London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Oct 22, 2026

China’s dream of using Hong Kong as model for Taiwan’s future is dead

China’s dream of using Hong Kong as model for Taiwan’s future is dead

Election is victory for liberal democracy but probably made the region a bit more dangerous
In a private meeting with the Financial Times last May, the president of Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen, was far from confident she would secure her party’s nomination, let alone win a second term.

But on Saturday she led her Democratic Progressive party to crushing victory with a landslide in presidential and legislative elections. The person Ms Tsai should thank above all others is the embattled chief executive of Hong Kong, Carrie Lam.

Almost as soon as Hong Kong’s massive pro-democracy protests erupted into violent confrontations between demonstrators and police in June, Ms Tsai began to rise in the polls.

The more harshly Hong Kong’s Beijing-appointed government cracked down on the protests, the more her popularity increased.

The demonstrations were initially triggered by Ms Lam’s plan to introduce legislation that would have allowed a man who murdered his girlfriend in Taiwan to be extradited to the self-ruled island. But it would also have allowed people wanted in mainland China to be sent to face Communist party-controlled courts that are notorious for miscarriages of justice and political prosecutions.

Ms Lam’s real intention was revealed when she insisted on pushing ahead with the legislation even after Taiwan announced it would not co-operate or accept the accused murderer’s return under the proposed law.

After months of increasingly violent and chaotic protest Ms Lam finally withdrew the bill, but by then the demonstrations had evolved into a much broader call for universal suffrage in the territory.

On the self-ruled island of Taiwan, the only place in the Chinese-speaking world with real democracy, Ms Tsai’s political resurrection was by then complete.

Before the Hong Kong demonstrations began she was polling around 30 per cent, while her main opponent, Kuomintang candidate Han Kuo-yu, who is seen as friendlier to China, was sitting above 50 per cent. On Saturday, Ms Tsai secured 57 per cent of the vote while Mr Han received around 38 per cent.

This astonishing swing was helped by very shrewd messaging that played on Taiwanese fears of being absorbed into an increasingly totalitarian People’s Republic of China.

“Today Hong Kong, tomorrow Taiwan,” was Ms Tsai’s warning to the Taiwanese people, contrasting her tough stance with her opponent’s appeasement of Beijing.

“The young people of Hong Kong have demonstrated with their lives, blood and tears that the ‘one country, two systems’ framework does not work,” Ms Tsai said at her final campaign rally on Friday night. “Tomorrow will be our turn to show the people of Hong Kong that the values of freedom and democracy will conquer all difficulties.”

It is clear the Communist party’s dream of using the former British colony as a model for Taiwan’s political future is now completely dead.

But that raises the question of whether Beijing would at some point try to take the island by force, something it has vowed to do if “necessary”.

Taiwan is already regarded as a key support base for the protest movement in Hong Kong. If the situation should escalate into a more violent insurgency it is likely Taiwan would continue to provide support, thereby raising the chances of a Chinese attack on the island.

