London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Dec 05, 2025

Cost of living: Bank of England governor warns sharper rate hike is 'not locked in' as economy slows

Cost of living: Bank of England governor warns sharper rate hike is 'not locked in' as economy slows

Andrew Bailey uses a speech to the City to warn that market expectations of a 50 basis point hike in Bank rate next month is not guaranteed while the new chancellor outlines plans to boost the financial sector's global competitiveness.

The governor of the Bank of England has warned that the prospect of a sharper increase in Bank rate next month is "not locked in" amid growing evidence of an easing in economic growth and in some inflationary pressures.

Andrew Bailey told the City of London's annual Mansion House dinner that while the prospect of a 50 basis points rise in Bank rate will be on the table next month, the monetary policy committee recognised there was a trade off in a situation of high inflation and low growth.

Rising interest rates tend to hurt demand as borrowing costs rise but much of the inflation witnessed in the UK is on the supply side and out of the Bank's control - a consequence of the energy price spike following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Policymakers are most worried by supply side inflation stoking wage rises in line with the pace of price increases, arguing it will make the inflation problem more persistent.

Mr Bailey argued that there was strong evidence of a weakening economy and that May's figures for economic growth - showing a 0.5% lift compared to April - should be treated with caution against a weakening backdrop in demand.

He was speaking as the Bank is urged to take firmer action against the threat to the economy posed by inflation - currently at its highest level for 40 years at 9.1%.

Mr Bailey spoke out in defence of the Bank's independence this month following criticism from politicians - including Tory leadership candidate Liz Truss - that it has bungled efforts to date to tame the pace of price increases.

The governor used his speech to reiterate that monetary policy would bring inflation back to the Bank's 2% target.


Financial markets currently see a 94% chance that the Bank will raise Bank rate to 1.75% from its current level of 1.25% on 4 August.

But Mr Bailey said: "At the MPC's last meeting we adopted language which made clear that if we see signs of greater persistence of inflation, and price and wage setting would be such signs, we will have to act forcefully.

"In simple terms this means that a 50 basis point increase will be among the choices on the table when we next meet.

"50 basis points is not locked in, and anyone who predicts that is doing so based on their own view."

The Bank, which has predicted that inflation will hit 11% in October when the next energy price cap increase is due to be implemented, could also raise that forecast at its next meeting which is followed by the quarterly monetary policy report.

Mr Bailey said on the current situation for inflation: "The big external shocks - from Russia and supply chains (post-COVID) - account both for a large part of the inflation overshoot above target and for the squeeze on real incomes.

"My sense of the latest data is that the supply chain/goods shock has started to ease, but the Russian impact - particularly on natural gas prices in Europe is going the other way as we look ahead to the winter."

Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi also addressed the dinner.

He confirmed a focus on fighting inflation and a post-Brexit reworking of financial regulation inherited from the European Union, including Solvency II insurance rules.

He told the Mansion House audience that regulators will have to promote the global competitiveness of Britain's financial sector or face mandatory reviews of their rules.

The chancellor confirmed that the long-awaited financial services and markets bill would be introduced before parliament on Wednesday to "capitalise on the benefits of Brexit and transform the UK financial services sector".

Mr Zahawi said the bill, which includes cutting "excessive" capital buffers at insurers to invest in infrastructure, will
unlock "tens of billions of pounds", a step which pits it against a more cautious Bank of England.

