London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Jul 31, 2025

Evergrande can't pay its debts. China is scrambling to contain the fallout

Evergrande can't pay its debts. China is scrambling to contain the fallout

Evergrande has defaulted on its debt. Now Beijing is intervening to prevent a disorderly collapse of the indebted real estate group that could wreak havoc on the world's second biggest economy.

Fitch Ratings on Thursday declared that the embattled property developer has entered "restricted default," reflecting the company's inability to pay overdue interest earlier this week on two dollar bonds. The payments were due a month ago, and grace periods lapsed Monday.

Evergrande's apparent failure to pay that interest has revived fears about the future of the company, which is reeling under more than $300 billion of total liabilities. Evergrande is massive — it has about 200,000 employees, raked in more than $110 billion in sales last year, and owns more than 1,300 developments in more than 280 cities, according to the company.

Analysts have long been concerned that a collapse could trigger wider risks for China's property market, hurting homeowners and the broader financial system. Real estate and related industries account for as much as 30% of GDP.

Chinese authorities have so far downplayed the prospect of spillover risks.

"China's leadership is attempting to play it cool, but the circumstances surrounding Evergrande's downward spiral raises serious questions about [Chinese President] Xi Jinping's stewardship over China's rapidly cooling economy," said Craig Singleton, an adjunct fellow in the China Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a research institute based in Washington, D.C.

There's already plenty of evidence that Beijing is taking a leading role in guiding Evergrande through a restructuring of its debt and sprawling business operations.

The local government in Guangdong province, where Evergrande is based, said late last week that it would send officials into the firm to oversee risk management, strengthen internal controls and maintain normal operations.

And earlier this week, Evergrande announced it would set up a risk management committee, including government representatives, to focus on "mitigating and eliminating" future risks. Among its members are top officials from major state-owned enterprises in Guangdong, as well as an executive from a major bad debt manager owned by the central government.

Chinese authorities have taken other steps as well. The central bank on Monday announced that it would pump $188 billion into the economy, apparently to counter the real estate slump.

"These latest interventions, by both the central government and officials in Guangdong, suggest Chinese officials now begrudgingly accept that Evergrande is, in fact, 'too big to fail,'" Singleton said.

Global investors may 'take a hair cut'


The massive restructuring is going to come with some pain, at least for global bond holders.

Beijing has made it clear that its priority is protecting the thousands of Chinese people who have bought unfinished apartments, along with construction workers, suppliers and small investors. It also wants to limit the risk of other real estate firms going under. Investor fears over Evergrande's default have pushed up financing costs for other developers, as yields on offshore Chinese corporate debt surge.

At the same time, the government has been trying for more than a year to rein in excessive borrowing by developers — and so won't want to dilute that message.

That means the government may be "happy to see the firm itself go under and investors take a haircut," said Louis Kuijs, head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics, in a research note on Friday.

Chinese regulators have blamed Evergrande's crisis on the company's leaders. Its problems were the result of "poor management and blind expansion," the central bank and the country's securities regulator said Monday in public statements, reiterating previous criticisms.

Yi's comments on Thursday, made during a video speech to a forum in Hong Kong, underscore the government's priorities. He noted that Evergrande's problems would be handled in "a market-oriented way."

That "reinforces the ongoing stance from authorities of not turning to any bailout," said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist for IG Group.

Spillover to growth


It's a "delicate balancing act" to allow Evergrande to fail while minimizing any economic or financial impact, Kujis said, especially given the broader downturn in real estate that has already seen several other developers default, including Kaisa Group this week.

New home prices in China fell in October for the second consecutive month, according to figures from the National Bureau of Statistics. The fall in September was the first in six years on a month-on-month basis.

A major slowdown in the property sector, along with other factors, could drag China's GDP growth next year down to 4.3%, according to Ting Lu, Nomura's chief China economist. That's much lower than the firm's estimated growth for 2021 of 7.8%.

During an online conference Friday, Lu also warned that the government shouldn't suddenly reverse its curbs on real estate finance. Such a turnaround would hurt Beijing's long-term goals, he added, pointing to its desire to reduce the economy's reliance on property and divert resources away from property into other sectors, such as tech.

Kuijs from Oxford Economics expects Beijing to take targeted policy measures for homeowners, troubled developers, or banks that are exposed to debt risks. He suggested such moves could include making it easier for developers to raise funds on the capital market, adjusting land policies, and increasing the construction of rental units.

"We also expect broader easing of fiscal and monetary policy," he said. "And it is likely the government will take steps to contain ripple effects in the financial system, including possibly ring-fencing banks particularly exposed to developers in trouble."

