London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Jul 08, 2026

Brexit Countdown: What To Know As Britain And The EU Fight Over Their Divorce

Brexit Countdown: What To Know As Britain And The EU Fight Over Their Divorce

As the New Year's Eve deadline approaches, the two sides are still trying to negotiate a deal to avert major economic and trade disruptions. Here are some of the top issues at play.

Four and a half years after the landmark Brexit referendum, the United Kingdom is still arguing with the European Union about their future relationship.

Britain officially left the EU in January and has spent the last 11 months in a transitional phase while the two sides try to negotiate a new free trade agreement to avert major disruptions at borders and more economic damage.

The transition ends at midnight Brussels time on Dec. 31.

Here are some of the top issues still to be settled:

What is the latest?


The U.K. is leaving the EU while trying to maintain tariff-free and quota-free access to the massive European market of nearly 450 million consumers. Given that, the two sides are still divided over key issues.

For instance, how much access will European fleets continue to have to British fishing grounds? Fishing accounts for less than 1% of the British economy, but it has a powerful, symbolic value. The nation's fishing grounds also play an outsize role because they easily illustrate the Brexit pledge, "take back control."

Another issue in the current talks: How can the EU retaliate if the U.K. decides to depart from the bloc's regulations in a way that gives British businesses a competitive advantage?

Brexit deadlines have come and gone, but leaders of the main political groups in the European Parliament say they will not be able to ratify a deal unless they have it by midnight Sunday.

Despite the sticking points, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has voiced some cautious optimism. "I cannot tell you whether there will be a deal or not, but I can tell you that there is a path to an agreement," she said Wednesday. "The path may be very narrow, but it is there and it is therefore our responsibility to continue trying."

Why is this so difficult? Is this about something bigger?


It's about different values and different visions. The EU is a club in which members cede some national control in exchange for their people and businesses to access its massive single market. The European Union is also an idea: that 27 member states are better, stronger and safer together, because this economic interdependence is a deterrent to the kind of cataclysmic violence that devastated the Continent in two world wars. Brexiteers, on the other hand, believe in the centrality of the nation-state. They argue that the U.K. will ultimately be more prosperous and more successful when it is free from the regulations and bureaucracy of Brussels, where the EU is headquartered.

Why should Americans or anyone outside Europe care about this?


The EU has many flaws. Its critics see it as hopelessly bureaucratic and something of a gravy train of sinecures for Eurocrats. But it is also a pillar — along with NATO — of the post-World War II architecture that America played a major role in designing. The EU has largely helped keep the peace on the Continent and fostered shared prosperity through near-seamless trade. Weakening or breaking up the EU would be a gift to Western rivals such as Russian President Vladimir Putin.

How will U.K. travel, work and immigration change next year?


Brexit was won, in part, on the pledge to take back control of borders and immigration from the EU. Britons will still be able to travel visa-free to most EU countries for up to 90 days in any 180-day period next year, but in 2022, they will have to apply for visa waivers. British citizens who have already been living in the EU and EU citizens already residing in the U.K. have the right to remain. But immigration will become much more difficult after Brexit on both sides of the English Channel. For instance, EU citizens who want to work in the U.K. will have to apply through a skills-based points system that "aims to attract people who can contribute to the UK's economy."

What happens if the EU and the U.K. can't agree on a new trade deal?


The U.K. will begin trading under World Trade Organization rules, which means both sides will be free to slap tariffs on a variety of products the other produces. This would snarl trade at ports and raise transaction costs. The British government has warned of backups 7,000 trucks long at the Port of Dover. Tariffs are also expected to raise food prices in the U.K. by a small percentage. The head of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, the country's auto trade body, says a "no-deal" Brexit "would be nothing less than catastrophic for the automotive sector, its workers and their families and represent a stunning failure of statecraft."

What if there is a deal?


That would be a relief to most U.K. businesses as there would be less disruption. But there would still be customs checks for the first time in decades, which is expected to slow trade across the English Channel. And even a trade deal comes at a price. Economists estimate it will cost Britain 6.4% of growth in per capita income over the next decade.

Are the U.K. government and businesses ready for this fundamental change in the relationship?


No. British businesses are furious that the government has not spelled out exactly how they need to prepare for these two possibilities. Companies are also frustrated that the government has allowed negotiations to go down to the wire. Businesses require certainty to make investment decisions, and Brexit has been anything but certain.

