London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Oct 22, 2025

Brexual healing? EU and Britain dream of a fresh start in 2023

Brexual healing? EU and Britain dream of a fresh start in 2023

Officials on all sides optimistic of a new year breakthrough.

Three tortuous years after Britain left the EU, hopes are rising on both sides of the English Channel that 2023 will prove a transformative year for the U.K.-EU relationship.

Officials in London and in Brussels acknowledge an urgent need to heal the wounds of Brexit and start to smooth over cracks in the relationship that could be exploited by hostile states.

Relations between the two sides have been under a perennial cloud following Britain’s vote to leave the EU in June 2016 and the subsequent political turbulence in London. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and the departure of Boris Johnson as U.K. prime minister six months later, have shifted the dynamic, creating both an imperative for closer working — on issues such as energy, defense and security — and the political headroom for a fresh start.

Downing Street is now showing a willingness to conclude thorny negotiations over how Gibraltar and Northern Ireland — both British territories with EU land borders — will conduct business with the 27-country bloc. Deals on both issues could be signed off in the early part of 2023.

“There will be a concerted effort to try to get a positive outcome on the Northern Ireland protocol,” said Raoul Ruparel, a former special adviser on Brexit to ex-British Prime Minister Theresa May, in reference to the Brexit deal's controversial protocol for trade between Northern Ireland the rest of the U.K. “I do think the government in the U.K. is now working honestly towards that, and obviously the EU says it’s open to it.”


A tale of two negotiations


Efforts to thrash out an international treaty on Gibraltar’s future relationship with the EU could yield a resolution within the first few weeks of 2023, according to officials on all sides of the negotiation.

A Gibraltar settlement could in turn yield a positive spillover effect into the entrenched Northern Ireland protocol talks, those involved believe, while also removing the risk of Spain withholding a resolution on the latter until the former is resolved.

Successfully landing a Gibraltar deal in 2023 will require smart messaging from both London and Madrid


Successfully landing a Gibraltar deal in 2023 will require smart messaging from both London and Madrid, however, given domestic sensitivities. In the U.K., the European Research Group (ERG) of Euroskeptic Tory MPs fear the agreement may undermine Gibraltar’s historic links to Britain. In Spain, right-wing opposition parties — expected to campaign on a Spanish nationalist ticket in the 2023 general election — are likely to portray any deal struck by the left-wing coalition government in Madrid as a missed opportunity to bring the Rock back under Spanish control.

In Northern Ireland, officials are aiming to deliver some sort of consensus on the main issues by April 10 — the 25th anniversary of the 1998 Good Friday/Belfast Agreement that helped bring peace to the region, and which might be marked by a visit to Europe of U.S. President Joe Biden.

The European Commission this month pushed back for three years the enforcement of new regulatory rules on veterinary medicines in Northern Ireland, creating more space for a deal. And former Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern, who’s been helping negotiations behind the scenes, told the BBC he believes the protocol row “can be sorted out” over the “early weeks of next year.”

Some fear that any swift deal will be just another sticking plaster, however, given British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s limited headroom when managing his Conservative backbenchers, and the considerable gap between London and Brussels in key areas such as food safety checks on goods coming in and out of Northern Ireland.

Ruparel suggested the EU and the U.K. might instead agree an interim agreement in 2023 to help both sides move away from the current deadlock, with Britain’s controversial Northern Ireland Protocol Bill still making its way through the U.K. parliament and with London continuing to unilaterally extend “grace periods” on rules regulating the trading of goods across the Irish Sea.

Such a deal could in turn give the Commission grounds to pause its multiple legal proceedings against the U.K. over alleged breaches of the protocol — which otherwise would go ahead in the new year.


Cooperation vs. competition


Any deal on the protocol would instantly eliminate by far the biggest source of tension between Brussels and London, potentially unlocking cooperation on other policy areas that have been put on ice, such as joint science programs.

