London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Monday, Jan 19, 2026

Brexit Countdown: What To Know As Britain And The EU Fight Over Their Divorce

Brexit Countdown: What To Know As Britain And The EU Fight Over Their Divorce

As the New Year's Eve deadline approaches, the two sides are still trying to negotiate a deal to avert major economic and trade disruptions. Here are some of the top issues at play.

Four and a half years after the landmark Brexit referendum, the United Kingdom is still arguing with the European Union about their future relationship.

Britain officially left the EU in January and has spent the last 11 months in a transitional phase while the two sides try to negotiate a new free trade agreement to avert major disruptions at borders and more economic damage.

The transition ends at midnight Brussels time on Dec. 31.

Here are some of the top issues still to be settled:

What is the latest?


The U.K. is leaving the EU while trying to maintain tariff-free and quota-free access to the massive European market of nearly 450 million consumers. Given that, the two sides are still divided over key issues.

For instance, how much access will European fleets continue to have to British fishing grounds? Fishing accounts for less than 1% of the British economy, but it has a powerful, symbolic value. The nation's fishing grounds also play an outsize role because they easily illustrate the Brexit pledge, "take back control."

Another issue in the current talks: How can the EU retaliate if the U.K. decides to depart from the bloc's regulations in a way that gives British businesses a competitive advantage?

Brexit deadlines have come and gone, but leaders of the main political groups in the European Parliament say they will not be able to ratify a deal unless they have it by midnight Sunday.

Despite the sticking points, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has voiced some cautious optimism. "I cannot tell you whether there will be a deal or not, but I can tell you that there is a path to an agreement," she said Wednesday. "The path may be very narrow, but it is there and it is therefore our responsibility to continue trying."

Why is this so difficult? Is this about something bigger?


It's about different values and different visions. The EU is a club in which members cede some national control in exchange for their people and businesses to access its massive single market. The European Union is also an idea: that 27 member states are better, stronger and safer together, because this economic interdependence is a deterrent to the kind of cataclysmic violence that devastated the Continent in two world wars. Brexiteers, on the other hand, believe in the centrality of the nation-state. They argue that the U.K. will ultimately be more prosperous and more successful when it is free from the regulations and bureaucracy of Brussels, where the EU is headquartered.

Why should Americans or anyone outside Europe care about this?


The EU has many flaws. Its critics see it as hopelessly bureaucratic and something of a gravy train of sinecures for Eurocrats. But it is also a pillar — along with NATO — of the post-World War II architecture that America played a major role in designing. The EU has largely helped keep the peace on the Continent and fostered shared prosperity through near-seamless trade. Weakening or breaking up the EU would be a gift to Western rivals such as Russian President Vladimir Putin.

How will U.K. travel, work and immigration change next year?


Brexit was won, in part, on the pledge to take back control of borders and immigration from the EU. Britons will still be able to travel visa-free to most EU countries for up to 90 days in any 180-day period next year, but in 2022, they will have to apply for visa waivers. British citizens who have already been living in the EU and EU citizens already residing in the U.K. have the right to remain. But immigration will become much more difficult after Brexit on both sides of the English Channel. For instance, EU citizens who want to work in the U.K. will have to apply through a skills-based points system that "aims to attract people who can contribute to the UK's economy."

What happens if the EU and the U.K. can't agree on a new trade deal?


The U.K. will begin trading under World Trade Organization rules, which means both sides will be free to slap tariffs on a variety of products the other produces. This would snarl trade at ports and raise transaction costs. The British government has warned of backups 7,000 trucks long at the Port of Dover. Tariffs are also expected to raise food prices in the U.K. by a small percentage. The head of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, the country's auto trade body, says a "no-deal" Brexit "would be nothing less than catastrophic for the automotive sector, its workers and their families and represent a stunning failure of statecraft."

What if there is a deal?


That would be a relief to most U.K. businesses as there would be less disruption. But there would still be customs checks for the first time in decades, which is expected to slow trade across the English Channel. And even a trade deal comes at a price. Economists estimate it will cost Britain 6.4% of growth in per capita income over the next decade.

Are the U.K. government and businesses ready for this fundamental change in the relationship?


No. British businesses are furious that the government has not spelled out exactly how they need to prepare for these two possibilities. Companies are also frustrated that the government has allowed negotiations to go down to the wire. Businesses require certainty to make investment decisions, and Brexit has been anything but certain.

"I'm so angry about the fact that everything is so last minute," said Sally Jones, who works for EY, the professional services firm, and helps companies prepare for Brexit. "The fact that we've got a situation where U.K. traders will not be able to first access the customs declaration systems until the 23rd of December is crazy."

