London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Tuesday, Oct 21, 2025

Biden v Trump: a roadmap to the 2024 presidential election

Biden v Trump: a roadmap to the 2024 presidential election

For now, a rerun of the 2020 race looks almost certain. With months to go till the first primaries, who is best placed to win?

Republican and Democratic voters have to wait nearly a year to decide on their candidates, but the US's 2024 presidential election campaign is already well underway.

So far, the odds are in favour of a head-to-head race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the first election since 1892 to pit a former president against a sitting one. So what can we expect, and who might come out on top?

Biden officially launched his reelection bid last month, rallying Americans to join him with a new slogan: "let’s finish the job". Meanwhile, on the other side, polls, fundraising numbers and endorsements all seem to point one way: while he already faces primary challengers as well as serious legal problems, Trump is set to win the Republican nomination.

He was recently indicted by a New York grand jury over alleged hush money payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels, but according to one recent poll, 68% of Republican primary voters consider the investigations into his conduct "politically motivated" and agree that "we must support him".

The former president is also ahead when it comes to money. The Trump campaign reported a $15.4 million fundraising haul for the first quarter of the year, putting him ahead of the two other declared GOP candidates. "Anti-woke" entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy declared $11.4 million, a sum overwhelmingly sourced from his personal wealth; Trump's former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, meanwhile, initially claimed to have raised a similar figure, but ultimately turned out to have pulled in just $5.1 million.

Crucially, Trump's numbers do not reflect the effect of his recent indictment, or the civil suit that saw him found liable for sexual assault. In the two weeks after the Stormy Daniels indictment, the Trump campaign raised an additional $15.4 million, receiving more than 312,000 donations – 97% of which were less than $200.


Establishment blessing


If money matters, so do endorsements. While support for Trump is far from unanimous, the GOP's increasingly extreme Washington leaders are so far still backing him. Haley has not attracted much in the way of top-tier endorsements, while other possible candidates yet to jump in – former vice president Mike Pence, for one – show little sign of gathering steam.

It remains possible that popular Florida Governor Ron DeSantis could pose a threat to Trump’s nomination. But while he has long been seen as by far Trump's most significant challenger, the chatter about his chances against the former president has died down noticeably in recent months.

Biden’s campaign announcement, meanwhile, has hardly generated a wave of enthusiasm. According to an NBC poll, 70% of all Americans, including 51% of Democrats, think that he should not run for a second term. And yet, there is no sign of any mainstream Democrat stepping forward to challenge him.


There are two other candidates running against him so far: spiritual author Marianne Williamson, who campaigned unsuccessfully in the 2020 contest, and longtime anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist Robert F Kennedy Jr, whose father was murdered while campaigning for president in 1968. But both have been firmly frozen out by the party establishment, and so far, neither appears to pose any meaningful threat to Biden's chances; there is no indication the president will appear alongside them at any TV debates.

Even with no mainstream Democratic challenger on the horizon, Biden's nomination is hardly a sure thing. Forced to compete on the gruelling campaign trail while also holding the presidency, the octogenarian Biden's verbal and physical performance may yet raise further doubts over whether he is fit for the job.

But while combination of consistently discouraging polls, constant Republican allegations of corruption involving the Biden family and doubts about Biden's ability to serve out a full second term leave at least some space for an alternative scenario to play out, there remains no indication of what that would scenario would be.

So assuming that a 2020 rematch is on the cards, who would be in a better position to win the White House?


Class consciousness


Recent polls suggest the rematch would be a tight race, but the road ahead is still long and full of uncertainties. What seems clear, however, is that both candidates will revert to Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign slogan: “It’s the economy, stupid”. And while Biden is currently insisting that his economic plan is working, economic gut feelings could still work in the GOP’s favour.

While a lot can and will happen over the next 17 months, the economic outlook is far from encouraging, as the risk of recession remains high. Record-high inflation has been punishing Americans for the best part of two years: according to a recent survey by McLaughlin & associates, 65% of voters believe the US is heading in the wrong direction, and 79% say their household finances have been adversely affected by the economy.

Moreover, an unprecedented debt default – with potentially devastating consequences for the American economy - remains a possibility, with Biden seemingly unwilling to compromise with Republican demands in exchange for a vote to lift the debt ceiling.

The GOP's opportunity here stems from the fact that the party's base has substantially changed, rebalancing away from wealthy "country club" suburbanites and instead relying on a culturally conservative and economically populist middle- and working-class Americans – that is, people hit hardest by the economy's problems.

By way of evidence, nine of the ten wealthiest congressional districts are now represented by Democrats, while Republicans represent 64% of the congressional districts whose median incomes sit below the national median.

Yet even with an advantage on the economic front, in order to secure a majority, Trump would have to balance the claims of his conservative base without alienating independent voters. This would demand a change in style that the former president may not be willing to make, if he's even capable of doing so.


Swing states


Meanwhile, America's electoral geography has changed over the past decade, with Democrats making advances in urban centres and Republicans cementing their advantage in rural areas.

The crucial Electoral College battlegrounds have also changed. Coming off the last two elections, former swing states Ohio, Iowa and even Florida are now firmly in the red column. Eyes are now turned to the the onetime Democratic “blue wall” of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, three states that went for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020 – both times by extremely narrow margins.

And regardless of who the candidates are, the economic and geographical realignment of the two party's electoral coalitions means the 2024 election will be decided by suburban voters in those same three states, along with the rapidly liberalising battlegrounds of Arizona and Georgia – two states that locked up Biden's victory in 2020.

