London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Sunday, Feb 01, 2026

Billionaire David Rubenstein says a recession is coming, tech valuations are set to fall further, and the Fed is going to have to get unemployment to 6% to get inflation down

Billionaire David Rubenstein says a recession is coming, tech valuations are set to fall further, and the Fed is going to have to get unemployment to 6% to get inflation down

The Carlyle Group cofounder says "until we get unemployment to about 6%, we're not likely to get inflation down appreciably."
Billionaire David Rubenstein detailed his market outlook on Tuesday, including predictions for the technology sector, the Federal Reserve's fight against rampant inflation, and a looming recession. 

The Carlyle Group cofounder says that given the current economic conditions a recession is upon us, citing "jacked up" interest rates, which will inevitably slow down gross domestic product growth.

"I suspect the Fed is determined to not make another mistake on inflation," Rubenstein said in an interview with LinkedIn. "I think the Fed generally would say that they misread how much inflation was going to be caused by the $5 trillion injected into the economy by Congress to deal with COVID, and also the quantitative easing impact as well."

He added: "[Inflation] was transitory, they said, but it turns out it wasn't."

If the Fed continues aggressive rate hikes, unemployment will almost certainly rise too, despite a remarkably resilient labor market. Rubenstein predicts easing hawkish monetary tightening, however, won't ease up soon. 

"The Fed now recognizes that it's got its work cut out," Rubenstein said. "The Fed cannot say publicly what I can say, and what others have said, which is that until we get unemployment to about 6%, we're not likely to get inflation down appreciably."

Along with a recession and a rise in unemployment, Rubenstein says tech company valuations are expected to fall further on harsh economic conditions into next year.

"I think some of the tech companies that have changed our lives for the better are very good, and maybe their valuations will come down a bit," he said. "But I think a lot of the valuations for newer tech companies that don't have revenues, let alone earnings, probably are going to come down more than a fair bit."

Rubenstein added: "That's a cautionary note."
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Starmer Arrives in Shanghai to Promote British Trade and Investment
Harry Styles, Anthony Joshua and Premier League Stars Among UK’s Top Taxpayers
New Epstein Files Include Images of Former Prince Andrew Kneeling Over Unidentified Woman
Starmer Urges Former Prince Andrew to Testify Before US Congress About Epstein Ties
Starmer Extends Invitation to Japan’s Prime Minister After Strategic Tokyo Talks
Skupski and Harrison Clinch Australian Open Men’s Doubles Title in Melbourne
DOJ Unveils Millions of Epstein Files, Fueling Global Scrutiny of Elite Networks
France Begins Phasing Out Zoom and Microsoft Teams to Advance Digital Sovereignty
China Lifts Sanctions on British MPs and Peers After Starmer Xi Talks in Beijing
Trump Nominates Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair to Reorient U.S. Monetary Policy Toward Pro-Growth Interest Rates
AstraZeneca Announces £11bn China Investment After Scaling Back UK Expansion Plans
Starmer and Xi Forge Warming UK-China Ties in Beijing Amid Strategic Reset
Tech Market Shifts and AI Investment Surge Drive Global Innovation and Layoffs
Markets Jolt as AI Spending, US Policy Shifts, and Global Security Moves Drive New Volatility
U.S. Signals Potential Decertification of Canadian Aircraft as Bilateral Tensions Escalate
Former South Korean First Lady Kim Keon Hee Sentenced to 20 Months for Bribery
Tesla Ends Model S and X Production and Sends $2 Billion to xAI as 2025 Revenue Declines
China Executes 11 Members of the Ming Clan in Cross-Border Scam Case Linked to Myanmar’s Lawkai
Trump Administration Officials Held Talks With Group Advocating Alberta’s Independence
Starmer Signals UK Push for a More ‘Sophisticated’ Relationship With China in Talks With Xi
Shopping Chatbots Move From Advice to Checkout as Walmart Pushes Faster Than Amazon
Starmer Seeks Economic Gains From China Visit While Navigating US Diplomatic Sensitivities
Starmer Says China Visit Will Deliver Economic Benefits as He Prepares to Meet Xi Jinping
UK Prime Minister Starmer Arrives in China to Bolster Trade and Warn Firms of Strategic Opportunities
The AI Hiring Doom Loop — Algorithmic Recruiting Filters Out Top Talent and Rewards Average or Fake Candidates
Amazon to Cut 16,000 Corporate Jobs After Earlier 14,000 Reduction, Citing Streamlining and AI Investment
Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rate at 3.75% as Powell Faces DOJ Criminal Investigation During 2026 Decision
Putin’s Four-Year Ukraine Invasion Cost: Russia’s Mass Casualty Attrition and the Donbas Security-Guarantee Tradeoff
Wall Street Bets on Strong US Growth and Currency Moves as Dollar Slips After Trump Comments
UK Prime Minister Traveled to China Using Temporary Phones and Laptops to Limit Espionage Risks
Google’s $68 Million Voice Assistant Settlement Exposes Incentives That Reward Over-Collection
Kim Kardashian Admits Faking Paparazzi Visit to Britney Spears for Fame in Early 2000s
UPS to Cut 30,000 More Jobs by 2026 Amid Shift to High-Margin Deliveries
France Plans to Replace Teams and Zoom Across Government With Homegrown Visio by 2027
Trump Removes Minneapolis Deportation Operation Commander After Fatal Shooting of Protester
Iran’s Elite Wealth Abroad and Sanctions Leakage: How Offshore Luxury Sustains Regime Resilience
U.S. Central Command Announces Regional Air Exercise as Iran Unveils Drone Carrier Footage
Four Arrested in Andhra Pradesh Over Alleged HIV-Contaminated Injection Attack on Doctor
Hot Drinks, Hidden Particles: How Disposable Cups Quietly Increase Microplastic Exposure
UK Banks Pledge £11 Billion Lending Package to Help Firms Expand Overseas
Suella Braverman Defects to Reform UK, Accusing Conservatives of Betrayal on Core Policies
Melania Trump Documentary Sees Limited Box Office Traction in UK Cinemas
Meta and EssilorLuxottica Ray-Ban Smart Glasses and the Non-Consensual Public Recording Economy
WhatsApp Develops New Meta AI Features to Enhance User Control
Germany Considers Gold Reserves Amidst Rising Tensions with the U.S.
Michael Schumacher Shows Significant Improvement in Health Status
Greenland’s NATO Stress Test: Coercion, Credibility, and the New Arctic Bargaining Game
Diego Garcia and the Chagos Dispute: When Decolonization Collides With Alliance Power
Trump Claims “Total” U.S. Access to Greenland as NATO Weighs Arctic Basing Rights and Deterrence
Air France and KLM Suspend Multiple Middle East Routes as Regional Tensions Disrupt Aviation
×