London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Jan 29, 2026

Billionaire David Rubenstein says a recession is coming, tech valuations are set to fall further, and the Fed is going to have to get unemployment to 6% to get inflation down

Billionaire David Rubenstein says a recession is coming, tech valuations are set to fall further, and the Fed is going to have to get unemployment to 6% to get inflation down

The Carlyle Group cofounder says "until we get unemployment to about 6%, we're not likely to get inflation down appreciably."
Billionaire David Rubenstein detailed his market outlook on Tuesday, including predictions for the technology sector, the Federal Reserve's fight against rampant inflation, and a looming recession. 

The Carlyle Group cofounder says that given the current economic conditions a recession is upon us, citing "jacked up" interest rates, which will inevitably slow down gross domestic product growth.

"I suspect the Fed is determined to not make another mistake on inflation," Rubenstein said in an interview with LinkedIn. "I think the Fed generally would say that they misread how much inflation was going to be caused by the $5 trillion injected into the economy by Congress to deal with COVID, and also the quantitative easing impact as well."

He added: "[Inflation] was transitory, they said, but it turns out it wasn't."

If the Fed continues aggressive rate hikes, unemployment will almost certainly rise too, despite a remarkably resilient labor market. Rubenstein predicts easing hawkish monetary tightening, however, won't ease up soon. 

"The Fed now recognizes that it's got its work cut out," Rubenstein said. "The Fed cannot say publicly what I can say, and what others have said, which is that until we get unemployment to about 6%, we're not likely to get inflation down appreciably."

Along with a recession and a rise in unemployment, Rubenstein says tech company valuations are expected to fall further on harsh economic conditions into next year.

"I think some of the tech companies that have changed our lives for the better are very good, and maybe their valuations will come down a bit," he said. "But I think a lot of the valuations for newer tech companies that don't have revenues, let alone earnings, probably are going to come down more than a fair bit."

Rubenstein added: "That's a cautionary note."
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Former South Korean First Lady Kim Keon Hee Sentenced to 20 Months for Bribery
Tesla Ends Model S and X Production and Sends $2 Billion to xAI as 2025 Revenue Declines
China Executes 11 Members of the Ming Clan in Cross-Border Scam Case Linked to Myanmar’s Lawkai
Trump Administration Officials Held Talks With Group Advocating Alberta’s Independence
Starmer Signals UK Push for a More ‘Sophisticated’ Relationship With China in Talks With Xi
Shopping Chatbots Move From Advice to Checkout as Walmart Pushes Faster Than Amazon
Starmer Seeks Economic Gains From China Visit While Navigating US Diplomatic Sensitivities
Starmer Says China Visit Will Deliver Economic Benefits as He Prepares to Meet Xi Jinping
UK Prime Minister Starmer Arrives in China to Bolster Trade and Warn Firms of Strategic Opportunities
The AI Hiring Doom Loop — Algorithmic Recruiting Filters Out Top Talent and Rewards Average or Fake Candidates
Amazon to Cut 16,000 Corporate Jobs After Earlier 14,000 Reduction, Citing Streamlining and AI Investment
Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rate at 3.75% as Powell Faces DOJ Criminal Investigation During 2026 Decision
Putin’s Four-Year Ukraine Invasion Cost: Russia’s Mass Casualty Attrition and the Donbas Security-Guarantee Tradeoff
Wall Street Bets on Strong US Growth and Currency Moves as Dollar Slips After Trump Comments
UK Prime Minister Traveled to China Using Temporary Phones and Laptops to Limit Espionage Risks
Google’s $68 Million Voice Assistant Settlement Exposes Incentives That Reward Over-Collection
Kim Kardashian Admits Faking Paparazzi Visit to Britney Spears for Fame in Early 2000s
UPS to Cut 30,000 More Jobs by 2026 Amid Shift to High-Margin Deliveries
France Plans to Replace Teams and Zoom Across Government With Homegrown Visio by 2027
Trump Removes Minneapolis Deportation Operation Commander After Fatal Shooting of Protester
Iran’s Elite Wealth Abroad and Sanctions Leakage: How Offshore Luxury Sustains Regime Resilience
U.S. Central Command Announces Regional Air Exercise as Iran Unveils Drone Carrier Footage
Four Arrested in Andhra Pradesh Over Alleged HIV-Contaminated Injection Attack on Doctor
Hot Drinks, Hidden Particles: How Disposable Cups Quietly Increase Microplastic Exposure
UK Banks Pledge £11 Billion Lending Package to Help Firms Expand Overseas
Suella Braverman Defects to Reform UK, Accusing Conservatives of Betrayal on Core Policies
Melania Trump Documentary Sees Limited Box Office Traction in UK Cinemas
Meta and EssilorLuxottica Ray-Ban Smart Glasses and the Non-Consensual Public Recording Economy
WhatsApp Develops New Meta AI Features to Enhance User Control
Germany Considers Gold Reserves Amidst Rising Tensions with the U.S.
Michael Schumacher Shows Significant Improvement in Health Status
Greenland’s NATO Stress Test: Coercion, Credibility, and the New Arctic Bargaining Game
Diego Garcia and the Chagos Dispute: When Decolonization Collides With Alliance Power
Trump Claims “Total” U.S. Access to Greenland as NATO Weighs Arctic Basing Rights and Deterrence
Air France and KLM Suspend Multiple Middle East Routes as Regional Tensions Disrupt Aviation
U.S. winter storm triggers 13,000-plus flight cancellations and 160,000 power outages
Poland delays euro adoption as Domański cites $1tn economy and zloty advantage
White House: Trump warns Canada of 100% tariff if Carney finalizes China trade deal
PLA opens CMC probe of Zhang Youxia, Liu Zhenli over Xi authority and discipline violations
ICE and DHS immigration raids in Minneapolis: the use-of-force accountability crisis in mass deportation enforcement
UK’s Starmer and Trump Agree on Urgent Need to Bolster Arctic Security
Starmer Breaks Diplomatic Restraint With Firm Rebuke of Trump, Seizing Chance to Advocate for Europe
UK Finance Minister Reeves to Join Starmer on China Visit to Bolster Trade and Economic Ties
Prince Harry Says Sacrifices of NATO Forces in Afghanistan Deserve ‘Respect’ After Trump Remarks
Barron Trump Emerges as Key Remote Witness in UK Assault and Rape Trial
Nigel Farage Attended Davos 2026 Using HP Trust Delegate Pass Linked to Sasan Ghandehari
Gold Jumps More Than 8% in a Week as the Dollar Slides Amid Greenland Tariff Dispute
BlackRock Executive Rick Rieder Emerges as Leading Contender to Succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair
Boston Dynamics Atlas humanoid robot and LG CLOiD home robot: the platform lock-in fight to control Physical AI
United States under President Donald Trump completes withdrawal from the World Health Organization: health sovereignty versus global outbreak early-warning access
×