London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Monday, Jun 29, 2026

Cost of living: Higher wage growth suggests another interest rate rise is on the way

Cost of living: Higher wage growth suggests another interest rate rise is on the way

Sky's Gurpreet Narwan explains why the Bank of England is likely to be concerned by the pace of wage increases revealed by official employment figures.
Wages are rising but everyone is unhappy.

That is because pay for workers is not rising quickly enough while policymakers are worried because pay is not slowing quickly enough.

It encapsulates the problems facing the UK economy.

While the government and the Bank of England are desperately trying to suppress inflation, workers are fighting to maintain their living standards.

Unfortunately, the Bank fears the two are incompatible. If workers get the pay rises they want it could further fuel inflation.

The latest official figures show nobody is getting what they want.

Wages, when the effects of bonuses are stripped out, rose by 6.6% in the three months to February, compared to the same period last year.

That was unchanged from the previous three-month period and considerably higher than the slowdown to 6.2% that economists were forecasting.

Total pay was up by 5.9% - rising from 5.7%.

Wage growth is proving too stubborn for the Bank, which wants to see signs of a slowdown before it cuts interest rates.

This shouldn't take too long now that unemployment is rising.

Samuel Tombs, an economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the latest data had "raised the chances of the MPC hiking Bank Rate again next month; a further 25 basis point now looks like a toss-up," he wrote.

So, households and businesses could be hit with more interest rate rises at a time when society is getting poorer because wages continue to lag inflation.

The headline rate of inflation is currently at 10.4%.

It means that, when adjusted for inflation, real pay fell by 2.3% over the same period with public sector workers bearing the brunt of the slowdown.

This tension is at the heart of the industrial action sweeping the nation.

The country lost 348,000 days to strike action in February and, with living standards continuing to fall, the figure is only likely to rise.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Launches New Measures to Improve Safety Standards in Night-Time Venues
UK Tightens Import Rules for Low-Value Parcels to Support Domestic Retailers
UK Launches £85 Million Obesity Care Programme Targeting Early Intervention Projects
UK Commits Up to $26 Million to Ebola Response in Democratic Republic of Congo
Security Industry Authority Flags Safety Failures in Night-Time Economy Inspections
Cambridge South Railway Station Opens After £250 Million Investment
UK Moves to Close Import Duty Loophole for Small Parcels by 2028
UK Invests £85 Million in Projects to Transform Obesity Care
Berkeley Group Warns London Housebuilding Falling Far Short of Demand
UK Council Tax Arrears Rise to £9.3 Billion Amid Ongoing Household Financial Strain
Markets Watch Political Transition as Andy Burnham Emerges as Labour Leadership Frontrunner
Extreme Heat Raises Long-Term Risks for UK Inflation and Productivity, Analysts Warn
UK Health Alerts Extended as Record June Heatwave Grips England
UK Parliament Faces High-Stakes Week of Spending, Security and Industrial Legislation
UK Repeals Vagrancy Act Ending Criminalisation of Rough Sleeping in England and Wales
GB News Pundit Charged With Fraud Over Alleged Conduct as Former Labour Adviser
Reform UK Gains Parliamentary Visibility in First Senedd Opposition Appearance
Metropolitan Police Arrest Man on Suspicion of Attempted Murder After London Car Incident
Ocado Chief Executive Tim Steiner Faces Scrutiny Over £100 Million Remuneration Package
British Chambers of Commerce Downgrades UK Growth Outlook to 0.9 Percent for 2026
Nottingham University Hospitals Maternity Failings Trigger Renewed Calls for Public Inquiry
Severe Heatwave Disrupts UK Transport Networks and Strains Public Services Across England
Labour Leadership Transition Raises Prospect of Andy Burnham Becoming UK Prime Minister
UK Government Confirms Further Medicine Price Concessions for Community Pharmacies in June
British Chambers of Commerce Calls for Public Procurement Reform to Boost Regional Growth
Thousands Mark Armed Forces Day Across the United Kingdom With National Parades and Flypasts
Man Arrested in Ealing on Suspicion of Attempted Murder After Vehicle Ramming Incident Injures Five
Cambridge South Station Opens With £250 Million Investment to Strengthen Life Sciences Corridor
UK Heat-Health Alerts Extended Across England as High Temperatures Persist
Thames Water and Energy Operators Warn of Peak Demand Risks During UK Heatwave
Government Conference Highlights Push for Evidence-Led Policy Across UK Public Sector
Insolvency Service Reports Improved Confidence in UK Insolvency System
Security Industry Authority Finds Widespread Safety Failures in UK Night-Time Economy
Nigel Farage Expands Anti-WHO Campaign Into United States With New Lobbying Structure
Home Secretary Seema Mahmood Unveils New Safe Routes Plan for Asylum Seekers
UK Government Warns of Peak Electricity and Water Pressure Amid Ongoing Heatwave
New Nuclear Plant in Wales Named Gwyndod Power Station as Energy Strategy Advances
UK Announces First Major Hydropower Projects in Four Decades to Expand Renewable Capacity
Thirteen Men Charged in Major UK Sexual Abuse Case as Investigation Continues
UK Launches Cross-Sector Climate Security Taskforce Linking Environment and National Security
UN Secretary-General António Guterres Calls for Urgent Global Methane Emissions Cuts in London
World Bank Approves $1 Billion UK-Backed Financing Package for Ukraine Recovery
UK Pledges Emergency Aid and Rescue Team Deployment to Earthquake-Hit Venezuela
Bank of England Holds Interest Rates at 3.75 Percent for Fourth Straight Meeting
Record-Breaking Heatwave Puts Strain on UK Health Services and Energy Networks
London Ambulance Service Sees Record Emergency Demand as Heatwave Intensifies
British Chambers of Commerce Warns of Prolonged Weak Investment Climate Through 2027
Bank of England Holds Interest Rates as Inflation Risks Persist
UK Construction Sector Faces One Percent Contraction Amid Cost and Investment Pressures
Former DUP Leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson Convicted of Sexual Offences
×