There is no doubt Ms Tsai’s landslide is a victory for the forces of liberal democracy. But it has probably also made the region just a bit more dangerous.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Parliamentary Inquiry Highlights Urgent Need to Address Housing Shortage as Scottish Completions Hit Eleven-Year Low
United Kingdom and Singapore Sign Comprehensive Financial Agreement to Deepen Digital and Sustainable Market Ties
Greggs Announces Plan to Close Four Manufacturing Facilities and Cut Seven Hundred and Forty Jobs
International Monetary Fund Raises United Kingdom Economic Growth Forecast While Warning of Inflationary Pressures
Energy Security and Net Zero Committee Urges Government to Shift Policy Costs Onto Gas to Lower Household Bills
Housebuilding Across Scotland Plummets to Eleven-Year Low Despite Government Pledges to Tackle National Housing Emergency
Greggs Announces Factory Closures Across Northern England and Scotland Affecting Seven Hundred Forty Jobs
United Kingdom and Singapore Conclude Eleventh Financial Dialogue in Singapore to Deepen Cooperation on Digital Finance and Capital Markets
Energy Security and Net Zero Committee Urges Government to Shift Policy Costs to Gas Bills and Tap Windfall Profits to Lower Consumer Prices
British Broadcasting Corporation Announces Major Cost-Cutting Overhaul to Close Linear Broadcast Services for Television Channels BBC Three and BBC Scotland Alongside Digital Radio Station BBC Radio Four Extra
London Capital Markets Face Renewed Scrutiny After High-Profile Offerings Underperform Post-Listing
Green Party Wins Historic First Westminster Parliamentary By-Election in Gorton and Denton
Environment Secretary Emma Reynolds Unveils Sweeping Regulatory Overhaul for English Water Industry
United Kingdom Health Security Agency Confirms Thirty-Four Cases in Kent Meningitis Outbreak
Ministry of Defence Prepares Heat Pump Subsidy Cuts to Fund Urgent Military Modernization
British and European Union Officials Schedule Long-Awaited Bilateral Leaders Summit for November Twentieth
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey Urges Strict Fiscal Credibility to Protect British Bond Markets
United Kingdom Inflation Rises to Three Point One Percent Driven by Escalating Fuel Costs
Profit Warnings Among London-Listed Companies Reach Two-Year High Amid Global Energy Shocks
Chancellor John Healey Signals Targeted Tax Changes on Banks and London Corporate Offices Ahead of Budget
British Government Reallocates Twenty-Five Per Cent of International Climate Finance to Global Biodiversity Projects
Initial British Carbon Border Taxes Set to Undercut Parallel European Union Tariffs on Industrial Imports
Whitehall Prepares National Zero-Interest Loan Initiative to Accelerate Domestic Heat Pump and Solar Adoption
European Union Offers British Automakers Access to Hybrid Vehicle Trade Protections Subject to Strict Regulatory Alignment
British Probation Officers Threaten Widespread Industrial Action After Rejecting Five Per Cent Government Pay Offer
Microsoft Abandons Major British Artificial Intelligence Data Centre Citing Severe National Grid Power Constraints
United Kingdom Inflation Accelerates to Three Point Four Per Cent Ahead of Chancellor John Healey's Inaugural Autumn Budget
Surging Cloned Number Plates Severely Complicate Traffic Enforcement and Police Investigations
Mounting Opposition Challenges Planned Rollout of Autonomous Taxis Across London
Influential Think Tank Urges Rejoining European Union to Navigate Geopolitical Crises
Government Review Recommends Slashing Benefits to Fund Youth Employment Initiatives
Senior Minister Shabana Mahmood Seeks New Law Enforcement Pact With European Union
Airbus Executive Warns Britain Risks Losing Crucial Role in European Space Industry
Exorbitant Electricity Costs Push British Steelmakers to Worst Competitive Position in Three Years
British Food and Beverage Exports to European Union Collapse by Over a Third Since Brexit
Up to Twenty English Maternity Units Face Impending Closure Due to Safety and Staffing Crises
Government Declares Severe Drought Across Southern England Following Record Dry Spell
Corporate Profit Warnings Reach Two-Year High Amid Middle East Conflict and Rising Costs
International Monetary Fund Warns Chancellor John Healey Against Proposed Bank Tax Raid
Northern Ireland Secures Favorable Agricultural Export Agreement with European Union
Scottish Government Approves Major Offshore Floating Wind Farm Near Aberdeenshire
High Speed Two Rail Project Faces Three Billion Pound Cost Escalation on Initial Phase
National Health Service Warns of Winter Capacity Crisis Across English Hospitals
Tata Steel Confirms Two Thousand Job Cuts at Port Talbot to Fund Green Transition
Global Microchip Developer Announces Three Billion Pound Semiconductor Plant in Cambridge
United Kingdom Artificial Intelligence Safety Institute Proposes Mandatory Licensing for Generative Models
United Kingdom Commits Additional Long-Range Weapons and Air Defenses to Ukraine
British Chancellor Overhauls Infrastructure Financing to Bypass Borrowing Constraints
Bank of England Holds Benchmark Interest Rate at Four Point Five Percent
First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth Confirms Constitutional Discussions Over Welsh Independence During Initial Bilateral Call with Prime Minister
×