London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Oct 21, 2026

Covid: Can UK avoid a Europe-style return to lockdown?

Covid: Can UK avoid a Europe-style return to lockdown?

Covid infection rates have started rising sharply in parts of Western Europe, prompting the introduction of fresh restrictions and lockdowns.

It has triggered fears the UK could follow suit. But there are plenty of reasons to believe Britain will escape the worst of what is being seen on the continent. In fact, the UK may well be in the strongest position of all to weather Covid this winter.

To understand why that could be the case, you need to look at the reasons why cases have started to take off in Western Europe.

Unlike the UK - and England in particular - many parts of Europe kept major restrictions in place for much longer.

Whereas England fully unlocked in mid-July, parts of Europe did not do this until the autumn, and in many places kept tougher restrictions in place even as they did.

Part of this was to do with timing. The UK was hit by the more infectious Alpha variant and then Delta sooner, meaning it was in a position to push ahead with unlocking before others.



But it was also a conscious choice backed by the government's top scientists, Prof Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance.

The logic - along with the benefit of ending restrictions that themselves cause harm to health - was that it was better to have the rebound in infection, the so-called exit wave, in the summer.

It was felt the increase in the spread of the virus would be mitigated by the better weather, meaning more time spent outdoors, and would avoid the winter crunch when pressure on the health system increases across the board.

UK has high levels of immunity


The UK has, in effect, already had the wave the rest of Europe is seeing and has managed to avoid being swamped by it.

That is mainly because of the amount of immunity built up.

A combination of good vaccine rollout, particularly among the older more vulnerable groups who are the ones most at risk of serious illness, and natural immunity from infection means there is likely to be a much smaller pool of vulnerable people for the virus to infect.

Researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine have been trying to quantify this by looking at what would happen if everyone was suddenly exposed to the virus in one go.

They modelled this for England - although there is nothing to suggest Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland would be any different - and 18 other European nations.

If this hypothetical situation happened, England would have by far the fewest people ending up in hospital - 62 per 100,000 people - because of immunity built up by vaccination and infection. That compares with more than 300 in Germany, largely because of their lower levels of infection to date, and more than 800 in Romania, which has struggled to convince its public to come forward for vaccination.


This was the picture at the end of October. If the same analysis was done at the end of November it is likely the situation would be even more favourable for England, says lead researcher Dr Lloyd Chapman.

That's because the UK is ploughing ahead faster than other nations with boosters. Again part of this is related to timing. As the UK was quicker off the mark with Covid vaccinations initially, there are greater numbers of people becoming eligible for a booster.

"We are giving those boosters to the very people who are most at risk at perhaps the best time - they will have the best protection in winter."


But Dr Chapman also points out this has come at a price - the high rates of infection have resulted in a greater amount of serious illness and death in recent months than many of our Western European neighbours.

And he adds the research should not be seen as a guarantee we will escape the winter without seeing a surge in cases. "We may be in the strongest position - but we could still see cases double and that would cause problems."

'Public playing key role in UK'


But is that likely? What is perhaps most remarkable about the UK is just how stable infection levels have been. Ever since the sharp rise seen in early summer peaked in mid-July, infection rates have bobbled along, small rises being followed by similar drops.

There is no other part of Europe that has seen Covid infections held so stable with very few restrictions in place.

Instead, when other nations have seen cases surge restrictions have tended to be reimposed. This is happening now in parts of Western Europe and follows on from what happened in Eastern Europe early in the autumn.

Romania, for example, saw a sharp rise in cases in September and October and reacted by introducing a night curfew, sending children home from school and introducing health passes for access to public venues.

It is telling that those nations that have had the most problems as winter arrives are the ones identified by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine as having the greatest pool of vulnerable people. How far this pattern spreads across Europe remains to be seen.


But immunity alone does not explain why the UK, and in particular England, has seen such stable rates, says Prof Graham Medley, who chairs the government's infectious disease modelling group.

Prof Medley, speaking in a personal capacity, believes it is more complex than that. "I think we are seeing the public playing an important role."

He says a combination of limiting mixing and frequent use of rapid tests, which are more easy to access here than in many other countries, seems to be doing just enough to keep the virus in check.

"The government has passed the risk management to the public - and we've been able to do that better than other countries."

