London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Oct 31, 2025

Can the aviation industry really go carbon neutral by 2050?

Can the aviation industry really go carbon neutral by 2050?

Critics have dubbed the sector’s Net Zero pledge to become fully sustainable as greenwash

Like all great pledges, it is just the right side of implausible. The UK aviation sector this week committed to making flying “net zero” by 2050, wiping out its carbon emissions despite taking more than 100 million extra passengers into the air each year.

At a celebratory event in London, the bosses of airports, airlines and aircraft manufacturers queued to scrawl their signatures on a giant Net Zero pledge card from the Sustainable Aviation [SA] campaign.

Greenpeace described it as greenwash. But aviation figures insist the ambition is genuine. John Holland-Kaye, the Heathrow airport chief executive, says: “I imagine it’s like it is for alcoholics. The first step is to admit we have a problem – and then do something about it. I’m not sure what the 10 points on the AA [Alcoholics Anonymous] programme are, but you can find the equivalent in the SA roadmap.”

The steps certainly involve a leap of faith, in future fuels and aircraft technology, and human capacity to endlessly offset emissions. Just how does a growing industry plan to reduce its annual footprint from just over 36m tonnes of CO2 to net zero in three decades’ time?


Solution: newer, more efficient planes
Saving: 23.5m tonnes CO2

Aircraft such as Boeing’s 787 or Airbus’s A350 already emit significantly less than the older jets they are replacing, through lighter materials and more efficient engines. Sustainable Aviation anticipates that emissions will drop by about 30% on routes operated by Boeing 747 jumbos as they are phased out within a decade. The next iteration of the manufacturers’ short-haul workhorses are supposed to be 10%-15% more efficient – demonstrated with the A320neo superseding A320s, although the disastrous introduction of the grounded Boeing 737 Max has delayed airline plans to replace older 737s.

Altogether different types of propulsion will be in operation by the 2030s, manufacturers believe. But while new electric planes could revolutionise regional flights, and hybrid-electric could manage short-haul flying, their contribution to cutting UK emissions – about 65% of which hail from flights of more than 1,000 miles – will be comparatively minor by 2050, SA admits.


Solution: synthetic and sustainable jet fuel
Saving: 14.4m tonnes CO2

“We’re not going to be electrifying a London-Singapore A380 for a long time, if ever,” says Paul Stein, chief technology officer of aircraft engine maker Rolls-Royce. “But sustainable fuels can work on the engines we have today, and the concept has been proved.”

Creating the necessary volume is the tricky bit. Hopes have been pinned on new schemes, such as the new British Airways-backed plant to create jet fuel from household waste. Stein says Rolls-Royce has been exploring whether a small modular nuclear reactor could be used in a synthetic fuel plant, making hydrocarbons in a way that would reduce CO2 to balance the emissions produced in flight.

“Right now we’re in analysis phase – understanding the economics … But what we’re going to see over the next 10 to 20 years is a lot of innovation and energy directed at creating sustainable aviation fuel.”


Solution: flying straighter and cleaner
Saving: 3.1m tonnes CO2

Progress in coordinating European airspace and air traffic control has been slow. But with better use of airspace, and coordinated flight paths, planes could be guided more efficiently from take-off to landing. The UK is in the midst of redesigning its airspace to help create better paths. More efficient operations, such as eliminating stacking, would help aircraft carry and burn less fuel.


Solution: offsetting emissions
Saving: 25.8m tonnes Co2

Environmental groups question the adequacy of offsetting – but the roadmap relies on it to account for more than a third of aviation’s projected emissions. Jonathan Counsell, head of sustainability at British Airways’ owner IAG, says: “We think that we can get to net zero without it – but not by 2050. This is a transitional measure.” The scepticism about offsetting means, Counsell admits, that any schemes have to be high-quality, independently verified and end in actual, additional carbon removal. For now, offsetting means reforestation or restoration of peatland bogs that absorb CO2 from the atmosphere; later, potentially, investment in new carbon capture and storage technologies.


Solution: pay more to fly, cut demand
Saving: 4.3m tonnes CO2

In an industry run by accountants, some jiggery-pokery was perhaps inevitable: emissions are “saved” as the 70% rise in passengers by 2050 is, in fact, slightly lower than the Department of Transport’s growth forecast growth.

“We will have to pay more to fly,” says Holland-Kaye. Sustainable fuels are more expensive, and the carbon price is expected to rise tenfold, he says. The price of all the offsetting that the industry will rely on will be passed on to consumers through higher fares, constraining demand.

So can this work? The industry urgently wants to present an alternative vision to the growing backlash against flying. Stein says: “Flying connects the world – it is a force for good in transporting people and goods, making sure our cultures have great levels of understanding.”