Singleton warned, though, that the real estate crisis remains a looming threat for China.

"The possibility of contagion in other parts of China's vast economy remains very real," he said. "And, it is on this issue where China's central bank faces its biggest constraint — while it may be able to contain the financial implications from a housing default, it cannot offset the housing market's impact on China's real economy."

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Former Judge Charged After Drunk Driving Crash Kills Comedian in Brazil
Jeff Bezos hasn’t paid a dollar in taxes for decades. He makes billions and pays $0 in taxes, LEGALLY
China Increases Use of Exit Bans Amid Rising U.S. Tensions
IMF Upgrades Global Growth Forecast as Weaker Dollar Supports Outlook
Procter & Gamble to Raise U.S. Prices to Offset One‑Billion‑Dollar Tariff Cost
House Republicans Move to Defund OECD Over Global Tax Dispute
Botswana Seeks Controlling Stake in De Beers as Anglo American Prepares Exit
Trump Administration Proposes Repeal of Obama‑Era Endangerment Finding, Dismantling Regulatory Basis for CO₂ Emissions Limits
France Opens Criminal Investigation into X Over Algorithm Manipulation Allegations
A family has been arrested in the UK for displaying the British flag
Mel Gibson refuses to work with Robert De Niro, saying, "Keep that woke clown away from me."
Trump Steamrolls EU in Landmark Trade Win: US–EU Trade Deal Imposes 15% Tariff on European Imports
ChatGPT CEO Sam Altman says people share personal info with ChatGPT but don’t know chats can be used as court evidence in legal cases.
The British propaganda channel BBC News lies again.
Deputy attorney general's second day of meeting with Ghislaine Maxwell has concluded
Controversial March in Switzerland Features Men Dressed in Nazi Uniforms
Politics is a good business: Barack Obama’s Reported Net Worth Growth, 1990–2025
Thai Civilian Death Toll Rises to 12 in Cambodian Cross-Border Attacks
TSUNAMI: Trump Just Crossed the Rubicon—And There’s No Turning Back
Over 120 Criminal Cases Dismissed in Boston Amid Public Defender Shortage
UN's Top Court Declares Environmental Protection a Legal Obligation Under International Law
"Crazy Thing": OpenAI's Sam Altman Warns Of AI Voice Fraud Crisis In Banking
The Podcaster Who Accidentally Revealed He Earns Over $10 Million a Year
Trump Announces $550 Billion Japanese Investment and New Trade Agreements with Indonesia and the Philippines
US Treasury Secretary Calls for Institutional Review of Federal Reserve Amid AI‑Driven Growth Expectations
UK Government Considers Dropping Demand for Apple Encryption Backdoor
Severe Flooding in South Korea Claims Lives Amid Ongoing Rescue Operations
Japanese Man Discovers Family Connection Through DNA Testing After Decades of Separation
Russia Signals Openness to Ukraine Peace Talks Amid Escalating Drone Warfare
Switzerland Implements Ban on Mammography Screening
Japanese Prime Minister Vows to Stay After Coalition Loses Upper House Majority
Pogacar Extends Dominance with Stage Fifteen Triumph at Tour de France
CEO Resigns Amid Controversy Over Relationship with HR Executive
Man Dies After Being Pulled Into MRI Machine Due to Metal Chain in New York Clinic
NVIDIA Achieves $4 Trillion Valuation Amid AI Demand
US Revokes Visas of Brazilian Corrupted Judges Amid Fake Bolsonaro Investigation
U.S. Congress Approves Rescissions Act Cutting Federal Funding for NPR and PBS
North Korea Restricts Foreign Tourist Access to New Seaside Resort
Brazil's Supreme Court Imposes Radical Restrictions on Former President Bolsonaro
Centrist Criticism of von der Leyen Resurfaces as she Survives EU Confidence Vote
Judge Criticizes DOJ Over Secrecy in Dropping Charges Against Gang Leader
Apple Closes $16.5 Billion Tax Dispute With Ireland
Von der Leyen Faces Setback Over €2 Trillion EU Budget Proposal
UK and Germany Collaborate on Global Military Equipment Sales
Trump Plans Over 10% Tariffs on African and Caribbean Nations
Flying Taxi CEO Reclaims Billionaire Status After Stock Surge
Epstein Files Deepen Republican Party Divide
Zuckerberg Faces $8 Billion Privacy Lawsuit From Meta Shareholders
FIFA Pressured to Rethink World Cup Calendar Due to Climate Change
SpaceX Nears $400 Billion Valuation With New Share Sale
×