London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, May 13, 2026

Closing the Brexit curtains: It's either Boris' Deal or No Deal

Closing the Brexit curtains: It's either Boris' Deal or No Deal

Boris Johnson's Brexit deal is the best yet for the UK - but it's still a bad deal. Politicians on all sides are heading towards the biggest EU showdown of the century on Saturday, and they've got some tough thinking to do.

I always believe that it's best to read what you're talking about first, and then comment upon it afterwards. Politicians quite often do the opposite, like when Jeremy Corbyn famously didn't even bother to read Theresa May's deal before commenting on it.

Having read Johnson's deal, both the Withdrawal Agreement and the new Political Declaration that goes with it, I'm a little stuck - and I'm not the only one. For all the insistence from the European Union and many UK opposition politicians that there would be no meaningful changes to the deal, the prime minister has clearly negotiated a substantially different deal with the EU.

This is still, from a Brexiteer's perspective, a bad deal, but unlike May's deal, it's not an absolute disaster. It allows the UK to chart a different course to the EU if we so desire. Brexiteers should at the very least consider this to be better than remaining in the EU, and recognize that it is more than May managed to achieve when she was prime minister.

It's a 'Jekyll and Hyde' Brexit deal, unlike May's - which was only Hyde. There are still concerns over the future trading relationship, but phrases like 'continued regulatory alignment' - which would force the UK to continue to legislate in line with new EU laws - are conspicuous in their absence.

The wording on fisheries is deliberately vague. It could mean almost anything. Parts of the Political Declaration require the UK and the EU to 'consider' and 'explore' all kinds of things, from the EU's Space Programme to carbon-trading schemes and EU defence policies, but there's no obligation for us to actually sign on the dotted line. The UK can ignore any and all of that if it wishes. More importantly, the backstop - which could have kept us tied to the EU in perpetuity - has been replaced.


The negatives still persist.

There are worrying provisions requiring co-operation on state aid and public procurement rules. The text suggests that the EU probably won't allow a long-term trading arrangement that allows the UK to deregulate and improve our own competitiveness. And, as ever, there's Northern Ireland. Scrapping the backstop has seen other customs provisions put in its place, which might require some goods to be checked when they cross the Irish Sea. No wonder the DUP is not (at least yet) prepared to vote for it.

This afternoon, Jean-Claude Juncker was dismissive about the possibility of a Brexit extension - and the Benn Act may not be sufficient to convince the EU27 to unanimously support a delay. We are hopefully reaching a High Noon moment in which the UK will leave the EU on October 31st, either with this New Deal or No Deal - discounting, for the moment, any possibility of Parliament legislating to cancel Brexit altogether. In a nutshell, this whole deal leaves everyone with a dilemma:

• Can a Brexiteer who supports a No-Deal Brexit really risk voting against this deal? Would that risk opening the door to a Parliamentary attempt to scrap Brexit altogether before October 31st?

• Can Remainers vote against this deal, knowing that such an action would potentially lead to a No-Deal Brexit?

• Can the former Conservative MPs who were kicked out for voting against No Deal vote against this, or is there a way back into the Party for them if they support it?

• Can the more moderate Labour MPs risk defying their party whip to vote in favour of this deal, if there's a chance that they might meet the same fate as the Conservatives who were suspended for doing the same?