The bill also cracks down on financial scams including push payment fraud.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Inquiry Finds Putin ‘Morally Responsible’ for 2018 Novichok Death — London Imposes Broad Sanctions on GRU
India backs down on plan to mandate government “Sanchar Saathi” app on all smartphones
King Charles Welcomes German President Steinmeier to UK in First State Visit by Berlin in 27 Years
UK Plans Major Cutback to Jury Trials as Crown Court Backlog Nears 80,000
UK Government to Significantly Limit Jury Trials in England and Wales
U.S. and U.K. Seal Drug-Pricing Deal: Britain Agrees to Pay More, U.S. Lifts Tariffs
UK Postpones Decision Yet Again on China’s Proposed Mega-Embassy in London
Head of UK Budget Watchdog Resigns After Premature Leak of Reeves’ Budget Report
Car-sharing giant Zipcar to exit UK market by end of 2025
Reports of Widespread Drone Deployment Raise Privacy and Security Questions in the UK
UK Signals Security Concerns Over China While Pursuing Stronger Trade Links
Google warns of AI “irrationality” just as Gemini 3 launch rattles markets
Top Consultancies Freeze Starting Salaries as AI Threatens ‘Pyramid’ Model
Macron Says Washington Pressuring EU to Delay Enforcement of Digital-Regulation Probes Against Meta, TikTok and X
UK’s DragonFire Laser Downs High-Speed Drones as £316m Deal Speeds Naval Deployment
UK Chancellor Rejects Claims She Misled Public on Fiscal Outlook Ahead of Budget
Starmer Defends Autumn Budget as Finance Chief Faces Accusations of Misleading Public Finances
EU Firms Struggle with 3,000-Hour Paperwork Load — While Automakers Fear De Facto 2030 Petrol Car Ban
White House launches ‘Hall of Shame’ site to publicly condemn media outlets for alleged bias
UK Budget’s New EV Mileage Tax Undercuts Case for Plug-In Hybrids
UK Government Launches National Inquiry into ‘Grooming Gangs’ After US Warning and Rising Public Outcry
Taylor Swift Extends U.K. Chart Reign as ‘The Fate of Ophelia’ Hits Six Weeks at No. 1
250 Still Missing in the Massive Fire, 94 Killed. One Day After the Disaster: Survivor Rescued on the 16th Floor
Trump: National Guard Soldier Who Was Shot in Washington Has Died; Second Soldier Fighting for His Life
UK Chancellor Reeves Defends Tax Rises as Essential to Reduce Child Poverty and Stabilise Public Finances
No Evidence Found for Claim That UK Schools Are Shifting to Teaching American English
European Powers Urge Israel to Halt West Bank Settler Violence Amid Surge in Attacks
"I Would Have Given Her a Kidney": She Lent Bezos’s Ex-Wife $1,000 — and Received Millions in Return
European States Approve First-ever Military-Grade Surveillance Network via ESA
UK to Slash Key Pension Tax Perk, Targeting High Earners Under New Budget
UK Government Announces £150 Annual Cut to Household Energy Bills Through Levy Reforms
UK Court Hears Challenge to Ban on Palestine Action as Critics Decry Heavy-Handed Measures
Investors Rush Into UK Gilts and Sterling After Budget Eases Fiscal Concerns
UK to Raise Online Betting Taxes by £1.1 Billion Under New Budget — Firms Warn of Fallout
Lamine Yamal? The ‘Heir to Messi’ Lost to Barcelona — and the Kingdom Is in a Frenzy
Warner Music Group Drops Suit Against Suno, Launches Licensed AI-Music Deal
HP to Cut up to 6,000 Jobs Globally as It Ramps Up AI Integration
MediaWorld Sold iPad Air for €15 — Then Asked Customers to Return Them or Pay More
UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer Promises ‘Full-Time’ Education for All Children as School Attendance Slips
UK Extends Sugar Tax to Sweetened Milkshakes and Lattes in 2028 Health Push
UK Government Backs £49 Billion Plan for Heathrow Third Runway and Expansion
UK Gambling Firms Report £1bn Surge in Annual Profits as Pressure Mounts for Higher Betting Taxes
UK Shares Advance Ahead of Budget as Financials and Consumer Staples Lead Gains
Domino’s UK CEO Andrew Rennie Steps Down Amid Strategic Reset
UK Economy Stalls as Reeves Faces First Budget Test
UK Economy’s Weak Start Adds Pressure on Prime Minister Starmer
UK Government Acknowledges Billionaire Exodus Amid Tax Rise Concerns
UK Budget 2025: Markets Brace as Chancellor Faces Fiscal Tightrope
UK Unveils Strategic Plan to Secure Critical Mineral Supply Chains
UK Taskforce Calls for Radical Reset of Nuclear Regulation to Cut Costs and Accelerate Build
×