London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Apr 09, 2026

Billionaire David Rubenstein says a recession is coming, tech valuations are set to fall further, and the Fed is going to have to get unemployment to 6% to get inflation down

Billionaire David Rubenstein says a recession is coming, tech valuations are set to fall further, and the Fed is going to have to get unemployment to 6% to get inflation down

The Carlyle Group cofounder says "until we get unemployment to about 6%, we're not likely to get inflation down appreciably."
Billionaire David Rubenstein detailed his market outlook on Tuesday, including predictions for the technology sector, the Federal Reserve's fight against rampant inflation, and a looming recession. 

The Carlyle Group cofounder says that given the current economic conditions a recession is upon us, citing "jacked up" interest rates, which will inevitably slow down gross domestic product growth.

"I suspect the Fed is determined to not make another mistake on inflation," Rubenstein said in an interview with LinkedIn. "I think the Fed generally would say that they misread how much inflation was going to be caused by the $5 trillion injected into the economy by Congress to deal with COVID, and also the quantitative easing impact as well."

He added: "[Inflation] was transitory, they said, but it turns out it wasn't."

If the Fed continues aggressive rate hikes, unemployment will almost certainly rise too, despite a remarkably resilient labor market. Rubenstein predicts easing hawkish monetary tightening, however, won't ease up soon. 

"The Fed now recognizes that it's got its work cut out," Rubenstein said. "The Fed cannot say publicly what I can say, and what others have said, which is that until we get unemployment to about 6%, we're not likely to get inflation down appreciably."

Along with a recession and a rise in unemployment, Rubenstein says tech company valuations are expected to fall further on harsh economic conditions into next year.

"I think some of the tech companies that have changed our lives for the better are very good, and maybe their valuations will come down a bit," he said. "But I think a lot of the valuations for newer tech companies that don't have revenues, let alone earnings, probably are going to come down more than a fair bit."

Rubenstein added: "That's a cautionary note."
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Meghan Markle’s Planned Australia Appearance Sparks Fresh Speculation
Starmer Warns Sustained Effort Needed to Ensure US–Iran Ceasefire Holds
UK to Partner with Shipping Industry to Rebuild Confidence in Strait of Hormuz, Cooper Says
UK Interest Rate Expectations Ease Following US–Iran Ceasefire Agreement
Starmer Signals Major Effort Needed to Fully Reopen Strait of Hormuz During Gulf Visit
UK Fuel Prices Face Ongoing Volatility Amid Global Pressures and Domestic Factors
Kanye West’s Planned Italy Festival Appearance Draws Debate After UK Entry Ban
Smuggling Routes Shift Toward Belgium as Migrant Crossings to UK Evolve
Ceasefire Offers Potential Relief for UK Fuel and Food Prices Amid Ongoing Uncertainty
Iran Conflict Raises Questions Over UK’s Global Influence and Military Preparedness
Senator McConnell Visits Kentucky to Highlight Federal Investment in Local Projects
Kanye West Barred from Entering UK as Legal Grounds Come into Focus
UK Denies Visa to Kanye West After Sponsors Withdraw from Wireless Festival
Trump-Era Forest Service Restructuring Leads to Closure of UK Lab Focused on Kentucky Woodland Health
Foreign Students in the UK Describe Harsh Living Conditions and Financial Pressures
Reform UK Proposes Visa Restrictions on Nations Pursuing Reparations Claims
Public Reaction Divides Over UK Decision to Bar Kanye West
Calls Grow for UK to Review US Base Access Following Concerns Over Escalating Rhetoric
UK Indicates It Will Not Permit Use of Its Bases for Potential US Strikes on Iran’s Energy Infrastructure
UK Prime Minister Defends Decision to Bar Kanye West, Questions Festival Booking
UK Accelerates Efforts to Harmonise Medical Technology Rules with United States
Wireless Festival Cancelled After Kanye West Denied Entry to the United Kingdom
Australia’s most decorated living soldier was arrested at Sydney Airport and charged with five counts of war-crime murder for the killing of unarmed Afghan civilians
The CIA’s Secret Technology That Can Find You by Your Heartbeat Successfully Locates Downed Airman
Operation Europe: Trump Deploys Vance to Hungary to Save the EU
King Charles Faces Criticism From Some UK Christians Over Absence of Easter Message
Former UK Defence Secretary Raises Concerns Over Ability to Counter Iran Missile Threat
UK Signals Non-Involvement in Iran Conflict as Trump Reasserts Firm Deterrence Stance
US and UK Strengthen Medical Device Cooperation Following Tariff Removal
Trump Backs Steve Hilton for California Governor, Highlighting Reform Agenda
UK Seeks Closer Ties With Anthropic as AI Policy Divergence Emerges Across Atlantic
Experts Warn of Evolving Extremism After Teens Arrested in UK Ambulance Arson Case
UK Convenes Talks to Safeguard Shipping Through Strait of Hormuz After Conflict Escalation
Trump Highlights Strong Leadership in Critique of UK Stance on Iran
UK Authorities Review Kanye West’s Entry Status Following Festival Backlash
UK Considers Deploying Aircraft Carrier for US Independence Day Celebrations Amid Renewed Transatlantic Focus
United Kingdom Moves to Attract AI Firm Anthropic Amid Tensions with US Defense Officials
RAF Intercepts Iranian Drones in Middle East to Defend Allied Security Interests
Labour Signals Shift on Foie Gras and Fur Restrictions to Advance EU Trade Talks
Seven Arrested Near RAF Base as UK Authorities Respond to Protest Activity
Economic Pressures Mount as Analysts Warn UK Growth Is Being Constrained by Policy Burdens
UK Green Party’s Push for Church-State Separation Sparks Debate Over National Identity
Strategic Island Emerges as Growing Challenge for United States and United Kingdom Defense Planning
Pepsi Pulls Sponsorship from UK Festival Following Backlash Linked to Kanye West
Signs Emerge of Declining Enthusiasm for Social Media in the United Kingdom
Security Alert Raised Ahead of Meghan Markle’s Planned Visit to Australia
UK Food Halls Defy Hospitality Slowdown, Emerging as Bright Spot in Challenging Market
UK Sets Firm Conditions for Military Action, Insisting on Legal Mandate and Clear Strategy
UK Medicines Regulator Launches Probe into Peptide Clinics Over Health Claims
New North Sea Drilling Unlikely to Significantly Cut UK Gas Imports, Analysis Finds
×