London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Sunday, Jun 01, 2025

Can 'earthquake diplomacy' help NATO chances for Sweden and Finland?

Can 'earthquake diplomacy' help NATO chances for Sweden and Finland?

In the hours after two massive earthquakes hit southern Turkey, the well-oiled wheels of humanitarian assistance started turning in Sweden and Finland.

The Nordic nations are locked in something of a stalemate with Ankara over their NATO memberships -- as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan holds up the process, demanding that Stockholm and Helsinki meet strict criteria before moving forward with ratification.

So could 'earthquake diplomacy' soften Turkey's stance towards the NATO applicants?

It's worked before in the region.

Back in 1999 a powerful quake hit near the Turkish city of İzmit, and the Greeks were among the first to respond with aid, despite decades of enmity between the two neighbours. A few months later when a magnitude 6.0 earthquake hit Athens, the Turks reciprocated with help.

The show of neighbourly good faith led to Greece dropping its objections on Turkey becoming an EU candidate country -- something policy makers in Finland and Sweden will be hoping to see repeated.


What aid have Sweden and Finland given?


The Swedes have so far given €3.3 million in humanitarian support, and sent more than 50 search and rescue experts, search dogs, and medical teams to Turkey.

“The core support that Sweden is already contributing makes a big difference on the ground in Türkiye and Syria," said Sweden's Minister for International Development Cooperation Johan Forssell.

Forssell said his government acted "swiftly and resolutely" but Dr Paul Levin at Stockholm University's Institute for Turkish Studies said they could have moved faster.

"Sweden was late providing aid."

"I don't think that's a lack of trying or will, but that Sweden is not good at swift disaster response," he told Euronews, citing critical Royal Commissions into official responses to the 2004 Asia tsunami, and COVID-19 pandemic.

"I think we are unfortunately not good at disaster response," Levin said.

On the EU level, Sweden -- which currently holds the rotating presidency of the European Council -- convened the bloc's Integrated Political Crisis Response mechanism last week, to coordinate all EU support for both Turkey and Syria at political level.

Swedish PM Ulf Kristersson and Ursula von der Leyen also announced they'll organise an international donor conference for Turkey and Syria in March.

In Finland, the government response has been fairly fast and robust, and loudly telegraphed to Ankara.

Helsinki provided heated emergency accommodation, including tents and stoves, for 3,000 people; and coordinated delivery of supplies through NATO.

The Finns have also sent search and rescue experts, and also contribute multilaterally through the UN's Central Emergency Response Fund, which has so far given $50 million (€46.65 million).

"Tens of thousands of people have died and the destruction is very extensive. The need for emergency accommodation in the area hit by the earthquake is huge," said Finland's Interior Minister Krista Mikkonen.

"By sending material assistance, Finland aims to help people meet their basic needs. It is important that we provide help to the earthquake area as soon as possible."

Left wing protesters against government's handling of earthquake response, in Istanbul, Turkey, Monday, Feb. 13, 2023.


What's the situation in Ankara?

Whether Turkey's government has the bandwidth to handle NATO applications during a time of unprecedented crisis is debatable.

With a general election still scheduled for 14 May, Erdoğan had been using Sweden (and to a lesser extent, Finland) as a political straw man, painting the country as a place that harboured terrorists and as a risk to Turkey's national security.

If the election is somehow postponed, Erdogan might still need a bogeyman as a distraction to mounting political problems at home, a tactic that may not work so well a second time.

"The NATO news in Finland has not fully taken into account how this massive human catastrophe has changed the Turkish political landscape and discussion," explained Ozan Yanar, a Finnish politician who was born in Turkey, and served as a Greens MP from 2015-2019.

"Right now all the Turkish focus is on these earthquakes, and it will stay on earthquakes for a very long time," Yanar told Euronews.

Yanar said he thinks it unlikely any Turkish politician would try to shift the focus away from any official failings in earthquake preparedness or response, as they would find themselves "in the midst of huge political criticism."

"People are angry Turkey was not ready for this, and the state actions after the earthquakes have been very slow. People would be harshly disappointed and criticise the regime if they would start to speak about NATO, which is not the main topic in Turkey right now," said Yanar, who is running for parliament again in Finland's spring elections.

Rescue workers stand on a collapsed building in Adiyaman, southern Turkey, Monday, Feb. 13, 2023.


What are the chances of 1999-style earthquake diplomacy?

Paul Levin from Stockholm University thinks the chances are low that anything Sweden and Finland do to help with humanitarian aid will move the needle for Turkey on ratifying NATO membership.

