London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Oct 22, 2025

British economy 'to grow 0.16% at best under US trade deal'

British economy 'to grow 0.16% at best under US trade deal'

Admission lays bare limited benefits of ‘ambitious’ agreement with Donald Trump
The British economy would be at most 0.16% larger by the middle of the next decade under a comprehensive trade deal with the US, the government has admitted, laying bare the limited benefits from striking an agreement with Donald Trump.

In a Department for International Trade (DIT) document, designed to kick-start post-Brexit trade talks with the White House, the government said the British economy stood to benefit from an “ambitious and comprehensive” trade deal worth a fraction of GDP, equivalent to £3.4bn after 15 years.

Prompting warnings from economists that the benefits would be far outstripped by the losses from crashing out of the EU, the official analysis also showed that a more limited trade deal with the US would deliver benefits to the UK economy worth just 0.07% by the middle of the 2030s, or about £1.4bn.

The government had previously estimated the economy would be as much as 7.6% smaller should Britain leave the EU without a deal, and about 4.9% smaller under Boris Johnson’s preferred Canada-style agreement.

Dr Peter Holmes, an academic at the UK Trade Policy Observatory at Sussex University, said: “The numbers are very small. It just goes to show how tiny the gains are from an free trade agreement with the US compared to losing our present arrangements with the EU.”

Outlining the start of deeper talks with Washington, the UK government insisted it would not water down animal welfare standards or put the NHS up for sale to secure a trade deal with Trump.

However, the US trade representative Robert Lighthizer, speaking at an event in Oxford, immediately poured cold water on several aspects of the UK’s negotiating position.

He said he hoped the UK “doesn’t just adopt European standards” that ban the practice of washing chicken in chlorine or acid, and claimed the practice was a “labelling question” not a food health question.

“The US and the UK are not going to go separate ways based on chicken,” he told the Oxford Union.

He accepted that the UK was sensitive about access to the NHS but said it should be open to it. “We would expect that we should have access in the healthcare area to the respect that there’s private section competition,” he said.

He also dismissed the estimates of low economic growth in the UK negotiation paper, saying: “You can be fairly certain that whatever numbers people come up with they are not going to be accurate.”

The DIT document says the government is aiming to reduce tariffs and other barriers to trade, but without compromising standards.

Fears have been expressed that the UK is preparing to water down standards in areas including food production – for example on allowing imports of chlorinated chicken. But the document reiterates the Conservatives’ manifesto commitment that “in all of our trade negotiations, we will not compromise on our high environmental protection, animal welfare and food standards”.

Ending the ban on genetically modified (GM) food in the UK, which could lead to cheaper produce on supermarket shelves, was not explicitly ruled out in the document. Officials are said to be expecting to go into talks with the US backing up the pre-existing UK ban and the government noted GM food was not popular with some of those they consulted with.

It also insists that NHS drugs prices will not be up for negotiation, saying explicitly: “The price the NHS pays for drugs will not be on the table. The services the NHS provides will not be on the table.”

However the US negotiating mandate, published last year, pointed to public services as one area for potential liberalisation.

Talks around securing a new trade deal are expected to take several years, which may see conversations going beyond the president’s “fast track authority” period, which runs until June 2021. This means he can avoid Congress filibustering or amending a treaty struck with another country.

The document is being published on the same day that negotiations with the EU27 in Brussels over the future relationship kick off. Truss had argued the two processes should run simultaneously, believing that would maximise the UK’s leverage.

