London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, May 09, 2025

El Nino Likely To Return, May Fuel Spike In Global Temperatures: UN Agency

El Nino Likely To Return, May Fuel Spike In Global Temperatures: UN Agency

A warming El Nino event may develop in the coming months, according to a new update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
A warming El Nino event may develop in the coming months, according to a new update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The El Nino event may develop after three consecutive years of an unusually stubborn and protracted La Nina, which influenced temperature and rainfall patterns in different parts of the world, WMO said in a statement.

However, while the return of El Nino is considered likely this will be proceeded by a period of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions, with 90 per cent probability, during March-May, the statement said.

The likelihood of ENSO neutral conditions continuing beyond May decreases slightly but remains high, with 80 per cent likelihood in April-June and 60 per cent in May-July, based on the model predictions and assessment from experts involved in producing the Update, it said.

The chances of El Nino developing, while low in the first half of the year, 15 per cent in April-June, gradually increases to 35 per cent in May-July, the statement said.

Long-lead forecasts for June-August indicate a much higher chance, 55 per cent, of El Nino developing but are subject to high uncertainty associated with predictions this time of the year, the so-called spring predictability barrier, it said.

"The first triple-dip La Nina of the 21st century is finally coming to an end. La Nina's cooling effect put a temporary brake on rising global temperatures, even though the past eight year period was the warmest on record," said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.

"If we do now enter an El Nino phase, this is likely to fuel another spike in global temperatures," said Mr Taalas.

The year 2016 is currently the warmest on record because of the combination of El Nino and climate change.

There is a 93 percent likelihood of at least one year until 2026 being the warmest on record. There is also a 50:50 chance of the global temperature temporarily reaching 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial era, according to a study last year by the UK's Met Office, which is WMO's lead centre for annual to decadal climate predictions.

The current La Nina began in September 2020 with a brief break in the boreal summer of 2021.

La Nina refers to the large-scale cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation.

It usually has the opposite impacts on weather and climate as El Nino in affected regions.

La Nina has been associated with the persistent drought in the Greater Horn of Africa and large parts of South America as well as above average rainfall in South East Asia and Australasia.

The El Nino and La Nina phenomenon occurs naturally. But it is taking place against a background of human-induced climate change, which is increasing global temperatures, affecting seasonal rainfall patterns, and making our weather more extreme.

El Nino and La Nina are major, but not the only, drivers of the Earth's climate system.

In addition to the long-established ENSO Update, WMO now also issues regular Global Seasonal Climate Updates (GSCU), which incorporate influences of the other major climate drivers such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole.

A return to near-normal ENSO conditions is predicted for the equatorial central and eastern Pacific, and warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures are generally predicted over other oceanic regions.

This contributes to widespread prediction of above-normal temperatures over land areas, according to the GSCU.

Even though La Nina is coming to an end we are likely to see latent impacts for some time to come and therefore some of the canonical rainfall impacts of La Nina may still continue.

The lingering impacts of multi-year La Nina is basically due to its long duration, and continuous circulation anomaly, which are different from the single-peak La Nina event.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Historic Papal Conclave Set to Commence in Rome
Huge Copper, Gold, and Silver Discovery in Argentina and Chile — But the Profits Go Abroad
Prince Harry is pleading for reconciliation — but the royals are just as sick of his victimhood as everyone else
The Road to Freedom: She Protested Putin, Escaped House Arrest, and Survived a 2,800-Kilometer Journey
OpenAI's Flip-Flop: No Longer Going Commercial, Back to Nonprofit, After Musk Lawsuit and Backlash
“Trump Supporter” Aims to Bring a MAGA-Style Shift to Romania
First From China: Zhao Xintong Wins the Snooker World Championship
Nvidia Faces Billion-Dollar Losses – Warns: China Is on Its Way to Becoming an AI Superpower
Trump Rules Out Third Term, Names JD Vance and Marco Rubio as Potential Successors
Mexico Says ‘No’ to U.S. Troops: President Sheinbaum Rejects Trump’s Offer to Fight Cartels
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK Storms the Map, Wrecking the Two-Party Monopoly
DOGE: Reimagining Government Operations with AI
Common Sense Returns to Britain's Legal System: UK Supreme Court Declares a Woman Is… a Woman
Beijing Says U.S. Is ‘Reaching Out’ for Tariff Talks Amid Soaring Trade Tensions
U.K. Court Rejects Prince Harry’s Final Appeal Over Police Security
Prince Harry’s Heartfelt Outburst Rocks the Royal Family
Trump Shares AI-Generated Image of Himself as… Pope, Prompting Outrage Reaction
Transgender Swimmer Secures Five Gold Medals at U.S. Masters Championship
Prince Harry: “I Want Reconciliation with My Family”
Germany's Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party has now been officially labeled “right-wing extremist” by the federal office for the so-called “protection of the constitution.”
Amazon Launches Satellite Internet Service Amidst Competition with SpaceX
Transformative Changes in Women's Wrestling: The Rise of WWE Superstars
The Rush to the White Gold: Global Investment Surge in Natural Hydrogen Exploration
This is a day in Spain without electricity and internet
Reform UK Surprises in British Elections, Challenging Traditional Two-Party System
180-Year-Old Christian University in South Carolina Announces Closure Due to Unmet $6 Million Fundraising Goal
Brazilian Woman Jailed for Fourteen Years for Writing “You Lost, Idiot” on Statue During Protest
Trump Administration Removes National Security Adviser Mike Waltz Amid Signal Chat Controversy
Dutch Politician Eva Vlaardingerbroek Receives Spyware Threat Alert from Apple
Paramount Board Considers Settlement in Trump’s $20 Billion Lawsuit Over "60 Minutes" Interview
U.S. Economy Shrink in Trump’s First Quarter as Tariff Policy Raises Questions
Deadline Looms for RTS Meter Replacement: Hundreds of Thousands at Risk of Heating Disruption
Sweden Grapples with Deadly Gun Violence: Suspect Arrested After Three Young Men Killed in Uppsala Hair Salon
Walz Reveals Why Harris Chose Him as Her Running Mate and Reflects on Democratic Losses
Spain Restores Power After Unprecedented Nationwide Blackout
Carney Secures Liberal Mandate in Canada’s Federal Election
Death Penalty Sought as Luigi Manion Pleads Not Guilty in CEO Murder Case
President Trump contacts Jeff Bezos after reports of Amazon considering listing tariff surcharges; company clarifies no such plan for main platform
Spain and Portugal Recover from Massive Blackout
Liverpool Clinches Record-Equalling 20th English League Title Under Arne Slot
Singapore Politicians Warn Against Foreign Interference in Election
Driver Ploughs into Vancouver Festival Crowd, Killing Nine
Depression, Fear of Defamation, and a Tragic End: New Details on Virginia Giuffre’s Suicide
“Sharia for UK, Allah Akbar!”
Massive Explosion at Iran's Bandar Abbas Port Linked to Suspicious Chemical Shipments
Incident Reflection: A Harsh Reality Check
Pakistani migrants to Danish man: “ “We have 5 children while you have 1 or 2. In 10 years, there will be more Pakistanis than Danes here.“
Clashes Erupt in London as Tensions Rise Between Indian and Pakistani Communities
Specialized anti-drone weapons deployed among security personnel Ahead of Papal Funeral
How do you fix this culture?
×