London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Jul 10, 2025

Elections reflected Britain’s deep divisions over Brexit and Scotland’s future

Elections reflected Britain’s deep divisions over Brexit and Scotland’s future

Conservatives ride high in leave-voting areas of England, but face a challenge from Scottish nationalism
The Conservatives are on a high but are at risk of presiding over the breakup of Britain; Labour has yet to develop an effective political strategy to challenge Boris Johnson, while the Liberal Democrats are still stuck in the doldrums.

These were the key messages that emerged from Thursday’s bumper crop of local and devolved elections, whose results have now all been declared.

Typically, voters give the incumbent government a kicking in local elections – they represent a chance to protest without letting the opposition in. However, the Conservatives are enjoying a six-point lead in the opinion polls and that lead was fully reflected in the local ballot boxes.

The Conservatives made nearly 300 gains of English council seats, while Labour lost more than 250. Most of the turnover occurred where the elections should have been held last year but were postponed because of the pandemic. When they were last fought in 2016, Labour and the Conservatives were roughly even in the polls.

In contrast, the elections that should have been held this year were last fought in 2017, when the Conservatives had a double-digit lead. In these elections, there was actually a small swing to Labour – but that reflected how badly Labour did last time rather than provide evidence that the party had not done so badly after all.

The Conservative advance was much stronger in leave-voting areas than in remain-supporting ones. Rather than showing signs of disappearing, the Brexit division that led to the collapse of Labour’s red wall in 2019 was still very much in evidence.

That explains why, for example, Labour lost the (pro-Brexit) Hartlepool byelection and Durham county council, but had relatively little difficulty in getting Sadiq Khan reelected as mayor of (remain-voting) London and gained a new mayor in Cambridgeshire.

Labour has spent most of last year questioning Boris Johnson’s competence. That brought some dividends until the government came up trumps on vaccine delivery. At the same time, the party had hoped that now that Brexit was done, voters would put it behind them, too – but they have not.

The party has failed to develop a vision that poses a challenge to a Conservative government that is more interventionist than its predecessors, and which is happy to trumpet the benefits of Brexit. It might be wise to draw on the experience of the party in Wales, which largely withstood the Conservative tide and scored one of its best performances yet in a Senedd election.

Although the Liberal Democrats performed better in the local ballot boxes than their current standing in the polls, as they always do, they did little more than tread water. Their vote was up a point on 2016, but down one on 2017.

But if Johnson faces a weak opposition in Westminster, he is now confronted by a strong nationalist challenge in Scotland. Although the SNP narrowly failed to secure an overall majority at Holyrood, between them the nationalists and the Greens have a majority of 15 – and are pledged to hold another independence ballot.

The election results affirmed the message of the polls that Scotland is now divided down the middle on the independence question. A little more than half the constituency vote went to the three main unionist parties, while a little more than half of the list vote was secured by the three main nationalist parties.

This means that support in Scotland for staying in the UK is still significantly lower than it was before Boris Johnson embarked on a Brexit with which most voters in Scotland are out of sympathy. He now needs urgently to try to change their minds.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Severe Heatwave Claims 2,300 Lives Across Europe
NVIDIA Achieves Historic Milestone as First Company Valued at $4 Trillion
Declining Beer Consumption Signals Cultural Shift in Germany
Linda Yaccarino Steps Down as CEO of X After Two Years
US Imposes New Tariffs on Brazilian Exports Amid Political Tensions
Azerbaijan and Armenia are on the brink of a historic peace deal.
Emails Leaked: How Passenger Luggage Became a Side Income for Airport Workers
Polish MEP: “Dear Leftists - China is laughing at you, Russia is laughing, India is laughing”
BRICS Expands Membership with Indonesia and Ten New Partner Countries
Weinstein Victim’s Lawyer Says MeToo Movement Still Strong
U.S. Enacts Sweeping Tax and Spending Legislation Amid Trade Policy Shifts
Football Mourns as Diogo Jota and Brother André Silva Laid to Rest in Portugal
Labour Expected to Withdraw Support for Special Needs Funding Model
Leaked Audio Reveals Tory Aide Defending DEI Record
Elon Musk Founds a Party Following a Poll on X: "You Wanted It – You Got It!"
London Stock Exchange Faces Historic Low in Initial Public Offerings
A new online platform has emerged in the United Kingdom, specifically targeting Muslim men seeking virgin brides
Trump Celebrates Independence Day with B-2 Flyover and Signs Controversial Legislation
Boris Johnson Urges Conservatives to Ignore Farage
SNP Ordered to Update Single-Sex Space Guidance Within Days
Starmer Set to Reject Calls for Wealth Taxes
Stolen Century-Old Rolls-Royce Recovered After Hotel Theft
Macron Presses Starmer to Recognise Palestinian State
Labour Delayed Palestine Action Ban Over Riot Concerns
Swinney’s Tax Comments ‘Offensive to Scots’, Say Tories
High Street Retailers to Enforce Bans on Serial Shoplifters
Music Banned by Henry VIII to Be Performed After 500 Years
Steve Coogan Says Working Class Is Being ‘Ethnically Cleansed’
Home Office Admits Uncertainty Over Visa Overstayer Numbers
JD Vance Questions Mandelson Over Reform Party’s Rising Popularity
Macron to Receive Windsor Carriage Ride in Royal Gesture
Labour Accused of ‘Hammering’ Scots During First Year in Power
BBC Head of Music Stood Down Amid Bob Vylan Controversy
Corbyn Eyes Hard-Left Challenge to Starmer’s Leadership
London Tube Trains Suspended After Major Fire Erupts Nearby
Richard Kemp: I Felt Safer in Israel Under Attack Than in the UK
Cyclist Says Police Cited Human Rights Act for Riding No-Handed
China’s Central Bank Consults European Peers on Low-Rate Strategies
AI Raises Alarms Over Long-Term Job Security
Saudi Arabia Maintains Ties with Iran Despite Israel Conflict
Musk Battles to Protect Tesla Amid Trump Policy Threats
Air France-KLM Acquires Majority Stake in Scandinavian Airlines
UK Educators Sound Alarm on Declining Child Literacy
Shein Fined €40 Million in France Over Misleading Discounts
Brazil’s Lula Visits Kirchner During Argentina House Arrest
Trump Scores Legislative Win as House Passes Tax Reform Bill
Keir Starmer Faces Criticism After Rocky First Year in Power
DJI Launches Heavy-Duty Coaxial Quadcopter with 80 kg Lift Capacity
U.S. Senate Approves Major Legislation Dubbed the 'Big Beautiful Bill'
Largest Healthcare Fraud Takedown in U.S. History Announced by DOJ
×