There won't be many politicians in the UK who will sleep easily tonight. There will be a showdown in Parliament on Saturday, and it's not at all clear which way it's going to go. Politics has been chaotic in the United Kingdom for years, but perhaps the final act of this saga has finally begun.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
The Great Western Exit: Why Best Citizens Are Fleeing the Rich World [PODCAST]
The New Robber Barons of Intelligence: Are AI Bosses More Powerful Than Rockefeller?
The End of the Old Order [Podcast]
Britain’s Democracy Is Now a Costume
The AI Gold Rush Is Coming for America’s Last Open Spaces [Podcast]
The Pentagon’s AI Squeeze: Eight Tech Giants Get In, Anthropic Gets Shut Out [Podcast]
The War Map: Professor Jiang’s Dark Theory of Iran, Trump, China, Russia, Israel, and the Coming Global Shock [Podcast]
Labour Is No Longer a National Party [Podcast]
AI Isn’t Stealing Your Job. It’s Dismantling It Piece by Piece.
Lawyers vs Engineers: Why China Builds While America Litigates [Podcast]
Churchill’s Glass: The Drunk, the Doctor, and the Myth Britain Refuses to Sober Up From
Apple issues an unusual warning: this is how your iPhone can be hacked without you doing anything
Kennedy’s Quiet War on Antidepressants Sparks Alarm Across America’s Medical Establishment
The Met Gala Meets the Age of Billionaire Backlash
Russian Oligarch’s Superyacht Crosses Hormuz via Iran-Controlled Route
Gunfire Disrupts White House Correspondents’ Dinner as Trump Is Evacuated
A Leak, a King, and a Fracturing Alliance
Inside the Gates Foundation Turmoil: Layoffs, Scrutiny, and the Cost of Reputational Risk
UK Biobank Breach Exposes Health Data of 500,000, Listed for Sale on Chinese Platform
KPMG Cuts Around 10% of US Audit Partners After Failed Exit Push
French Police Probe Suspected Weather-Data Tampering After Unusual Polymarket Bets on Paris Temperatures
CATL Unveils Revolutionary EV Battery Tech: 1000 km Range and 7-Minute Charging Ahead of Beijing Auto Show
Crypto Scammers Capitalize on Maritime Chaos Near the Strait of Hormuz: A Rising Threat to Shipping Companies
Changi Airport: How Singapore Engineered the World’s Most Efficient Travel Experience
Power Dynamics: Apple’s Leadership Shakeup, Geopolitical Risks in the Strait of Hormuz, and Europe's Energy Strategy Amidst Global Challenges
Apple's Leadership Transition: Can New CEO John Ternus Navigate AI Challenges and Geopolitical Pressures?
Italy’s €100K Tax Gambit: Europe’s Soft Power Tax Haven
News Roundup
Microsoft lost 2.5 millions users (French government) to Linux
Privacy Problems in Microsoft Windows OS
News roundup
Péter András Magyar and the Strategic Reset of Hungary
Hungary After the Landslide — A Strategic Reset in Europe
Meghan Markle Plans Exclusive Women-Focused Retreat During Australia Visit
Starmer and Trump Hold Strategic Talks on Securing Strait of Hormuz Amid Rising Tensions
Unofficial Australia Visit by Prince Harry and Meghan Expected to Stir Tensions with Royal Circles
Pipeline Attack Cuts Significant Share of Saudi Arabia’s Oil Export Capacity
UK Stocks Rise on Ceasefire Momentum and Renewed Focus on Diplomacy
UK to Hold Further Strategic Talks on Strait of Hormuz Security
Starmer Voices Frustration as Global Tensions Drive Up UK Energy Costs
UK Students Voice Concern Over Proposal for Automatic Military Draft Registration
Rising Volatility Drives Uncertainty in UK Fuel and Petrol Prices
UK Moves to Deploy ‘Skyhammer’ Anti-Drone System to Strengthen Airspace Defense
New Analysis Explores UK Budget Mechanics in ‘Behind the Blue’ Feature
Man Arrested After Four Die in Channel Crossing Tragedy
UK Tightens Immigration Framework with New Sponsor Rules and Fee Increases
UK Foreign Secretary Highlights Impact of Intensified Strikes in Lebanon
UK Urges Inclusion of Lebanon in US-Iran Ceasefire Framework
UK Stocks Ease as Ceasefire Doubts in Middle East Weigh on Investor Confidence
UK Reassesses Cloud Strategy Amid Criticism Over Limited Support Measures
×