London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Saturday, Jun 21, 2025

Can 'earthquake diplomacy' help NATO chances for Sweden and Finland?

Can 'earthquake diplomacy' help NATO chances for Sweden and Finland?

In the hours after two massive earthquakes hit southern Turkey, the well-oiled wheels of humanitarian assistance started turning in Sweden and Finland.

The Nordic nations are locked in something of a stalemate with Ankara over their NATO memberships -- as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan holds up the process, demanding that Stockholm and Helsinki meet strict criteria before moving forward with ratification.

So could 'earthquake diplomacy' soften Turkey's stance towards the NATO applicants?

It's worked before in the region.

Back in 1999 a powerful quake hit near the Turkish city of İzmit, and the Greeks were among the first to respond with aid, despite decades of enmity between the two neighbours. A few months later when a magnitude 6.0 earthquake hit Athens, the Turks reciprocated with help.

The show of neighbourly good faith led to Greece dropping its objections on Turkey becoming an EU candidate country -- something policy makers in Finland and Sweden will be hoping to see repeated.


What aid have Sweden and Finland given?


The Swedes have so far given €3.3 million in humanitarian support, and sent more than 50 search and rescue experts, search dogs, and medical teams to Turkey.

“The core support that Sweden is already contributing makes a big difference on the ground in Türkiye and Syria," said Sweden's Minister for International Development Cooperation Johan Forssell.

Forssell said his government acted "swiftly and resolutely" but Dr Paul Levin at Stockholm University's Institute for Turkish Studies said they could have moved faster.

"Sweden was late providing aid."

"I don't think that's a lack of trying or will, but that Sweden is not good at swift disaster response," he told Euronews, citing critical Royal Commissions into official responses to the 2004 Asia tsunami, and COVID-19 pandemic.

"I think we are unfortunately not good at disaster response," Levin said.

On the EU level, Sweden -- which currently holds the rotating presidency of the European Council -- convened the bloc's Integrated Political Crisis Response mechanism last week, to coordinate all EU support for both Turkey and Syria at political level.

Swedish PM Ulf Kristersson and Ursula von der Leyen also announced they'll organise an international donor conference for Turkey and Syria in March.

In Finland, the government response has been fairly fast and robust, and loudly telegraphed to Ankara.

Helsinki provided heated emergency accommodation, including tents and stoves, for 3,000 people; and coordinated delivery of supplies through NATO.

The Finns have also sent search and rescue experts, and also contribute multilaterally through the UN's Central Emergency Response Fund, which has so far given $50 million (€46.65 million).

"Tens of thousands of people have died and the destruction is very extensive. The need for emergency accommodation in the area hit by the earthquake is huge," said Finland's Interior Minister Krista Mikkonen.

"By sending material assistance, Finland aims to help people meet their basic needs. It is important that we provide help to the earthquake area as soon as possible."

Left wing protesters against government's handling of earthquake response, in Istanbul, Turkey, Monday, Feb. 13, 2023.


What's the situation in Ankara?

Whether Turkey's government has the bandwidth to handle NATO applications during a time of unprecedented crisis is debatable.

With a general election still scheduled for 14 May, Erdoğan had been using Sweden (and to a lesser extent, Finland) as a political straw man, painting the country as a place that harboured terrorists and as a risk to Turkey's national security.

If the election is somehow postponed, Erdogan might still need a bogeyman as a distraction to mounting political problems at home, a tactic that may not work so well a second time.

"The NATO news in Finland has not fully taken into account how this massive human catastrophe has changed the Turkish political landscape and discussion," explained Ozan Yanar, a Finnish politician who was born in Turkey, and served as a Greens MP from 2015-2019.

"Right now all the Turkish focus is on these earthquakes, and it will stay on earthquakes for a very long time," Yanar told Euronews.

Yanar said he thinks it unlikely any Turkish politician would try to shift the focus away from any official failings in earthquake preparedness or response, as they would find themselves "in the midst of huge political criticism."

"People are angry Turkey was not ready for this, and the state actions after the earthquakes have been very slow. People would be harshly disappointed and criticise the regime if they would start to speak about NATO, which is not the main topic in Turkey right now," said Yanar, who is running for parliament again in Finland's spring elections.

Rescue workers stand on a collapsed building in Adiyaman, southern Turkey, Monday, Feb. 13, 2023.


What are the chances of 1999-style earthquake diplomacy?

Paul Levin from Stockholm University thinks the chances are low that anything Sweden and Finland do to help with humanitarian aid will move the needle for Turkey on ratifying NATO membership.

