London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Jun 24, 2026

Analysis: Boris Johnson's go-to economic boast obscures the painful truth

Analysis: Boris Johnson's go-to economic boast obscures the painful truth

Prime Minister Boris Johnson is fond of saying the United Kingdom has the fastest growing economy in the G7.

The prime minister can back up his claim with data published by Britain's Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Friday, which showed the United Kingdom had the fastest growing economy of the Group of Seven nations over last year as a whole.

UK gross domestic product — the broadest measure of economic activity — grew by 7.5% as activity bounced back with the lifting of coronavirus restrictions.

But those figures don't tell the whole story. The growth numbers are pumped up because the United Kingdom endured the deepest recession of any major developed economy in 2020 and its worst performance since 1921, providing a lower base for subsequent comparison.

Johnson's boast also doesn't reflect what happened in the final three months of last year. UK GDP expanded 1% in the fourth quarter, according to ONS data published Friday. That trailed the United States (1.7%) and Canada (1.6%), which are both in the G7.

Even those statistics obscure a larger truth: the United Kingdom is hurtling toward its worst cost of living crisis in 30 years, the Bank of England expects unemployment to rise next year and growth to be "subdued," taxes are going up and new post-Brexit import controls could slam foreign trade.

Short-term economic indicators have also been exceptionally volatile, reflecting the stop-start nature of business as coronavirus restrictions have come and gone. A better way to measure performance is to compare current economic output with levels before the pandemic arrived. Here, the United Kingdom is languishing near the middle of the G7 ranking.

In the fourth quarter of 2021, the UK economy was still 0.4% smaller than it was before the pandemic struck, according to the ONS. By the same measure, the US economy has expanded 3.1%, while France and Canada have grown by 0.9% and 0.2%, respectively.

The German and Italian economies have not yet achieved their pre-pandemic size, and comparable data for Japan is not yet available.

Johnson may be able to repeat his G7 claim without being slapped down by fact checkers. But it's less likely to land well with the British people, whose average disposable incomes after tax are forecast to decline by 2% this year.

UK inflation hit 5.4% in December, its highest rate since 1992, according to official statistics released last month. Wages advanced at an annual rate of just 3.8% in December, leaving households with less purchasing power.

A volunteer collects donated items from shelving racks at a food bank in Colchester, England, on January 20.


Brits are already feeling rising costs. Some 85% of people have noticed an increase in the costs of groceries, according to a January survey conducted by YouGov. Roughly 35% say their housing costs, including rent and mortgages, have risen. Nearly 75% have noticed higher fuel prices.

The cost of living crisis is about to get much worse.

The Bank of the England expects inflation to surge higher over the coming months and peak at 7.25% in April. In early February, the central bank hiked interest rates for a second time in three months in an effort to rein in rising prices, increasing pressure on homeowners with variable rate mortgages. More interest rate hikes are expected later this year.

"We are facing a squeeze on real incomes this year," central bank boss Andrew Bailey told reporters last week. "It is necessary for us to ... raise interest rates because if we don't do that, we think that the effects will be worse."

Energy bills will go even higher in April, when regulators increase a cap on how much consumers can be charged to heat and light their homes by 54%.

The change means that the typical consumer will see their energy bills increase by £693 ($939) to £1,971 ($2,670) per year. Some of that will be offset by a cut in local taxes, and a discount that will have to be repaid over 5 years.

The Joseph Rowntree Foundation said some families on low incomes would face annual bills as high as £2,326 ($3,152) from April, while the Resolution Foundation warned that the number of households in "fuel stress" — those spending more than 10% of the family budget on energy — would double to 5 million.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson leaves 10 Downing Street on February 9.


Other government policies are adding to the burden on households.

Johnson is pushing ahead with plans to hike the National Insurance payroll tax in April in order to fund health and social care. The hike should help the elderly, but the tax is regressive, meaning higher earners pay a lower marginal rate than the poor.

And in early October, the government cut Universal Credit — a benefit claimed by those out-of-work or earning low incomes — back to its pre-pandemic level. More than 5.8 million people lost £20 ($28) a week, although the government later boosted the income of some people who work and receive the benefit.

One more big economic risk looms. The government has yet to implement fully the border checks that are needed as a result of Brexit, and there is considerable doubt over whether preparations are on track despite three previous delays.

The UK Parliament's influential Public Accounts Committee said this week that "there remains much to be done to introduce import controls." The trade group Logistics UK echoed that assessment, warning that delays at the border could cause a backup of trucks that would stretch for 29 miles.

