London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Monday, Jul 06, 2026

Cost of living: Higher wage growth suggests another interest rate rise is on the way

Cost of living: Higher wage growth suggests another interest rate rise is on the way

Sky's Gurpreet Narwan explains why the Bank of England is likely to be concerned by the pace of wage increases revealed by official employment figures.
Wages are rising but everyone is unhappy.

That is because pay for workers is not rising quickly enough while policymakers are worried because pay is not slowing quickly enough.

It encapsulates the problems facing the UK economy.

While the government and the Bank of England are desperately trying to suppress inflation, workers are fighting to maintain their living standards.

Unfortunately, the Bank fears the two are incompatible. If workers get the pay rises they want it could further fuel inflation.

The latest official figures show nobody is getting what they want.

Wages, when the effects of bonuses are stripped out, rose by 6.6% in the three months to February, compared to the same period last year.

That was unchanged from the previous three-month period and considerably higher than the slowdown to 6.2% that economists were forecasting.

Total pay was up by 5.9% - rising from 5.7%.

Wage growth is proving too stubborn for the Bank, which wants to see signs of a slowdown before it cuts interest rates.

This shouldn't take too long now that unemployment is rising.

Samuel Tombs, an economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the latest data had "raised the chances of the MPC hiking Bank Rate again next month; a further 25 basis point now looks like a toss-up," he wrote.

So, households and businesses could be hit with more interest rate rises at a time when society is getting poorer because wages continue to lag inflation.

The headline rate of inflation is currently at 10.4%.

It means that, when adjusted for inflation, real pay fell by 2.3% over the same period with public sector workers bearing the brunt of the slowdown.

This tension is at the heart of the industrial action sweeping the nation.

The country lost 348,000 days to strike action in February and, with living standards continuing to fall, the figure is only likely to rise.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
NHS Maternity Reform Expands Central Oversight After Critical National Review
Dover Border Warnings Highlight Post-Brexit Pressure on Cross-Channel Trade
Private Nuclear Consortium Advances £35 Billion Small Reactor Strategy in UK
UK Labour Leadership Signals Shift Toward Reindustrialisation and Regional Power
House of Lords Debates Rail Nationalisation Bill to Create Great British Railways
Scottish Affairs Committee Expands Inquiry Into SNP Financial Conduct
Evri Launches £1.2 Million Defamation Case Against BBC Over Panorama Investigation
Port of Dover Warns of Border Delays as EU Entry-Exit System Looms
Nigel Farage Referred to Standards Watchdog Over Alleged Undeclared Benefits
UK Government Faces Scrutiny Over Claimed AI Datacentre Investment After FOI Findings
UK and India Finalise Trade Agreement Rules Ahead of Mid-July Implementation
UK Government Establishes National Maternity Commissioner After Major Review of NHS Care Failures
Private Consortium Plans £35 Billion UK Nuclear Programme Targeting Small Modular Reactor Rollout
Andy Burnham Sets Out Ten-Year Reindustrialisation and Devolution Plan as Leadership Transition to UK Premiership Advances
Morocco and France Advance as 2026 FIFA World Cup Enters Quarterfinals.
Historic 2026 Tour de France Opens in Barcelona With Revamped Team Time Trial.
Global Mergers and Acquisitions Approach $4 Trillion Defying Geopolitical Tumult.
Negotiators Advance 20-Point Framework for Gaza Ceasefire and Demilitarization.
OECD Warns Middle East Conflict Will Depress Global Economic Growth.
Ukrainian Drones Strike Major Oil Terminal in St. Petersburg.
World Meteorological Organization Issues Urgent Alert Over Rapidly Intensifying El Niño.
United States Commemorates 250th Anniversary With Diplomatic Summits and Global Flotilla.
Iran Begins Days-Long Funeral for Supreme Leader Khamenei Amid Strait of Hormuz Standoff.
Technology giant reports surging carbon emissions driven by artificial intelligence infrastructure demands.
Artificial intelligence adoption accelerates workforce reductions across the technology and financial sectors.
Global technology and financial conglomerates collaborate to launch a new stablecoin standard.
United States regulators lift export restrictions on a major frontier artificial intelligence model.
Royal Society Exhibition Highlights Growing Focus on Public Trust in Science
Energy Costs and Supply Chain Risks Continue to Shape UK Business Strategy
Rapid Rise in Artificial Intelligence Adoption Reshapes UK Corporate Operations, ONS Says
UK Businesses Turn Defensive as Economic Outlook Weakens, Institute of Directors Data Shows
UK Government Faces Criticism Over Late Extension of Pub Hours for England Match
Inquest Continues Into Death of Noah Donohoe as Jury Deliberates Findings
Calls for Stronger Wildlife Attraction Safety Rules After Crocodile Enclosure Injury
City Fire Under Control After Major Blaze Sends Smoke Across Urban Area
Police Investigation Continues After Officer Killed During Road Closure Duties
Blackpool Hotel Fined £120,000 After Electric Shock Incident Involving Child
Whistleblowers Allege Delays in UK Special Educational Needs Support Services
Calls Grow for Improved Support for UK Armed Forces Personnel Facing Health Conditions
Rising UK Energy Price Cap Increase Prompts Wider Concerns Over Household Pressures
UK Businesses Remain Concerned Over Global Conflict Risks to Supply Chains, ONS Finds
Office for National Statistics Reports Rising Adoption of Artificial Intelligence Across UK Businesses
Institute of Directors Reports Deepening Pessimism in UK Business Confidence Index
England Prepare for World Cup Round of 16 Match Against Mexico in Mexico City
Royal Society Summer Science Exhibition Concludes in London After Week-Long Showcase of Research
Silverstone Hosts British Grand Prix as Lando Norris and Lewis Hamilton Lead Home Crowd Expectations
Cornwall Van Dwellers Face Homelessness Risk as Council Tightens Enforcement
Police Investigate Stabbing of Iranian Journalist in London
Rare Copy of US Declaration of Independence Discovered in UK Archive
Department for Education Data Shows Persistent Literacy Gap Among Disadvantaged White Pupils
×