British-based researchers and companies are currently blocked from taking part in EU programs such as the massive Horizon Europe science and research scheme, with the Commission refusing to sign off on Britain’s association until the Northern Ireland dispute is resolved.

Tellingly, the U.K. has decided to continue funding successful British applicants to Horizon Europe with its own money for a further three months while talks on the protocol continue, rather than simply ditching association for good and pursuing home-grown alternatives.

More broadly, resolution on the protocol issue would allow a more fluid dialogue between London and Brussels on other global challenges from migration to Russia and China, diplomats believe, while creating space for discussions on further improvements to the Brexit Trade and Cooperation Agreement at its first scheduled review point in 2026.

Ahead of that date, the U.K. will look to enhance trade ties with the EU over the coming year, but through “marginal” improvements rather than a wholesale shift in relations, said Sam Lowe, a trade expert and partner at Flint Global consultancy.

“The politics in the U.K. are not still conducive to stepping away from a hardline approach that views any sort of integration with Europe as betrayal,” he said.

In Northern Ireland, officials are aiming to deliver some sort of consensus on the main issues by April 10


Key areas for trade discussions in 2023 will include the rules of origin for electric vehicles, with EU regulations set to become more restrictive at the beginning of 2024. Lowe predicted the deadline is likely to be extended at the last minute.

The EU and the U.K. could also open discussions to link up their respective emissions trading systems to ensure Britain does not get caught by the new EU carbon border adjustment mechanism (aka CBAM), due to enter into force from 2026. Britain will also want to keep a close eye on any EU response to the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, Ruparel warned.


Clogged parliament


In the meantime, several pieces of planned U.K. legislation could become flashpoints in the new year.

Two proposed laws with the potential to antagonize EU partners are awaiting progress in the House of Commons: the Retained EU Law, aimed at allowing ministers to scrub EU rules from the U.K. statute; and the Bill of Rights, which could include provisions taking Britain out of the European Court of Human Rights, freeing ministers to pursue their policy to offshore asylum seekers to faraway places overseas.

Both pieces of legislation could yet be delayed, however.

“The first few months of next year might be a bit like 'Waiting for Godot,'” chuckled a British opposition Labour party official.

For Labour’s part, 2023 will be about putting more flesh on the bones of its policy of improving relations with the EU, while trying to avoid any accusation of betrayal from those who voted for Brexit. 

Following Labour leader Keir Starmer’s most recent Brexit pitch, Labour officials are now discussing the exact level of alignment they would be ready to accept in order to reduce trade frictions.

The party also wants to improve cross-border mobility for people in the creative industries, as well as a closer security and defense cooperation with the EU, Shadow Cabinet Office Minister Jenny Chapman said.

She stressed that in government, the party would seek swift resolution on any outstanding issues that have not already been resolved by the time of the next election.

“Keir is very clear that if we were to win an election, he doesn’t want us to spend the first three years faffing around with Brussels,” she said, adding: "He wants to get things resolved fairly quickly."