Comments

Oh ya 2 year ago
Tough call. You have 1 who should be living in Shady Acres because his mind is gone or in jail because of the now proven bribes and the other has a ego problem and will never admit or take responsibility for his operation warp speed clot shots which are also a proven fact. The USA needs better leaders than the choices that they have now., soon it will be a 3rd world country with the way the restcof the world is turning away from the USD, Petro dollar.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
This Is How the 'Heist of the Century' Was Carried Out at the Louvre in Seven Minutes: France Humiliated as Crown with 2,000 Diamonds Vanishes
China Warns UK of ‘Consequences’ After Delay to London Embassy Approval
France’s Wealthy Shift Billions to Luxembourg and Switzerland Amid Tax and Political Turmoil
"Sniper Position": Observation Post Targeting 'Air Force One' Found Before Trump’s Arrival in Florida
Shouting Match at the White House: 'Trump Cursed, Threw Maps, and Told Zelensky – "Putin Will Destroy You"'
Windows’ Own ‘Siri’ Has Arrived: You Can Now Talk to Your Computer
Thailand and Singapore Investigate Cambodian-Based Prince Group as U.S. and U.K. Sanctions Unfold
‘No Kings’ Protests Inflate Numbers — But History Shows Nations Collapse Without Strong Executive Power
Chinese Tech Giants Halt Stablecoin Launches After Beijing’s Regulatory Intervention
Manhattan Jury Holds BNP Paribas Liable for Enabling Sudanese Government Abuses
Trump Orders Immediate Release of Former Congressman George Santos After Commuting Prison Sentence
S&P Downgrades France’s Credit Rating, Citing Soaring Debt and Political Instability
Ofcom Rules BBC’s Gaza Documentary ‘Materially Misleading’ Over Narrator’s Hamas Ties
Diane Keaton’s Cause of Death Revealed as Pneumonia, Family Confirms
Former Lostprophets Frontman Ian Watkins Stabbed to Death in British Prison
"The Tsunami Is Coming, and It’s Massive": The World’s Richest Man Unveils a New AI Vision
Outsider, Heroine, Trailblazer: Diane Keaton Was Always a Little Strange — and Forever One of a Kind
Dramatic Development in the Death of 'Mango' Founder: Billionaire's Son Suspected of Murder
Two Years of Darkness: The Harrowing Testimonies of Israeli Hostages Emerging From Gaza Captivity
EU Moves to Use Frozen Russian Assets to Buy U.S. Weapons for Ukraine
Europe Emerges as the Biggest Casualty in U.S.-China Rare Earth Rivalry
HSBC Confronts Strategic Crossroads as NAB Seeks Only Retail Arm in Australia Exit
U.S. Chamber Sues Trump Over $100,000 H-1B Visa Fee
Shenzhen Expo Spotlights China’s Quantum Step in Semiconductor Self-Reliance
China Accelerates to the Forefront in Global Nuclear Fusion Race
Yachts, Private Jets, and a Picasso Painting: Exposed as 'One of the Largest Frauds in History'
Australia’s Wedgetail Spies Aid NATO Response as Russian MiGs Breach Estonian Airspace
McGowan Urges Chalmers to Cut Spending Over Tax Hike to Close $20 Billion Budget Gap
Victoria Orders Review of Transgender Prison Placement Amid Safety Concerns for Female Inmates
U.S. Treasury Mobilises New $20 Billion Debt Facility to Stabilise Argentina
French Business Leaders Decry Budget as Macron’s Pro-Enterprise Promise Undermined
Trump Claims Modi Pledged India Would End Russian Oil Imports Amid U.S. Tariff Pressure
Surging AI Startup Valuations Fuel Bubble Concerns Among Top Investors
Australian Punter Archie Wilson Tears Up During Nebraska Press Conference, Sparking Conversation on Male Vulnerability
Australia Confirms U.S. Access to Upgraded Submarine Shipyard Under AUKUS Deal
“Firepower” Promised for Ukraine as NATO Ministers Meet — But U.S. Tomahawks Remain Undecided
Brands Confront New Dilemma as Extremists Adopt Fashion Labels
The Sydney Sweeney and Jeans Storm: “The Outcome Surpassed Our Wildest Dreams”
Erika Kirk Delivers Moving Tribute at White House as Trump Awards Charlie Presidential Medal of Freedom
British Food Influencer ‘Big John’ Detained in Australia After Visa Dispute
ScamBodia: The Chinese Fraud Empire Shielded by Cambodia’s Ruling Elite
French PM Suspends Macron’s Pension Reform Until After 2027 in Bid to Stabilize Government
Orange, Bouygues and Free Make €17 Billion Bid for Drahi’s Altice France Telecom Assets
Dutch Government Seizes Chipmaker After U.S. Presses for Removal of Chinese CEO
Bessent Accuses China of Dragging Down Global Economy Amid New Trade Curbs
U.S. Revokes Visas of Foreign Nationals Who ‘Celebrated’ Charlie Kirk’s Assassination
AI and Cybersecurity at Forefront as GITEX Global 2025 Kicks Off in Dubai
DJI Loses Appeal to Remove Pentagon’s ‘Chinese Military Company’ Label
EU Deploys New Biometric Entry/Exit System: What Non-EU Travelers Must Know
Australian Prime Minister’s Private Number Exposed Through AI Contact Scraper
×