Taken together, the combination of spiraling costs, taxes and risks to trade leave the prime minister with little reason to boast about the state of the UK economy.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Announces New Military Infrastructure at Catterick to Support Engineer Regiment Relocation
University of Reading Ranked Among Top 100 Globally for Sustainability Impact
UK Launches Counter-Fraud Taskforce to Investigate Covid Loan Scams
UK Government Introduces Customs and Tax Reforms to Support High Street Retailers
Jonathan Haskel Nominated as Chair of the UK Office for Budget Responsibility
UK Government Expands Powers to Recover Benefit Debt and Tackle Welfare Fraud
Labour Party Leadership Contest Intensifies as Andy Burnham and Ed Miliband Clash Over Economic Direction
Rail Operators Urge Essential Travel Only as Extreme Heat Threatens UK Network Stability
United Kingdom Issues Red Extreme Heat Warning as Temperatures Forecast to Reach 38°C
Keir Starmer Announces Resignation as UK Prime Minister Amid Deepening Political Instability
UK Biotechnology Sector Receives Increased Public Funding to Support Regional Growth
Police Chiefs Update National Protest Management Guidelines Amid Rising Demonstration Activity
UK Aviation Regulator Expands Support for Regional Airports to Strengthen Domestic Routes
CMA Launches Investigation Into Retail Pricing Across UK Grocery Sector
UK Energy Operator Warns of Winter Supply Pressures Despite Stable Overall Grid Outlook
UK Research Council Expands Funding for Regional Biotechnology and Life Sciences Clusters
UK Compensation Scheme for Post Office Horizon Scandal Reaches 80 Percent Completion
Police Chiefs Issue Updated National Guidance on Managing Large Public Demonstrations
UK Expands Regional Airport Funding Scheme to Boost Domestic Connectivity
UK Competition Watchdog Launches Inquiry Into Grocery Pricing Practices
National Grid Warns of Tight Energy Management Needs During Upcoming Winter Peak Demand
UK Education Department Introduces National Standards for AI Use in Secondary Schools
UK High Court Clears North Sea Carbon Capture Project After Final Legal Challenge Fails
Northern Ireland Leaders Hold Emergency Talks on Trade Disruption Under Windsor Framework
Welsh Government Moves to Expand Social Housing in Response to Severe Affordability Pressures
UK Economy Sees Unexpected Rise in Business Investment in Second Quarter, ONS Data Shows
Scottish Government Unveils Multi-Billion Pound Investment Plan for Renewable Energy and Grid Expansion
UK and EU Agree Enhanced Defence Cooperation Pact Covering Intelligence and North Sea Security
Prime Minister Orders Independent Review of NHS Performance After Record Waiting Lists
Bank of England Holds Interest Rates at 5 Percent as Services Inflation Remains Persistent
UK Heatwave Disrupts Transport, Healthcare and Public Services as Red Weather Alerts Expand Nationwide
Barclays Warns of Growing Cyber Risk Divide Between Large UK Firms and Micro Businesses
European Defence Plans Including Ukraine Integration Prompt UK Strategic Reassessment
UK Equity Markets React as US–Iran Peace Roadmap Eases Oil Price Pressures
United Kingdom Expands Global Clean Energy Partnerships With Brazil, Morocco and Tanzania
Lord David Frost Urges Incoming UK Leadership to Abandon EU Regulatory Reset Strategy
Housing Groups Support Amendment to Strengthen Fire and Gas Safety Access Powers in Social Housing
South London NHS Estates Staff Ballot on Industrial Action Over Pay Structures in Hospital Maintenance Services
United Kingdom Government Invests £60 Million in AI Research Labs at Oxford and University College London
Barclays Cyber Security Report Highlights Rising Threat Exposure Among UK Small Businesses in AI-Driven Attacks
UK Met Office Heatwave Triggers Transport Warnings as Rail Operators Urge Cancellations Amid Infrastructure Strain
South London NHS Estates Workers Ballot for Strike Action Over Pay Disputes Across Major London Hospitals
Barclays Warns of Severe Cyber Security Gap Between Large Corporations and Small Businesses in the United Kingdom
United Kingdom Government Allocates £60 Million for Artificial Intelligence Research Laboratories at Oxford and UCL
National Health Service Approves Teplizumab Treatment to Delay Onset of Type One Diabetes in First European Rollout
Met Office Issues Rare Red Extreme Heat Warning Across London, South East and West Midlands as Transport and Health Systems Face Disruption
Prime Minister Keir Starmer Resigns After Labour Party Revolt Following Economic Stagnation and Local Election Losses
United Kingdom Economy Contracts for Second Consecutive Month as Private Sector Weakens and Job Loss Fears Rise
Taxpayer Support Grows for Higher Digital Levies on Multinational Tech Companies
Bank of England Signals Caution Over Inflation Despite Easing Energy Prices
×