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Apple Challenges EU Digital Markets Act Crackdown in Landmark Court Battle
Nicolas Sarkozy begins five-year prison term at La Santé in Paris
Japan stocks surge to record as Sanae Takaichi becomes Prime Minister
This Is How the 'Heist of the Century' Was Carried Out at the Louvre in Seven Minutes: France Humiliated as Crown with 2,000 Diamonds Vanishes
China Warns UK of ‘Consequences’ After Delay to London Embassy Approval
France’s Wealthy Shift Billions to Luxembourg and Switzerland Amid Tax and Political Turmoil
"Sniper Position": Observation Post Targeting 'Air Force One' Found Before Trump’s Arrival in Florida
Shouting Match at the White House: 'Trump Cursed, Threw Maps, and Told Zelensky – "Putin Will Destroy You"'
Windows’ Own ‘Siri’ Has Arrived: You Can Now Talk to Your Computer
Thailand and Singapore Investigate Cambodian-Based Prince Group as U.S. and U.K. Sanctions Unfold
‘No Kings’ Protests Inflate Numbers — But History Shows Nations Collapse Without Strong Executive Power
Chinese Tech Giants Halt Stablecoin Launches After Beijing’s Regulatory Intervention
Manhattan Jury Holds BNP Paribas Liable for Enabling Sudanese Government Abuses
Trump Orders Immediate Release of Former Congressman George Santos After Commuting Prison Sentence
S&P Downgrades France’s Credit Rating, Citing Soaring Debt and Political Instability
Ofcom Rules BBC’s Gaza Documentary ‘Materially Misleading’ Over Narrator’s Hamas Ties
Diane Keaton’s Cause of Death Revealed as Pneumonia, Family Confirms
Former Lostprophets Frontman Ian Watkins Stabbed to Death in British Prison
"The Tsunami Is Coming, and It’s Massive": The World’s Richest Man Unveils a New AI Vision
Outsider, Heroine, Trailblazer: Diane Keaton Was Always a Little Strange — and Forever One of a Kind
Dramatic Development in the Death of 'Mango' Founder: Billionaire's Son Suspected of Murder
Two Years of Darkness: The Harrowing Testimonies of Israeli Hostages Emerging From Gaza Captivity
EU Moves to Use Frozen Russian Assets to Buy U.S. Weapons for Ukraine
Europe Emerges as the Biggest Casualty in U.S.-China Rare Earth Rivalry
HSBC Confronts Strategic Crossroads as NAB Seeks Only Retail Arm in Australia Exit
U.S. Chamber Sues Trump Over $100,000 H-1B Visa Fee
Shenzhen Expo Spotlights China’s Quantum Step in Semiconductor Self-Reliance
China Accelerates to the Forefront in Global Nuclear Fusion Race
Yachts, Private Jets, and a Picasso Painting: Exposed as 'One of the Largest Frauds in History'
Australia’s Wedgetail Spies Aid NATO Response as Russian MiGs Breach Estonian Airspace
McGowan Urges Chalmers to Cut Spending Over Tax Hike to Close $20 Billion Budget Gap
Victoria Orders Review of Transgender Prison Placement Amid Safety Concerns for Female Inmates
U.S. Treasury Mobilises New $20 Billion Debt Facility to Stabilise Argentina
French Business Leaders Decry Budget as Macron’s Pro-Enterprise Promise Undermined
Trump Claims Modi Pledged India Would End Russian Oil Imports Amid U.S. Tariff Pressure
Surging AI Startup Valuations Fuel Bubble Concerns Among Top Investors
Australian Punter Archie Wilson Tears Up During Nebraska Press Conference, Sparking Conversation on Male Vulnerability
Australia Confirms U.S. Access to Upgraded Submarine Shipyard Under AUKUS Deal
“Firepower” Promised for Ukraine as NATO Ministers Meet — But U.S. Tomahawks Remain Undecided
Brands Confront New Dilemma as Extremists Adopt Fashion Labels
The Sydney Sweeney and Jeans Storm: “The Outcome Surpassed Our Wildest Dreams”
Erika Kirk Delivers Moving Tribute at White House as Trump Awards Charlie Presidential Medal of Freedom
British Food Influencer ‘Big John’ Detained in Australia After Visa Dispute
ScamBodia: The Chinese Fraud Empire Shielded by Cambodia’s Ruling Elite
French PM Suspends Macron’s Pension Reform Until After 2027 in Bid to Stabilize Government
Orange, Bouygues and Free Make €17 Billion Bid for Drahi’s Altice France Telecom Assets
Dutch Government Seizes Chipmaker After U.S. Presses for Removal of Chinese CEO
Bessent Accuses China of Dragging Down Global Economy Amid New Trade Curbs
U.S. Revokes Visas of Foreign Nationals Who ‘Celebrated’ Charlie Kirk’s Assassination
AI and Cybersecurity at Forefront as GITEX Global 2025 Kicks Off in Dubai
×