists were doing this very high quality modelling work and had access to that privileged information while telling the rest of us that climate models were bunk," Naomi Oreskes, professor of the history of science at Harvard University, told BBC News.

The findings are a "smoking gun", suggests co-author Geoffrey Supran, associate professor of environmental science and policy at the University of Miami.

"Our analysis allows us for the first time to actually put a number on what Exxon knew, which is that the burning of their fossil fuel products was going to heat the planet by about 0.2C of warming every decade," he said.

Researchers have never before quantified the scientific evidence in ExxonMobil's documents, he says.

In response, ExxonMobil pointed to a 2019 US court ruling that concluded: "ExxonMobil executives and employees were uniformly committed to rigorously discharging their duties in the most comprehensive and meticulous manner possible."

"ExxonMobil is committed to being part of the solution to climate change and the risks it poses," a spokesperson said.


A chart that researchers say compares ExxonMobil's predictions of temperature rise with actual temperature increase

"Their excellent climate modelling was at least comparable in performance to one of the most influential and well-regarded climate scientists of modern history," Prof Supran said, comparing ExxonMobil's work to Nasa's James Hansen who sounded the alarm on climate in 1988.

Prof Oreskes said the findings show that ExxonMobil "knowingly misled" the public and governments. "They had all this information at their disposal but they said very, very different things in public," she explained.

Previous investigations have unearthed Exxon documents that suggest the company sought to spread doubt about the science. One internal paper set out the "Exxon position" to "emphasise the uncertainty in scientific conclusions" about the greenhouse effect.

The research, published in the academic journal Science, also suggests that ExxonMobil had reasonable estimates for how emissions would need to be reduced in order to avoid the worst effects of climate change in a world warmed by 2C or more.

Their scientists also correctly rejected the theory that an ice age was coming at a time when other researchers were still debating the prospect.

Prof Oreskes and Prof Supran carried out the research after journalists in 2015 uncovered evidence suggesting ExxonMobil's knew about climate change, but were accused by ExxonMobil of "cherry-picking" the truth.

They plotted scientific data in more than 100 publications from Exxon and Exxon Mobil between 1977 and 2014 to calculate their predictions of global temperature rise.

Prof Oreskes suggests that it showed the company was internally using climate science when publicly it called the models "speculative" or "bad science".

The findings add to ongoing pressure on the company over what it knew about climate change. Campaigners allege it spread misinformation in order to protect its business interests in fossil fuels and are suing the company in a number of US courts.

In May a court in Massachusetts, US ruled that ExxonMobil must face trial over accusations it lied about climate change.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Reviews Nationwide Emergency Alert Tests After Systems Meet Reliability Targets
UK Seeks Faster Rail Links Across Northern Industrial Corridors
British Business Bank Allocates £150 Million for High-Growth Companies in Northern England
BBC Warns Staff Strikes Are Possible Amid Pay Dispute and £500 Million Savings Drive
UK Backs Short Extension of UN Sudan Sanctions Regime
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Defends Early Prison Release Reforms and Growth Strategy
Reform UK Faces Scrutiny Over Alleged Effort to Circumvent Foreign Donation Rules
UK Analysts Warn Tax Rises or Spending Cuts May Be Needed to Preserve Fiscal Headroom
Jaguar Land Rover Plans Up to 4,000 Job Cuts in £1.7 Billion Cost-Saving Drive
UK Chancellor Warns of Difficult October Budget as Borrowing Costs Rise
UK Declares Israeli Occupation of West Bank Unlawful and Expands Sanctions
UK House of Commons Rejects Assisted Dying Bill for England and Wales
English Councils to Gain Power to Introduce Tourist Taxes by 2028
Kemi Badenoch Reshuffles Conservative Shadow Cabinet
Firefighters Make Progress Containing Major Wildfires in South Wales
John Lewis Partnership Reports £124 Million Loss
Study Says UK AI Data Centres Will Create Only a Quarter of Forecast Jobs
UK Government Considers Higher Industrial Water Prices Amid Supply Pressures
Andy Burnham Holds First Call With Donald Trump as UK Prime Minister
NHS Records Busiest Summer on Record as Heatwaves Drive Hospital Admissions
Home Secretary Orders Police Crackdown on Far-Right Anti-Migrant Vigilantes
UK Supreme Court Rules Northern Ireland Religious Education Curriculum Breaches Human Rights Standards
Markets Price in Four Bank of England Rate Rises by Next Summer
House of Commons Prepares Free Vote on Assisted Dying Bill
UK Government Bans Trade With Israeli Settlements in Occupied Territories
UK Economy Grows 0.4% in July as Artificial Intelligence Investment Supports Expansion
Andy Burnham Becomes UK Prime Minister After Keir Starmer Resigns
John Lewis Partnership Loss Widens to £124 Million
UK Government to Put White Working-Class Social Mobility at Centre of Equality Policy
McLaren Plans £450 Million Technology Investment Creating 1,000 UK Jobs
UK Chancellor Faces Calls for Wealth Taxes and Public Ownership in Autumn Budget
English Mayors to Gain Powers to Impose Uncapped Overnight Tourist Taxes
JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon Warns UK Government Against Bank Windfall Taxes
UK Air Traffic Control Outage Cancels More Than 2,000 Flights
UK Imposes Trade Ban on Israeli Settlements in the West Bank
UK Borrowing Costs Surge as Middle East Tensions Push Long-Term Gilt Yields to Highest Since 1998
Buckingham Palace Says Prince Harry and Meghan Will Not Resume Official Royal Duties
UK Treasury Faces Calls to Scrap £100,000 Childcare Support Threshold
Trades Union Congress Urges Labour Government to Rewrite Migration Policy
Riot Police Deployed After Anti-Migrant Protests Turn Violent in Portsmouth
UK Considers Replacing Some Disability Cash Payments With Direct Services
JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon Warns UK Chancellor Against Higher Banking Taxes
UK Announces New Sanctions Targeting Israeli Settlements in West Bank
Metropolitan Police Investigate Alleged Illegal Donations to Reform UK
UK Charges Wiltshire Man With Assisting Russian Intelligence
UK Orders Urgent Review After Air Traffic Failure Cancels More Than 2,000 Flights
Merz Rebukes AfD Expansion in Saxony-Anhalt
King Charles Confirms Prince Harry and Meghan Will Remain Private Citizens
Labour Selects Former Child Refugee for By-Election in Keir Starmer’s Former Seat
Foreign Private Equity Accelerates Takeovers of London-Listed Industrial Companies
×