"I'm so angry about the fact that everything is so last minute," said Sally Jones, who works for EY, the professional services firm, and helps companies prepare for Brexit. "The fact that we've got a situation where U.K. traders will not be able to first access the customs declaration systems until the 23rd of December is crazy."

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Federal Financial Framework Shifts as Treasury Launches Universal Savings Program for Minors
French Court Allows Le Pen to Run for Presidency, but with an Electronic Tag: "I Will Appeal, and I Will Run"
$1.4 Trillion: The Lawsuit That Could Crush Meta
Europe's Growing Struggle with Extreme Heat and Air Conditioning
UK Daily Briefing: Legal Developments and Social Issues
Political Turmoil and Rising Costs
Anthropic Reengineers Agentic Architecture to Shift Autonomous Workplace Automation to the Cloud
Logic Flaw in Windows 11 Permission Architecture Silently Consumes Hundreds of Gigabytes of Local Storage
Apple Advances Late-Stage Operating Systems with Fourth Beta Deployments
Global Crisis Alert: Escalating Middle East Tensions and UK Political Upheaval
UK Parliament Pushes for Greater Domestic Control Over Critical Technologies
UK Parliament Warns Trade Fair and Exhibition Industry Is Losing Global Competitiveness
Police Launch Murder Investigation After Mother and Two Children Found Dead Near Bedford
British Chambers of Commerce Survey Shows Business Confidence Falls to Post-Pandemic Low
UK Parliament Report Warns Britain Risks Falling Behind in Artificial Intelligence Sovereignty
Office for Budget Responsibility Warns United Kingdom Faces Long-Term Fiscal Pressures
Nigel Farage Resigns as Member of Parliament Amid Financial Scrutiny and Triggers By-Election
Deep Purple Has Released Its Best Album in Decades
UK MPs Criticise Student Loan System as Potentially Mis-Sold to Millions of Borrowers
Policy Groups Propose Bank of England-Backed Solar Loan Scheme for Millions of Homes
UK Health Agency Issues Amber Heat Alerts Across Six Regions as Temperatures Rise
Royal Air Force F-35 Jets Conduct First High North Air Policing Missions From Aircraft Carrier
Major UK Companies Join Government Cybersecurity Pledge Amid Rising Digital Threats
UK Sanctions Russian Operatives Linked to Chemical Weapons Programmes and Poisoning Cases
UK Government Expands Free Breakfast Clubs and Limits School Uniform Costs
UK Water Companies Face Tougher Penalties Under New Environmental Enforcement Rules
UK Universities Warn Funding Cuts Could Damage Skills Pipeline and Economic Growth
NHS Expands Artificial Intelligence Tools to Help Reduce Patient Waiting Lists
NHS Ombudsman Criticises Failures in End-of-Life Communication and Patient Care
NHS Launches Nationwide Vaccination Drive After Rise in Measles Cases
UK Government Introduces New Limits on Foreign-Linked Political Donations
Thames Water Creditors Advance £10 Billion Rescue Plan to Prevent Potential Public Ownership
Andy Burnham Prepares Labour Leadership Platform as Party Faces Post-Starmer Transition
UK Met Office Issues Heatwave Alerts for London and Southern England
Keir Starmer Blocks Earlier World Cup Kick-Off Time for England Match Against Mexico
NHS Digital Transformation and Media Consolidation Highlight UK Policy Priorities
UK Government Pushes Digital Trade Rules to Cut Export Costs for Businesses
Bank of England Plans Leverage Rule Changes to Support Government Bond Market
UK Police Operation Targets Organised Immigration Crime Networks With Hundreds of Arrests
Yvette Cooper Calls for Global AI Rules to Prevent Security Risks
NHS Begins Major AI Expansion Through £10 Billion Digital Investment Programme
UK Government Tightens Rules on Political Donations to Limit Foreign Influence
Keir Starmer Defends UK Defence Spending Plan at NATO Summit in Turkey
Comcast’s Sky Agrees £1.6 Billion Deal to Acquire ITV Media and Entertainment Division
Senior NHS Doctors Vote in Favour of Renewed Strike Action Over Pay Dispute
Andy Burnham Set to Succeed Keir Starmer as Labour Leadership Nominations Open
Microsoft Lays Off 4,800 Employees and Xbox Suffers the Hardest Blow
Office for National Statistics Updates Historical Investment Data Review to Improve Accuracy
Department for Science, Innovation and Technology Highlights Economic Gains From Digital Inclusion
Debate Intensifies Over UK Defence Strategy and Domestic Security Priorities
×