London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Apr 02, 2026

El Nino Likely To Return, May Fuel Spike In Global Temperatures: UN Agency

El Nino Likely To Return, May Fuel Spike In Global Temperatures: UN Agency

A warming El Nino event may develop in the coming months, according to a new update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
A warming El Nino event may develop in the coming months, according to a new update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The El Nino event may develop after three consecutive years of an unusually stubborn and protracted La Nina, which influenced temperature and rainfall patterns in different parts of the world, WMO said in a statement.

However, while the return of El Nino is considered likely this will be proceeded by a period of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions, with 90 per cent probability, during March-May, the statement said.

The likelihood of ENSO neutral conditions continuing beyond May decreases slightly but remains high, with 80 per cent likelihood in April-June and 60 per cent in May-July, based on the model predictions and assessment from experts involved in producing the Update, it said.

The chances of El Nino developing, while low in the first half of the year, 15 per cent in April-June, gradually increases to 35 per cent in May-July, the statement said.

Long-lead forecasts for June-August indicate a much higher chance, 55 per cent, of El Nino developing but are subject to high uncertainty associated with predictions this time of the year, the so-called spring predictability barrier, it said.

"The first triple-dip La Nina of the 21st century is finally coming to an end. La Nina's cooling effect put a temporary brake on rising global temperatures, even though the past eight year period was the warmest on record," said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.

"If we do now enter an El Nino phase, this is likely to fuel another spike in global temperatures," said Mr Taalas.

The year 2016 is currently the warmest on record because of the combination of El Nino and climate change.

There is a 93 percent likelihood of at least one year until 2026 being the warmest on record. There is also a 50:50 chance of the global temperature temporarily reaching 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial era, according to a study last year by the UK's Met Office, which is WMO's lead centre for annual to decadal climate predictions.

The current La Nina began in September 2020 with a brief break in the boreal summer of 2021.

La Nina refers to the large-scale cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation.

It usually has the opposite impacts on weather and climate as El Nino in affected regions.

La Nina has been associated with the persistent drought in the Greater Horn of Africa and large parts of South America as well as above average rainfall in South East Asia and Australasia.

The El Nino and La Nina phenomenon occurs naturally. But it is taking place against a background of human-induced climate change, which is increasing global temperatures, affecting seasonal rainfall patterns, and making our weather more extreme.

El Nino and La Nina are major, but not the only, drivers of the Earth's climate system.

In addition to the long-established ENSO Update, WMO now also issues regular Global Seasonal Climate Updates (GSCU), which incorporate influences of the other major climate drivers such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole.

A return to near-normal ENSO conditions is predicted for the equatorial central and eastern Pacific, and warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures are generally predicted over other oceanic regions.

This contributes to widespread prediction of above-normal temperatures over land areas, according to the GSCU.

Even though La Nina is coming to an end we are likely to see latent impacts for some time to come and therefore some of the canonical rainfall impacts of La Nina may still continue.

The lingering impacts of multi-year La Nina is basically due to its long duration, and continuous circulation anomaly, which are different from the single-peak La Nina event.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
King Charles III Invited to Address Joint Session of U.S. Congress in Rare Diplomatic Honor
Debate Grows Over Whether Expanded North Sea Drilling Can Reduce UK Energy Bills
UK Faces Heightened Risk of Jet Fuel Shortages, Airline Chief Warns
UK Ends Police Investigations into Lawful Social Media Posts After Review Finds Overreach
Abramovich Moves to Establish Charity for Frozen Chelsea Sale Proceeds Amid UK Dispute
Starmer Reaffirms NATO Commitment While Responding to Trump’s Strategic Critique
UK Aid Reductions Raise Fears of Severe Human Impact Across Parts of Africa
UK Signals Renewed Push for EU Cooperation as Iran Conflict Reshapes Security Landscape
Bank of England Signals Caution as Bailey Advises Markets Against Expecting Rate Hikes
UK to Convene Global Coalition to Restore Shipping Through Strait of Hormuz
Trump Signals Possible NATO Reassessment, Emphasizes Stronger U.S. Strategic Autonomy
Australia Joins British-Led Efforts to Reopen Strait of Hormuz Amid Escalating Tensions
King Charles Plans US State Visit as UK Strengthens Ties with Trump Leadership
UK Regulator Launches Investigation Into Microsoft’s Business Software Practices
Kanye West Set for High-Profile Return to UK Stage at Wireless Festival
Trump Presses Europe to Strengthen Commitment as Iran Conflict Escalates
UK to Deploy Additional Troops to Middle East Amid Rising Regional Tensions
UK Authorities Face Claims of Heavy-Handed Measures in Monitoring Released Pro-Palestine Activists
Trump Calls on UK to Secure Its Own Energy as Iran Conflict Intensifies
Nigel Farage Declines Invitation to UK Conservative Conference Led by Liz Truss
Trump Warns Allies to Take Responsibility as Rift Deepens with UK and France Over Iran Conflict
How Britain’s Prime Minister Controls U.S. Bomber Access in Escalating Iran Conflict
Trump Urges Allies to Secure Their Own Oil Supplies as Hormuz Crisis Disrupts Global Energy
Russia Expels British Diplomat as UK Pushes Back Against Pressure
White House App Faces Scrutiny After Claims of Continuous User Location Tracking
BBC Faces Scrutiny Over Allegations of Paid Content Linked to Saudi Arabia
UK-France Coastal Patrol Agreement Nears Breakdown Amid Migration Pressures
UK Police Detain Pro-Palestine Activist Again Weeks After Bail Release
FTSE 100 Advances as Energy and Mining Shares Gain Amid Middle East Tensions
Eli Lilly Seeks UK Pricing Deal to Unlock Renewed Pharmaceutical Investment
Three Arrested in UK After Massive Cocaine Haul Discovered Hidden in Banana Shipment
UK Fuel Prices Poised for Further Surge Amid Global Energy Pressures
Apple Subsidiary Penalized by UK Authorities for Breach of Moscow Sanctions
Western Allies Intensify Coordinated Sanctions Strategy Against Russia
UK Lawmakers Face Criticism Over Renewed Push for Social Media Restrictions
Starmer Signals UK Crackdown on Addictive Social Media Features
Rising Costs Push One in Five UK Hospitality Businesses to the Brink of Closure
Man Arrested on Suspicion of Attempted Murder After Car Strikes Pedestrians in UK, Injuring Seven
Escalating Conflict Involving Iran Tightens Fiscal Pressures and Highlights UK Economic Vulnerabilities
UK Moves to Confront Russian ‘Shadow Fleet’ Operating in Its Waters
UK Housing Divide Deepens as Older Owners Hold Wealth While Under-30s Face Mounting Barriers
London Demonstration Calls on UK to Recognize Iranian Opposition’s Provisional Government
UK Green Party Vote on ‘Zionism is Racism’ Motion Collapses Amid Internal Disputes and Technical Failures
SNL UK Ignites Debate with Sharp Royal Satire Targeting Prince Andrew and Prince William
EU Proposes ‘Emergency Brake’ to Resolve Deadlock in UK Youth Mobility Talks
Thousands Rally in London to Oppose Rise of Far-Right Movements
Hong Kong Official Rejects Allegations of Surveillance Orders Targeting UK-Based Dissidents
PayPal Expands Cryptocurrency Services to Allow UK Users to Buy and Sell Bitcoin
UK Minister Challenges Reform Party’s ‘Pro-Family’ Agenda as Debate Intensifies
Concerns Grow Over Meningitis Risk Among UK Students Amid Warning Signs of New Outbreaks
×