London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Jul 10, 2025

China’s dream of using Hong Kong as model for Taiwan’s future is dead

China’s dream of using Hong Kong as model for Taiwan’s future is dead

Election is victory for liberal democracy but probably made the region a bit more dangerous
In a private meeting with the Financial Times last May, the president of Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen, was far from confident she would secure her party’s nomination, let alone win a second term.

But on Saturday she led her Democratic Progressive party to crushing victory with a landslide in presidential and legislative elections. The person Ms Tsai should thank above all others is the embattled chief executive of Hong Kong, Carrie Lam.

Almost as soon as Hong Kong’s massive pro-democracy protests erupted into violent confrontations between demonstrators and police in June, Ms Tsai began to rise in the polls.

The more harshly Hong Kong’s Beijing-appointed government cracked down on the protests, the more her popularity increased.

The demonstrations were initially triggered by Ms Lam’s plan to introduce legislation that would have allowed a man who murdered his girlfriend in Taiwan to be extradited to the self-ruled island. But it would also have allowed people wanted in mainland China to be sent to face Communist party-controlled courts that are notorious for miscarriages of justice and political prosecutions.

Ms Lam’s real intention was revealed when she insisted on pushing ahead with the legislation even after Taiwan announced it would not co-operate or accept the accused murderer’s return under the proposed law.

After months of increasingly violent and chaotic protest Ms Lam finally withdrew the bill, but by then the demonstrations had evolved into a much broader call for universal suffrage in the territory.

On the self-ruled island of Taiwan, the only place in the Chinese-speaking world with real democracy, Ms Tsai’s political resurrection was by then complete.

Before the Hong Kong demonstrations began she was polling around 30 per cent, while her main opponent, Kuomintang candidate Han Kuo-yu, who is seen as friendlier to China, was sitting above 50 per cent. On Saturday, Ms Tsai secured 57 per cent of the vote while Mr Han received around 38 per cent.

This astonishing swing was helped by very shrewd messaging that played on Taiwanese fears of being absorbed into an increasingly totalitarian People’s Republic of China.

“Today Hong Kong, tomorrow Taiwan,” was Ms Tsai’s warning to the Taiwanese people, contrasting her tough stance with her opponent’s appeasement of Beijing.

“The young people of Hong Kong have demonstrated with their lives, blood and tears that the ‘one country, two systems’ framework does not work,” Ms Tsai said at her final campaign rally on Friday night. “Tomorrow will be our turn to show the people of Hong Kong that the values of freedom and democracy will conquer all difficulties.”

It is clear the Communist party’s dream of using the former British colony as a model for Taiwan’s political future is now completely dead.

But that raises the question of whether Beijing would at some point try to take the island by force, something it has vowed to do if “necessary”.

Taiwan is already regarded as a key support base for the protest movement in Hong Kong. If the situation should escalate into a more violent insurgency it is likely Taiwan would continue to provide support, thereby raising the chances of a Chinese attack on the island.

There is no doubt Ms Tsai’s landslide is a victory for the forces of liberal democracy. But it has probably also made the region just a bit more dangerous.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Severe Heatwave Claims 2,300 Lives Across Europe
NVIDIA Achieves Historic Milestone as First Company Valued at $4 Trillion
Declining Beer Consumption Signals Cultural Shift in Germany
Linda Yaccarino Steps Down as CEO of X After Two Years
US Imposes New Tariffs on Brazilian Exports Amid Political Tensions
Azerbaijan and Armenia are on the brink of a historic peace deal.
Emails Leaked: How Passenger Luggage Became a Side Income for Airport Workers
Polish MEP: “Dear Leftists - China is laughing at you, Russia is laughing, India is laughing”
BRICS Expands Membership with Indonesia and Ten New Partner Countries
Weinstein Victim’s Lawyer Says MeToo Movement Still Strong
U.S. Enacts Sweeping Tax and Spending Legislation Amid Trade Policy Shifts
Football Mourns as Diogo Jota and Brother André Silva Laid to Rest in Portugal
Labour Expected to Withdraw Support for Special Needs Funding Model
Leaked Audio Reveals Tory Aide Defending DEI Record
Elon Musk Founds a Party Following a Poll on X: "You Wanted It – You Got It!"
London Stock Exchange Faces Historic Low in Initial Public Offerings
A new online platform has emerged in the United Kingdom, specifically targeting Muslim men seeking virgin brides
Trump Celebrates Independence Day with B-2 Flyover and Signs Controversial Legislation
Boris Johnson Urges Conservatives to Ignore Farage
SNP Ordered to Update Single-Sex Space Guidance Within Days
Starmer Set to Reject Calls for Wealth Taxes
Stolen Century-Old Rolls-Royce Recovered After Hotel Theft
Macron Presses Starmer to Recognise Palestinian State
Labour Delayed Palestine Action Ban Over Riot Concerns
Swinney’s Tax Comments ‘Offensive to Scots’, Say Tories
High Street Retailers to Enforce Bans on Serial Shoplifters
Music Banned by Henry VIII to Be Performed After 500 Years
Steve Coogan Says Working Class Is Being ‘Ethnically Cleansed’
Home Office Admits Uncertainty Over Visa Overstayer Numbers
JD Vance Questions Mandelson Over Reform Party’s Rising Popularity
Macron to Receive Windsor Carriage Ride in Royal Gesture
Labour Accused of ‘Hammering’ Scots During First Year in Power
BBC Head of Music Stood Down Amid Bob Vylan Controversy
Corbyn Eyes Hard-Left Challenge to Starmer’s Leadership
London Tube Trains Suspended After Major Fire Erupts Nearby
Richard Kemp: I Felt Safer in Israel Under Attack Than in the UK
Cyclist Says Police Cited Human Rights Act for Riding No-Handed
China’s Central Bank Consults European Peers on Low-Rate Strategies
AI Raises Alarms Over Long-Term Job Security
Saudi Arabia Maintains Ties with Iran Despite Israel Conflict
Musk Battles to Protect Tesla Amid Trump Policy Threats
Air France-KLM Acquires Majority Stake in Scandinavian Airlines
UK Educators Sound Alarm on Declining Child Literacy
Shein Fined €40 Million in France Over Misleading Discounts
Brazil’s Lula Visits Kirchner During Argentina House Arrest
Trump Scores Legislative Win as House Passes Tax Reform Bill
Keir Starmer Faces Criticism After Rocky First Year in Power
DJI Launches Heavy-Duty Coaxial Quadcopter with 80 kg Lift Capacity
U.S. Senate Approves Major Legislation Dubbed the 'Big Beautiful Bill'
Largest Healthcare Fraud Takedown in U.S. History Announced by DOJ
×