London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Oct 14, 2026

Brexit Countdown: What To Know As Britain And The EU Fight Over Their Divorce

Brexit Countdown: What To Know As Britain And The EU Fight Over Their Divorce

As the New Year's Eve deadline approaches, the two sides are still trying to negotiate a deal to avert major economic and trade disruptions. Here are some of the top issues at play.

Four and a half years after the landmark Brexit referendum, the United Kingdom is still arguing with the European Union about their future relationship.

Britain officially left the EU in January and has spent the last 11 months in a transitional phase while the two sides try to negotiate a new free trade agreement to avert major disruptions at borders and more economic damage.

The transition ends at midnight Brussels time on Dec. 31.

Here are some of the top issues still to be settled:

What is the latest?


The U.K. is leaving the EU while trying to maintain tariff-free and quota-free access to the massive European market of nearly 450 million consumers. Given that, the two sides are still divided over key issues.

For instance, how much access will European fleets continue to have to British fishing grounds? Fishing accounts for less than 1% of the British economy, but it has a powerful, symbolic value. The nation's fishing grounds also play an outsize role because they easily illustrate the Brexit pledge, "take back control."

Another issue in the current talks: How can the EU retaliate if the U.K. decides to depart from the bloc's regulations in a way that gives British businesses a competitive advantage?

Brexit deadlines have come and gone, but leaders of the main political groups in the European Parliament say they will not be able to ratify a deal unless they have it by midnight Sunday.

Despite the sticking points, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has voiced some cautious optimism. "I cannot tell you whether there will be a deal or not, but I can tell you that there is a path to an agreement," she said Wednesday. "The path may be very narrow, but it is there and it is therefore our responsibility to continue trying."

Why is this so difficult? Is this about something bigger?


It's about different values and different visions. The EU is a club in which members cede some national control in exchange for their people and businesses to access its massive single market. The European Union is also an idea: that 27 member states are better, stronger and safer together, because this economic interdependence is a deterrent to the kind of cataclysmic violence that devastated the Continent in two world wars. Brexiteers, on the other hand, believe in the centrality of the nation-state. They argue that the U.K. will ultimately be more prosperous and more successful when it is free from the regulations and bureaucracy of Brussels, where the EU is headquartered.

Why should Americans or anyone outside Europe care about this?


The EU has many flaws. Its critics see it as hopelessly bureaucratic and something of a gravy train of sinecures for Eurocrats. But it is also a pillar — along with NATO — of the post-World War II architecture that America played a major role in designing. The EU has largely helped keep the peace on the Continent and fostered shared prosperity through near-seamless trade. Weakening or breaking up the EU would be a gift to Western rivals such as Russian President Vladimir Putin.

How will U.K. travel, work and immigration change next year?


Brexit was won, in part, on the pledge to take back control of borders and immigration from the EU. Britons will still be able to travel visa-free to most EU countries for up to 90 days in any 180-day period next year, but in 2022, they will have to apply for visa waivers. British citizens who have already been living in the EU and EU citizens already residing in the U.K. have the right to remain. But immigration will become much more difficult after Brexit on both sides of the English Channel. For instance, EU citizens who want to work in the U.K. will have to apply through a skills-based points system that "aims to attract people who can contribute to the UK's economy."

What happens if the EU and the U.K. can't agree on a new trade deal?


The U.K. will begin trading under World Trade Organization rules, which means both sides will be free to slap tariffs on a variety of products the other produces. This would snarl trade at ports and raise transaction costs. The British government has warned of backups 7,000 trucks long at the Port of Dover. Tariffs are also expected to raise food prices in the U.K. by a small percentage. The head of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, the country's auto trade body, says a "no-deal" Brexit "would be nothing less than catastrophic for the automotive sector, its workers and their families and represent a stunning failure of statecraft."

What if there is a deal?


That would be a relief to most U.K. businesses as there would be less disruption. But there would still be customs checks for the first time in decades, which is expected to slow trade across the English Channel. And even a trade deal comes at a price. Economists estimate it will cost Britain 6.4% of growth in per capita income over the next decade.

Are the U.K. government and businesses ready for this fundamental change in the relationship?


No. British businesses are furious that the government has not spelled out exactly how they need to prepare for these two possibilities. Companies are also frustrated that the government has allowed negotiations to go down to the wire. Businesses require certainty to make investment decisions, and Brexit has been anything but certain.