The big question is whether that will last throughout winter - Scotland and Northern Ireland are already talking about the possibility of tightening of restrictions. Prof Medley says it is "delicately" balanced, but with every passing week the chances are getting better.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
London Capital Markets Face Renewed Scrutiny After High-Profile Offerings Underperform Post-Listing
Green Party Wins Historic First Westminster Parliamentary By-Election in Gorton and Denton
Environment Secretary Emma Reynolds Unveils Sweeping Regulatory Overhaul for English Water Industry
United Kingdom Health Security Agency Confirms Thirty-Four Cases in Kent Meningitis Outbreak
Ministry of Defence Prepares Heat Pump Subsidy Cuts to Fund Urgent Military Modernization
British and European Union Officials Schedule Long-Awaited Bilateral Leaders Summit for November Twentieth
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey Urges Strict Fiscal Credibility to Protect British Bond Markets
United Kingdom Inflation Rises to Three Point One Percent Driven by Escalating Fuel Costs
Profit Warnings Among London-Listed Companies Reach Two-Year High Amid Global Energy Shocks
Chancellor John Healey Signals Targeted Tax Changes on Banks and London Corporate Offices Ahead of Budget
British Government Reallocates Twenty-Five Per Cent of International Climate Finance to Global Biodiversity Projects
Initial British Carbon Border Taxes Set to Undercut Parallel European Union Tariffs on Industrial Imports
Whitehall Prepares National Zero-Interest Loan Initiative to Accelerate Domestic Heat Pump and Solar Adoption
European Union Offers British Automakers Access to Hybrid Vehicle Trade Protections Subject to Strict Regulatory Alignment
British Probation Officers Threaten Widespread Industrial Action After Rejecting Five Per Cent Government Pay Offer
Microsoft Abandons Major British Artificial Intelligence Data Centre Citing Severe National Grid Power Constraints
United Kingdom Inflation Accelerates to Three Point Four Per Cent Ahead of Chancellor John Healey's Inaugural Autumn Budget
Surging Cloned Number Plates Severely Complicate Traffic Enforcement and Police Investigations
Mounting Opposition Challenges Planned Rollout of Autonomous Taxis Across London
Influential Think Tank Urges Rejoining European Union to Navigate Geopolitical Crises
Government Review Recommends Slashing Benefits to Fund Youth Employment Initiatives
Senior Minister Shabana Mahmood Seeks New Law Enforcement Pact With European Union
Airbus Executive Warns Britain Risks Losing Crucial Role in European Space Industry
Exorbitant Electricity Costs Push British Steelmakers to Worst Competitive Position in Three Years
British Food and Beverage Exports to European Union Collapse by Over a Third Since Brexit
Up to Twenty English Maternity Units Face Impending Closure Due to Safety and Staffing Crises
Government Declares Severe Drought Across Southern England Following Record Dry Spell
Corporate Profit Warnings Reach Two-Year High Amid Middle East Conflict and Rising Costs
International Monetary Fund Warns Chancellor John Healey Against Proposed Bank Tax Raid
Northern Ireland Secures Favorable Agricultural Export Agreement with European Union
Scottish Government Approves Major Offshore Floating Wind Farm Near Aberdeenshire
High Speed Two Rail Project Faces Three Billion Pound Cost Escalation on Initial Phase
National Health Service Warns of Winter Capacity Crisis Across English Hospitals
Tata Steel Confirms Two Thousand Job Cuts at Port Talbot to Fund Green Transition
Global Microchip Developer Announces Three Billion Pound Semiconductor Plant in Cambridge
United Kingdom Artificial Intelligence Safety Institute Proposes Mandatory Licensing for Generative Models
United Kingdom Commits Additional Long-Range Weapons and Air Defenses to Ukraine
British Chancellor Overhauls Infrastructure Financing to Bypass Borrowing Constraints
Bank of England Holds Benchmark Interest Rate at Four Point Five Percent
First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth Confirms Constitutional Discussions Over Welsh Independence During Initial Bilateral Call with Prime Minister
Labour Party Instructs Local Council Groups to Sever Power-Sharing Accords with Green Party Over New Controversial Policy Positions
Institute for Fiscal Studies Warns of Thirty-Five Billion Pound Fiscal Gap Ahead of Chancellor John Healey Upcoming Autumn Budget
House of Lords Backs Landmark Legislative Amendment to Decriminalize Abortion Across England and Wales
United Kingdom Defence Secretary Wes Streeting Travels to Pentagon for High-Level Strategic Talks Amid Escalating Tensions Over Ukraine and United States Policy Shifts
Bank of England and International Monetary Fund Officials Issue Urgent Warnings Regarding Potential Artificial Intelligence Financial Market Shocks
Reform UK Faces Severe Political Fallout and Scrutiny After Undercover Media Investigations Reveal Systemic Racism Among Candidates
Former Democratic Unionist Party Leader Jeffrey Donaldson Sentenced to Fifteen Years in Prison Following Landmark Child Sexual Abuse Trial
House of Lords Votes to Amend Schools Bill Implementing Comprehensive Social Media Ban for Children Under Sixteen Years of Age
International Monetary Fund Upgrades United Kingdom Growth Forecast for Two Thousand Twenty-Six While Warning of Energy-Driven Inflation Pressures
Competition and Markets Authority Launches Formal Inquiry Into Corporate Artificial Intelligence Partnerships
×