The government stresses the potential advantages of a deal, including potentially boosting exports of salmon, cheddar cheese and cars, claiming that “removing trade barriers with the US could deliver huge gains”.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
‘Frightening’ First Night in Prison for Sarkozy: Inmates Riot and Shout ‘Little Nicolas’
White House Announces No Imminent Summit Between Trump and Putin
US and Qatar Warn EU of Trade and Energy Risks from Tough Climate Regulation
Apple Challenges EU Digital Markets Act Crackdown in Landmark Court Battle
Nicolas Sarkozy begins five-year prison term at La Santé in Paris
Japan stocks surge to record as Sanae Takaichi becomes Prime Minister
This Is How the 'Heist of the Century' Was Carried Out at the Louvre in Seven Minutes: France Humiliated as Crown with 2,000 Diamonds Vanishes
China Warns UK of ‘Consequences’ After Delay to London Embassy Approval
France’s Wealthy Shift Billions to Luxembourg and Switzerland Amid Tax and Political Turmoil
"Sniper Position": Observation Post Targeting 'Air Force One' Found Before Trump’s Arrival in Florida
Shouting Match at the White House: 'Trump Cursed, Threw Maps, and Told Zelensky – "Putin Will Destroy You"'
Windows’ Own ‘Siri’ Has Arrived: You Can Now Talk to Your Computer
Thailand and Singapore Investigate Cambodian-Based Prince Group as U.S. and U.K. Sanctions Unfold
‘No Kings’ Protests Inflate Numbers — But History Shows Nations Collapse Without Strong Executive Power
Chinese Tech Giants Halt Stablecoin Launches After Beijing’s Regulatory Intervention
Manhattan Jury Holds BNP Paribas Liable for Enabling Sudanese Government Abuses
Trump Orders Immediate Release of Former Congressman George Santos After Commuting Prison Sentence
S&P Downgrades France’s Credit Rating, Citing Soaring Debt and Political Instability
Ofcom Rules BBC’s Gaza Documentary ‘Materially Misleading’ Over Narrator’s Hamas Ties
Diane Keaton’s Cause of Death Revealed as Pneumonia, Family Confirms
Former Lostprophets Frontman Ian Watkins Stabbed to Death in British Prison
"The Tsunami Is Coming, and It’s Massive": The World’s Richest Man Unveils a New AI Vision
Outsider, Heroine, Trailblazer: Diane Keaton Was Always a Little Strange — and Forever One of a Kind
Dramatic Development in the Death of 'Mango' Founder: Billionaire's Son Suspected of Murder
Two Years of Darkness: The Harrowing Testimonies of Israeli Hostages Emerging From Gaza Captivity
EU Moves to Use Frozen Russian Assets to Buy U.S. Weapons for Ukraine
Europe Emerges as the Biggest Casualty in U.S.-China Rare Earth Rivalry
HSBC Confronts Strategic Crossroads as NAB Seeks Only Retail Arm in Australia Exit
U.S. Chamber Sues Trump Over $100,000 H-1B Visa Fee
Shenzhen Expo Spotlights China’s Quantum Step in Semiconductor Self-Reliance
China Accelerates to the Forefront in Global Nuclear Fusion Race
Yachts, Private Jets, and a Picasso Painting: Exposed as 'One of the Largest Frauds in History'
Australia’s Wedgetail Spies Aid NATO Response as Russian MiGs Breach Estonian Airspace
McGowan Urges Chalmers to Cut Spending Over Tax Hike to Close $20 Billion Budget Gap
Victoria Orders Review of Transgender Prison Placement Amid Safety Concerns for Female Inmates
U.S. Treasury Mobilises New $20 Billion Debt Facility to Stabilise Argentina
French Business Leaders Decry Budget as Macron’s Pro-Enterprise Promise Undermined
Trump Claims Modi Pledged India Would End Russian Oil Imports Amid U.S. Tariff Pressure
Surging AI Startup Valuations Fuel Bubble Concerns Among Top Investors
Australian Punter Archie Wilson Tears Up During Nebraska Press Conference, Sparking Conversation on Male Vulnerability
Australia Confirms U.S. Access to Upgraded Submarine Shipyard Under AUKUS Deal
“Firepower” Promised for Ukraine as NATO Ministers Meet — But U.S. Tomahawks Remain Undecided
Brands Confront New Dilemma as Extremists Adopt Fashion Labels
The Sydney Sweeney and Jeans Storm: “The Outcome Surpassed Our Wildest Dreams”
Erika Kirk Delivers Moving Tribute at White House as Trump Awards Charlie Presidential Medal of Freedom
British Food Influencer ‘Big John’ Detained in Australia After Visa Dispute
ScamBodia: The Chinese Fraud Empire Shielded by Cambodia’s Ruling Elite
French PM Suspends Macron’s Pension Reform Until After 2027 in Bid to Stabilize Government
Orange, Bouygues and Free Make €17 Billion Bid for Drahi’s Altice France Telecom Assets
Dutch Government Seizes Chipmaker After U.S. Presses for Removal of Chinese CEO
×