"I'm so angry about the fact that everything is so last minute," said Sally Jones, who works for EY, the professional services firm, and helps companies prepare for Brexit. "The fact that we've got a situation where U.K. traders will not be able to first access the customs declaration systems until the 23rd of December is crazy."

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham Plans Brussels Talks to Renegotiate Post-Brexit Trade Deal
MI5 Warns of Rising Russian and Iranian Sabotage Threats to British Military Facilities
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham Pledges Closer EU Ties as MI5 Reveals Russian Brexit Interference
UK Orders Security Review Following Reported Killing of Former Politician Ann Widdecombe
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham Meets German Chancellor Merz to Strengthen European Security Ties
Nearly 100,000 NHS Patients Treated in Hospital Corridors as England Braces for Winter Pressures
UK Government Rejects US-Russia Diesel Agreement and Reaffirms Sanctions Against Moscow
UK and Germany Agree to Deepen Security and Economic Cooperation Following Berlin Talks
British Prime Minister Burnham Pledges Closer EU Ties During Visit to Germany
UK Announces New Sanctions on 17 Russia-Linked Entities During Foreign Secretary's Ukraine Visit
UK and Germany Finalize Kensington Treaty to Strengthen Defense and Technology Cooperation
Britain Maintains Diplomatic Mission in East Jerusalem Despite Israeli Closure Deadline
English Councils Push Government to Rethink Proposed Funding Cuts
Scottish Homebuilding Falls to Lowest Level in 11 Years
BBC Chief Matt Brittin Defends Restructuring as Staff Challenge Job Cuts
UK Finance Warns High Energy Costs and Bond Yields Are Complicating Fiscal Outlook
UK Adopts All 44 Recommendations on Regulating AI in Healthcare
Chancellor John Healey Prepares Autumn Budget as Borrowing Costs Strain Public Finances
UK Investigators See Strong Indications of Iranian Link After RAF Fairford Security Operation
Laura Trott Pledges Tighter Controls on Political Activism in UK Classrooms
Welsh Ministers Launch Long-Term Review of North Wales and Anglesey Crossings
Welsh Government Orders 18-Month Study of Road Solutions Around Newport
Reform UK MP Sarah Pochin Faces Scrutiny Over £800,000 Second Home Purchase
British Households Grow More Concerned About Fuel and Energy Prices
NHS Leaders Warn of Rising Winter Pressure on Emergency Departments
Kemi Badenoch Proposes £2.3 Billion Employer National Insurance Cut for Young Workers
Middle East Conflict Could Erase UK Fiscal Headroom, Economists Warn
Manchester City Found Guilty of Multiple Premier League Financial Rule Breaches
UK Security Services Find Strong Indications of Iranian Role in RAF Fairford Incident
Costa Coffee Returns to Operating Profit on Iced Drinks and Menu Changes
Asos Warns Customers After Unauthorized Access to Retail App and Data
Kemi Badenoch Puts Growth and Deregulation at Center of Conservative Conference
Campaigners Warn of Deepening Social Care Crisis for Disabled Adults
Study Finds Rising Early-Onset Cancer Rates Among Adults Under 50 in Britain
UK Coach Operators Warn High Diesel Prices Could Force Route Cuts
FCA Opens Independent Review Into Handling of Epstein-Linked Whistleblower Case
Argentina Vows to Block Falkland Islands Offshore Oil Development
UK Chancellor Prepares Fiscal Measures and Welfare Reforms Ahead of Autumn Budget
Sainsbury’s and Morrisons Explore Potential Multi-Billion-Pound Merger
UK Weighs Tariffs on Chinese Electric Vehicles to Align With European Union
UK Threatens Diplomatic Expulsions Over Planned Closure of East Jerusalem Consulate
UK Energy Price Cap Hits Three-Year High as Middle East Conflict Raises Costs
Seventh Arrest Made in Suspected Terror Plot at RAF Fairford
Systemic Education Collapse Sparks Mass Student Uprisings in France
Green Party Faces Backlash Over Resolution Equating Zionism With Racism
Conservatives Debate Scrapping Environmental Rules for New Homes
Cornwall Insight Warns UK Energy Bills Could Approach £2,000 This Winter
UK Coach Operators Warn of Service Cuts as Diesel Prices Exceed £2
Scottish Parliament Approves £68 Billion Budget With New Tax and Property Measures
FCA Opens Independent Review Into Handling of Epstein Whistleblower
×