"I just dont see any real impact in terms of public relations on the Turkish side," he said bluntly, describing a country currently in turmoil, with a "messy" political situation.

Quite the opposite: "If Erdogan sees he has been hurt by this, and sees he won't be able to win the election, he has a strong incentive to pospone it," said Levin.

"The more desperate he becomes politically, the more appealing those kind of tactics will be. I think he will do just about anything to get re-elected."

That could mean continuing to demonise Stockholm in particular, for failing to deport Kurds that Turkey says are terror suspects.

Ankara wants Finland and Sweden to deport some 130 "terrorists" before it will approve their bids to join NATO. Erdogan declared in January that the Nordic countries must "hand over your terrorists," with Sweden saying Turkey had made demands that could not -- and would not -- be met.

"Maybe it's a bit early to speculate what will happen, but so far I have not seen any of the positive outcomes of diplomacy," said Levin.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Hegseth Warns of Potential Chinese Military Action Against Taiwan
OPEC+ Agrees to Increase Oil Output for Third Consecutive Month
Jamie Dimon Warns U.S. Bond Market Faces Pressure from Rising Debt
Turkey Detains Istanbul Officials Amid Anti-Corruption Crackdown
Taylor Swift Gains Ownership of Her First Six Albums
Bangkok Ranked World's Top City for Remote Work in 2025
Satirical Sketch Sparks Political Spouse Feud in South Korea
Indonesia Quarry Collapse Leaves Multiple Dead and Missing
South Korean Election Video Pulled Amid Misogyny Outcry
Asian Economies Shift Away from US Dollar Amid Trade Tensions
Netflix Investigates Allegations of On-Set Mistreatment in K-Drama Production
US Defence Chief Reaffirms Strong Ties with Singapore Amid Regional Tensions
Vietnam Faces Strategic Dilemma Over China's Mekong River Projects
Malaysia's First AI Preacher Sparks Debate on Islamic Principles
White House Press Secretary Criticizes Harvard Funding, Advocates for Vocational Training
France to Implement Nationwide Smoking Ban in Outdoor Spaces Frequented by Children
Meta and Anduril Collaborate on AI-Driven Military Augmented Reality Systems
Russia's Fossil Fuel Revenues Approach €900 Billion Since Ukraine Invasion
U.S. Justice Department Reduces American Bar Association's Role in Judicial Nominations
U.S. Department of Energy Unveils 'Doudna' Supercomputer to Advance AI Research
U.S. SEC Dismisses Lawsuit Against Binance Amid Regulatory Shift
Alcohol Industry Faces Increased Scrutiny Amid Health Concerns
Italy Faces Population Decline Amid Youth Emigration
U.S. Goods Imports Plunge Nearly 20% Amid Tariff Disruptions
OpenAI Faces Competition from Cheaper AI Rivals
Foreign Tax Provision in U.S. Budget Bill Alarms Investors
Trump Accuses China of Violating Trade Agreement
Gerry Adams Wins Libel Case Against BBC
Russia Accuses Serbia of Supplying Arms to Ukraine
EU Central Bank Pushes to Replace US Dollar with Euro as World’s Main Currency
Chinese Woman Dies After Being Forced to Visit Bank Despite Critical Illness
President Trump Grants Full Pardons to Reality TV Stars Todd and Julie Chrisley
Texas Enacts App Store Accountability Act Mandating Age Verification
U.S. Health Secretary Ends Select COVID-19 Vaccine Recommendations
Vatican Calls for Sustainable Tourism in 2025 Message
Trump Warns Putin Is 'Playing with Fire' Amid Escalating Ukraine Conflict
India and Pakistan Engage Trump-Linked Lobbyists to Influence U.S. Policy
U.S. Halts New Student Visa Interviews Amid Enhanced Security Measures
Trump Administration Cancels $100 Million in Federal Contracts with Harvard
SpaceX Starship Test Flight Ends in Failure, Mars Mission Timeline Uncertain
King Charles Affirms Canadian Sovereignty Amid U.S. Statehood Pressure
Trump Threatens 25% Tariff on iPhones Amid Dispute with Apple CEO
Putin's Helicopter Reportedly Targeted by Ukrainian Drones
Liverpool Car Ramming Incident Leaves Multiple Injured
Australia Faces Immigration Debate Following Labor Party Victory
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Founder Warns Against Trusting Regime in Nuclear Talks
Macron Dismisses Viral Video of Wife's Gesture as Playful Banter
Cleveland Clinic Study Questions Effectiveness of Recent Flu Vaccine
Netanyahu Accuses Starmer of Siding with Hamas
Junior Doctors Threaten Strike Over 4% Pay Offer
×