London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Tuesday, Aug 19, 2025

Europe's biggest economy is heading into lockdown. Will recession follow?

Europe's biggest economy is heading into lockdown. Will recession follow?

Germany, the fourth largest economy in the world, is heading into a national lockdown that could send it into another recession — a major warning as countries like the United States try to battle a spike in coronavirus cases over the winter.

What's happening: Chancellor Angela Merkel said Sunday that Germany will go into a "hard" lockdown starting this week and continuing through the Christmas period. Non-essential shops and schools will be shut starting on Wednesday, and Christmas gatherings will be reduced from 10 people to only five from two different households.

The announcement comes after Germany recorded nearly 30,000 new coronavirus infections and almost 600 deaths within 24 hours on Friday, surpassing records.

Economy Minister Peter Altmaier said in an interview Monday that he thinks the country can avert another recession thanks to government support measures. Reuters reports that the number of people that will work reduced hours and have wages subsidized by the state is expected to rise.

"It is possible, if we act wisely, to once again preserve the economic substance of the country," Altmaier said. But he stressed that this "depends very decisively on the further course of events."

Given the extent of new restrictions, economists are worried.

"Germany must brace itself for a second recession," Dr. Jörg Krämer, Commerzbank's chief economist, told clients Monday.

Big picture: Germany isn't the only country grappling with a spiraling health situation. South Korea has also sounded the alarm about rising cases and could announce new social distancing measures. And London's mayor is asking the government to close schools for the holidays earlier than planned given a surge in infections in the city.

In the United States, as medical workers prepare to distribute the first doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine, the outlook for infections and hospitalizations remains extremely concerning. The country is nearing 300,000 deaths after hitting the 200,000 mark in September.

It's a reminder that while the rollout of vaccines is an important moment in a devastating pandemic, it won't be an immediate cure for the twin health and economic crises.

"After being the relative European success story in wave one, Germany has struggled over the last few weeks," Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid said in a research note Monday. The new lockdown, he said, would deal a short-term "blow to activity and confidence, even if the damage will be limited by knowledge of the imminent vaccine rollout."

'Blank check' companies have billions to spend in 2021


On Wall Street, 2020 has become known as the year of the SPAC.

Special purpose acquisition companies, or so-called "blank check" firms tasked with cutting deals, have been all the rage. These companies raise funds from investors by going public, and then have two years to put that money to work.

According to Goldman Sachs, 206 SPACs have raised a record $70 billion in IPO proceeds this year, a fivefold increase from 2019. A record number of SPACs also announced or closed merger deals.

Remember: Companies like DraftKings and electric truck maker Lordstown Motors went public in 2020 by merging with SPACs, a faster route than a traditional IPO. Shares of both companies have skyrocketed since then, helping to drum up interest in the process.

The momentum is expected to continue into 2021, with a wall of capital still waiting to be deployed.

Goldman estimates that $61 billion in equity IPO proceeds raised by 205 SPACs "is currently searching for acquisition targets." That cash needs to find a home in 2021 or 2022, or it will have to be returned to investors.

So far, electric and autonomous car companies have been among the most popular SPAC targets. But there's only so many of those firms out there, which means the scope of interest will need to widen.

"[There's an] imbalance between supply and demand, with more capital being raised and less obvious targets," Dirk Albersmeier, JPMorgan's co-head of global mergers and acquisitions, told me.

As competition for US takeover targets heats up, more of that money could head to Europe and Asia, Albersmeier noted.

Watch this space: Massive demand for high-growth companies is already reigniting conversation about whether valuations are too stretched and heading for a fall. Demand among SPACs may only feed those fears.

With so many SPACs focused on technology, and with a limited time frame to deploy capital, would-be buyers could end up "bidding themselves up," Albersmeier said.

Pfizer and Moderna will cash in on vaccine sales


The authorization of Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech's Covid-19 vaccine in the United States is a momentous occasion for science, the economy and humanity. It's also a big moneymaker for the companies that developed the vaccines, my CNN Business colleague Matt Egan reports.

Wall Street analysts project that Pfizer and Moderna (MRNA) — whose vaccine is next in line to be reviewed by regulators — will generate $32 billion in Covid-19 vaccine revenue next year alone.

That doesn't take into account the goodwill boost these companies will receive by helping bring an end to the worst pandemic in a century. The effect is magnified for Moderna, a young biotech company that few people had heard of before 2020.

Investor insight: Pfizer's stock is up just 10.7% this year, trailing the S&P 500's 13.4% gain. But shares of German partner BioNTech, which trade in New York, have jumped more than 275%, valuing the company at $30.7 billion.

Moderna's stock has skyrocketed 702% this year, giving the firm a market cap of $62.1 billion. Investors see the efficacy and safety results for its coronavirus vaccine as a validation of Moderna's entire pipeline of products. They're increasingly confident it won't be the company's only blockbuster.

But profits from vaccine sales are also drawing criticism. More than 1.6 million people have now died of Covid-19 globally.