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
High-Speed Train Collision in Southern Spain Kills at Least Twenty-One and Injures Scores
Meghan Markle May Return to the U.K. This Summer as Security Review Advances
Trump’s Greenland Tariff Threat Sparks EU Response and Risks Deep Transatlantic Rift
Prince Harry’s High Court Battle With Daily Mail Publisher Begins in London
Trump’s Tariff Escalation Presents Complex Challenges for the UK Economy
UK Prime Minister Starmer Rebukes Trump’s Greenland Tariff Strategy as Transatlantic Tensions Rise
Prince Harry’s Last Press Case in UK Court Signals Potential Turning Point in Media and Royal Relations
OpenAI to Begin Advertising in ChatGPT in Strategic Shift to New Revenue Model
GDP Growth Remains the Most Telling Barometer of Britain’s Economic Health
Prince William and Kate Middleton Stay Away as Prince Harry Visits London Amid Lingering Rift
Britain Braces for Colder Weather and Snow Risk as Temperatures Set to Plunge
Mass Protests Erupt as UK Nears Decision on China’s ‘Mega Embassy’ in London
Prince Harry to Return to UK to Testify in High-Profile Media Trial Against Associated Newspapers
Keir Starmer Rejects Trump’s Greenland Tariff Threat as ‘Completely Wrong’
Trump to hit Europe with 10% tariffs until Greenland deal is agreed
Prince Harry Returns to UK High Court as Final Privacy Trial Against Daily Mail Publisher Begins
Britain Confronts a Billion-Pound Wind Energy Paradox Amid Grid Constraints
The graduate 'jobpocalypse': Entry-level jobs are not shrinking. They are disappearing.
Cybercrime, Inc.: When Crime Becomes an Economy. How the World Accidentally Built a Twenty-Trillion-Dollar Criminal Economy
The Return of the Hands: Why the AI Age Is Rewriting the Meaning of “Real Work”
UK PM Kier Scammer Ridicules Tories With "Kamasutra"
Strategic Restraint, Credible Force, and the Discipline of Power
United Kingdom and Norway Endorse NATO’s ‘Arctic Sentry’ Mission Including Greenland
Woman Claiming to Be Freddie Mercury’s Secret Daughter Dies at Forty-Eight After Rare Cancer Battle
UK Launches First-Ever ‘Town of Culture’ Competition to Celebrate Local Stories and Boost Communities
Planned Sale of Shell and Exxon’s UK Gas Assets to Viaro Energy Collapses Amid Regulatory and Market Hurdles
UK Intensifies Arctic Security Engagement as Trump’s Greenland Rhetoric Fuels Allied Concern
Meghan Markle Could Return to the UK for the First Time in Nearly Four Years If Security Is Secured
Meghan Markle Likely to Return to UK Only if Harry Secures Official Security Cover
UAE Restricts Funding for Emiratis to Study in UK Amid Fears Over Muslim Brotherhood Influence
EU Seeks ‘Farage Clause’ in Brexit Reset Talks to Safeguard Long-Term Agreement Stability
Starmer’s Push to Rally Support for Action Against Elon Musk’s X Faces Setback as Canada Shuns Ban
UK Free School Meals Expansion Faces Political and Budgetary Delays
EU Seeks ‘Farage Clause’ in Brexit Reset Talks With Britain
Germany Hit by Major Airport Strikes Disrupting European Travel
Prince Harry Seeks King Charles’ Support to Open Invictus Games on UK Return
Washington Holds Back as Britain and France Signal Willingness to Deploy Troops in Postwar Ukraine
Elon Musk Accuses UK Government of Suppressing Free Speech as X Faces Potential Ban Over AI-Generated Content
Russia Deploys Hypersonic Missile in Strike on Ukraine
OpenAI and SoftBank Commit One Billion Dollars to Energy and Data Centre Supplier
UK Prime Minister Starmer Reaffirms Support for Danish Sovereignty Over Greenland Amid U.S. Pressure
UK Support Bolsters U.S. Seizure of Russian-Flagged Tanker Marinera in Atlantic Strike on Sanctions Evasion
The Claim That Maduro’s Capture and Trial Violate International Law Is Either Legally Illiterate—or Deliberately Deceptive
UK Data Watchdog Probes Elon Musk’s X Over AI-Generated Grok Images Amid Surge in Non-Consensual Outputs
Prince Harry to Return to UK for Court Hearing Without Plans to Meet King Charles III
UK Confirms Support for US Seizure of Russian-Flagged Oil Tanker in North Atlantic
Béla Tarr, Visionary Hungarian Filmmaker, Dies at Seventy After Long Illness
UK and France Pledge Military Hubs Across Ukraine in Post-Ceasefire Security Plan
Prince Harry Poised to Regain UK Security Cover, Clearing Way for Family Visits
UK Junk Food Advertising Ban Faces Major Loophole Allowing Brand-Only Promotions
×