London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Sep 02, 2026

Covid: Deaths below average for first time since summer

Covid: Deaths below average for first time since summer

Deaths in the UK have fallen below the five-year average for the first time since the summer.

Experts say it means the winter wave of Covid deaths has ended and lockdown and the vaccine rollout have saved lives.

In the week up to 12 March, 14% of all deaths involved Covid, compared with 44% at the 22 January peak, Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures show.

In January, Covid deaths drove overall mortality in the UK 40% higher than the average seen between 2015 and 2019.

There have been more than 145,000 deaths involving Covid in the UK since the first lockdown, a year ago.

Warmer weather


During the first wave of the virus, tens of thousands of Covid deaths meant many more people were dying overall than during the same months in previous years.

The first lockdown brought cases down - but it took longer for this to translate to a fall in deaths.

Following this lockdown, and in the warmer weather from late June until the beginning of August, deaths dipped back below the five-year average.

But after the first week of August, they again began to rise above levels expected for the time of year.


And they remained above expected levels every week since - with the exception of the week ending 4 September, which was skewed by delays in reporting because of the August Bank Holiday - until the second week in March, which saw them fall 5% below the average.

This time we have a tool we did not have previously, though, in the form of vaccines.

Prof Neil Ferguson, director of the Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, at Imperial College London, said: "The new ONS data on deaths is encouraging in suggesting the second devastating wave of the pandemic is behind us.

"But calling epidemics 'waves' can be misleading in implying a phenomenon which has reached a natural end - that is not the case here.

"The rapid decline in deaths we have thankfully seen is entirely because of the lockdown and the rapid rollout of vaccines.

"So while I'm optimistic that this we will be able to return to something more like normal in the next few months, we need to remain vigilant and cautious in the pace with which social distancing is relaxed - particularly given the threat still posed by new variants of the virus."

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
England Faces Renewed Scrutiny Over Sewage Discharges and Water Quality
Victoria Beckham Business Reports First Operating Profit Since Launch
BT Expects £2 Billion From Copper Sales During Full-Fibre Rollout
UK Train Drivers Secure 3.6% Pay Rise and Avert Strike Action
FCA Chief Faces Scrutiny Over Alleged Pressure on Consumer Group in Car Finance Case
Kemi Badenoch Names Andrew Griffith Shadow Chancellor in Conservative Reshuffle
UK House Prices Rise for First Time Since April
UK Shop-Price Inflation Accelerates to 1.5% in August
Met Office Data Point to Hottest UK Summer on Record
UK Announces Emergency Prison Release Measures and £110 Million Capacity Expansion
UK Launches Expanded Free School Meals and 1,400 Breakfast Clubs
Bank of England Governor Warns G20 of AI-Related Economic and Cyber Risks
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Calls for Greater Public Control of Water, Energy and Transport
UK Gains Full Access to £13 Trillion Trans-Pacific Trade Bloc
UK Long-Term Borrowing Costs Hit 28-Year High as Oil Shock Drives Global Bond Selloff
Royal Mail Keeps First-Class Stamps at £1.80 and Second-Class at 91p
Church of England Prepares Formal Apology Over Historical Forced Adoptions
UK Competition Regulator Caps Veterinary Prescription Fees at £21
UK Aviation Authorities Roll Out Airspace Changes to Reduce Flight Delays
England Makes School Allergy Policies Mandatory Under Benedict’s Law
England and Wales Tighten Child Safeguarding Checks by Removing Supervision Exemption
Cornwall Geothermal Plant Begins Commercial Power and Lithium Operations
UK Inflation Holds Near 2.9% as Energy Costs Remain a Risk
UK Productivity Growth Averages 1.1% Over Two Years, Resolution Foundation Says
England Introduces Nationwide School Smartphone Ban and Uniform Limits
UK Gives Border Officers New Powers to Seize Migrants’ Mobile Phones
Green Party Wins First Westminster By-Election in Gorton and Denton
UK and EU Advance Gibraltar Border Deal Allowing Spanish Guards to Conduct Arrival Checks
Robert Jenrick Joins Reform UK After Losing Conservative Whip
Andy Burnham Faces First Prime Minister’s Questions After Labour Cabinet Overhaul
ScottishPower Recycles Nearly All Materials From Historic Hagshaw Hill Wind Farm
Millions Travel Across England, Wales and Northern Ireland for Summer Bank Holiday
Met Office Issues Yellow Thunderstorm Warnings Across Southern England
Four Arrested After Bank Holiday Stabbing Violence in Kettering
Scottish Chamber of Commerce Warns Tax and Business Costs Risk Holding Back Scotland
UK Government Launches Youth Employment Drive With Major Retailers
UK and Ukraine Advance AI and Defence Technology Partnership
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Moves to Exclude Serious Offenders From Early Release
Twelve Arrested After A66 Crash Kills Seven, Including Two Police Officers
Bank of England Governor Warns AI Investment Boom Could Trigger Global Market Correction
London Science Museum Ends Long-Running BP Sponsorship
Scottish Homeowners Prepare Valuation Challenges Over Proposed Mansion Tax
UK Prosecutors Consider Charges Against Undercover Police in Spycops Scandal
James Cleverly Leaves Shadow Cabinet to Run for London Mayor
Avanti West Coast Drivers Agree 3.6% Pay Rise, Averting Strike Action
Allianz Explores £5 Billion Takeover of British Roadside Assistance Group AA
UK Government Retreats From Plan to Unfreeze Personal Income Tax Threshold
Northern Ireland Leaders Press UK Government for Sustainable Funding Settlement
UK Health Agency Warns Nationwide Salmonella Outbreak Could Worsen
NHS Warns Autism and ADHD Assessment Costs Have Become Unsustainable
×