London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Sep 04, 2025

Britain is heading for a hard Brexit. Voters now prefer none at all

Britain is heading for a hard Brexit. Voters now prefer none at all

With trade talks in their final days, Britons’ attitudes to the EU have changed significantly since 2016
THE SIGNALS from the fraught trade negotiations between the EU and Britain seem to change by the hour. Big disagreements remain over fisheries, level-playing-field rules for competition and the governance of any deal. But both sides insist they still want a deal. The two chief negotiators, Michel Barnier for the EU and David Frost for Britain, shuttle frantically between Brussels and London.

Boris Johnson, Britain’s prime minister, and Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, have spoken twice by telephone. Yet, even as December 31st approaches, when Britain’s transition period ends, a deal remains elusive. After the second call, on December 7th, Mr Johnson and Mrs von der Leyen said that “the conditions for finalising an agreement are not there” and that they would meet in Brussels “in the coming days”.

Easily lost in the rush of these last-minute negotiations is the state of public opinion in Britain. In the referendum in June 2016, voters backed the option to leave the EU by 52% to 48%. And in the general election of December 2019 they gave Mr Johnson, a hardline Brexiteer who campaigned to “Get Brexit Done”, a massive majority. That might point towards rising support for the decision to quit the club. Yet Sir John Curtice, the doyen of British pollsters, who has recently updated his opinion surveys for NatCen, a research institute, concludes otherwise.

His analysis suggests that, if a referendum were held today, a clear majority would vote to remain in the EU. Indeed, the share of remainers in the electorate is near its all-time high (see chart). The latest polls put the Remain camp nine points ahead of Leave (by 47% to 38%). As Sir John points out, this is not because many of those who voted to leave have changed their mind, but rather because former “don’t knows” now break almost two-to-one for remaining. The shift also reflects changing demographics: the majority for leaving came overwhelmingly from older voters, so the balance is shifting as younger voters take their place.

In separate polling analysis, Sir John finds that leaving the EU with no trade deal is even more of a minority preference. From his survey of the evidence, he reckons that no more than a fifth of voters favour the idea. He also concludes that support for Scottish independence has risen significantly because of Brexit, which Scotland voted against by a large margin in 2016. Some 51% of Scottish voters now support independence, a rise of five percentage points since the Brexit referendum.

In short, even as Mr Johnson faces a difficult choice between a hard Brexit with a trade deal or an even harder Brexit without one, popular support for the very idea of leaving the EU has declined. And the threat that a hard Brexit poses to the United Kingdom has also increased. Should the consequences of Brexit prove messy after December 31st, Mr Johnson’s already falling popularity with British voters may go down further.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Putin Celebrates ‘Unprecedentedly High’ Ties with China as Gazprom Seals Power of Siberia-2 Deal
China Unveils New Weapons in Grand Military Parade as Xi Hosts Putin and Kim
Queen Camilla’s Teenage Courage: Fended Off Attempted Assault on London Train, New Biography Reveals
Scottish Brothers Set Record in Historic Pacific Row
Rapper Cardi B Cleared of Liability in Los Angeles Civil Assault Trial
Google Avoids Break-Up in U.S. Antitrust Case as Stocks Rise
Couple celebrates 80th wedding anniversary at assisted living facility in Lancaster
Information Warfare in the Age of AI: How Language Models Become Targets and Tools
The White House on LinkedIn Has Changed Their Profile Picture to Donald Trump
"Insulted the Prophet Muhammad": Woman Burned Alive by Angry Mob in Niger State, Nigeria
Trump Responds to Death Rumors – Announces 'Missile City'
Court of Appeal Allows Asylum Seekers to Remain at Essex Hotel Amid Local Tax Boycott Threats
Germany in Turmoil: Ukrainian Teenage Girl Pushed to Death by Illegal Iraqi Migrant
United Krack down on human rights: Graham Linehan Arrested at Heathrow Over Three X Posts, Hospitalised, Released on Bail with Posting Ban
Asian and Middle Eastern Investors Avoid US Markets
Ray Dalio Warns of US Shift to Autocracy
Eurozone Inflation Rises to 2.1% in August
Russia and China Sign New Gas Pipeline Deal
China's Robotics Industry Fuels Export Surge
Suntory Chairman Resigns After Police Probe
Gold Price Hits New All-Time Record
Von der Leyen's Plane Hit by Suspected Russian GPS Interference in an Incident Believed to Be Caused by Russia or by Pro-Peace or by Anti-Corruption European Activists
UK Fintechs Explore Buying US Banks
Greece Suspends 5% of Schools as Birth Rate Drops
Apollo to Launch $5 Billion Sports Investment Vehicle
Bolsonaro Trial Nears Close Amid US-Brazil Tension
European Banks Push for Lower Cross-Border Barriers
Poland's Offshore Wind Sector Attracts Investors
Nvidia Reveals: Two Mystery Customers Account for About 40% of Revenue
Woody Allen: "I Would Be Happy to Direct Trump Again in a Film"
Pickles are the latest craze among Generation Z in the United States.
Deadline Day Delivers Record £125m Isak Move and Donnarumma to City
Nestlé Removes CEO Laurent Freixe Following Undisclosed Relationship with Subordinate
Giuliani Seriously Injured in Accident – Trump to Award Him the Presidential Medal of Freedom
EU is getting aggressive: Four AfD Candidates Die Unexpectedly Ahead of North Rhine-Westphalia Local Elections
Lula and Putin Hold Strategic BRICS Discussions Ahead of Trump–Putin Summit
WhatsApp is rolling out a feature that looks a lot like Telegram.
Investigations Reveal Rise in ‘Sex-for-Rent’ Listings Across Canada Exploiting Vulnerable Tenants
Chinese and Indian Leaders Pursue Amity Amid Global Shifts
European Union Plans for Ukraine Deployment
ECB Warns Against Inflation Complacency
Concerns Over North Cyprus Casino Development
Shipping Companies Look Beyond Chinese Finance
Rural Exodus Fueling European Wildfires
China Hosts Major Security Meeting
Chinese Police Successfully Recover Family's Savings from Livestream Purchases
Germany Marks a Decade Since Migrant Wave with Divisions, Success Stories, and Political Shifts
Liverpool Defeat Arsenal 1–0 with Szoboszlai Free-Kick to Stay Top of Premier League
Prince Harry and King Charles to Meet in First Reunion After 20 Months
Chinese Stock Market Rally Fueled by Domestic Investors
×