"It is absolutely wrong for drug companies like Pfizer and Moderna to profiteer, and for their executives to make egregious personal fortunes, off of Covid-19 vaccines that have been so heavily subsidized and supported by American taxpayers," said Eli Zupnick, a spokesman for Accountable.US, a progressive watchdog and patient advocacy group.

Up next


OPEC is due to release its monthly report after producers agreed to start pumping more oil in January.

Coming tomorrow: The European Commission is expected to publish sweeping new regulations targeting Facebook (FB), Google (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL).

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Taylor Swift on the Way to the Super Bowl? All the Clues Stirring Up Fans
Dogfights in the Skies: Airbus on Track to Overtake Boeing and Claim Aviation Supremacy
Tim Cook Promises an AI Revolution at Apple: "One of the Most Significant Technologies of Our Generation"
Apple Expands Social Media Presence in China With RedNote Account Ahead of iPhone 17 Launch
Are AI Data Centres the Infrastructure of the Future or the Next Crisis?
Cambridge Dictionary Adds 'Skibidi,' 'Delulu,' and 'Tradwife' Amid Surge of Online Slang
Bill Barr Testifies No Evidence Implicated Trump in Epstein Case; DOJ Set to Release Records
Zelenskyy Returns to White House Flanked by European Allies as Trump Pressures Land-Swap Deal with Putin
The CEO Who Replaced 80% of Employees for the AI Revolution: "I Would Do It Again"
Emails Worth Billions: How Airlines Generate Huge Profits
Character.ai Bets on Future of AI Companionship
China Ramps Up Tax Crackdown on Overseas Investments
Japanese Office Furniture Maker Expands into Bomb Shelter Market
Intel Shares Surge on Possible U.S. Government Investment
Hurricane Erin Threatens U.S. East Coast with Dangerous Surf
EU Blocks Trade Statement Over Digital Rule Dispute
EU Sends Record Aid as Spain Battles Wildfires
JPMorgan Plans New Canary Wharf Tower
Zelenskyy and his allies say they will press Trump on security guarantees
Beijing is moving into gold and other assets, diversifying away from the dollar
Escalating Clashes in Serbia as Anti-Government Protests Spread Nationwide
The Drought in Britain and the Strange Request from the Government to Delete Old Emails
Category 5 Hurricane in the Caribbean: 'Catastrophic Storm' with Winds of 255 km/h
"No, Thanks": The Mathematical Genius Who Turned Down 1.5 Billion Dollars from Zuckerberg
The surprising hero, the ugly incident, and the criticism despite victory: "Liverpool’s defense exposed in full"
Digital Humans Move Beyond Sci-Fi: From Virtual DJs to AI Customer Agents
YouTube will start using AI to guess your age. If it’s wrong, you’ll have to prove it
Jellyfish Swarm Triggers Shutdown at Gravelines Nuclear Power Station in Northern France
OpenAI’s ‘PhD-Level’ ChatGPT 5 Stumbles, Struggles to Even Label a Map
Zelenskyy to Visit Washington after Trump–Putin Summit Yields No Agreement
High-Stakes Trump-Putin Summit on Ukraine Underway in Alaska
The World Economic Forum has cleared Klaus Schwab of “material wrongdoing” after a law firm conducted a review into potential misconduct of the institution’s founder
The Mystery Captivating the Internet: Where Has the Social Media Star Gone?
Man Who Threw Sandwich at Federal Agents in Washington Charged with Assault – Identified as Justice Department Employee
A Computer That Listens, Sees, and Acts: What to Expect from Windows 12
Iranian Protection Offers Chinese Vehicle Shipments a Cost Advantage over Japanese and Korean Makers
UK has added India to a list of countries whose nationals, convicted of crimes, will face immediate deportation without the option to appeal from within the UK
Southwest Airlines Apologizes After 'Accidentally Forgetting' Two Blind Passengers at New Orleans Airport and Faces Criticism Over Poor Service for Passengers with Disabilities
Russian Forces Advance on Donetsk Front, Cutting Key Supply Routes Near Pokrovsk
It’s Not the Algorithm: New Study Claims Social Networks Are Fundamentally Broken
Sixty-Year-Old Claims: “My Biological Age Is Twenty-One.” Want the Same? Remember the Name Spermidine
Saudi Arabia accelerates renewables to curb domestic oil use
U.S. Investigation Reports No Russian Interference in Romanian Election First Round
Oasis Reunion Tour Linked to Temporary Rise in UK Inflation
Musk Alleges Apple Favors OpenAI in App Store Rankings
Denmark Revives EU ‘Chat Control’ Proposal for Encrypted Message Scanning
US Teen Pilot Reaches Deal to Leave Chile After Unauthorized Antarctic Landing
Trump considers lawsuit against Powell over Fed renovation costs
Trump Criticizes Goldman Sachs Over Tariff Cost Forecasts
Perplexity makes unsolicited $34.5 billion all-cash offer for Google’s Chrome browser
×