"I just dont see any real impact in terms of public relations on the Turkish side," he said bluntly, describing a country currently in turmoil, with a "messy" political situation.

Quite the opposite: "If Erdogan sees he has been hurt by this, and sees he won't be able to win the election, he has a strong incentive to pospone it," said Levin.

"The more desperate he becomes politically, the more appealing those kind of tactics will be. I think he will do just about anything to get re-elected."

That could mean continuing to demonise Stockholm in particular, for failing to deport Kurds that Turkey says are terror suspects.

Ankara wants Finland and Sweden to deport some 130 "terrorists" before it will approve their bids to join NATO. Erdogan declared in January that the Nordic countries must "hand over your terrorists," with Sweden saying Turkey had made demands that could not -- and would not -- be met.

"Maybe it's a bit early to speculate what will happen, but so far I have not seen any of the positive outcomes of diplomacy," said Levin.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Political Turmoil Resurfaces in Belgium Amid Economic Concerns
Fed policymakers divided on timing of interest rate cuts
Trump signals imminent agreement with Harvard University
Inheritance tax referendum alarms Swiss billionaire community
Japan cancels bilateral security meeting amid US defence demands
AI skeptic Emily Bender warns that ‘the emperor has no clothes’
Israel Confirms Assassination of Quds Force Commander in Tehran
16 Billion Login Credentials Leaked in Unprecedented Cybersecurity Breach
Senate hearing on who was 'really running' Biden White House kicks off
Iranian Military Officers Reportedly Seek Contact with Reza Pahlavi, Signal Intent to Defect
FBI and Senate Investigate Allegations of Chinese Plot to Influence the 2020 Election in Biden’s Favor Using Fake U.S. Driver’s Licenses
Vietnam Emerges as Luxury Yacht Destination for Ultra‑Rich
Plans to Sell Dutch Embassy in Bangkok Face Local Opposition
China's Iranian Oil Imports Face Disruption Amid Escalating Middle East Tensions
Trump's $5 Million 'Trump Card' Visa Program Draws Nearly 70,000 Applicants
DGCA Finds No Major Safety Concerns in Air India's Boeing 787 Fleet
Airlines Reroute Flights Amid Expanding Middle East Conflict Zones
Elon Musk's xAI Seeks $9.3 Billion in Funding Amid AI Expansion
Trump Demands Iran's Unconditional Surrender Amid Escalating Conflict
Israeli Airstrike Targets Iranian State TV in Central Tehran
President Trump is leaving the G7 summit early and has ordered the National Security Council to the Situation Room
Taiwan Imposes Export Ban on Chips to Huawei and SMIC
Israel has just announced plans to strike Tehran again, and in response, Trump has urged people to evacuate
Netanyahu Signals Potential Regime Change in Iran
Juncker Criticizes EU Inaction on Trump Tariffs
EU Proposes Ban on New Russian Gas Contracts
Analysts Warn Iran May Resort to Unconventional Warfare
Iranian Regime Faces Existential Threat Amid Conflict
Energy Infrastructure Becomes War Zone in Middle East
UK Home Secretary Apologizes Over Child Grooming Failures
Trump Organization Launches 5G Mobile Network and Golden Handset
Towcester Hosts 2025 English Greyhound Derby Amid Industry Scrutiny
Gary Oldman and David Beckham Knighted in King's Birthday Honours
Over 30,000 Lightning Strikes Recorded Across UK During Overnight Storms
Princess of Wales Returns to Public Duties at Trooping the Colour
Red Arrows Use Sustainable Fuel in Historic Trooping the Colour Flypast
Former Welsh First Minister Addresses Unionist Concerns Over Irish Language
Iran Signals Openness to Nuclear Negotiations Amid Ongoing Regional Tensions
France Bars Israeli Arms Companies from Paris Defense Expo
King Charles Leads Tribute to Air India Crash Victims at Trooping the Colour
Jack Pitchford Embarks on 200-Mile Walk to Support Stem Cell Charity
Surrey Hikers Take on Challenge of Climbing 11 Peaks in a Single Day
UK Deploys RAF Jets to Middle East Amid Israel-Iran Tensions
Two Skydivers Die in 'Tragic Accident' at Devon Airfield
Sainsbury's and Morrisons Accused of Displaying Prohibited Tobacco Ads
UK Launches National Inquiry into Grooming Gangs
Families Seek Closure After Air India Crash
Gold Emerges as Global Safe Haven Amid Uncertainty
Trump Reports $57 Million Earnings from Crypto Venture
Trump's Military Parade Sparks Concerns Over Authoritarianism
×