As an engineer, he says, he is optimistic that emissions can be brought down sooner than the roadmap pledge: “We have the engineering tools to do it; we need the will, and government help.”

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Shawbrook IPO Marks London’s Biggest UK Listing in Two Years
UK Government Split Over Backing Brazil’s $125 Billion Tropical Forest Fund Ahead of COP30
J.K. Rowling Condemns Glamour UK Feature of Nine Trans Women as 'Men Better at Being Women'
King Charles III Removes Prince Andrew’s Titles and Orders His Departure from Royal Lodge
UK Finance Minister Reeves Releases Email Correspondence to Clarify Rental-Licence Breach
UK and Vietnam Sign Landmark Migration Deal to Fast-Track Returns of Irregular Arrivals
UK Drug-Pricing Overhaul Essential for Life-Sciences Ambition, Says GSK Chief
Princesses Beatrice and Eugenie Temporarily Leave the UK Amid Their Parents’ Royal Fallout
UK Weighs Early End to Oil and Gas Windfall Tax as Reeves Seeks Investment Commitments
UK Retail Inflation Slows as Shop Prices Fall for First Time Since Spring
Next Raises Full-Year Profit Guidance After Strong Third-Quarter Performance
Reform UK’s Lee Anderson Admits to 'Gaming' Benefits System While Advocating Crackdown
United States and South Korea Conclude Major Trade Accord Worth $350 Billion
Hurricane Melissa Strikes Cuba After Devastating Jamaica With Record Winds
Vice President Vance to Headline Turning Point USA Campus Event at Ole Miss
U.S. Targets Maritime Narco-Routes While Border Pressure to Mexico Remains Limited
Bill Gates at 70: “I Have a Real Fear of Artificial Intelligence – and Also Regret”
Elon Musk Unveils Grokipedia: An AI-Driven Alternative to Wikipedia
Saudi Arabia Unveils Vision for First-Ever "Sky Stadium" Suspended Over Desert Floor
Amazon Announces 14 000 Corporate Job Cuts as AI Investment Accelerates
UK Shop Prices Fall for First Time Since March, Food Leads the Decline
London Stock Exchange Group ADR (LNSTY) Earns Zacks Rank #1 Upgrade on Rising Earnings Outlook
Soap legend Tony Adams, long-time star of Crossroads, dies at 84
Rachel Reeves Signals Tax Increases Ahead of November Budget Amid £20-50 Billion Fiscal Gap
NatWest Past Gains of 314% Spotlight Opportunity — But Some Key Risks Remain
UK Launches ‘Golden Age’ of Nuclear with £38 Billion Sizewell C Approval
UK Announces £1.08 Billion Budget for Offshore Wind Auction to Boost 2030 Capacity
UK Seeks Steel Alliance with EU and US to Counter China’s Over-Capacity
UK Struggles to Balance China as Both Strategic Threat and Valued Trading Partner
Argentina’s Markets Surge as Milei’s Party Secures Major Win
British Journalist Sami Hamdi Detained by U.S. Authorities After Visa Revocation Amid Israel-Gaza Commentary
King Charles Unveils UK’s First LGBT+ Armed Forces Memorial at National Memorial Arboretum
At ninety-two and re-elected: Paul Biya secures eighth term in Cameroon amid unrest
Racist Incidents Against UK Nurses Surge by 55%
UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves Cites Shared Concerns With Trump Administration as Foundation for Early US-UK Trade Deal
Essentra plc: A Closer Look at a UK ‘Penny Stock’ Opportunity Amid Market Weakness
U.S. and China Near Deal to Avert Rare-Earth Export Controls Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit
Justin time: Justin Herbert Shields Madison Beer with Impressive Reflex at Lakers Game
Russia’s President Putin Declares Burevestnik Nuclear Cruise Missile Ready for Deployment
Giuffre’s Memoir Alleges Maxwell Claimed Sexual Act with Clooney
House Republicans Move to Strip NYC Mayoral Front-Runner Zohran Mamdani of U.S. Citizenship
Record-High Spoiled Ballots Signal Voter Discontent in Ireland’s 2025 Presidential Election
Philippines’ Taal Volcano Erupts Overnight with 2.4 km Ash Plume
Albania’s Virtual AI 'Minister' Diella Set to 'Birth' Eighty-Three Digital Assistants for MPs
Tesla Unveils Vision for Optimus V3 as ‘Biggest Product of All Time’, Including Surgical Capabilities
Francis Ford Coppola Auctions Luxury Watches After Self-Financed Film Flop
Convicted Sex Offender Mistakenly Freed by UK Prison Service Arrested in London
United States and China Begin Constructive Trade Negotiations Ahead of Trump–Xi Summit
U.S. Treasury Sanctions Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro over Drug-Trafficking Allegations
Miss USA Crowns Nebraska’s Audrey Eckert Amid Leadership Overhaul
×