London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Aug 06, 2026

Cost of living: Chancellor's aid will help you and make things worse at the same time

Cost of living: Chancellor's aid will help you and make things worse at the same time

Let's begin with perhaps the most important question: will this make a difference?

The short answer is yes. The stimulus the chancellor announced today is big - very big. It will affect all households and some - especially those on lower incomes, benefits and many pensioners - will get outsized one-off cash payments.

For the "average" household, such as it is, the fact that the energy bill rebate has been doubled will mean bills are no longer in totally unprecedented territory; instead they are only likely to hit the highest level since the early 1980s.

In short, this package will not prevent the coming year from feeling painful; however, it will certainly mean it is less painful in the short run than it would otherwise have been.

And the fact that a lot of this money is dedicated to lower income households who are hardest hit by the cost of living crisis is especially important. For one of the iniquities of inflation is that it is a very regressive economic phenomenon: it tends to affect the poorest the most.

This latest package is far better tailored to this problem than the deficient one introduced by the chancellor earlier this year.

Many would say that this is the very package Rishi Sunak should have produced in the spring statement back in March, and they have more than half a point.

They might point out, too, that contrary to what he said on Thursday, the outlines of what we are currently facing were already clear back then. But no point in dwelling on the past. The package is generous and progressive, and will help many households in the short term.

The big figures in today's package/budget are primarily one-off payments but it's also important to note there is a longer-term element in there.

For the chancellor also announced that next year's benefits and pensions will be increased in line with the inflation figure as of September. This is one of those throwaway lines which could easily be glossed over, but let's ponder it for a moment.

Inflation is likely to peak around this autumn - probably in October - at over 10%. In other words, September's inflation is likely to be very high. So the chancellor is planning to increase benefits and pensions a lot.

It's hard to know how much this will cost, in part because we don't yet know what inflation will be by then but just as if not more importantly because he has decided to announce all this stuff outside of a traditional budget, so isn't under any obligation to show his workings.

But my broad-brush calculation suggests this uprating could end up costing as much as £25bn.

Now consider that the complete package announced today was £15bn and you get a sense of what we're talking about.

This is, again, a lot of money.

Some, including Mr Sunak, will argue that this is the right decision given the crisis the UK is currently facing. However it's worth noting that this is a very different kind of message to the one he was attempting to give us only a few weeks ago.

For months, he has underlined that we should be careful about borrowing extra money. Today's plans involve borrowing at least another £10bn.

For months he has warned about the risks of inflation. His speech today began with a long section about the risks of rising prices. Yet this package, all told, looks very inflationary indeed.

It will put a lot more money into pockets and people will spend more which in turn will push up prices. So far from combating inflation, it makes the Bank of England's job even tougher, pushing up demand in the economy significantly.

To some extent this just underlines the difficulties of policymaking right now.

Energy markets are sending us a message: there is not enough supply of energy to satisfy our demand for the stuff. One response is to allow people's spending to decrease so demand matches supply; but that involves a recession.

Another response is to pump up demand. But that poses the risk of embedding inflation in the economy, making it even more difficult to reduce. It also makes it far more likely that the Bank will have to raise interest rates in the coming months.

Things are already bumpy. This package, necessary as it might feel, may make things even bumpier, especially once the short term sugar rush of those giveaways wears off.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Reform UK and Greens Unite Against Vast Solar Plans for Kent Marshland
New Zealand Draws Wealthy Americans With Revamped Investor Visa
Senate Panel Votes to Hold Anthony Fauci in Contempt After Fifth Amendment Testimony
Cambridge Professor Jason Arday Resigns as University Opens Inquiry Into His Credentials
UK Artificial Intelligence Regulation and Public Infrastructure Investment Remain Key Policy Focus Areas
Kemi Badenoch Faces Criticism Over Appointment of Former Neo-Nazi Linked Figure to Advisory Role
AG Barr Reports £10 Million Sales Loss After Supply Chain and Planning Failures
UK Government Fast-Tracks Specialist Care Pathways for Motor Neurone Disease Patients
UK Government Connects More Than 60,000 Rural Homes and Businesses to Gigabit Broadband
Next Raises Full-Year Profit Forecast After Strong Summer Sales
Metropolitan Police Arrest Woman After Four Men Stabbed in Central London’s Covent Garden Area
UK Procurement Reform and Infrastructure Spending Signal New Focus on Regional Economic Growth
UK Government Expands Global Talent Visa Access for International Researchers and Innovators
NHS Launches £343 Million Expansion of Community Mental Health Centres Across England
UK Treasury Explores Higher Borrowing Capacity for Infrastructure and Housing Investment
UK Cabinet Office Reforms Procurement Rules to Direct £90 Billion of Public Spending Toward Jobs and Skills
UK Government Considers Public Inquiry Into Jeffrey Epstein’s Activities and Possible Institutional Failures
Britain’s AI Safety Institute Finds Advanced Models Creating Fake Identities and Malicious Code During Tests
Lightning Strike Kills Yala FC Player During Match in Southern Thailand
Senate Scrutinises AI-Driven Personalised Pricing
Spain Seeks Mainland Transfers for 1,100 Children Stranded in Ceuta
UK Government Pushes New Procurement, Skills and Technology Policies Amid Economic Pressure
UK Charity Commission Investigates Donations Linked to Israeli Settlement Groups
UK Government Faces Pressure Over Possible Windfall Tax on Bank Profits
South East Water Provides Emergency Support After Kent Supply Disruptions
UK Defence Supports US Operation to Seize Russian-Flagged Oil Tanker in North Atlantic
Green Party Wins First Westminster By-Election Seat in Historic Gorton and Denton Victory
UK Farmers Face Rising Bluetongue Disease Cases Among Sheep Flocks
UK Government Warns Retailers and Fuel Suppliers Against Exploiting Price Pressures
Apple, AI Deepfakes and New UK Rules Highlight Growing Digital Regulation Challenges
UK Education Department Expands Fully Funded Apprenticeships for Under-25s
National Crime Agency and Spanish Police Arrest Scotland’s Most Wanted Fugitive in Madrid
UK Labour Government’s Devolution Plans Renew Debate Over Written Constitution
EY UK Forecasts Weak Growth in 2026 as Energy Risks Continue to Pressure Households
Apple Challenges UK Government Demand for Access to Encrypted iCloud Data
UK Government Considers Public Inquiry Into Jeffrey Epstein Network and Institutional Links
Cabinet Office Reforms UK Government Procurement Rules to Prioritize Local Jobs and Skills
UK Energy Security Faces Pressure From Middle East Conflict and Red Sea Disruptions
UK Government Expands Employment Discrimination Review Amid Labour Market Changes
UK Campaigners Call for Ban on Toxic Flea Treatments Linked to Water Pollution
MI6 Ranked Europe’s Leading Foreign Intelligence Service in Independent Review
Houthi Missile Attack on Saudi Oil Tanker Raises Further Red Sea Shipping Concerns
Palantir Faces UK Tax Criticism After Paying Two Million Pounds in Corporation Tax
Advanced AI Models Show Unexpected Behaviour During UK Cybersecurity Testing
Bank of England Introduces Tougher Artificial Intelligence Testing Rules for Financial Firms
Next Raises Annual Profit Forecast to One Point Two Four Billion Pounds After Strong Summer Sales
New UK Visa Rules Tighten Skilled Worker, Student and Family Migration Routes
UK Government Proposes New Equal Pay Enforcement Powers for Employers
UK High Court Blocks Home Office Deportation Policy for Alleged Trafficking Victims
UK Health Secretary Yvette Cooper Announces Major Reform of NHS Maternity Services
×